"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 2004 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 2004 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 120, Chris Gomez 19, Josh Phelps 12,
Howie Clark 11, Dave Berg 7, Eric Crozier 5
Second Base: Orlando Hudson 133, Frank Menechino 29, Dave Berg 4,
Chris Gomez 3, Howie Clark 1
Shortstop: Chris Gomez 77, Chris Woodward 64, Russ Adams 21,
Frank Menechino 14
Third Base: Eric Hinske 153, Frank Menechino 7, Chris Gomez 5,
Dave Berg 3, Howie Clark 1
Left Field: Reed Johnson 57, Frank Catalanotto 41, Gabe Gross 38,
Dave Berg 31, Howie Clark 9, Simon Pond 6, Chad Hermansen 4
Center Field: Vernon Wells 131, Reed Johnson 33, Alex Rios 3
Right Field: Alex Rios 108, Reed Johnson 53, Howie Clark 11,
Simon Pond 3, Dave Berg 1
Catcher: Gregg Zaun 97, Kevin Cash 60, Guillermo Quiroz 15,
Greg Myers 4, Bobby Estalella 3
Starting Pitcher: Ted Lilly 32, Miguel Batista 31, Roy Halladay 21,
Josh Towers 21, David Bush 16, Pat Hentgen 16,
Justin Miller 15, Sean Douglass 3, Jason Kershner 2,
Ryan Glynn 2, Gustavo Chacin 2
Relief Pitcher: Jason Frasor 63, Justin Speier 62, Kerr Ligtenberg 57,
Vinnie Chulk 47, Terry Adams 42, Bob File 24,
Jason Kershner 22, Kevin Frederick 22, Mike Nakamura 19,
Aquilino Lopez 18, V Delossantos 17, Sean Douglass 11,
Miguel Batista 7, Ryan Glynn 4, Justin Miller 4,
Brandon League 3, Adam Peterson 3, Dave Maurer 3,
Pat Hentgen 2, Frank Menechino 1
Designated Hitter: Josh Phelps 65, Frank Catalanotto 29, Frank Menechino 19,
Carlos Delgado 8, Eric Crozier 8, Dave Berg 7,
Gabe Gross 7, Gregg Zaun 6, Simon Pond 6, Chris Gomez 5,
Reed Johnson 4, Howie Clark 4, Vernon Wells 3,
Chris Woodward 2, Bobby Estalella 2, Guillermo Quiroz 2,
Greg Myers 1, Eric Hinske 1
Manager: Carlos Tosca 47-64 .423, John Gibbons 20-30 .400
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2004 in Context
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A team-wide offensive collapse gave the Jays their worst season since the
world champions finished with baseball's worst record in 1995:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Boston 5.88 | ( 1) Minnesota 4.36 | ( 1) NYYankees 101-61 .623
( 2) NYYankees 5.59 | ( 2) Oakland 4.54 | ( 2) Boston 98-64 .605
( 3) White Sox 5.44 | ( 3) Anaheim 4.54 | ( 3) Anaheim 92-70 .568
( 4) Texas 5.38 | ( 4) Boston 4.76 | ( 4) Minnesota 91-70 .565
( 5) Cleveland 5.28 | ( 5) Texas 4.96 | ( 5) Oakland 91-71 .562
( 6) Baltimore 5.21 | ( 6) NYYankees 5.04 | ( 6) Texas 89-73 .549
( 7) Anaheim 5.17 | ( 7) Seattle 5.08 | ( 7) White Sox 83-79 .512
( 8) Detroit 5.17 | ( 8) Baltimore 5.13 | ( 8) Cleveland 80-81 .497
( 9) Oakland 4.85 | ( 9) TORONTO 5.21 | ( 9) Baltimore 78-84 .481
(10) Minnesota 4.76 | (10) White Sox 5.22 | (10) Detroit 72-90 .444
(11) Kansas City 4.56 | (11) Cleveland 5.26 | (11) Tampa Bay 70-91 .435
(12) TORONTO 4.55 | (12) Detroit 5.28 | (12) TORONTO 67-94 .416
(13) Tampa Bay 4.53 | (13) Tampa Bay 5.35 | (13) Seattle 63-99 .389
(14) Seattle 4.30 | (14) Kansas City 5.73 | (14) Kansas City 58-104 .358
Avg 5.05 Avg 5.03 1133-1131
The Jays' offense fell from 3rd-best in 2003 to the league's worst in 2004
(after adjusting for park factor) despite most of the 2003 lineup returning:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY BOS DET CLE ANA CHW BAL TEX OAK KAN TAM MIN SEA TOR
.275 .272 .268 .267 .266 .264 .263 .257 .257 .254 .252 .252 .251 .245
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching and defense
improved modestly to better than average (EqA of .260 is average):
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIN TEX BOS OAK ANA TOR CHW BAL NYY CLE SEA TAM DET KAN
.244 .249 .250 .250 .252 .258 .260 .262 .264 .267 .268 .270 .270 .278
The data suggests that SkyDome favored the hitters. These park factors
are based 50% on 2004 data, 25% on 2003, 12.5% on 2002 and 12.5% on 1999-2001,
except when the park changed (as it did in KAN, MON, PHI and SDP):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 13 14
TEX TOR BOS CHW MIN BAL OAK CLE ANA TAM KAN NYY DET SEA
9.5 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 .0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.5 -6.5
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'04 Hitters
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7 returning hitters declined by at least 2 wins (Delgado declined by 4 wins,
Wells by 3, and Myers, Phelps, Catalanotto, Hinske and Johnson by 2 each;
the details are in the theory section below). Woodward and Clark declined by
1 win each, and Gomez produced 1 win less than Bordick. That's 20 fewer wins.
Hudson improved by 1 win, and additions Zaun and Menechino contributed,
but it wasn't enough to offset all the declines:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 32 L 1B .294 .269 .371 .535 6.92 80 74 99 32 0 1 550
Vernon Wells 25 R CF .268 .272 .337 .472 5.49 74 82 67 23 9 2 590
Orlando Hudson 26 S 2B .262 .270 .341 .438 5.17 64 73 58 12 7 3 548
Gregg Zaun 33 S C .260 .269 .367 .393 5.09 43 46 36 6 0 2 392
Alexis Rios 23 R RF .248 .286 .338 .383 4.52 48 55 28 1 15 3 459
Josh Phelps 26 R DH .239 .237 .296 .417 4.13 32 38 51 12 0 0 321
Reed Johnson 27 R LF .238 .270 .320 .380 4.09 55 68 61 10 6 3 579
Chris Gomez 33 R IF .236 .282 .337 .346 4.02 34 41 37 3 3 2 374
Eric Hinske 26 L 3B .236 .246 .312 .375 3.97 60 66 69 15 12 8 634
Outfield prospect Alex Rios showed a strong arm in right-field but didn't hit
for much power. Another outfield prospect, Gabe Gross, didn't even hit for
average after his callup:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Frank Menechino 33 R IF .295 .301 .400 .504 6.97 40 40 25 9 0 2 275
F. Catalanotto 30 L OF .251 .293 .344 .390 4.68 28 27 26 1 1 0 273
Howie Clark 30 L UT .222 .217 .292 .348 3.42 11 17 12 3 0 0 130
Gabe Gross 24 L LF .217 .209 .311 .310 3.25 12 18 16 3 2 2 148
Chris Woodward 28 R SS .215 .235 .283 .347 3.15 18 21 24 1 1 2 230
Dave Berg 33 R UT .209 .253 .278 .338 2.93 12 13 23 3 0 1 162
Kevin Cash 26 R C .191 .193 .249 .309 2.37 12 18 21 4 0 0 197
J.P. Ricciardi's 1st draft pick, Russ Adams, hit well in his September callup.
Eric Crozier was the pickup from Cleveland in the Josh Phelps trade Aug 7/04:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Russ Adams 23 L SS .288 .306 .359 .528 6.57 11 10 10 4 1 0 78
Bobby Estalella 29 R C .246 .231 .412 .231 4.43 2 1 0 0 0 0 17
Eric Crozier 25 L 1B .230 .152 .282 .394 3.75 4 5 4 2 0 0 39
Greg Myers 38 L C .219 .222 .300 .333 3.31 2 0 1 0 0 0 20
Guillermo Quiroz 22 R C .181 .212 .263 .250 2.05 3 2 6 0 1 0 57
Simon Pond 27 L UT .181 .163 .250 .265 2.05 3 4 6 1 0 0 56
Chad Hermansen 26 R OF -.198 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 -1 0 0 0 0 0 7
The Pitchers -.198 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 -2 0 0 0 0 0 21
Triples:
Alexis Rios 7, Orlando Hudson 7, Frank Menechino 4, Chris Woodward 4,
Eric Hinske 3, Vernon Wells 2, Reed Johnson 2, Josh Phelps 2, Russ Adams 1,
Frank Catalanotto 1, Chris Gomez 1
Doubles (leaders):
Vernon Wells 34, Orlando Hudson 32, Carlos Delgado 26, Reed Johnson 25,
Alexis Rios 24, Gregg Zaun 24, Eric Hinske 23, Frank Catalanotto 19
Times On Base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 204, Vernon Wells 199, Eric Hinske 198, Orlando Hudson 187,
Reed Johnson 185, Alexis Rios 155, Gregg Zaun 144, Chris Gomez 126
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Eric Hinske 438, Reed Johnson 395, Vernon Wells 392, Orlando Hudson 360,
Carlos Delgado 336, Alexis Rios 307, Gregg Zaun 249, Chris Gomez 247
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Dave Berg 6.8, Kevin Cash 5.9, Josh Phelps 4.1, Reed Johnson 3.5,
Chris Woodward 3.3, Alexis Rios 2.7, Eric Hinske 2.0, Frank Catalanotto 1.9,
Orlando Hudson 1.9, Carlos Delgado 1.7, Gabe Gross 1.6, Vernon Wells 1.6,
Chris Gomez 1.5, Gregg Zaun 1.3, Frank Menechino 1.2, Howie Clark 1.2
Part of the Jays' problem in 2004 was injuries to the regulars, but most
of their EqAs were lower even when they were in the lineup:
Games Played (leaders):
Eric Hinske 155, Reed Johnson 141, Orlando Hudson 135, Vernon Wells 134,
Carlos Delgado 128, Alexis Rios 111, Chris Gomez 109, Gregg Zaun 107
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'04 Starting Pitchers
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The starting rotation was the best part of the team. Ted Lilly ($1.9m) was
acquired from the A's for Bobby Kielty on Nov 18/03. Dave Bush, Ricciardi's
2nd-ever draft pick, pitched very well after his mid-season callup.
Roy Halladay ($6.0m) pitched well but the Jays cautiously rested him mid-season
after a few subpar starts. Free-agent acquisition Miguel Batista ($3.6m) was
moved to the pen in September after a subpar 2nd-half. Josh Towers ($0.3m)
again provided average performance at low-cost:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Ted Lilly 28 L 12 10 4.06 .237 .240 .256 -16 197.3 7.8 4.1 1.2 7.7
David Bush 24 R 5 4 3.69 .240 .238 .249 -5 97.7 8.8 2.3 1.0 5.9
Roy Halladay 27 R 8 8 4.20 .243 .244 .241 4 133.0 9.5 2.6 .9 6.4
Miguel Batista 33 R 10 13 4.80 .258 .256 .265 -9 198.7 9.3 4.3 1.0 4.7
Josh Towers 27 R 9 9 5.11 .262 .272 .264 9 116.3 11.4 2.0 1.2 3.9
Gustavo Chacin pitched well in his 2 September starts. Pat Hentgen ($2.2m)
retired JUly 24/04, presumably sacrificing a lot of guaranteed income:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Gustavo Chacin 23 L 1 1 2.57 .195 .144 .222 -5 14.0 5.1 1.9 .0 3.9
Ryan Glynn 29 R 1 0 4.05 .234 .264 .284 -2 20.0 8.6 3.6 1.8 6.3
Justin Miller 26 R 3 4 6.06 .280 .288 .281 6 81.7 11.1 4.6 1.5 5.2
Pat Hentgen 35 R 2 9 6.95 .299 .281 .296 -7 80.3 10.1 4.7 1.8 3.7
TORONTO 67 94 4.93 .258 .259 .261 41421.0 9.5 3.9 1.1 6.1
Games Started:
Ted Lilly 32, Miguel Batista 31, Roy Halladay 21, Josh Towers 21,
David Bush 16, Pat Hentgen 16, Justin Miller 15, Sean Douglass 3,
Jason Kershner 2, Ryan Glynn 2, Gustavo Chacin 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Gustavo Chacin 7.0, Roy Halladay 6.3, Ted Lilly 6.2, David Bush 6.1,
Josh Towers 5.5, Miguel Batista 5.2, Pat Hentgen 4.5, Justin Miller 4.3,
Ryan Glynn 3.3
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'04 Relief Pitchers
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As so often happens, for a lot of the year the Jays' 2 best relievers were
pitchers who didn't even start the year in the majors (Frasor and Chulk).
Jason Frasor was acquired from the Dodgers for Jayson Werth at the end of
spring training. Of the 3 added veteran relievers, only Speier ($1.6m),
acquired in the off-season from the Rockies for LHP Mark Hendrickson, had
good component stats, and he still lost 8 games. Adams ($1.7m) was mediocre
and was traded to the Red Sox July 24/04 for 3B John Hattig.
Ligtenberg ($2.0m) allowed a lot of hits and walks. The bullpen had a lot
of losses, but lack of offensive support was part of the reason:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Jason Frasor 26 R 4 6 4.08 .234 .240 .241 0 68.3 8.4 4.7 .5 7.1
Justin Speier 30 R 3 8 3.91 .236 .236 .253 -6 69.0 8.0 3.3 1.0 6.8
Terry Adams 31 R 4 4 3.98 .237 .266 .249 5 43.0 10.3 4.6 .8 7.3
Vinnie Chulk 25 R 1 3 4.66 .250 .257 .252 3 56.0 9.5 4.3 1.0 7.1
Kerry Ligtenberg 33 R 1 6 6.38 .283 .283 .246 15 55.0 11.9 4.1 1.0 8.0
Side-armer Mike Nakamura was dominant at times before catching homeritis.
The declines of Lopez and Kershner (2 wins each compared to 2003 according to
the theory section below) hurt the bullpen:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Bob File 27 R 1 0 4.81 .256 .281 .264 5 33.7 12.0 3.2 1.1 4.0
Sean Douglass 25 R 0 2 6.28 .279 .271 .274 0 38.7 8.6 6.5 1.4 8.4
Aquilino Lopez 29 R 1 1 6.00 .281 .283 .305 -3 21.0 9.0 5.6 2.1 5.6
Jason Kershner 27 L 0 1 6.04 .281 .281 .255 4 22.3 12.1 3.2 1.2 6.0
Kevin Frederick 27 R 0 2 6.59 .284 .273 .267 2 28.7 10.0 5.0 1.3 6.9
Mike Nakamura 27 R 0 3 7.36 .308 .273 .281 -1 25.7 9.5 2.5 2.5 8.4
Young Brandon League was sensational in a few September appearances.
De Los Santos ($0.85m) was another veteran reliever who didn't perform.
The first Ricciardi draft to make the majors was a surprise June callup from
AA, Adam Peterson (the 4th-round pick in 2002), but he did not pitch well,
including after a quick demotion to AAA:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Brandon League 21 R 1 0 .00 .000 .152 .216 -1 4.7 5.8 1.9 .0 3.9
Frank Menechino 30 R 0 0 .00 .000 .508 .229 1 .3 54.0 .0 .0 .0
V DeLosSantos 31 L 0 0 6.17 .276 .250 .240 1 11.7 8.5 7.7 .0 7.7
Adam Peterson 25 R 0 0 16.88 .413 .416 .320 3 2.7 23.6 10.1 3.4 6.8
Dave Maurer 29 L 0 0 54.00 .658 .569 .399 3 1.3 40.5 33.8 6.8 6.8
Relief Appearances:
Jason Frasor 63, Justin Speier 62, Kerry Ligtenberg 57, Vinnie Chulk 47,
Terry Adams 42, Bob File 24, Jason Kershner 22, Kevin Frederick 22,
Mike Nakamura 19, Aquilino Lopez 18, V Delossantos 17, Sean Douglass 11,
Miguel Batista 7, Ryan Glynn 4, Justin Miller 4, Brandon League 3,
Adam Peterson 3, Dave Maurer 3, Pat Hentgen 2, Frank Menechino 1
Saves:
Jason Frasor 17, Justin Speier 7, Miguel Batista 5, Terry Adams 3,
Kerry Ligtenberg 3, Vinnie Chulk 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Sean Douglass 2.8, Brandon League 1.6, Bob File 1.4, Mike Nakamura 1.4,
Kevin Frederick 1.3, Vinnie Chulk 1.2, Aquilino Lopez 1.2,
Justin Speier 1.1, Jason Frasor 1.1, Terry Adams 1.0, Kerry Ligtenberg 1.0,
Jason Kershner .9, Adam Peterson .9, V Delossantos .7, Dave Maurer .4,
Frank Menechino .3
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Jays Alumni in '04
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Josh Phelps found his form in limited opportunities after leaving the Jays.
Jayson Werth hit well when he wasn't injured. Cesar Izturis hit for a high
batting average but little power:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Josh Phelps CLE .298 .310 .347 .563 6.67 12 12 9 4 0 0 75
Shannon Stewart MIN .281 .304 .380 .447 6.02 56 46 47 11 6 3 429
Jayson Werth LAD .278 .262 .338 .486 5.45 44 56 47 16 4 1 325
Shawn Green LAD .276 .266 .352 .459 5.37 89 92 86 28 5 2 671
Michael Young TEX .272 .313 .355 .483 5.96 93 114 99 22 12 3 741
John Olerud NYY .271 .280 .367 .396 5.18 23 16 26 4 0 0 188
Jose Cruz TAM .267 .242 .333 .433 5.01 78 76 78 21 11 6 631
John Olerud SEA .262 .245 .354 .360 4.62 35 29 22 5 0 0 311
Albert Castillo KAN .261 .270 .365 .371 4.68 12 12 11 1 0 2 104
Raul Mondesi PIT .261 .283 .355 .424 4.80 13 8 14 2 0 2 110
Todd Greene COL .254 .282 .325 .508 5.42 23 23 35 10 0 0 209
Cesar Izturis LAD .249 .288 .330 .381 4.16 77 90 62 4 25 9 716
Tony Batista MON .247 .241 .270 .455 4.05 72 76 110 32 14 6 644
Felipe Lopez CIN .246 .242 .314 .405 4.13 31 35 31 7 1 1 293
Brad Fullmer TEX .246 .233 .310 .442 4.61 30 41 33 11 1 2 290
Bobby Kielty OAK .245 .214 .321 .370 4.12 28 29 31 7 1 0 277
Alex_s Gonzalez CHC .201 .217 .241 .364 2.62 9 15 8 3 1 1 133
Alex_s Gonzalez MON .232 .241 .289 .383 3.47 13 19 16 4 1 1 142
Alex_s Gonzalez SDP .193 .174 .240 .304 2.12 2 2 3 0 0 0 25
Raul Mondesi ANA .133 .118 .189 .235 .89 1 2 1 1 0 1 37
Frank Menechino OAK-.126 .091 .143 .091 -.78 -1 0 1 0 0 0 35
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
David Segui BAL .285 .339 .400 .441 6.07 9 8 7 1 0 1 65
Casey Blake CLE .283 .272 .356 .489 5.88 93 93 86 28 5 8 661
Jeff Kent HOU .283 .289 .348 .531 6.19 84 96 107 27 7 3 606
Craig Wilson PIT .281 .264 .352 .499 5.79 88 97 82 29 2 2 642
Roberto Alomar ARZ .274 .309 .382 .473 5.85 16 14 16 3 0 2 123
Miguel Cairo NYY .270 .292 .346 .417 5.09 49 48 42 6 11 3 396
Ryan Freel CIN .266 .277 .375 .368 4.99 70 74 28 3 37 10 584
Ruben Sierra NYY .260 .244 .296 .456 4.64 40 40 65 17 1 0 338
Adam Melhuse OAK .259 .257 .309 .463 4.76 28 23 31 11 0 1 230
Benito Santiago KAN .256 .274 .312 .434 4.48 22 15 23 6 1 2 186
Tom Wilson NYM .246 .250 .400 .250 4.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Pat Borders MIN .245 .293 .310 .390 4.25 4 3 5 0 2 0 42
Dewayne Wise ATL .242 .228 .272 .444 4.03 18 24 17 6 6 1 173
Jay Gibbons BAL .237 .246 .303 .379 3.84 36 36 47 10 1 1 379
Chad Mottola BAL .231 .143 .250 .429 3.61 2 2 3 1 0 0 16
Abraham Nunez KAN .228 .226 .304 .335 3.37 22 31 29 5 0 1 247
Tomas Perez PHI .224 .216 .257 .415 3.38 17 22 21 6 0 0 187
Mike Matheny STL .220 .247 .292 .348 3.16 34 28 50 5 0 2 414
Fred McGriff TAM .207 .181 .272 .306 2.67 6 7 7 2 0 0 81
Chris Stynes PIT .194 .216 .266 .296 2.30 11 16 16 1 0 0 173
Abraham Nunez FLA .191 .172 .274 .266 2.14 4 9 5 1 1 2 73
Pat Borders SEA .165 .189 .204 .283 1.46 2 6 5 1 1 1 54
Roberto Alomar CHW .143 .180 .203 .246 1.14 2 4 8 1 0 0 64
Ken Huckaby TEX .136 .132 .233 .184 1.05 1 3 0 0 0 0 43
Ken Huckaby BAL .122 .167 .167 .250 .73 0 1 0 0 0 0 12
Homer Bush NYY-.129 .000 .125 .000 -.80 0 2 0 0 1 0 8
Tom Wilson LAD-.127 .125 .125 .125 -.77 0 1 0 0 0 0 8
Sandy Martinez BOS-.198 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Sandy Martinez CLE-.203 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
A surprising cast of former Jays appeared on the $184m Yankee roster:
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Roger Clemens HOU 18 4 2.98 .220 .219 .228 -9 214.3 7.1 3.3 .6 9.2
Doug Davis MIL 12 12 3.39 .234 .240 .242 -1 207.3 8.3 3.4 .6 7.2
Billy Koch FLA 1 2 3.51 .236 .266 .279 -2 25.7 7.4 7.0 1.1 8.8
Trever Miller TAM 1 1 3.12 .236 .241 .233 3 49.0 8.8 2.8 .6 7.9
Kelvim Escobar ANA 11 12 3.93 .238 .243 .246 -1 208.3 8.3 3.3 .9 8.2
Chris Carpenter STL 15 5 3.46 .239 .243 .253 -7 182.0 8.4 1.9 1.2 7.5
Cory Lidle PHI 5 2 3.90 .244 .223 .246 -7 62.3 7.8 2.5 .4 4.8
Cliff Politte CHW 0 3 4.38 .246 .254 .247 3 51.3 9.1 3.9 1.1 8.4
David Wells SDP 12 8 3.73 .250 .250 .262 -10 195.7 9.3 .9 1.1 4.6
Scott Eyre SFG 2 2 4.10 .255 .250 .270 -5 52.7 7.3 4.6 1.4 8.4
Woody Williams STL 11 8 4.18 .256 .256 .258 0 189.7 9.2 2.8 .9 6.2
Esteban Loaiza CHW 9 5 4.86 .259 .263 .267 -2 140.7 10.0 2.9 1.5 5.3
Paul Quantrill NYY 7 3 4.72 .265 .269 .248 13 95.3 11.7 1.9 .5 3.5
Billy Koch CHW 1 1 5.40 .270 .274 .262 2 23.3 9.3 6.2 1.2 9.6
Mark Hendrickson TAM 10 15 4.81 .273 .264 .264 3 183.3 10.4 2.3 1.0 4.3
Tanyon Sturtze NYY 6 2 5.47 .278 .259 .268 -3 77.3 8.7 3.8 1.0 6.5
Terry Adams BOS 2 0 6.00 .280 .285 .269 4 27.0 11.7 2.0 2.0 7.0
Cory Lidle CIN 7 10 5.32 .286 .278 .277 4 149.0 10.3 2.7 1.4 5.6
Felix Heredia NYY 1 1 6.28 .293 .283 .277 2 38.7 10.2 4.7 1.2 5.8
Esteban Loaiza NYY 1 2 8.50 .335 .325 .294 11 42.3 13.0 5.5 1.9 7.2
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Frank Castillo BOS 0 0 .00 .000 .266 .288 0 1.0 9.0 9.0 .0 .0
Giovanni Carrara LAD 5 2 2.18 .207 .224 .223 0 53.7 7.7 3.4 .2 8.0
David Weathers FLA 1 0 2.70 .213 .237 .276 -3 16.7 7.0 3.8 1.1 5.4
Carlos Almanzar TEX 7 3 3.72 .228 .226 .247 -8 72.7 8.2 2.4 1.0 5.4
Jose Mesa PIT 5 2 3.25 .230 .262 .257 3 69.3 10.1 2.6 .8 4.8
Al Leiter NYM 10 8 3.21 .230 .246 .274 -27 173.7 7.2 5.0 .8 6.1
Mike Timlin BOS 5 4 4.13 .236 .239 .244 -1 76.3 8.8 2.2 .9 6.6
Steve Karsay NYY 0 0 2.70 .242 .253 .316 -2 6.7 6.8 2.7 2.7 5.4
Gary Glover MIL 2 1 3.50 .255 .265 .281 -2 18.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 4.0
Steve Trachsel NYM 12 13 4.00 .261 .263 .275 -12 202.7 9.0 3.7 1.1 5.2
Pete Munro HOU 4 7 5.15 .271 .273 .259 10 99.7 10.8 2.3 1.1 5.7
David Weathers NYM 5 3 4.28 .271 .292 .275 4 33.7 11.0 4.0 1.3 6.7
David Weathers HOU 1 4 4.78 .277 .263 .271 -1 32.0 8.7 3.7 1.4 7.3
Darwin Cubillan BAL 0 0 5.40 .284 .321 .312 1 10.0 11.7 6.3 2.7 7.2
John Wasdin TEX 2 4 6.78 .289 .291 .293 1 65.0 11.5 3.2 2.5 5.0
Gary Majewski MON 0 1 3.86 .301 .290 .262 4 21.0 12.0 2.1 .9 5.1
Scott Service ARZ 1 1 7.08 .308 .298 .293 1 20.3 10.6 4.4 2.2 7.5
Brian Cooper SFG 0 2 8.78 .335 .301 .321 -1 13.3 10.1 3.4 2.7 4.7
Ben Weber ANA 0 2 8.06 .342 .337 .295 7 22.3 14.9 6.0 1.6 4.4
Leo Estrella SFG 0 0 27.00 .525 .545 .261 5 1.3 54.0 6.8 .0 .0
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2004 American League Leaders
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No Jays made the hitters' leaderboard in 2004. Former Expo Vladimir Guerrero
had perhaps the best overall combination of offense and defense in the league:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 356 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Travis Hafner CLE .326 .311 .410 .583 8.34 102 96 109 28 3 2 573
V. Guerrero ANA .325 .337 .391 .598 8.23 125 124 126 39 15 3 680
Melvin Mora BAL .322 .340 .419 .562 8.25 110 111 104 27 11 6 630
Manny Ramirez BOS .319 .310 .399 .616 8.39 115 108 130 43 2 4 662
David Ortiz BOS .311 .301 .380 .603 7.90 111 94 139 41 0 0 669
Gary Sheffield NYY .311 .290 .393 .534 7.29 113 117 121 36 5 6 684
Carlos Guillen DET .309 .318 .379 .542 7.14 97 97 97 20 12 5 580
Hideki Matsui NYY .309 .298 .390 .522 7.16 110 109 108 31 3 0 680
Ichiro Suzuki SEA .308 .372 .414 .455 6.92 121 101 60 8 36 11 760
Erubiel Durazo OAK .306 .321 .396 .523 7.23 92 80 88 22 3 2 578
Alex Rodriguez NYY .304 .286 .375 .512 6.90 112 112 106 36 28 4 698
Ivan Rodriguez DET .303 .334 .383 .510 6.81 91 72 86 19 7 4 575
Eric Chavez OAK .303 .276 .397 .501 7.03 89 87 77 29 6 3 577
Jorge Posada NYY .302 .272 .399 .481 6.75 83 72 81 21 1 3 546
2 Jays (and 1 former Jay) made the pitchers' leaderboard:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by REqA (minimum 123.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Johan Santana MIN 20 6 2.61 .203 .198 .220 -23 228.0 6.2 2.1 .9 10.5
Curt Schilling BOS 21 6 3.26 .217 .219 .225 -5 226.7 8.2 1.4 .9 8.1
Brad Radke MIN 11 8 3.48 .230 .236 .239 0 219.7 9.4 1.1 .9 5.9
Rodrigo Lopez BAL 14 9 3.59 .231 .244 .255 -9 170.7 8.6 2.8 1.1 6.4
Pedro Martinez BOS 16 9 3.90 .236 .233 .236 0 217.0 8.0 2.5 1.1 9.4
Tim Hudson OAK 12 6 3.53 .236 .236 .237 0 188.7 9.3 2.1 .4 4.9
Jake Westbrook CLE 14 9 3.28 .236 .237 .255 -20 208.7 8.5 2.6 .8 4.9
Ted Lilly TOR 12 10 4.06 .237 .240 .256 -16 197.3 7.8 4.1 1.2 7.7
Kelvim Escobar ANA 11 12 3.93 .238 .243 .246 -1 208.3 8.3 3.3 .9 8.2
Ryan Drese TEX 14 10 4.20 .240 .245 .244 4 207.7 10.1 2.5 .7 4.2
Zack Greinke KAN 8 11 3.97 .240 .255 .271 -12 145.0 8.9 1.6 1.6 6.2
Mark Buehrle CHW 16 10 3.89 .242 .246 .251 -3 245.3 9.4 1.9 1.2 6.1
Roy Halladay TOR 8 8 4.20 .243 .244 .241 4 133.0 9.5 2.6 .9 6.4
Carlos Silva MIN 14 8 4.16 .244 .262 .255 12 197.0 11.2 1.6 1.0 3.4
No Blue Jays made the relievers' list:
Top 7 Relievers by REqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Joe Nathan MIN 1 2 1.66 .171 .189 .200 -3 70.3 6.1 2.9 .4 10.9
Mariano Rivera NYY 4 2 1.94 .181 .210 .223 -5 78.7 7.3 2.3 .3 7.6
F. Cordero TEX 3 4 2.13 .186 .209 .200 4 71.7 7.5 4.0 .1 9.9
Keith Foulke BOS 5 3 2.17 .190 .203 .226 -9 83.0 6.8 1.6 .9 8.6
F. Rodriguez ANA 4 1 1.82 .191 .179 .182 -1 84.0 5.5 3.5 .2 13.2
Shingo Takatsu CHW 6 4 2.31 .192 .196 .242 -14 62.3 5.8 3.0 .9 7.2
Tom Gordon NYY 9 4 2.21 .193 .178 .211 -12 89.7 5.6 2.3 .5 9.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theory Stuff, 2004
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the Pythagorean standings, the Jays were 18 wins back of the Yankees, which
is a lot, but also a lot less than 34:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) BOS 96-66 .596 | ( 1) NYY 12
( 2) ANA 91-71 .559 | ( 2) OAK 5
( 3) NYY 89-73 .548 | ( 3) MIN 4
( 4) MIN 87-74 .539 | ( 4) TEX 2
( 5) TEX 87-75 .536 | ( 5) TAM 2
( 6) OAK 86-76 .530 | ( 6) BOS 2
( 7) CHW 84-78 .518 | ( 7) ANA 1
( 8) BAL 82-80 .507 | ( 8) CLE -1
( 9) CLE 81-80 .501 | ( 9) CHW -1
(10) DET 79-83 .491 | (10) TOR -4
(11) TOR 71-90 .439 | (11) BAL -4
(12) SEA 69-93 .425 | (12) SEA -6
(13) TAM 68-93 .425 | (13) KAN -6
(14) KAN 64-98 .397 | (14) DET -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where Did The Wins Go in 2004?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is a bonus theory section this year.
Difference in Wins Above Replacement (2004 vs. 2003):
Declines:
-4*2: Halladay, Delgado
-3*2: VWells, [Pythagoras]
-2*8: GMyers, JPhelps, -Escobar, ALopez, FCat, Hinske, Kershner, RJohnson
-1*7: -Stewart, Woodward, HClark, +Hentgen, -Bordick, +Gross, Berg
Improvements:
+4*1: +Lilly
+3*0:
+2*3: +DBush, +Batista, +Menechino
+1*8: +Speier, +Frasor, +Chacin, +Zaun, OHudson, Chulk, -Sturtze, +TAdams
Offense -19, Pitching +3, Pythagoras -3
Returning Offense -19, Departed Offense -2, New Offense +2
Returning Pitching -7, Departed Pitching -1, New Pitching +11
Returning Players -26, Departures -3, New Players +13
The Jays' focus for 2004 was to improve their pitching. From the chart,
we can see that the Jays' new pitchers provided 10 more wins than the
departed pitchers (e.g. Lilly, Bush and Batista provided a lot more
than Escobar and Sturtze). But the returning pitchers declined by 7 wins
(e.g. Halladay, Lopez and Kershner), so the Jays only gained 3 wins on
pitching overall.
The offense was left mostly the same. The new hitters (e.g. Menechino,
Zaun) compensated for the departed hitters (e.g. Stewart, Bordick).
But the returning hitters collectively declined by 19 wins (Delgado 4,
Wells 3, Myers 2, Phelps 2, FCat 2, Hinske 2, Johnson 2, etc., etc.)
Overall, the 2004 contributions of the new players added to 10 wins more
than the 2003 contributions of the departed players. i.e. the turnover
overall helped the team a lot.
But the returning players were 26 wins worse in 2004 than 2003.
If they had equalled their previous year, and if the Pythagorean had
evened out, the Jays would have won 97 games.
(Which is not to suggest that anyone was expecting the returning
players to equal their previous years. Most analysts expected a
decline. But not a 26-win decline.)
Details of Calculations:
Wins Above Replacement: The player's equivalent runs is compared to
the expected equivalent runs by a replacement player (15% below average)
with the same number of outs. (For pitchers, equivalent runs was
50% inferred from CEqA, 33% from REqA, and 17% from ERA_EqA).
This number is divided by 9 to get Wins Above Replacement (since EqR
is based on assuming 4.5 runs per 9 innings is average).
Note that the hitters' calculation does not incorporate defense
(or even defensive position); defensive improvements would all go
to the pitchers.
The numbers were rounded to the nearest win. For players with plus
or minus half a win, I did some arbitrary rounding to make the sums
for overall offense and defense work out to the expected number
from the Pythagorean formula. Overall, the accuracy for the
player numbers is about +/-0.5. For arbitrary breakdowns from summing,
the errors might accumulate, but most of the time should cancel.
The 1st column of the chart is the difference in
Wins Above Replacement (i.e. -4, -3, -2, -1, +1, +2, +3 and +4).
Players are listed in descending absolute value of their difference
on their line. The count of the number of players on the line is
the 2nd number (e.g. -4*2 means 2 players had a decline of 4 wins,
namely Halladay and Delgado).
A plus prefix on a name (e.g. +Lilly) indicates that the player was
only with the team in 2004 and so is compared to a zero in 2003.
e.g. Lilly was 4 wins above replacement in 2004 so is a +4.
Hentgen was 1 win below replacement in 2004 so is listed as -1.
A minus prefix (e.g. -Escobar) indicates that the player was only with
the team in 2003 and so his 2003 performance is subtracted from zero.
e.g. Escobar was 2 wins above replacement in 2003, so he's listed
on the -2 line (i.e. a reason the 2004 Jays declined 2 wins).
Players with a difference of 0 are not listed in the chart.
e.g. Kevin Cash was -1 each year, which cancels, so he's not listed.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National League
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After years of mismanagement by ownership, the Expos reportedly were headed
to Washington. Most media commentators bought the line that it was because
the fans had become too apathetic and the players had remained too greedy:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) St. Louis 5.29 | ( 1) St. Louis 4.08 | ( 1) St. Louis 105-57 .648
( 2)SanFrancisco 5.25 | ( 2) Cubs 4.08 | ( 2) Atlanta 96-66 .593
( 3) Colorado 5.23 | ( 3) Atlanta 4.15 | ( 3) Los Angeles 93-69 .574
( 4)Philadelphia 5.17 | ( 4) Los Angeles 4.24 | ( 4) Houston 92-70 .568
( 5) Houston 5.01 | ( 5) Houston 4.35 | ( 5)SanFrancisco 91-71 .562
( 6) Atlanta 4.98 | ( 6) Florida 4.38 | ( 6) Cubs 89-73 .549
( 7) Cubs 4.85 | ( 7) San Diego 4.40 | ( 7) San Diego 87-75 .537
( 8) San Diego 4.80 | ( 8) NYMets 4.54 | ( 8)Philadelphia 86-76 .531
( 9) Los Angeles 4.71 | ( 9) Pittsburgh 4.69 | ( 9) Florida 83-79 .512
(10) Cincinnati 4.68 | (10) Milwaukee 4.72 | (10) Cincinnati 76-86 .469
(11) Florida 4.49 | (11)SanFrancisco 4.76 | (11) Pittsburgh 72-89 .447
(12) Pittsburgh 4.29 | (12) Montreal 4.78 | (12) NYMets 71-91 .438
(13) NYMets 4.25 | (13)Philadelphia 4.81 | (13) Colorado 68-94 .420
(14) Milwaukee 3.96 | (14) Arizona 5.63 | (14) Milwaukee 67-94 .416
(15) Montreal 3.95 | (15) Cincinnati 5.65 | (15) Montreal 67-95 .414
(16) Arizona 3.85 | (16) Colorado 5.79 | (16) Arizona 51-111 .315
Avg 4.67 Avg 4.69 1294-1296
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
STL SFG SDP PHI ATL LAD HOU CIN CHC FLA COL PIT NYM MON MIL ARZ
.275 .273 .271 .269 .267 .266 .264 .263 .262 .261 .254 .253 .253 .248 .242 .235
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CHC STL ATL HOU LAD FLA NYM MIL PHI SFG PIT SDP COL MON ARZ CIN
.244 .248 .248 .250 .255 .258 .259 .260 .262 .262 .262 .262 .265 .268 .274 .284
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 12 13 13 13 16
COL ARZ HOU CHC MIL PHI ATL SFG PIT STL NYM CIN FLA LAD MON SDP
18.0 5.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 -.5 -.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -8.0
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) STL 100-62 .617 | ( 1) CIN 9
( 2) ATL 95-67 .583 | ( 2) STL 5
( 3) CHC 94-68 .578 | ( 3) LAD 4
( 4) HOU 91-71 .564 | ( 4) SFG 3
( 5) LAD 89-73 .549 | ( 5) ATL 1
( 6) SFG 88-74 .545 | ( 6) HOU 1
( 7) SDP 87-75 .539 | ( 7) FLA 0
( 8) PHI 86-76 .533 | ( 8) MON 0
( 9) FLA 83-79 .512 | ( 9) SDP 0
(10) NYM 76-86 .470 | (10) PHI 0
(11) PIT 74-87 .459 | (11) MIL -1
(12) COL 73-89 .453 | (12) PIT -2
(13) MIL 68-93 .420 | (13) ARZ -3
(14) CIN 67-95 .414 | (14) CHC -5
(15) MON 67-95 .413 | (15) NYM -5
(16) ARZ 54-108 .333 | (16) COL -5
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 356 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Barry Bonds SFG .438 .362 .609 .812 17.88 155 129 101 45 6 1 617
Albert Pujols STL .335 .331 .414 .657 8.97 132 133 123 46 5 5 691
Jim Edmonds STL .334 .301 .417 .643 8.90 115 102 111 42 8 3 611
J.D. Drew ATL .326 .305 .436 .569 8.50 112 118 93 31 12 3 644
Adrian Beltre LAD .325 .334 .388 .629 8.11 123 104 121 48 7 2 657
Todd Helton COL .325 .347 .469 .620 10.07 110 115 96 32 3 0 683
Lance Berkman HOU .324 .316 .450 .566 8.71 116 104 106 30 9 7 687
Scott Rolen STL .322 .314 .409 .598 8.16 104 109 124 34 4 3 592
Bobby Abreu PHI .320 .301 .428 .544 8.26 120 118 105 30 40 5 713
J.T. Snow SFG .317 .327 .429 .529 7.94 67 62 60 12 4 0 415
Jim Thome PHI .309 .274 .396 .581 7.57 100 97 105 42 0 2 618
Adam Dunn CIN .309 .266 .387 .569 7.25 113 105 102 46 6 1 680
Mark Loretta SDP .304 .334 .390 .494 6.64 108 108 76 16 5 3 703
Sean Casey CIN .302 .324 .381 .534 6.85 98 101 99 24 2 0 633
Aramis Ramirez CHC .301 .318 .373 .578 7.13 95 99 103 36 0 2 606
Carlos Beltran HOU .298 .256 .362 .551 7.03 62 70 53 23 28 0 398
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by REqA (minimum 123.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Jake Peavy SDP 15 6 2.27 .214 .242 .239 4 166.3 7.9 2.9 .7 9.4
Randy Johnson ARZ 16 14 2.60 .219 .192 .203 -10 245.7 6.5 1.6 .7 10.6
Carlos Zambrano CHC 16 8 2.75 .220 .231 .240 -9 209.7 7.5 3.5 .6 8.1
Roger Clemens HOU 18 4 2.98 .220 .219 .228 -9 214.3 7.1 3.3 .6 9.2
Joe Kennedy COL 9 7 3.66 .223 .243 .245 0 162.3 9.0 3.7 .9 6.5
Ben Sheets MIL 12 14 2.70 .223 .217 .218 1 237.0 7.6 1.2 .9 10.0
Oliver Perez PIT 12 10 2.98 .227 .230 .240 -8 196.0 6.7 3.7 1.0 11.0
Jason Schmidt SFG 18 7 3.20 .228 .213 .226 -13 225.0 6.6 3.1 .7 10.0
Carl Pavano FLA 18 8 3.00 .229 .239 .248 -10 222.3 8.6 2.0 .6 5.6
Al Leiter NYM 10 8 3.21 .230 .246 .274 -27 173.7 7.2 5.0 .8 6.1
Brad Penny FLA 8 8 3.15 .234 .243 .244 0 131.3 8.5 2.7 .7 7.2
Doug Davis MIL 12 12 3.39 .234 .240 .242 -1 207.3 8.3 3.4 .6 7.2
Odalis Perez LAD 7 6 3.25 .236 .244 .265 -20 196.3 8.3 2.0 1.2 5.9
Glendon Rusch CHC 6 2 3.47 .236 .238 .241 -1 129.7 8.8 2.3 .7 6.2
Roy Oswalt HOU 20 10 3.49 .236 .238 .230 12 237.0 8.8 2.4 .6 7.8
Chris Carpenter STL 15 5 3.46 .239 .243 .253 -7 182.0 8.4 1.9 1.2 7.5
Top 8 Relievers by REqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Armando Benitez FLA 2 2 1.29 .165 .174 .241 -20 69.7 4.7 2.7 .8 8.0
Brad Lidge HOU 6 5 1.90 .183 .192 .192 1 94.7 5.4 2.9 .8 14.9
Akinori Otsuka SDP 7 2 1.75 .186 .216 .230 -5 77.3 6.5 3.0 .7 10.1
Steve Kline STL 2 2 1.79 .192 .215 .248 -8 50.3 6.6 3.0 .5 6.3
Guillermo Mota LAD 8 4 2.14 .194 .233 .248 -5 63.0 7.3 3.9 .6 7.4
Kent Mercker CHC 3 1 2.55 .202 .227 .246 -5 53.0 6.6 4.6 .7 8.7
Trevor Hoffman SDP 3 3 2.30 .202 .208 .229 -5 54.7 6.9 1.3 .8 8.7
Scott Linebrink SDP 7 3 2.14 .204 .221 .245 -9 84.0 6.5 2.8 .9 8.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .996 in 2004
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj -- this report's ERP columns are actually ERPDisplay
Age: as of July 1, 2004
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 719 runs, allowed 823 runs,
and pitched 1421.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.04 in 2004)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.04 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2004 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2004, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.04
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (AB+BB+HBP+SF)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
DRA: R27 when replacing Hits with 0.300 * (estimatedAB - HR - K) + HR,
and adding the change in Hits to Outs recorded
dH: the difference in Hits (see DRA)
(the (not quite true) theory is that this number should be 0,
assuming an average quality defense, so a positive difference
is "unlucky", a negative difference is "lucky")
REqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on RA (.260 is average)
CEqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on R27 (.260 is average)
DEqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on DRA (.260 is average)
H/9: Hits Allowed per 9 innings
BB/9: Walks allowed per 9 innings
HR/9: Home Runs allowed per 9 innings
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.8/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2004 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 2004
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .056*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2004
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .46*SB in 2004
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .965 in 2004
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.68 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2004 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2004, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.68
Pitching Stats Glossary:
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.6/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2004 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 2004
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .054*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2004
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .39*SB in 2004
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site,
http://www.dougstats.com/2004.html and is unofficial.
Park factor data for 2004 was from Google's cache of ESPN's data through
final Saturday at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Park factor data for 2003 and 2002 is from Robert Dudek of the Batter's Box
Baseball Blog: http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001050.shtml
Park factor data for 1999-2001 is from the STATS Major League Handbook 2002.
Games by position mostly derived from data on the USA Today web site
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/sba/sba04gp.htm
Salary information for 2004 is from
http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2004
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
DEqA and dH are inspired by the Defense Independent Pitching Stats work
of Voros McCracken (http://www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html)
but my calculations contain differences.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Last Updated: 2004 Oct 8
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.