"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 2002 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 2002 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 140, Brian Lesher 12, Tom Wilson 11,
Dave Berg 10, Chris Woodward 3, Josh Phelps 2
Second Base: Orlando Hudson 52, Dave Berg 52, Joe Lawrence 49,
Homer Bush 22, Chris Woodward 6
Shortstop: Chris Woodward 79, Felipe Lopez 79, Dave Berg 13
Third Base: Eric Hinske 148, Dave Berg 20, Chris Woodward 2,
Felipe Lopez 2
Left Field: Shannon Stewart 99, Jose Cruz 56, Dewayne Wise 6,
Jayson Werth 4, Brian Lesher 3, Dave Berg 3
Center Field: Vernon Wells 146, Jose Cruz 21, Dewayne Wise 3,
Jayson Werth 1
Right Field: Raul Mondesi 62, Jose Cruz 47, Dewayne Wise 26,
Vernon Wells 13, Dave Berg 10, Jayson Werth 10,
Brian Lesher 2, Pedro Swann 1
Catcher: Ken Huckaby 88, Tom Wilson 65, Darrin Fletcher 36,
Kevin Cash 7
Starting Pitcher: Roy Halladay 34, Esteban Loaiza 25, Pete Walker 20,
Justin Miller 18, Steve Parris 14, Chris Carpenter 13,
Luke Prokopec 12, Brandon Lyon 10, Michael Smith 6,
Mark Hendrickson 4, Scott Eyre 3, Brian Cooper 2,
Corey Thurman 1
Relief Pitcher: Kelvim Escobar 76, Scott Cassidy 58, Cliff Politte 55,
Felix Heredia 53, Scott Eyre 46, Corey Thurman 42,
Dan Plesac 19, Brian Bowles 17, Pete Walker 17,
Pedro Borbon 16, Mark Hendrickson 12, Jason Kershner 10,
Luke Prokopec 10, Michael Smith 8, Justin Miller 7,
Brandon Lyon 5, Bob File 5, Scott Wiggins 3,
Pasqual Coco 2
Designated Hitter: Josh Phelps 71, Shannon Stewart 38, Raul Mondesi 13,
Tom Wilson 12, Dave Berg 8, Darrin Fletcher 4,
Carlos Delgado 3, Dewayne Wise 3, Pedro Swann 3,
Brian Lesher 3, Jose Cruz 2, Chris Woodward 2,
Felipe Lopez 1, Homer Bush 1, Joe Lawrence 1
Manager: Buck Martinez 20-33 .377, Carlos Tosca 58-51 .532
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2002 in Context
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New general manager J.P. Ricciardi made a science of improving the team while
cutting payroll, and the Jays posted a .579 winning percentage after the
All-Star Break. Two of the league's three lowest opening day payrolls made
the playoffs (A's and Twins at $40m each), while two of the league's three
highest payrolls did not (Boston $108m, Texas $105m):
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) NYYankees 5.56 | ( 1) Anaheim 3.99 | ( 1) NYYankees 103-58 .640
( 2) White Sox 5.41 | ( 2) Oakland 4.05 | ( 2) Oakland 103-59 .636
( 3) Boston 5.35 | ( 3) Boston 4.14 | ( 3) Anaheim 99-63 .611
( 4) Anaheim 5.27 | ( 4) NYYankees 4.32 | ( 4) Minnesota 94-67 .584
( 5) Texas 5.27 | ( 5) Seattle 4.35 | ( 5) Boston 93-69 .574
( 6) TORONTO 5.09 | ( 6) Minnesota 4.44 | ( 5) Seattle 93-69 .574
( 7) Seattle 5.07 | ( 7) Baltimore 4.80 | ( 7) White Sox 81-81 .500
( 8) Oakland 4.96 | ( 8) White Sox 5.05 | ( 8) TORONTO 78-84 .481
( 9) Minnesota 4.78 | ( 9) TORONTO 5.18 | ( 9) Cleveland 74-88 .457
(10) Cleveland 4.67 | (10) Cleveland 5.29 | (10) Texas 72-90 .444
(11) Kansas City 4.60 | (11) Detroit 5.50 | (11) Baltimore 67-95 .414
(12) Tampa Bay 4.21 | (12) Texas 5.51 | (12) Kansas City 62-100 .383
(13) Baltimore 4.14 | (13) Kansas City 5.56 | (13) Detroit 55-106 .342
(14) Detroit 3.66 | (14) Tampa Bay 5.74 | (13) Tampa Bay 55-106 .342
Avg 4.86 Avg 4.85 1129-1135
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays' offense was better than
average, unlike the previous year, thanks in part to dropping 4
millionaires from the lineup:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY SEA BOS CHW OAK ANA TEX TOR CLE MIN KAN BAL TAM DET
.278 .271 .268 .268 .268 .267 .265 .262 .255 .253 .251 .250 .245 .237
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense
was 4% worse than average, though better than average after the break:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
ANA BOS MIN OAK NYY SEA CHW TOR BAL CLE TEX KAN TAM DET
.238 .242 .246 .247 .251 .255 .260 .264 .265 .268 .270 .270 .278 .279
The park factors are based on 1999-2001 data for runs per game (except
when the park changed) as listed in the STATS Major League Handbook 2001
(i.e. not updated to include this year's data yet):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 13 14
MIN KAN TEX CHW TOR BOS ANA CLE TAM NYY DET OAK SEA BAL
5.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 .0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.5 -6.0
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'02 Hitters
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Carlos Delgado ($19.4m) was the Jays' best hitter for the 3rd year in a row.
Eric Hinske ($0.2m), whom Ricciardi gave the 3rd-base job based on his minor
league stats, was the Jays' 2nd-best hitter. Young Vernon Wells compensated
for a low on-base percentage with some power at the plate and nifty defense
in the field:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 30 L 1B .318 .277 .406 .549 7.91 105 103 108 33 1 0 628
Eric Hinske 24 L 3B .289 .279 .365 .481 6.26 93 99 84 24 13 1 650
Shannon Stewart 28 R LF .282 .303 .371 .442 5.88 86 103 45 10 14 2 641
Chris Woodward 26 R SS .274 .276 .330 .468 5.46 45 48 45 13 3 0 349
Jose Cruz 28 S LF .261 .245 .317 .438 4.82 62 64 70 18 7 1 521
Vernon Wells 23 R CF .260 .275 .305 .457 4.79 78 87 100 23 9 4 646
Raul Mondesi 31 R RF .255 .224 .301 .435 4.57 39 51 45 15 9 2 335
Dave Berg 31 R IF .246 .270 .322 .382 4.18 42 42 39 4 0 2 410
Felipe Lopez 22 S SS .234 .227 .287 .387 3.67 30 35 34 8 5 4 307
On July 1, the Yankees helped the Jays by taking most of Mondesi's contract and
all of his playing time, creating a spot for Josh Phelps, a better hitter.
On July 24, the fans' outcry for Orlando Hudson to replace Joe Lawrence was
finally answered. Darrin Fletcher retired in mid-season when Ken Huckaby's
success with the pitchers won him most of the playing time:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Josh Phelps 24 R DH .303 .309 .362 .562 7.01 47 41 58 15 0 0 287
Orlando Hudson 24 S 2B .260 .276 .319 .443 4.78 24 20 23 4 0 1 207
Tom Wilson 31 R C .254 .257 .334 .385 4.52 32 33 37 8 0 0 302
Darrin Fletcher 35 L C .201 .220 .239 .339 2.52 9 8 22 3 0 0 134
Ken Huckaby 31 R C .201 .245 .270 .308 2.51 19 29 22 3 0 0 282
Dewayne Wise 24 L OF .185 .179 .207 .313 2.06 7 14 13 3 5 0 116
Joe Lawrence 25 R 2B .183 .180 .257 .247 1.99 9 16 15 2 2 1 171
Previous management committed the Jays to paying $3m to Homer Bush, whose main
contribution was to give pre-season interviews on veteran leadership:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jayson Werth 23 R RF .251 .261 .340 .348 4.36 5 4 6 0 1 0 53
Homer Bush 29 R 2B .201 .231 .268 .295 2.53 6 9 2 1 2 0 82
Brian Lesher 31 R 1B .110 .132 .209 .158 .56 1 2 2 0 0 0 43
Kevin Cash 24 R C .070 .143 .200 .143 .18 0 1 0 0 0 0 15
Pedro Swann 31 L OF -.120 .083 .154 .083 -.70 0 3 1 0 0 0 13
The Pitchers -.153 .095 .095 .095 -1.27 -1 1 0 0 0 0 21
Triples:
Shannon Stewart 6, Orlando Hudson 5, Jose Cruz 5, Chris Woodward 4,
Vernon Wells 4, Felipe Lopez 3, Eric Hinske 2, Carlos Delgado 2,
Dave Berg 2, Josh Phelps 1, Jayson Werth 1, Ken Huckaby 1, Raul Mondesi 1,
Dewayne Wise 1
Some think that high doubles totals from young players (e.g. Hinske, Wells,
Phelps) portends higher home run totals in future years:
Doubles (leaders):
Shannon Stewart 38, Eric Hinske 38, Carlos Delgado 34, Vernon Wells 34,
Dave Berg 26, Jose Cruz 26, Josh Phelps 20, Raul Mondesi 16
Times On Base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 255, Shannon Stewart 238, Eric Hinske 237, Vernon Wells 197,
Jose Cruz 165, Dave Berg 132, Chris Woodward 115, Josh Phelps 104
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Vernon Wells 445, Eric Hinske 409, Shannon Stewart 404, Carlos Delgado 365,
Jose Cruz 353, Dave Berg 275, Raul Mondesi 234, Chris Woodward 226
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Ken Huckaby 4.9, Josh Phelps 4.3, Felipe Lopez 3.9, Dewayne Wise 3.8,
Darrin Fletcher 3.3, Vernon Wells 3.1, Tom Wilson 2.8, Chris Woodward 2.8,
Orlando Hudson 2.5, Joe Lawrence 2.4, Dave Berg 2.2, Jose Cruz 2.1,
Raul Mondesi 1.8, Eric Hinske 1.8, Carlos Delgado 1.2, Shannon Stewart 1.1
The Jays often talked about giving Vernon Wells a rest, but seldom did:
Games Played (leaders):
Vernon Wells 159, Eric Hinske 151, Carlos Delgado 143, Shannon Stewart 141,
Jose Cruz 124, Dave Berg 109, Tom Wilson 96, Chris Woodward 90
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'02 Starting Pitchers
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Roy Halladay was one of the league's best pitchers. Pete Walker was claimed
off waivers and became the Jays' 2nd-best starter. Esteban Loaiza ($6.0m)
and Steve Parris ($3.8m) showed what $10 million can buy. Rookie Justin Miller
was a better than average pitcher after the All-Star Break:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Roy Halladay 25 R 19 7 2.93 .226 .224 .228 -5 239.3 8.4 2.3 .4 6.3
Pete Walker 33 R 10 5 4.33 .253 .259 .269 -7 139.3 9.2 3.3 1.2 5.2
Steve Parris 34 R 5 5 5.97 .280 .296 .282 8 75.3 11.5 4.2 1.6 5.7
Esteban Loaiza 30 R 9 10 5.71 .281 .276 .258 19 151.3 11.4 2.3 1.1 5.2
Justin Miller 24 R 9 5 5.54 .283 .276 .282 -3 102.3 9.1 5.8 1.1 6.0
Most of the April rotation was shelled:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Chris Carpenter 27 R 4 5 5.28 .271 .283 .273 6 73.3 10.9 3.3 1.4 5.5
Brandon Lyon 22 R 1 4 6.53 .295 .293 .294 1 62.0 11.3 2.8 2.0 4.4
Michael Smith 24 R 0 3 6.62 .300 .292 .282 3 35.3 11.0 5.1 .8 4.1
Luke Prokopec 24 R 2 9 6.78 .301 .304 .305 1 71.7 11.3 3.1 2.4 5.1
Brian Cooper 27 R 0 1 14.04 .394 .373 .377 0 8.3 15.1 4.3 5.4 3.2
TORONTO 78 84 4.81 .264 .264 .266 1438.3 9.4 3.7 1.1 6.2
Games Started:
Roy Halladay 34, Esteban Loaiza 25, Pete Walker 20, Justin Miller 18,
Steve Parris 14, Chris Carpenter 13, Luke Prokopec 12, Brandon Lyon 10,
Michael Smith 6, Mark Hendrickson 4, Scott Eyre 3, Brian Cooper 2,
Corey Thurman 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Roy Halladay 7.0, Esteban Loaiza 6.1, Chris Carpenter 5.6, Steve Parris 5.4,
Brian Cooper 4.2, Brandon Lyon 4.1, Justin Miller 4.1, Pete Walker 3.8,
Luke Prokopec 3.3, Michael Smith 2.5
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'02 Relief Pitchers
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Cliff Politte was the Jays' best reliever after the Jays acquired him for
Dan Plesac on May 26. Kelvim Escobar was mediocre in the "closer" role
like Billy Koch of a year before. Scott Eyre pitched much like Paul Quantrill
as a reliever, but then the Jays waived him. Corey Thurman was a Rule V draft:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Cliff Politte 28 R 1 3 3.61 .229 .197 .232 -10 57.3 5.8 3.0 .8 8.9
Kelvim Escobar 26 R 5 7 4.27 .250 .266 .259 5 78.0 8.7 5.1 1.2 9.8
Corey Thurman 23 R 2 3 4.37 .250 .275 .284 -3 68.0 8.6 6.0 1.5 7.4
Felix Heredia 27 L 1 2 3.61 .260 .257 .267 -3 52.3 8.8 4.5 .9 5.3
Scott Eyre 30 L 2 4 4.97 .266 .259 .242 7 63.3 9.8 4.1 .6 7.2
Scott Cassidy 26 R 1 4 5.73 .275 .254 .290 -14 66.0 7.1 4.4 1.6 6.5
Tall Mark Hendrickson was very effective in 4 starts at the end of the season.
The Jays always had lots of lefty relievers to call upon:
Age W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
M. Hendrickson 28 L 3 0 2.45 .204 .191 .238 -8 36.7 6.1 2.9 .2 5.2
Jason Kershner 25 L 0 0 1.69 .223 .280 .272 0 5.3 8.4 6.8 1.7 11.8
Scott Wiggins 26 L 0 0 3.38 .223 .360 .298 1 2.7 16.9 3.4 3.4 10.1
Dan Plesac 40 L 1 2 3.38 .223 .229 .233 0 13.3 7.4 4.1 .7 9.5
Brian Bowles 25 R 2 1 4.05 .259 .221 .241 -2 20.0 5.9 6.3 .0 8.6
Pedro Borbon 34 L 1 2 4.97 .274 .277 .294 -1 12.7 8.5 4.3 2.1 7.8
Pasqual Coco 24 R 0 1 18.00 .435 .512 .331 2 1.0 36.0 27.0 .0 .0
Bob File 25 R 0 1 18.90 .443 .366 .241 3 3.3 21.6 5.4 .0 5.4
Relief Appearances:
Kelvim Escobar 76, Scott Cassidy 58, Cliff Politte 55, Felix Heredia 53,
Scott Eyre 46, Corey Thurman 42, Dan Plesac 19, Brian Bowles 17,
Pete Walker 17, Pedro Borbon 16, Mark Hendrickson 12, Jason Kershner 10,
Luke Prokopec 10, Michael Smith 8, Justin Miller 7, Brandon Lyon 5,
Bob File 5, Scott Wiggins 3, Pasqual Coco 2
Saves:
Kelvim Escobar 38, Jason Kershner 1, Cliff Politte 1, Pete Walker 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Mark Hendrickson 2.3, Corey Thurman 1.6, Scott Eyre 1.3, Brian Bowles 1.2,
Scott Cassidy 1.1, Cliff Politte 1.0, Kelvim Escobar 1.0,
Felix Heredia 1.0, Scott Wiggins .9, Pedro Borbon .8, Dan Plesac .7,
Bob File .7, Jason Kershner .5, Pasqual Coco .5
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Where Are They Now?
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Alex Gonzalez hit about the same as his replacements:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Shawn Green LAD .316 .285 .385 .558 7.08 121 110 114 42 8 5 684
John Olerud SEA .316 .300 .402 .490 7.18 110 85 102 22 0 0 667
Brad Fullmer ANA .297 .289 .357 .531 6.61 75 75 59 19 10 3 479
Todd Greene TEX .278 .268 .276 .580 5.70 17 15 19 10 0 0 116
Tony Batista BAL .270 .244 .308 .457 4.81 90 90 87 31 5 4 681
Raul Mondesi NYY .262 .241 .315 .430 4.61 37 39 43 11 6 4 302
David Segui BAL .259 .263 .336 .368 4.34 12 10 16 2 0 0 107
Alex_s Gonzalez CHC .253 .248 .312 .425 4.30 64 58 61 18 5 3 564
Roberto Alomar NYM .253 .266 .332 .377 4.15 71 73 53 11 15 5 645
Michael Young TEX .239 .262 .308 .382 3.93 61 77 62 9 6 7 620
Brent Abernathy TAM .216 .242 .288 .311 2.93 39 46 40 2 10 4 496
Cesar Izturis LAD .197 .232 .253 .303 2.16 30 43 31 1 7 7 458
Homer Bush FLA .172 .222 .263 .222 1.58 3 7 5 0 2 1 57
Albert Castillo NYY .098 .135 .158 .216 .40 0 3 4 0 0 0 38
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Pat Borders SEA .412 .500 .500 .750 13.98 1 0 1 0 0 0 4
Jeff Kent SFG .315 .313 .368 .565 6.88 122 102 108 37 5 1 682
Fred McGriff CHC .287 .273 .352 .505 5.84 86 67 103 30 1 2 594
Jay Gibbons BAL .276 .247 .311 .482 5.08 75 71 69 28 1 3 541
Benito Santiago SFG .269 .278 .314 .450 4.62 66 56 74 16 4 2 513
Craig Wilson PIT .268 .267 .353 .447 5.20 52 48 57 16 2 3 419
Marty Cordova BAL .268 .253 .325 .434 4.74 65 55 64 18 1 6 511
Ryan Thompson MIL .266 .248 .295 .518 5.01 19 16 24 8 1 0 146
Ricke Henderson BOS .265 .223 .369 .352 5.00 26 40 16 5 8 2 222
Ruben Sierra SEA .264 .270 .319 .418 4.58 55 47 60 13 4 0 452
Greg Myers OAK .264 .222 .341 .382 4.59 20 15 21 6 0 0 170
Orlando Merced HOU .262 .287 .350 .434 5.17 32 35 30 6 4 0 280
Tomas Perez PHI .246 .250 .319 .392 4.09 24 22 20 5 1 0 235
Chris Stynes CHC .242 .241 .314 .374 3.84 22 25 26 5 1 1 220
Lee Stevens MON .241 .190 .318 .376 4.01 24 28 31 10 1 0 245
Lee Stevens CLE .234 .222 .285 .373 3.61 16 22 26 5 0 0 172
Miguel Cairo STL .230 .250 .307 .353 3.47 18 28 23 2 1 1 202
Mike Matheny STL .224 .244 .315 .317 3.24 29 31 35 3 1 3 355
Casey Blake MIN .184 .200 .273 .250 2.08 1 2 1 0 0 0 22
Dave Hollins PHI-.105 .118 .167 .118 -.49 0 1 0 0 0 1 18
Mike Coolbaugh STL-.119 .083 .154 .083 -.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
Abraham Nunez FLA-.142 .118 .118 .118 -.98 -1 2 1 0 0 1 17
Paul Quantrill pitched a lot better than Luke Prokopec, and Billy Koch
returned to his pre-2001 form with the A's:
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Woody Williams STL 9 4 2.53 .208 .224 .250 -13 103.3 7.3 2.2 .9 6.6
Paul Quantrill LAD 5 4 2.70 .233 .252 .237 6 76.7 9.4 2.9 .1 6.2
Scott Eyre SFG 0 0 1.59 .235 .261 .257 0 11.3 8.7 5.6 .0 5.6
Billy Koch OAK 11 4 3.27 .237 .237 .249 -6 93.7 7.0 4.4 .7 8.9
Kevin Beirne LAD 2 0 3.41 .240 .277 .302 -4 29.0 8.1 5.3 1.2 5.3
Peter Munro HOU 5 5 3.57 .244 .250 .243 4 80.7 9.9 2.6 .6 5.0
Chris Michalak TEX 0 2 4.40 .246 .305 .280 3 14.3 12.6 6.3 .6 3.1
David Wells NYY 19 7 3.75 .252 .249 .253 -3 206.3 9.2 2.0 .9 6.0
Omar Daal LAD 11 9 3.90 .257 .252 .277 -20 161.3 7.9 3.0 1.1 5.9
Roger Clemens NYY 13 6 4.35 .260 .251 .241 12 180.0 8.6 3.2 .9 9.6
Dan Plesac PHI 2 1 4.70 .264 .250 .281 -4 23.0 6.3 4.7 2.0 10.6
Graeme Lloyd FLA 2 2 4.44 .264 .254 .247 1 26.3 8.9 3.8 .3 6.8
Glendon Rusch MIL 10 16 4.70 .271 .271 .272 2 210.7 9.7 3.2 1.3 6.0
Gary Glover CHW 7 8 5.20 .271 .259 .280 -16 138.3 8.8 3.4 1.4 4.6
Frank Castillo BOS 6 15 5.07 .272 .262 .261 3 163.3 9.6 3.2 1.0 6.2
Pedro Borbon HOU 3 2 5.50 .278 .282 .270 4 37.7 9.8 4.5 1.7 9.3
Joey Hamilton CIN 4 10 5.27 .285 .270 .261 8 124.7 9.8 3.6 .8 6.1
Robert Person PHI 4 5 5.44 .290 .269 .289 -9 87.7 8.1 5.2 1.3 6.3
Graeme Lloyd MON 2 3 5.87 .291 .293 .274 4 30.7 12.0 2.3 1.5 5.0
Pat Hentgen BAL 0 4 7.77 .328 .329 .319 2 22.0 12.7 4.1 2.5 4.5
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Nerio Rodriguez CLE 0 0 .00 .000-.201 .231 0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0
Mark Guthrie NYM 5 3 2.44 .208 .220 .243 -5 48.0 6.6 3.6 .6 8.3
Ben Weber ANA 7 2 2.54 .209 .223 .241 -7 78.0 8.1 2.5 .5 5.0
Mike Timlin STL 1 3 2.51 .214 .221 .267 -14 61.0 7.1 1.0 1.3 5.2
Jose Mesa PHI 4 6 2.97 .223 .246 .253 -3 75.7 7.7 4.6 .6 7.6
Carlos Almanzar CIN 0 1 2.31 .224 .160 .235 -4 11.7 4.6 3.9 .0 5.4
Steve Karsay NYY 6 4 3.26 .227 .248 .249 0 88.3 8.9 3.1 .7 6.6
Mar Lukasiewicz ANA 2 0 3.86 .235 .274 .222 5 14.0 10.9 5.8 .0 9.6
Giovann Carrara LAD 6 3 3.28 .239 .267 .291 -12 90.7 8.2 3.2 1.4 5.6
Dave Weathers NYM 6 3 2.91 .240 .253 .262 -3 77.3 8.0 4.2 .7 7.1
Jim Mann HOU 0 1 4.09 .243 .250 .265 -2 22.0 7.8 2.9 1.2 7.8
Mike Timlin PHI 3 3 3.79 .248 .226 .285 -11 35.7 6.8 1.8 1.5 3.8
Jose Silva CIN 1 0 4.24 .255 .278 .297 -2 23.3 9.6 3.9 1.2 2.3
Steve Trachsel NYM 11 11 3.37 .257 .259 .269 -7 173.7 8.8 3.6 .8 5.4
Al Leiter NYM 13 13 3.48 .262 .258 .262 -1 204.3 8.5 3.0 1.0 7.6
Nerio Rodriguez STL 0 0 4.15 .295 .260 .300 -1 4.3 8.3 2.1 2.1 4.2
Tom Davey SDP 1 0 5.57 .302 .294 .270 3 21.0 9.9 4.7 .9 9.0
Tod Stottlemyre ARZ 0 2 7.52 .316 .296 .286 2 20.3 11.5 3.1 1.8 5.3
Aaron Small ATL 0 0 27.00 .538 .657 .330 1 .3 54.0 54.0 .0 27.0
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2002 American League Leaders
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Carlos Delgado was one of the best hitters in the league. Including defense,
Alex Rodriguez was probably the best overall player in the league:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 351 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jim Thome CLE .356 .304 .445 .677 10.37 129 101 118 52 1 2 613
Manny Ramirez BOS .353 .349 .450 .647 10.22 106 84 107 33 0 0 518
Jason Giambi NYY .345 .314 .435 .598 9.18 136 120 122 41 2 2 689
Alex Rodriguez TEX .324 .300 .392 .623 8.39 133 125 142 57 9 4 725
Mike Sweeney KAN .322 .340 .417 .563 8.27 94 81 86 24 9 7 545
Carlos Delgado TOR .318 .277 .406 .549 7.91 105 103 108 33 1 0 628
John Olerud SEA .316 .300 .402 .490 7.18 110 85 102 22 0 0 667
Bernie Williams NYY .316 .333 .415 .493 7.35 117 102 102 19 8 4 699
Magglio Ordonez CHW .315 .320 .381 .597 7.82 115 116 135 38 7 5 653
Rafael Palmeiro TEX .315 .273 .391 .571 7.79 111 99 105 43 1 0 663
Edgar Martinez SEA .314 .277 .403 .485 7.09 67 42 59 15 1 1 407
Tim Salmon ANA .299 .286 .380 .503 6.77 86 84 88 22 6 3 568
Ellis Burks CLE .299 .301 .362 .541 6.70 90 92 91 32 2 3 569
Aubrey Huff TAM .299 .313 .364 .520 6.60 77 67 59 23 4 1 494
. . .
Alfonso Soriano NYY .299 .300 .332 .547 6.40 123 128 102 39 41 13 739
Miguel Tejada OAK .298 .308 .353 .508 6.23 113 108 131 34 7 2 714
Roy Halladay led the league in innings pitched. Boston had 3 of the best
starting pitchers but didn't make the playoffs:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by REqA (minimum 118.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Derek Lowe BOS 21 8 2.58 .203 .200 .239 -42 219.7 6.8 2.0 .5 5.2
Pedro Martinez BOS 20 4 2.26 .207 .198 .207 -7 199.3 6.5 1.8 .6 10.8
Tim Wakefield BOS 11 5 2.81 .217 .215 .245 -25 163.3 6.7 2.8 .8 7.4
Jarrod Washburn ANA 18 6 3.15 .220 .230 .248 -19 206.0 8.0 2.6 .8 6.1
Barry Zito OAK 23 5 2.75 .222 .233 .259 -31 229.3 7.1 3.1 .9 7.1
Roy Halladay TOR 19 7 2.93 .226 .224 .228 -5 239.3 8.4 2.3 .4 6.3
Tim Hudson OAK 15 9 2.98 .227 .248 .253 -5 238.3 8.9 2.3 .7 5.7
Jamie Moyer SEA 13 8 3.32 .233 .236 .265 -34 230.7 7.7 2.0 1.1 5.7
Joel Pineiro SEA 14 7 3.24 .233 .255 .265 -10 194.3 8.8 2.5 1.1 6.3
Mark Buehrle CHW 19 12 3.58 .234 .241 .254 -16 239.0 8.9 2.3 .9 5.0
Ismael Valdes TEX 6 9 3.93 .237 .240 .267 -22 146.7 8.3 2.2 1.2 4.6
Jeff Weaver DET 6 8 3.18 .238 .231 .240 -6 121.7 8.3 2.4 .3 5.5
Ramon Ortiz ANA 15 9 3.77 .239 .246 .275 -33 217.3 7.8 2.8 1.7 6.7
Andy Pettitte NYY 13 5 3.27 .241 .247 .232 11 134.7 9.6 2.1 .4 6.5
Top 7 Relievers by REqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Buddy Groom BAL 3 2 1.60 .171 .197 .235 -11 62.0 6.4 1.7 .6 7.0
J.C. Romero MIN 9 2 1.89 .175 .214 .226 -5 81.0 6.9 4.0 .3 8.4
Troy Percival ANA 4 1 1.92 .178 .211 .229 -5 56.3 6.1 4.0 .8 10.9
Francis Cordero TEX 2 0 1.79 .193 .198 .220 -5 45.3 6.6 2.6 .4 8.1
Latroy Hawkins MIN 6 0 2.13 .198 .197 .221 -9 80.3 7.1 1.7 .6 7.1
Arthur Rhodes SEA 10 4 2.33 .198 .178 .203 -7 69.7 5.8 1.7 .5 10.5
Damaso Marte CHW 1 1 2.83 .207 .210 .220 -3 60.3 6.6 2.7 .7 10.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theory Stuff, 2002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Jays finished 2 wins below their Pythagorean record:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) ANA 101-61 .625 | ( 1) MIN 8
( 2) BOS 100-62 .615 | ( 2) OAK 7
( 3) NYY 99-62 .613 | ( 3) NYY 4
( 4) OAK 96-66 .591 | ( 4) DET 3
( 5) SEA 92-70 .569 | ( 5) CLE 2
( 6) MIN 86-75 .535 | ( 6) SEA 1
( 7) CHW 86-76 .532 | ( 7) TOR -2
( 8) TOR 80-82 .492 | ( 8) ANA -2
( 9) TEX 78-84 .479 | ( 9) BAL -3
(10) CLE 72-90 .443 | (10) TAM -3
(11) BAL 70-92 .433 | (11) KAN -5
(12) KAN 67-95 .414 | (12) CHW -5
(13) TAM 58-103 .362 | (13) TEX -6
(14) DET 52-109 .322 | (14) BOS -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National League
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Arizona 5.10 | ( 1) Atlanta 3.47 | ( 1) Atlanta 101-59 .631
( 2) Colorado 4.91 | ( 2)SanFrancisco 3.86 | ( 2) Arizona 98-64 .605
( 3)SanFrancisco 4.90 | ( 3) Los Angeles 3.97 | ( 3) St. Louis 97-65 .599
( 4) St. Louis 4.90 | ( 4) St. Louis 4.03 | ( 4)SanFrancisco 95-66 .590
( 5) Houston 4.67 | ( 5) Arizona 4.19 | ( 5) Los Angeles 92-70 .568
( 6) Montreal 4.55 | ( 6) Houston 4.33 | ( 6) Houston 84-78 .519
( 7) Cubs 4.41 | ( 7) NYMets 4.39 | ( 7) Montreal 83-79 .512
( 8)Philadelphia 4.41 | ( 8) Montreal 4.45 | ( 8)Philadelphia 80-81 .497
( 9) Los Angeles 4.40 | ( 9)Philadelphia 4.49 | ( 9) Florida 79-83 .488
(10) Cincinnati 4.39 | (10) Pittsburgh 4.66 | (10) Cincinnati 78-84 .481
(11) Atlanta 4.34 | (11) Florida 4.72 | (11) NYMets 75-86 .466
(12) Florida 4.32 | (12) Cubs 4.74 | (12) Colorado 73-89 .451
(13) NYMets 4.30 | (13) Cincinnati 4.79 | (13) Pittsburgh 72-89 .447
(14) San Diego 4.15 | (14) San Diego 5.11 | (14) Cubs 67-95 .414
(15) Pittsburgh 4.10 | (15) Milwaukee 5.16 | (15) San Diego 66-96 .407
(16) Milwaukee 3.94 | (16) Colorado 5.66 | (16) Milwaukee 56-106 .346
Avg 4.49 Avg 4.50 1296-1290
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SFG ARZ STL LAD FLA NYM SDP CHC ATL CIN MON PHI HOU PIT MIL COL
.280 .271 .268 .265 .261 .261 .260 .260 .259 .258 .258 .257 .256 .248 .245 .243
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL STL HOU ARZ SFG LAD MON COL PHI PIT NYM CIN CHC FLA MIL SDP
.237 .248 .248 .250 .254 .255 .255 .258 .259 .261 .263 .267 .268 .271 .273 .283
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 11 12 12 14 15 16
COL HOU MON PIT ARZ MIL PHI STL CIN CHC ATL FLA NYM LAD SDP SFG
29.0 8.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 -.5 -2.0 -2.5 -5.0 -5.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) SFG 98-63 .608 | ( 1) ATL 5
( 2) ATL 96-64 .602 | ( 2) FLA 4
( 3) ARZ 95-67 .588 | ( 3) CIN 3
( 4) STL 95-67 .588 | ( 4) LAD 3
( 5) LAD 89-73 .547 | ( 5) ARZ 3
( 6) HOU 87-75 .534 | ( 6) COL 3
( 7) MON 83-79 .511 | ( 7) STL 2
( 8) NYM 79-82 .491 | ( 8) PHI 1
( 9) PHI 79-82 .491 | ( 9) PIT 1
(10) CHC 76-86 .467 | (10) MON 0
(11) FLA 75-87 .460 | (11) SDP 0
(12) CIN 75-87 .460 | (12) HOU -3
(13) PIT 71-90 .441 | (13) SFG -3
(14) COL 70-92 .435 | (14) NYM -4
(15) SDP 66-96 .406 | (15) MIL -5
(16) MIL 61-101 .379 | (16) CHC -9
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 351 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Barry Bonds SFG .444 .370 .582 .799 16.25 172 117 110 46 9 2 610
Brian Giles PIT .339 .298 .448 .622 9.31 121 95 103 38 15 6 641
Chipper Jones ATL .327 .327 .435 .536 8.10 116 90 100 26 8 2 662
Sammy Sosa CHC .323 .288 .400 .594 7.86 119 122 108 49 2 0 667
Jim Edmonds STL .320 .311 .420 .561 7.96 98 96 83 28 4 3 576
Cliff Floyd FLA .320 .287 .414 .537 7.46 64 49 57 18 10 5 362
Vladim Guerrero MON .320 .334 .415 .591 8.11 126 106 109 39 40 20 708
Shawn Green LAD .316 .285 .385 .558 7.08 121 110 114 42 8 5 684
Ryan Klesko SDP .315 .300 .388 .537 6.97 108 90 95 29 6 2 624
Jeff Kent SFG .315 .313 .368 .565 6.88 122 102 108 37 5 1 682
Gary Sheffield ATL .311 .307 .404 .512 7.12 94 82 84 25 12 2 579
Bobby Abreu PHI .311 .308 .413 .521 7.37 112 102 85 20 31 12 685
Albert Pujols STL .309 .314 .394 .561 7.29 111 118 127 34 2 4 675
Lance Berkman HOU .308 .292 .405 .578 7.73 111 106 128 42 8 4 692
Austin Kearns CIN .305 .315 .406 .500 6.91 67 66 56 13 6 3 434
Pat Burrell PHI .301 .282 .375 .544 6.78 106 96 116 37 1 0 683
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by REqA (minimum 118.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Randy Johnson ARZ 24 5 2.32 .210 .218 .221 0 260.0 6.8 2.5 .9 11.6
Roy Oswalt HOU 19 9 3.01 .223 .228 .227 4 233.0 8.3 2.4 .7 8.0
Greg Maddux ATL 16 6 2.62 .224 .241 .249 -7 199.3 8.8 2.0 .6 5.3
Wade Miller HOU 15 4 3.28 .227 .237 .239 0 164.7 8.3 3.4 .8 7.9
Curt Schilling ARZ 23 7 3.23 .227 .217 .215 7 259.3 7.6 1.1 1.0 11.0
Randy Wolf PHI 11 9 3.20 .229 .231 .253 -22 210.7 7.3 2.7 1.0 7.3
Odalis Perez LAD 15 10 3.00 .230 .223 .252 -29 222.3 7.4 1.5 .9 6.3
Tom Glavine ATL 18 11 2.96 .235 .250 .267 -20 224.7 8.4 3.1 .8 5.1
Kevin Millwood ATL 18 8 3.24 .236 .233 .244 -11 217.0 7.7 2.7 .7 7.4
Elmer Dessens CIN 7 8 3.03 .237 .255 .275 -18 178.0 8.7 2.5 1.2 4.7
Vicente Padilla PHI 14 11 3.28 .238 .243 .252 -8 206.0 8.7 2.3 .7 5.6
Matt Morris STL 17 9 3.42 .239 .248 .242 9 210.3 9.0 2.7 .7 7.3
Tomokazu Ohka MON 13 8 3.18 .242 .246 .253 -5 192.7 9.1 2.1 .9 5.5
Denny Stark COL 11 4 4.00 .242 .239 .277 -31 128.3 7.6 4.5 1.8 4.5
Matt Clement CHC 12 11 3.60 .242 .234 .244 -8 205.0 7.1 3.7 .8 9.4
Jason Jennings COL 16 8 4.52 .244 .249 .248 4 185.3 9.8 3.4 1.3 6.2
Top 8 Relievers by REqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA REqA CEqA DEqA dH IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
Joey Eischen MON 6 1 1.34 .180 .210 .214 -1 53.7 7.2 3.0 .2 8.6
Octavio Dotel HOU 6 4 1.85 .180 .179 .207 -11 97.3 5.4 2.5 .6 10.9
Chris Hammond ATL 7 2 .95 .181 .200 .226 -9 76.0 6.3 3.7 .1 7.5
Mike Crudale STL 3 0 1.88 .183 .214 .225 -2 52.7 7.3 2.4 .5 8.0
Darren Holmes ATL 2 2 1.81 .189 .205 .228 -6 54.7 6.8 2.0 .5 7.7
Byung-hyun Kim ARZ 8 3 2.04 .191 .215 .222 -2 84.0 6.9 2.8 .5 9.9
Eric Gagne LAD 4 1 1.97 .192 .195 .201 -1 82.3 6.0 1.7 .7 12.5
Mike Remlinger ATL 7 3 1.99 .199 .210 .228 -5 68.0 6.4 3.7 .4 9.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.002 in 2002
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj -- this report's ERP columns are actually ERPDisplay
Age: as of July 1, 2002
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 813 runs, allowed 828 runs,
and pitched 1438.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.85 in 2002)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.85 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2002 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2002, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.85
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (AB+BB+HBP+SF)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
DRA: R27 when replacing Hits with 0.300 * (estimatedAB - HR - K) + HR,
and adding the change in Hits to Outs recorded
dH: the difference in Hits (see DRA)
(the (not quite true) theory is that this number should be 0,
assuming an average quality defense, so a positive difference
is "unlucky", a negative difference is "lucky")
REqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on RA (.260 is average)
CEqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on R27 (.260 is average)
DEqA: Opponents' Equivalent Average based on DRA (.260 is average)
H/9: Hits Allowed per 9 innings
BB/9: Walks allowed per 9 innings
HR/9: Home Runs allowed per 9 innings
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.8/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2002 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 2002
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .057*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2002
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .47*SB in 2002
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .962 in 2002
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.49 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2002 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2002, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.49
Pitching Stats Glossary:
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.6/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 2002 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 2002
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .061*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2002
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .47*SB in 2002
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site,
http://home.rmi.mindspring.com/~doug/2002.html
and is unofficial.
Games by position derived from data on the USA Today web site
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/sba/sba02gp.htm
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
DEqA and dH are inspired by the Defense Independent Pitching Stats work
of Voros McCracken (http://www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html)
but my calculations contain differences.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@magma.ca Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Last Updated: 2002 Oct 2
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.