"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesHow would the 2000 Blue Jay minor leaguers have performed in the major leagues?
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
Bill James' landmark study in 1985 showed that, if interpreted properly, minor league statistics for AAA batters can tell you as much about the player as major league statistics do. Today, James runs "Major League Equivalencies" (MLEs) for AAA and AA batters in the annual STATS Minor League Handbook.
Below, I've used a less-detailed technique than James' to estimate how every Jays minor leaguer would have performed in the majors in '00. There isn't any research to back up the exact approach I'm using, but the results seem similar to what James' gets for AAA and AA batters most of the time. I'm not aware of any research that says you can extend the technique to pitchers or extend it to batters below AA-level, but it's still fun to see what the estimates are.
For ease of understanding, the performance measure used is EqA, which stands for "Equivalent Average", and was invented by Clay Davenport, who now runs EqAs for minor and major league batters in the annual Baseball Prospectus. EqA is simple to understand:
i.e. EqA is on the same scale as batting average. But EqA is based not just on hits and at bats, but also on power, walks and base stealing. It's also adjusted for park factor and the league average offense level so that .260 in Colorado means the same as .260 in Toronto.
To produce EqA for minor leaguers, two more important adjustments are made:
The exact formulas are given in the glossary.
The other stats listed are the original ones. Chad Mottola had a .309 Batting Average in Syracuse, so I list his BA as .309. I don't try to figure out what his batting average would have been for the Jays (unlike Bill James MLEs). The only number I show that has any adjustments to it is EqA.
Note: These numbers are preliminary. In particular, I'm missing ages for some players. This report will be updated sometime this winter.
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Syracuse SkyChiefs 74-66 (through games of 9/04/00) -- AAA
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Prospect Age: 24, Competitive Adjustment: 1.20, Park Factor: 1.05
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=4.96, R/ERP=1.03, R/ER=1.13
Nobody's hitting impressed at Syracuse. Ryan Freel played second-base
after Abernathy was traded, but he played less than a full season.
The age adjustments suggest Mottola and Lopez would have been below-
average hitters (an EqA of .260 is average). Witt was dropped from the
roster after a subpar season. Vernon Wells did not hit as well as
Jose Cruz did for Toronto. Cesar Izturis is far from ready:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ryan Freel 24 R 2B .274 .286 .380 .477 6.74 54 62 30 10 30 7 329
Chad Mottola 28 R OF .256 .309 .359 .566 7.03 98 85 102 33 30 15 552
Andy Thompson 24 R OF .255 .246 .334 .474 5.60 70 59 65 22 9 2 491
Luis Lopez 26 R 3B .249 .328 .384 .430 6.03 77 64 79 7 3 1 549
Kevin Witt 24 L 1B .246 .247 .316 .476 5.14 73 58 72 26 1 1 538
X-Vernon Wells 21 R OF .240 .243 .313 .432 4.83 70 76 66 16 23 4 550
1-Bren Abernathy 22 R 2B .236 .296 .343 .399 4.63 47 47 35 4 14 13 388
Charlie Greene 29 R C .175 .225 .279 .326 2.86 23 23 26 5 1 3 287
Cesar Izturis 20 S SS .174 .218 .253 .278 2.15 29 54 27 0 21 11 458
Kevin Brown would have been a good replacement for Castillo, and probably
could have stepped in next year if the Jays lost Fletcher, but apparently
the Jays didn't agree (Brown was traded):
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
1-Mar Dalesandro 32 R C .332 .333 .3331.333 16.13 1 1 1 1 0 0 3
Chris Woodward 24 R 2B .280 .322 .370 .545 7.10 26 23 25 5 2 0 154
1-Kevin Brown 27 R C .258 .335 .362 .547 6.92 32 26 29 7 0 0 188
X-Todd Greene 29 R OF .245 .297 .337 .560 6.64 16 14 14 7 1 0 98
X-Casey Blake 26 R 3B .192 .217 .291 .349 3.16 10 10 7 2 0 3 117
Selwyn Langaigne 24 L OF .188 .239 .255 .348 2.61 4 3 0 0 0 1 47
1-Jaco Brumfield 35 R OF .180 .233 .267 .419 3.84 5 5 4 1 1 0 45
Willis Otanez 27 R 3B .156 .171 .229 .289 1.96 5 6 14 2 0 0 83
Rob Mummau 28 R 3B .121 .161 .225 .206 1.09 5 13 8 0 0 0 169
Brian Loyd 26 R C .092 .135 .193 .192 .51 1 2 4 1 0 2 57
X-Ryan Fleming 24 L OF .065 .182 .182 .182 .18 0 1 1 0 0 0 11
X-Alex Gonzalez 27 R SS -.174 .000 .000 .000 -2.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
SYRACUSE .240 .264 .324 .429 4.82 647 632 609149 136 63 5119
Estrella pitched better for Syracuse than he did for Tennessee. Bale is
over-age for a prospect, and only pitched 79 innings. Clayton Andrews is
still a good prospect, but wasn't ready in 2000:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Leo Estrella 25 R 5 4 4.01 4.22 3.51 89.7 .259 .215 .303 .340 8 4.8
John Bale 26 L 3 4 3.19 3.99 3.92 79.0 .262 .234 .329 .333 4 8.0
Clayton Andrews 22 L 8 7 4.82 4.91 5.14 102.7 .278 .285 .353 .415 8 5.2
Kerry Taylor 29 R 9 8 3.32 3.78 4.38 135.7 .282 .237 .325 .387 16 5.5
Gary Glover 23 R 9 9 5.02 5.62 5.18 166.7 .284 .274 .336 .433 21 6.4
Munro was traded for Dave Martinez:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Peter Munro 25 R 4 3 2.48 2.92 3.31 61.7 .235 .235 .317 .310 1 6.6
X-Mike Romano 28 R 6 3 3.25 3.25 3.98 63.7 .266 .230 .313 .374 7 4.8
2-Pat Daneker 24 R 1 1 3.29 3.95 6.29 13.7 .277 .333 .362 .522 2 2.6
X-Joey Hamilton 29 R 3 2 3.66 4.12 4.40 39.3 .287 .281 .343 .373 1 3.9
Roy Halladay 23 R 2 3 5.50 5.62 5.45 73.7 .289 .290 .342 .460 10 4.6
Cubillan was part of the trade for Esteban Loiaza. Medina pitched well.
Matt DeWitt was far from ready:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Darwi Cubillan 25 R 3 1 .55 .55 .85 32.7 .131 .130 .230 .164 0 11.3
Rafael Medina 25 R 3 1 2.80 2.96 3.23 54.7 .236 .190 .319 .268 2 5.4
Mark Lukasiewicz 27 L 2 1 3.48 3.70 4.90 41.3 .279 .228 .339 .417 7 11.3
Matt Dewitt 22 R 4 5 4.87 5.85 5.67 64.7 .290 .298 .357 .439 6 5.7
X-Eric Gunderson 34 L 0 3 2.67 4.00 4.36 27.0 .306 .255 .330 .376 2 5.7
X-Brend Donnelly 28 R 4 6 5.48 7.17 6.02 42.7 .332 .278 .379 .432 5 7.2
Eichhorn pitched great; too bad he retired before the Jays called him up.
Robert File is a prospect who gets little attention, though he didn't pitch
so well in Tennessee:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Mark Eichhorn 39 R 1 0 1.10 1.10 .13 16.3 .147 .091 .123 .214 2 9.4
Robert File 23 R 2 0 .93 .93 2.18 19.3 .173 .212 .246 .309 1 4.7
Jason Bell 25 R 3 4 4.97 5.40 4.50 41.7 .285 .272 .337 .397 3 6.0
X-Kurt Bogott 27 L 1 0 4.01 4.38 6.11 24.7 .301 .278 .383 .473 4 6.2
X-Robert Ellis 29 R 1 1 4.50 5.00 6.18 18.0 .320 .262 .415 .415 2 9.0
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Tennessee Smokies 71-69 (through games of 9/04/00) -- AA
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Prospect Age: 23, Competitive Adjustment: 1.44, Park Factor: 1.06
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=4.42, R/ERP=1.04, R/ER=1.17
Jay Gibbons was the best hitter in the minors for the Jays this year,
but this was his first good year, so he might not be ready yet. Mike Young
was given up in the Esteban Loiaza trade. Felipe Lopez is far from ready:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jay Gibbons 23 L 1B .281 .321 .404 .525 7.65 95 85 75 19 3 1 552
Mike Peeples 23 R OF .249 .280 .350 .465 5.63 76 70 73 18 11 8 532
X-Mike Young 23 R 2B .241 .275 .340 .426 5.22 51 51 47 6 16 5 388
Tim Giles 24 L 1B .227 .264 .349 .408 4.92 56 43 56 13 1 6 456
Felipe Lopez 20 S SS .211 .257 .303 .371 3.72 51 52 41 9 12 11 498
Robert Perez 31 R OF .203 .287 .325 .455 5.03 77 66 92 19 8 7 582
Scott Sollmann 25 L OF .201 .236 .339 .304 3.79 44 66 27 0 19 10 449
X-Selw Langaigne 24 L OF .180 .244 .314 .272 2.75 18 26 22 0 1 5 236
Tony Schifano 25 R 3B .178 .233 .297 .284 2.79 23 24 24 1 6 4 303
If Joe Lawrence can really catch, he'd be a good replacement for Castillo:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mike Kremblas 24 R C .252 .275 .422 .377 6.38 13 16 6 1 1 1 90
X-Dewayne Wise 22 L OF .252 .250 .333 .518 5.82 10 10 8 2 3 2 63
Joe Lawrence 23 R C .249 .263 .407 .331 5.64 21 22 9 0 7 1 167
X-Willis Otanez 27 R 3B .248 .320 .383 .515 6.98 19 13 19 5 0 0 115
X-Ryan Freel 24 R OF .244 .295 .400 .409 5.85 8 11 8 0 2 3 55
X-Brian Loyd 26 R C .231 .299 .392 .376 5.58 30 21 23 1 7 3 227
Josh Phelps 22 R C .230 .228 .308 .435 4.64 25 23 28 9 1 0 208
Orlando Hudson 20 S 3B .217 .239 .320 .358 4.01 16 17 15 2 3 2 153
Ryan Fleming 24 L OF .186 .171 .310 .267 2.99 10 16 9 2 2 1 126
X-Pau Chiaffredo 24 R C -.032 .111 .188 .127 -.04 0 6 2 0 0 1 69
X-Dorian Speed 26 R OF -.129 .074 .074 .074 -1.31 0 2 0 0 2 1 27
TENNESSEE .232 .265 .341 .397 4.74 641 640 584107 105 72 5296
Pasqual Coco got an emergency start for the Jays vs the Mets.
Sneed did not impress at Tennessee and was traded to Philadelphia:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pasqual Coco 22 R 12 7 3.76 4.46 4.49 167.7 .295 .244 .331 .377 16 7.6
Mike Kusiewicz 23 L 7 9 3.63 4.79 4.37 156.0 .296 .247 .321 .376 14 6.6
X-Leo Estrella 25 R 5 5 3.67 4.26 4.40 76.0 .307 .246 .339 .371 6 7.5
Matt McClellan 23 R 6 12 4.80 5.34 4.97 168.7 .314 .265 .343 .401 16 7.5
X-John Sneed 24 R 5 9 4.54 6.02 4.98 121.0 .329 .263 .349 .385 9 7.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Aaron Dean 23 R 0 1 1.50 1.50 6.12 6.0 .278 .227 .393 .411 1 6.0
Ryan Spille 23 L 1 1 4.18 4.18 4.30 23.7 .292 .271 .340 .374 1 3.0
Mark Hendrickson 26 L 3 1 3.63 3.86 3.47 39.7 .295 .216 .275 .366 5 6.6
Scott Cassidy 24 R 2 2 5.91 6.33 6.04 42.7 .350 .289 .354 .481 7 8.2
X-Gustavo Chacin 20 L 0 2 12.60 12.60 13.78 5.0 .460 .417 .548 .640 1 9.0
This was Bowles' first good year:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Brian Bowles 23 R 4 4 2.98 3.42 3.23 81.7 .262 .218 .317 .284 1 7.9
Rendy Espina 22 L 6 1 2.11 3.32 3.82 59.7 .266 .224 .341 .295 1 6.2
X-Bob File 24 R 4 3 3.12 5.19 3.10 34.7 .289 .215 .291 .292 1 10.4
Matt Weimer 25 R 4 3 4.60 5.17 5.17 62.7 .331 .281 .347 .423 6 4.5
Clint Lawrence 23 L 3 3 5.30 5.47 6.93 54.3 .339 .288 .404 .451 7 5.1
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jon McBride R 2 2 2.39 2.69 3.13 60.3 .249 .229 .269 .350 5 5.5
Jarrod Kingrey 23 R 2 0 2.12 3.18 3.71 17.0 .262 .193 .365 .244 0 8.5
X-Jason Bell 25 R 4 3 3.53 4.79 3.32 35.7 .296 .233 .290 .336 2 8.1
X-Ma Lukasiewicz 27 L 0 0 5.79 5.79 6.05 4.7 .365 .222 .364 .433 1 11.6
X-David Huggins 24 R 1 1 8.38 9.31 5.65 9.7 .377 .270 .413 .341 0 9.3
Tim Giles 24 R 0 0 27.00 36.00 19.03 1.0 .626 .500 .625 .632 0 .0
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Dunedin Blue Jays 84-54 (through games of 9/03/00) -- A+
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Prospect Age: 22, Competitive Adjustment: 1.73, Park Factor: 1.04
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=4.77, R/ERP=1.07, R/ER=1.21
Lawrence was promoted to Tennessee and continued to have a replacement-level
EqA:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Joe Lawrence 23 R C .248 .301 .414 .496 7.52 78 69 67 13 21 7 452
Tyler Thompson 24 R OF .224 .280 .367 .460 6.12 60 51 57 11 20 5 401
Matt Logan 20 L 1B .223 .279 .348 .426 5.30 55 58 55 9 4 1 422
Garr Haltiwanger 25 R OF .220 .291 .362 .469 6.10 60 57 56 10 18 4 395
X-Glenn Williams 22 R 2B .219 .261 .323 .448 5.04 56 53 77 13 4 2 436
Tony Peters 25 R OF .218 .268 .373 .442 5.98 78 97 61 15 23 8 536
X-Orlando Hudson 20 S 3B .217 .285 .354 .399 4.98 50 54 48 7 9 5 398
X-Ryan Fleming 24 L OF .208 .304 .359 .408 5.06 43 42 32 4 6 8 343
Jersen Perez 24 R SS .193 .271 .301 .415 4.24 61 69 64 8 8 4 538
Phelps didn't hit so well in Tennessee:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Shanno Stewart 26 R OF .5381.0001.0001.333 59.81 2 2 1 0 0 1 5
X-Shawn Pearson 22 R OF .381 .600 .636 .700 20.29 3 3 3 0 0 0 11
X-Selw Langaigne 24 L OF .362 .600 .636 .700 20.29 3 2 1 0 0 0 11
X-Ryan Freel 24 R OF .353 .500 .5001.056 19.13 7 7 6 3 0 0 18
Josh Phelps 22 R C .279 .319 .386 .699 9.29 28 26 34 12 0 0 127
Brandon Jackson 24 R 2B .254 .313 .429 .438 8.38 4 6 2 0 2 0 21
X-Joss Bernhardt 19 R SS .251 .250 .400 .500 7.11 1 0 3 0 0 0 5
Reed Johnson 23 R OF .249 .316 .416 .504 7.65 27 26 28 4 3 2 161
X-Mike Kremblas 24 R C .237 .281 .460 .344 7.08 13 15 10 0 1 0 87
Paul Chiaffredo 24 R C .229 .289 .386 .474 6.50 7 7 6 2 0 0 44
Chris Weekly 23 L 3B .210 .250 .341 .433 5.00 18 23 22 5 0 2 138
Mike Strange 26 R 3B .200 .250 .426 .306 5.01 6 6 2 0 0 2 47
Mike Rodriguez 25 R 3B .194 .274 .359 .345 4.47 28 34 23 1 1 3 259
Fausto Solano 26 R 2B .184 .241 .330 .342 4.09 19 20 22 2 6 2 182
Joe Dusan 22 L 1B .176 .198 .283 .310 2.95 18 30 19 5 1 1 226
X-Todd Greene 29 R OF .176 .200 .304 .400 4.17 3 2 4 1 0 0 23
X-Ryan Bundy 22 R DH -.167 .000 .000 .000 -2.59 0 1 0 0 0 0 5
DUNEDIN .227 .279 .358 .436 5.55 727 760 703125 127 57 5291
Cassidy didn't pitch this well in Tennessee:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Scott Cassidy 24 R 9 3 1.33 1.53 2.26 88.0 .233 .177 .265 .260 4 9.1
Charles Kegley 20 R 3 9 3.88 4.85 4.80 111.3 .319 .241 .367 .345 6 5.3
Joe Casey 21 R 10 8 4.21 5.00 4.65 158.3 .321 .259 .354 .361 7 5.5
X-Ryan Spille 23 L 10 6 4.27 4.51 4.51 109.7 .326 .264 .327 .395 9 6.7
Gustavo Chacin 20 L 9 5 4.02 4.86 5.60 127.7 .331 .269 .352 .414 14 5.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Lance Painter 32 L 0 0 .00 .00 -2.88 1.0-.240 .000 .000 .000 0 .0
Yan Lachapelle 24 R 5 1 2.60 3.58 3.59 55.3 .297 .209 .306 .318 4 8.0
X-Peter Munro 25 R 0 1 5.56 5.56 3.65 11.3 .343 .256 .319 .323 0 9.5
X-Ma Hendrickson 26 L 2 2 5.61 5.96 7.00 51.3 .397 .315 .393 .494 7 6.7
Aaron Dean 23 R 1 0 6.46 8.80 7.07 15.3 .401 .324 .390 .449 1 7.6
This was Woodards' first good year:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Orlando Woodards 22 R 8 1 2.27 2.68 2.93 87.3 .258 .207 .284 .296 4 7.1
Scott Porter 23 R 1 2 2.67 3.74 2.64 33.7 .278 .172 .284 .265 2 11.0
Chris Baker 22 R 9 5 3.20 4.33 3.77 104.0 .296 .226 .285 .360 11 7.4
X-Jarrod Kingrey 23 R 4 2 2.97 4.58 4.24 39.3 .315 .224 .337 .321 2 8.0
Doug Dimma 21 L 6 3 3.84 5.20 5.16 79.7 .327 .247 .364 .366 6 4.7
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Mark Eichhorn 39 R 0 0 .00 .00 .18 5.3 .078 .158 .158 .199 0 13.5
Robert Hamann 23 R 2 1 1.50 1.88 2.58 24.0 .243 .195 .256 .313 2 5.3
Travis Hubbel 21 R 0 0 3.38 3.38 6.05 5.3 .320 .235 .316 .619 2 5.1
Taylor Smith 21 R 0 1 3.52 7.43 3.83 23.0 .327 .236 .310 .329 1 7.8
Hugo Castellanos 20 R 0 0 4.50 4.50 5.90 8.0 .334 .200 .417 .362 1 5.6
Eric Place 25 L 5 2 4.24 5.21 5.69 46.7 .360 .269 .381 .386 3 6.2
X-Woody Heath 24 R 0 2 6.30 7.65 7.93 20.0 .409 .346 .454 .472 1 5.0
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Hagerstown Suns 63-74 (through games of 9/04/00) -- A
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Prospect Age: 21, Competitive Adjustment: 2.07, Park Factor: 1.08
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=4.72, R/ERP=1.11, R/ER=1.23
Shannon Carter, picked up in the Guzman trade, probably won't be another Joe:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Reed Johnson 23 R OF .227 .290 .422 .469 7.52 67 66 70 8 14 2 403
X-Brando Jackson 24 R SS .206 .312 .391 .435 6.17 65 71 52 5 5 6 455
X-Kevin Cash 20 R C .205 .245 .323 .459 5.09 30 28 27 10 5 3 220
X-Josh Holliday 23 S 1B .200 .220 .381 .372 5.48 36 46 29 6 2 0 281
X-Chris Weekly 23 L 2B .199 .291 .350 .453 5.39 35 21 49 7 2 5 260
Shannon Carter 21 L OF .197 .273 .355 .339 4.59 58 74 39 0 33 6 499
Jaime Goudie 21 R 2B .184 .243 .315 .347 3.89 48 53 51 6 26 10 460
Kurt Keene 22 R 1B .163 .261 .299 .332 3.12 18 16 25 1 4 6 211
X-Rob Cosby 19 R 3B .158 .237 .275 .309 2.64 23 31 29 4 2 3 309
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Pau Chiaffredo 24 R C .253 .356 .491 .556 10.32 12 9 5 1 0 0 57
X-Aaron Fera 22 R OF .193 .241 .340 .380 4.77 23 22 32 4 5 0 194
Jimmy Alvarez 20 S 2B .192 .232 .346 .335 4.32 21 19 15 3 12 5 182
Shawn Fagan 22 R 3B .192 .279 .351 .372 4.70 23 20 23 2 5 1 191
Dwayne Pugh R OF .182 .133 .381 .133 3.81 2 2 0 0 2 0 21
Alvin Morrow 22 R OF .178 .210 .314 .352 3.92 13 15 8 4 2 0 121
Ryan Bundy 22 R OF .178 .230 .316 .368 3.92 10 10 13 2 2 2 98
X-Mike Snyder 19 L 1B .168 .182 .318 .261 3.10 16 26 13 1 4 1 198
Juan Santos 22 S 1B .151 .146 .250 .317 2.61 4 4 5 2 1 1 48
X-Alexis Rios 19 R DH .146 .230 .256 .297 2.19 5 5 5 0 2 3 78
X-Auntwa Riggins 24 S OF .139 .221 .273 .246 2.29 14 25 9 0 16 4 209
Douglas Roper 22 S SS .137 .171 .284 .197 2.03 5 16 9 0 3 0 88
X-Guiller Quiroz 18 R C .134 .162 .269 .213 1.75 8 14 12 1 0 1 156
Jose Umbria 22 R C .132 .209 .275 .231 1.85 5 3 8 0 0 2 102
Chivas Clark 21 L OF .131 .159 .264 .212 1.65 6 15 10 0 1 2 129
Shawn Pearson 22 R OF .120 .141 .269 .163 1.47 5 9 5 0 4 2 108
X-Joss Bernhardt 19 R SS .073 .125 .125 .250 .38 0 1 0 0 0 0 8
HAGERSTOWN .189 .245 .334 .350 4.18 551 621 543 67 152 65 5086
Matt Ford finished the season on the disabled list with an elbow injury,
but is expected to be back next year:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Matt Ford 19 L 5 3 3.87 4.52 4.74 83.7 .336 .261 .340 .374 5 9.3
X-Aaron Dean 23 R 8 3 3.28 4.39 3.99 112.7 .337 .236 .304 .350 8 7.1
Cameron Reimers 21 R 7 11 3.73 4.61 4.88 154.3 .338 .265 .336 .381 10 6.5
X-Travis Hubbel 21 R 8 6 3.97 4.92 4.83 113.3 .341 .253 .354 .367 7 6.0
Marcos Sandoval 19 R 8 13 4.56 5.77 5.98 163.7 .367 .289 .351 .449 20 5.5
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Ryan Houston 20 R 5 1 2.21 2.21 1.80 36.7 .244 .143 .250 .226 2 6.6
Frankl Gracesqui 20 L 0 1 4.91 4.91 6.05 7.3 .363 .174 .424 .339 1 7.4
Pete Bauer 21 R 1 5 5.06 7.59 5.42 32.0 .378 .296 .345 .418 2 6.2
Tyler Renwick 21 R 3 2 5.40 7.20 7.20 35.0 .397 .312 .417 .433 2 4.4
X-Brian Cardwell 19 R 0 5 9.09 10.80 8.62 31.7 .451 .313 .409 .542 7 8.2
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Robert Hamann 23 R 8 4 2.95 3.88 3.87 58.0 .327 .225 .307 .336 4 5.3
Josh Stevens 21 R 4 4 2.99 4.48 4.91 84.3 .333 .289 .331 .397 4 10.1
Justin Stine 23 L 3 4 3.13 4.61 4.63 54.7 .349 .265 .348 .362 2 7.6
Marc Bluma 23 R 2 2 4.28 6.42 5.35 67.3 .383 .281 .353 .386 3 7.0
Dana Reece 23 L 0 0 7.33 9.84 9.07 43.0 .467 .340 .436 .502 5 7.7
Castellanos got some press after his callup from Hagerstown but didn't pitch
so well in his 8 innings for Dunedin:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Hu Castellanos 20 R 0 3 1.64 2.58 1.54 38.3 .238 .123 .255 .177 1 7.0
Jerrod Payne~22 R 0 2 3.71 4.76 3.35 17.0 .328 .242 .300 .306 0 3.2
X-Eric Place 25 L 0 1 5.40 5.40 3.98 5.0 .374 .300 .286 .379 0 10.8
X-Peyton Lewis 24 R 0 3 5.20 5.53 6.18 27.7 .398 .298 .367 .425 2 8.1
X-Diego Markwell 19 L 0 1 9.00 9.00 13.46 2.0 .483 .333 .571 .421 0 9.0
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Queens Kings 46-29 (through games of 9/06/00) -- A-
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Prospect Age: 20, Competitive Adjustment: 2.49, Park Factor: 1.00
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=4.56, R/ERP=1.12, R/ER=1.23
Alex Rios was the Jays' #1 pick a year ago. So far he hasn't stood out,
but he's only 19:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Brian Sellier~22 L OF .199 .258 .376 .392 5.75 35 34 33 5 11 2 258
Rich Thompson~21 L OF .197 .262 .386 .349 5.39 40 42 27 1 28 8 303
Dominic Rich~20 R 2B .196 .263 .372 .343 4.89 33 37 25 0 10 4 282
Mike Snyder 19 R 1B .195 .278 .343 .405 4.81 31 28 34 4 4 3 251
Guillermo Quiroz 18 R C .181 .224 .329 .347 3.97 24 27 29 5 1 2 228
Martin Malpica R 3B .175 .278 .307 .370 3.64 22 30 34 2 0 3 225
Robert Cosby 19 R 3B .174 .270 .326 .319 3.60 17 15 22 0 4 2 178
Alexis Rios 19 R OF .174 .267 .314 .345 3.59 22 22 25 1 5 5 223
Raul Tablado~22 R SS .165 .212 .318 .318 3.58 22 27 29 3 1 1 233
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Jose Umbria 22 R C .263 .500 .500 .600 11.55 2 3 4 0 0 0 10
X-Shawn Pearson 22 R OF .218 .351 .468 .365 7.25 14 18 3 0 7 4 94
X-Chivas Clark 21 L OF .207 .220 .441 .293 6.11 8 9 5 0 2 1 59
X-Shawn Fagan 22 R 3B .204 .289 .387 .444 6.11 15 17 13 2 0 1 106
Wade Rikert L OF .185 .250 .359 .296 4.19 14 19 14 0 8 3 128
X-Juan Santos 22 S C .179 .241 .371 .310 4.40 4 2 3 0 0 0 35
X-Kurt Keene 22 R 2B .169 .261 .346 .283 3.83 5 10 5 0 4 1 52
Richard Jimenez S SS .152 .219 .306 .250 2.57 2 5 3 0 0 0 36
X-Aaron Fera 22 R OF .134 .167 .179 .361 2.12 2 3 7 2 0 0 39
Rick Brosseau~21 L SS .128 .164 .220 .273 1.84 3 9 2 0 2 0 59
X-Buster Small~22 R C .081 .133 .188 .200 .61 0 2 1 0 0 0 16
X-Jose Bernhardt 19 R 1B .068 .136 .190 .169 .34 1 1 3 0 0 0 63
Casey Martinez~22 R C .057 .136 .208 .136 .25 0 2 0 0 0 0 24
Dwayne Pugh R OF -.132 .000 .059 .000 -1.81 0 2 0 0 1 0 17
Jeremy Ridley~22 R DH -.145 .000 .000 .000 -2.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
QUEENS .185 .251 .341 .342 4.22 315 364 321 25 88 40 2921
Note that for players for which I don't have the ages yet, I've assumed they
are at most prospect age for EqA purposes, but really don't know:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Brandon Lyon R 5 3 2.39 2.98 1.71 60.3 .287 .197 .224 .262 1 8.2
Diegoma Markwell 19 L 4 3 3.05 3.54 3.45 73.7 .338 .221 .305 .300 2 8.1
Mike Smith~22 R 2 2 2.29 3.18 3.15 51.0 .338 .224 .294 .298 1 9.7
Chris Mowday 18 R 5 2 3.39 4.02 4.17 71.7 .360 .233 .342 .305 1 8.2
Brian Cardwell 19 R 2 4 4.71 5.80 5.59 49.7 .409 .268 .351 .428 6 11.1
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Tyler Renwick 21 R 2 2 2.55 4.84 3.64 35.3 .366 .198 .323 .272 1 7.9
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
George Perez 21 R 5 1 .78 .78 2.62 34.7 .263 .181 .287 .252 1 9.1
Joe Orloski 21 R 4 0 1.38 2.25 2.00 52.0 .281 .173 .245 .248 2 11.4
Stuart McFarland L 2 2 2.08 3.12 3.68 26.0 .329 .148 .372 .187 0 7.3
James Detwiler 24 L 3 1 2.83 3.09 3.18 35.0 .355 .203 .319 .257 0 9.8
Kris Kozlowski~22 L 4 1 2.82 4.23 3.66 44.7 .368 .221 .301 .311 2 11.7
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Martin Malpica R 0 0 .00 .00 -3.01 .7-.241 .000 .000 .000 0 13.5
X-Ryan Houston 20 R 1 2 2.83 3.45 3.20 28.7 .330 .217 .291 .300 1 9.1
Danny Huesgen~22 R 2 1 2.42 3.12 4.97 26.0 .375 .267 .330 .392 2 5.9
Robert Nunley 19 R 2 0 5.12 5.59 5.70 19.3 .411 .295 .352 .408 1 9.3
Reuben St. Amand 20 R 2 4 5.87 8.22 7.20 46.0 .458 .344 .408 .449 1 5.5
John Taylor R 0 1 9.35 10.38 8.84 8.7 .509 .361 .457 .456 0 9.3
X-Jerrod Payne~22 R 0 0 9.00 9.00 10.43 2.0 .542 .375 .375 .816 1 4.5
Lee Southard 22 R 1 0 12.00 15.00 10.24 6.0 .592 .292 .514 .368 0 10.5
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Medicine Hat Blue Jays 36-40 (through games of 9/03/00) -- R+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 19, Competitive Adjustment: 2.99, Park Factor: .98
2000 League Averages (est.): RA=6.31, R/ERP=1.20, R/ER=1.28
Miguel Negron was the Jays' #1 pick in 2000:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jeremy Johnson~22 L OF .216 .376 .498 .608 11.19 67 66 58 9 5 3 307
Ron Davenport R 1B .193 .345 .404 .485 7.10 41 37 46 4 5 2 255
Aaron Sisk~21 R 3B .176 .257 .362 .500 6.45 40 32 50 13 4 0 257
Armando Guerrero R OF .168 .259 .331 .442 4.99 33 30 25 5 6 4 248
Nom Siriveaw~19 S 3B .166 .243 .341 .396 4.89 33 40 40 8 7 0 270
Tommy Callen~22 R 2B .164 .258 .421 .324 5.61 30 44 25 2 5 3 233
Morrin A. Davis~17 R OF .144 .222 .276 .377 3.44 17 17 16 5 2 1 174
Miguel Negron~17 L OF .136 .232 .324 .258 2.96 17 26 13 0 5 3 216
Manuel Mayorson R SS .133 .220 .325 .239 2.80 19 39 12 0 3 2 252
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Jose Umbria 22 R C .198 .345 .455 .545 9.08 13 11 14 3 0 0 66
Jeremy Ridley~22 S SS .198 .286 .500 .429 9.06 2 3 1 0 0 0 10
X-Casey Martinez~22 R C .191 .280 .438 .520 8.27 6 5 3 1 0 0 32
Wade Rikert R OF .176 .247 .362 .412 5.62 16 27 15 4 6 1 116
William Rivera~18 L 2B .165 .274 .392 .315 4.80 17 22 8 0 0 0 148
John Blackburn~17 R C .148 .193 .309 .333 3.65 6 5 8 1 0 0 68
Glynn Kimberley R OF .147 .229 .323 .313 3.58 9 13 13 1 0 0 96
Ubaldos Ramos R 1B .143 .233 .310 .322 3.38 9 13 11 0 0 0 100
Steven Wood~22 R 1B .141 .227 .299 .386 3.89 10 14 14 2 0 0 97
Buster Small~22 R C .116 .221 .309 .221 2.38 9 13 6 0 2 1 149
MEDICINE HAT .170 .264 .365 .392 5.17 393 457 378 58 50 20 3094
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Charlie Chulk~21 R 2 4 3.80 4.72 5.38 68.7 .392 .277 .329 .400 5 6.7
David Hanson 19 R 7 3 5.81 6.27 5.38 79.0 .399 .262 .332 .383 6 9.0
Ryan McCullem 19 L 2 2 3.95 5.60 6.63 54.7 .399 .286 .367 .424 5 8.7
Josh McMillan~21 L 3 3 4.34 6.58 6.11 64.3 .424 .279 .355 .406 5 7.8
Dustin McGowan~18 R 0 3 6.48 7.56 7.99 25.0 .444 .274 .422 .403 2 6.8
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Abbott~22 R 2 1 1.99 4.37 3.09 22.7 .341 .226 .277 .286 0 7.1
X-Fran Gracesqui 20 L 0 1 2.63 4.13 4.55 24.0 .358 .185 .365 .268 1 7.5
Tracy Thorpe~19 R 0 4 8.54 9.57 7.16 26.3 .460 .275 .390 .427 3 5.1
Neomar Flores R 0 0 12.00 12.00 13.98 3.0 .551 .462 .500 .794 1 6.0
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Andrew McCulloch~22 R 0 0 2.67 3.00 4.13 27.0 .350 .229 .277 .367 3 8.7
Alexis Guzman 20 R 6 8 2.38 4.25 4.15 53.0 .351 .241 .297 .345 3 5.9
Jeromie Spillman~21 L 4 3 4.15 5.08 4.79 39.0 .389 .233 .315 .369 4 8.3
William Morris~22 R 3 4 5.52 6.75 5.66 44.0 .434 .274 .339 .411 4 5.9
Matt Bimeal R 1 0 6.02 8.31 7.47 43.3 .442 .304 .348 .505 8 10.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Vigri Vega R 2 0 1.64 3.27 2.05 11.0 .279 .190 .239 .241 0 12.3
Derrek Nunley 19 R 1 0 2.63 2.63 3.41 13.7 .307 .204 .316 .258 0 7.2
Lanny Patten~21 R 2 3 3.71 6.39 7.13 43.7 .433 .313 .367 .472 5 7.8
Eric Stephenson~17 R 1 1 8.33 9.33 8.88 27.0 .475 .353 .421 .494 2 7.0
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Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA) is a park-adjusted, league-average-adjusted,
competition-level-adjusted and minor-league-experience-adjusted stat which
estimates how the player would have performed in the major leagues:
.260 represents average major league performance;
.300 represents excellent major league batting, poor major league pitching.
For batters, EqA is based mainly on hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks,
steals, caught stealing and at bats. These are combined using the Estimated
Runs Produced (ERP) formula, from which R27 (ERP per 27 outs) is estimated,
and R27 is multipled by the listed [R/ERP] factor for the league to get the
R9 value for the EqA formula below.
For pitchers, EqA is based on ERA, RA (like ERA, but includes unearned runs),
and R27 (Estimated Runs Produced against the pitcher based on hits, walks,
home runs, and innings pitched, per 27 outs). In the EqA formula below,
R9 = (ERA*[R/ER])/6 + RA/3 + (R27*[R/ERP])/2, where [R/ER] is the listed
Run-to-Earned-Run ratio for the player's league (typically 1.1 in the
majors, higher in the minors), and [R/ERP] is the listed
Run-to-Estimated-Runs-Produced ratio for the player's league (typically
1.0 in the majors, higher in the minors).
Note: The purpose of the [R/ER] and [R/ERP] factors is to put ERA and
R27 on the same scale as RA for comparison to the league average;
these factors are higher for the lower leagues, presumably
because more errors are made.
The EqA formula is
EqA = ( (( R9 / ( PF * DiffAdj * AgeAdj ) / AvgR9 )) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where
R9 is as explained above for batters and pitchers,
PF is the Park Factor (listed for each team),
DiffAdj is the listed Competitive Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Competitive Adjustment) for pitchers,
(the Competitive Adjustment is (1.20^n) where n is the number
of levels down from the majors);
AgeAdj is the Age Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Age Adjustment) for pitchers, where the Age Adjustment is
1.0 for players of the listed Prospect Age or younger
1.045^(YearsOverage+1) for older players where
YearsOverage is the lesser of (Age minus Prospect Age) and 10;
AvgR9 is the listed League Average Runs per 9 Innings (RA) (in the case
of batters, this number is divided by 1.03 because of the DH rule)
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'pitchers' may differ from what he would do,
and my formulas and adjustment factors for 'hitters' differ.
The age adjustment is loosely based on his Aug 9/98 post to
news:rec.sport.baseball; in that article, he suggests treating every
2 years over-age as the same as being one level lower, but for me
that results in a bigger adjustment than is reflected in his
examples, so I used the above age adjustment to fit his examples.
Also, I arbitrarily added the 10 year maximum. Davenport believes
based on his studies that older players have an "Experience Advantage"
in the minor leagues which improves their minor league performance but
doesn't carry over to the majors.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
Age: as of July 1, 2000 (unless preceded by ~, in which case I don't know)
X- No longer in league
1- 1st team played for in this league this year
2- 2nd team played for in this league this year
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, explained above
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, estimated as 26*ERP/(AB-H+CS)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced, explained above
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use ERP instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB+HBP)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, explained above
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
D: Doubles, estimated as .219*(H-HR)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as 0
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as 0
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is taken from the Toronto Blue Jays web site
http://www.bluejays.com/stats/minors/NBJorg.txt
2000 Park Factors for Tennessee and Queens are based on the 1-year park
factors estimated from the home/road stats at
http://www.bluejays.com/stats/minors/NBJhome.txt
For the others, the 1-year park factor was averaged with the
multi-year park factor used last year.
2000 League Averages for RA were estimated from the numbers at
http://www.fastball.com/auto/minors/stats/
and the others (R/ERA, R/ERP) are last year's numbers.
Many of the ages were derived from STATS Minor League Handbook 2000.
Equivalent Average is in the same spirit as described by Clay Davenport in
Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay Davenport, Rany
Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
The age adjustment (also known as experience advantage) concept is based on
Clay Davenport's Aug 9/98 article in news:rec.sport.baseball.
Competition Adjustments were based in part on "reverse engineering" the
Equivalent Averages of minor leaguers listed in Baseball Prospectus 1998.
My hitter EqAs are similar down to at least A-ball but my pitcher
adjustments seem to be larger.
The landmark study in "Making Sense of Minor League Batting Statistics" was
published by Bill James in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1985. Note that
it did not look at whether translated minor league pitching stats were as
reliable a predictor of major league performance as translated minor league
batting stats, nor did it look at batters below AAA level.
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 2000 Sept 8
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.