"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 2000 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 2000 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 162, Chris Woodward 3, Brad Fullmer 1
Second Base: Homer Bush 75, Craig Grebeck 56, Mickey Morandini 35,
Chris Woodward 3
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez 141, Chris Woodward 22, Craig Grebeck 8
Third Base: Tony Batista 154, Chris Woodward 9
Left Field: Shannon Stewart 136, Marty Cordova 23, DeWayne Wise 14,
Rob Ducey 2, Andy Thompson 2, Todd Greene 1
Center Field: Jose Cruz 162, Vernon Wells 3, Shannon Stewart 1,
DeWayne Wise 1
Right Field: Raul Mondesi 96, Dave Martinez 47, Marty Cordova 18,
Chad Mottola 3, DeWayne Wise 3, Rob Ducey 1
Catcher: Darrin Fletcher 117, Alberto Castillo 66,
Charlie Greene 3, Todd Greene 2, Josh Phelps 1
Starting Pitcher: David Wells 35, Chris Carpenter 27, Kelvim Escobar 24,
Frank Castillo 24, Esteban Loaiza 14, Roy Halladay 13,
Steve Trachsel 11, Joey Hamilton 6, Peter Munro 3,
Lance Painter 2, Clayton Andrews 2, Pasqual Coco 1
Relief Pitcher: Billy Koch 68, Paul Quantrill 68, John Frascatore 60,
Pedro Borbon 59, Lance Painter 40, Mark Guthrie 23,
Kelvim Escobar 19, Matt Dewitt 8, Chris Carpenter 7,
Darwin Cubillan 7, Peter Munro 6, Eric Gunderson 6,
Clayton Andrews 6, Roy Halladay 6, Leo Estrella 2,
John Bale 2, Frank Castillo 1
Designated Hitter: Brad Fullmer 129, Todd Greene 23, Marty Cordova 15,
Darrin Fletcher 2, DeWayne Wise 2
Manager: Jim Fregosi
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2000 in Context
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The medium-payroll Jays were in first-place in July. The high-payroll
Yanks collapsed in September, but the Jays' offense collapsed too.
The low-payroll White Sox and A's had the league's two best records:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) White Sox 6.07 | ( 1) Boston 4.62 | ( 1) White Sox 95-67 .586
( 2) Oakland 5.94 | ( 2) Seattle 4.87 | ( 2) Oakland 91-70 .565
( 3) Cleveland 5.93 | ( 3) Cleveland 5.09 | ( 3) Seattle 91-71 .562
( 4) Seattle 5.66 | ( 4) Oakland 5.10 | ( 4) Cleveland 90-72 .556
( 5) NYYankees 5.50 | ( 5) NYYankees 5.14 | ( 5) NYYankees 87-74 .540
( 6) Kansas City 5.50 | ( 6) Detroit 5.16 | ( 6) Boston 85-77 .525
( 7) TORONTO 5.39 | ( 7) White Sox 5.21 | ( 7) TORONTO 83-79 .512
( 8) Anaheim 5.37 | ( 8) Tampa Bay 5.29 | ( 8) Anaheim 82-80 .506
( 9) Texas 5.34 | ( 9) Anaheim 5.40 | ( 9) Detroit 79-83 .488
(10) Detroit 5.13 | (10) Minnesota 5.53 | (10) Kansas City 77-85 .475
(11) Baltimore 4.99 | (11) TORONTO 5.69 | (11) Baltimore 74-88 .457
(12) Boston 4.91 | (12) Baltimore 5.73 | (12) Texas 71-91 .438
(13) Minnesota 4.70 | (13) Kansas City 5.82 | (13) Tampa Bay 69-92 .429
(14) Tampa Bay 4.61 | (14) Texas 6.13 | (14) Minnesota 69-93 .426
Avg 5.36 Avg 5.34 1143-1122
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays, despite leading the league
in home runs, had a low team on-base percentage, and were only average in
runs scored. The top-5 hitting teams had the best 5 win-loss records:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEA OAK CHW CLE NYY TOR ANA KAN DET BAL TEX BOS TAM MIN
.275 .275 .272 .269 .264 .260 .260 .259 .259 .256 .255 .250 .245 .242
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays had the 3rd-worst
pitching & defense in the league, their worst performance since 1995. The
best two defensive teams, the Red Sox and Indians, didn't make the playoffs:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS CLE CHW NYY MIN OAK TAM SEA DET ANA KAN TOR TEX BAL
.244 .253 .256 .257 .258 .258 .259 .259 .259 .261 .265 .266 .269 .271
The park factors were estimated by averaging the 2000 park factor with the
1997-1999 park factor (except when the park changed). SkyDome seemed like
Coors Field early in the year, but the ball stopped carrying later, and
SkyDome ended up a fairly neutral park for the season:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIN TEX KAN CLE CHW BOS TOR TAM ANA NYY DET OAK BAL SEA
5.1 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.5 1.0 .4 .3 .2 -1.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.5 -7.8
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'00 Hitters
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Carlos Delgado's career year was the Jays' best since John Olerud's in '93.
Shannon Stewart and Darrin Fletcher had their best hitting seasons to date.
The Jays traded David Segui to get Brad Fullmer, who hit about the same for
less money. The Jays traded Shawn Green and received the expensive
Raul Mondesi, a downgrade. Tony Batista was moved to third-base, creating
a hole at shortstop. Jose Cruz was just an average hitter, a step back
from the past 3 years, but this time he got to play every day.
Alex Gonzalez's career year was at best mediocre for a shortstop.
Homer Bush didn't get enough infield hits to justify his $7 million contract:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 28 L 1B .351 .344 .470 .664 10.92 138 115 137 41 0 1 711
Shannon Stewart 26 R LF .287 .319 .363 .518 6.59 90 107 69 21 20 5 630
Brad Fullmer 25 L DH .286 .295 .340 .558 6.53 76 76 104 32 3 1 524
Darrin Fletcher 33 L C .282 .320 .355 .514 6.32 61 43 58 20 1 0 445
Raul Mondesi 29 R RF .276 .271 .329 .523 6.01 59 78 67 24 22 6 426
Tony Batista 26 R 3B .265 .263 .307 .519 5.40 84 96 114 41 5 4 664
Jose CruzJr 26 S CF .260 .242 .323 .466 5.16 81 91 76 31 15 5 679
Alex Gonzalez 27 R SS .240 .252 .313 .404 4.22 57 68 69 15 4 4 575
Homer Bush 27 R 2B .181 .215 .271 .253 2.10 17 38 18 1 9 4 321
When Raul Mondesi got hurt, the Jays traded RHP Pete Munro for Dave Martinez,
who surprised by hitting as well as Mondesi. Craig Grebeck hit a lot better
than the regular middle-infielders. The rest of the bench didn't hit:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Dave Martinez 35 L RF .273 .311 .393 .411 5.85 25 29 22 2 4 2 206
Craig Grebeck 35 R IF .262 .295 .364 .411 5.24 30 38 23 3 0 0 269
Marty Cordova 30 R OF .225 .245 .317 .340 3.61 19 23 18 4 3 2 221
Micke Morandini 34 L 2B .216 .271 .316 .308 3.23 9 10 7 0 1 0 114
Chris Woodward 24 R IF .202 .183 .254 .337 2.75 8 16 14 3 1 0 114
Albert Castillo 30 R C .194 .211 .287 .265 2.47 12 14 16 1 0 0 209
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Andy Thompson 24 R OF .253 .167 .444 .167 4.83 1 2 1 0 0 0 9
Todd Greene 29 R C .235 .235 .278 .435 4.01 9 11 10 5 0 0 90
Chad Mottola 28 R RF .183 .222 .300 .222 2.13 1 1 2 0 0 0 10
Rob Ducey 35 L OF .175 .154 .267 .231 1.92 1 2 1 0 0 0 15
Dewayne Wise 22 L OF .099 .136 .208 .136 .47 0 3 0 0 1 0 24
Charlie Greene 29 R C -.136 .111 .111 .111 -1.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
The Pitchers -.149 .071 .103 .071 -1.29 -1 0 0 0 0 0 29
Josh Phelps 22 R C -.196 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Vernon Wells 21 R CF -.196 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Triples:
Shannon Stewart 5, Jose CruzJr 5, Raul Mondesi 2, Tony Batista 2,
Alex Gonzalez 2, Carlos Delgado 1, Darrin Fletcher 1, Dave Martinez 1,
Brad Fullmer 1, Micke Morandini 1
Delgado broke Olerud's team record of 54 doubles:
Doubles (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 57, Shannon Stewart 43, Tony Batista 32, Jose CruzJr 32,
Alex Gonzalez 31, Brad Fullmer 29, Raul Mondesi 22, Darrin Fletcher 19
Delgado also broke Olerud's team record of 321 times on base:
Times On Base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 334, Shannon Stewart 229, Jose CruzJr 219, Tony Batista 204,
Alex Gonzalez 180, Brad Fullmer 178, Darrin Fletcher 158, Raul Mondesi 140
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Jose CruzJr 462, Tony Batista 461, Shannon Stewart 402, Alex Gonzalez 398,
Carlos Delgado 374, Brad Fullmer 341, Raul Mondesi 289
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Todd Greene 3.6, Tony Batista 3.5, Homer Bush 3.3, Micke Morandini 3.3,
Chris Woodward 2.8, Alex Gonzalez 2.6, Raul Mondesi 2.3, Brad Fullmer 2.3,
Darrin Fletcher 2.3, Shannon Stewart 2.1, Marty Cordova 1.9,
Jose CruzJr 1.8, Albert Castillo 1.7, Craig Grebeck 1.3, Dave Martinez 1.2,
Carlos Delgado .8
Games Played (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 162, Jose CruzJr 162, Tony Batista 154, Alex Gonzalez 141,
Shannon Stewart 136, Brad Fullmer 133, Darrin Fletcher 122
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'00 Starting Pitchers
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David Wells was the Jays' best pitcher overall. Frank Castillo actually
pitched better when healthy. On July 19/00, the Jays traded 2B Mike Young
and RHP Darwin Cubillan to Texas for RHP Esteban Loaiza, who pitched well
for the Jays. Kelvim Escobar was mediocre and was moved to the bullpen.
Chris Carpenter pitched as if he hadn't recovered fully from elbow injury:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Frank Castillo 31 R 10 5 3.59 3.78 3.92 138.0 .228 .221 .305 .378 18 6.8
Esteban Loaiza 28 R 5 7 3.62 4.40 4.57 92.0 .240 .266 .333 .398 8 6.1
David Wells 37 L 20 8 4.11 4.51 4.67 229.7 .244 .289 .318 .435 23 6.5
Kelvim Escobar 24 R 10 15 5.35 5.90 5.31 180.0 .264 .266 .348 .439 26 7.1
Chris Carpenter 25 R 10 12 6.26 6.67 6.22 175.3 .280 .290 .369 .484 30 5.8
Joey Hamilton pitched well after returning from injury. Steve Trachsel
wasn't worth giving up 2B prospect Brent Abernathy. Roy Halladay became
ineffective for no known reason:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Joey Hamilton 29 R 2 1 3.55 3.55 3.75 33.0 .224 .229 .308 .358 3 4.1
Steve Trachsel 29 R 2 5 5.29 5.71 5.71 63.0 .267 .286 .350 .471 10 4.6
Peter Munro 25 R 1 1 5.96 7.71 7.52 25.7 .296 .342 .438 .458 1 5.6
Pasqual Coco 22 R 0 0 9.00 9.00 10.21 4.0 .330 .305 .491 .553 1 4.5
Roy Halladay 23 R 4 7 10.64 11.57 9.08 67.7 .338 .357 .439 .580 14 5.9
Games Started:
David Wells 35, Chris Carpenter 27, Kelvim Escobar 24, Frank Castillo 24,
Esteban Loaiza 14, Roy Halladay 13, Steve Trachsel 11, Joey Hamilton 6,
Peter Munro 3, Lance Painter 2, Clayton Andrews 2, Pasqual Coco 1
Complete Games:
David Wells 9, Kelvim Escobar 3, Chris Carpenter 2, Esteban Loaiza 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Esteban Loaiza 6.6, David Wells 6.6, Steve Trachsel 5.7, Frank Castillo 5.5,
Joey Hamilton 5.5, Chris Carpenter 5.2, Kelvim Escobar 4.2,
Pasqual Coco 4.0, Roy Halladay 3.6, Peter Munro 2.9
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'00 Relief Pitchers
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Billy Koch was excellent in his first full-season. Lance Painter, Alberto
Castillo and Matt DeWitt were acquired for Pat Hentgen before the season.
Pedro Borbon was included in the Shawn Green trade, and pitched as poorly
for the Jays as he did in his last two months with the Dodgers:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Billy Koch 25 R 9 3 2.63 3.20 3.87 78.7 .219 .258 .304 .381 6 6.9
Lance Painter 32 L 2 0 4.73 5.00 4.86 66.7 .252 .266 .328 .433 9 7.2
Paul Quantrill 31 R 2 5 4.52 4.84 5.18 83.7 .253 .295 .347 .431 7 5.1
John Frascatore 30 R 2 4 5.42 6.29 6.66 73.0 .279 .295 .379 .503 14 3.7
Pedro Borbon 32 L 1 1 6.48 7.99 6.95 41.7 .294 .275 .425 .432 5 6.3
Mark Guthrie was also picked up in the Abernathy trade:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mark Guthrie 34 L 0 2 4.79 5.23 4.96 20.7 .254 .253 .337 .425 3 8.7
Leo Estrella 25 R 0 0 5.79 5.79 9.01 4.7 .297 .403 .403 .634 1 5.8
Darwin Cubillan 25 R 1 0 8.04 8.04 8.73 15.7 .312 .309 .417 .603 5 8.0
Matt Dewitt 22 R 1 0 8.56 8.56 9.60 13.7 .322 .339 .443 .615 4 4.0
Eric Gunderson 34 L 0 1 7.11 8.53 10.98 6.3 .328 .454 .499 .576 0 2.8
Clayton Andrews 22 L 1 2 10.02 10.02 9.43 20.7 .332 .366 .422 .640 6 5.2
John Bale 26 L 0 0 14.73 17.18 10.57 3.7 .378 .323 .489 .587 1 14.7
Relief Appearances:
Billy Koch 68, Paul Quantrill 68, John Frascatore 60, Pedro Borbon 59,
Lance Painter 40, Mark Guthrie 23, Kelvim Escobar 19, Matt Dewitt 8,
Chris Carpenter 7, Darwin Cubillan 7, Peter Munro 6, Eric Gunderson 6,
Clayton Andrews 6, Roy Halladay 6, Leo Estrella 2, John Bale 2,
Frank Castillo 1
Saves:
Billy Koch 33, Kelvim Escobar 2, Paul Quantrill 1, Pedro Borbon 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Clayton Andrews 2.6, Leo Estrella 2.3, Darwin Cubillan 2.2, John Bale 1.8,
Matt Dewitt 1.7, Lance Painter 1.6, Paul Quantrill 1.2,
John Frascatore 1.2, Billy Koch 1.2, Eric Gunderson 1.1, Mark Guthrie .9,
Pedro Borbon .7
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Former and Future Jays in 2000
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Shawn Green hit better than Raul Mondesi, but neither player was worth their
8-figure salary:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
David Segui TEX .290 .336 .391 .519 7.09 54 52 57 11 0 1 389
John Olerud SEA .290 .285 .391 .439 6.21 93 84 103 14 0 2 680
David Segui CLE .286 .332 .384 .498 6.70 33 41 46 8 0 0 245
Roberto Alomar CLE .285 .310 .378 .475 6.62 94 111 87 19 39 4 687
Shawn Green LAD .284 .269 .367 .472 6.12 98 98 99 24 24 5 714
Ed Sprague SDP .280 .261 .326 .529 5.84 24 19 27 10 0 0 175
Jose Canseco TAM .279 .257 .383 .450 6.16 34 31 30 9 2 0 264
Mike Stanley OAK .278 .268 .363 .464 5.88 15 11 18 4 0 0 113
Fred McGriff TAM .276 .277 .373 .452 6.00 83 82 106 27 2 0 664
Jose Canseco NYY .272 .243 .365 .432 5.70 16 16 19 6 0 0 137
Mike Stanley BOS .249 .222 .327 .411 4.65 23 22 28 10 0 0 217
Tom Evans TEX .247 .278 .394 .352 4.77 6 10 5 0 0 3 66
Devon White LAD .232 .266 .310 .386 3.70 16 26 13 4 3 6 168
Mike Matheny STL .228 .261 .317 .362 3.84 39 43 47 6 0 0 457
Willie Greene CHC .224 .201 .289 .365 3.55 29 34 37 10 4 0 339
Ed Sprague BOS .206 .216 .293 .306 2.91 9 11 9 2 0 0 123
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Anthony Sanders SEA .9991.0001.0001.000 99.99 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Glenallen Hill NYY .333 .333 .378 .735 9.47 29 22 29 16 0 0 143
Jeff Kent SFG .328 .334 .424 .596 8.70 125 114 125 33 12 9 695
Mark Whiten CLE .321 .286 .500 .429 8.93 1 2 1 0 0 0 10
Chris Stynes CIN .281 .334 .386 .497 6.68 54 71 40 12 5 2 417
Felipe Crespo SFG .271 .290 .351 .443 5.38 18 17 29 4 3 2 148
Lee Stevens MON .266 .265 .337 .481 5.48 61 60 75 22 0 0 501
Derek Bell NYM .261 .266 .348 .425 5.08 72 87 69 18 8 4 620
Ricky Henderson SEA .258 .238 .362 .327 4.66 44 58 30 4 31 9 392
Glenallen Hill CHC .255 .262 .303 .494 4.94 21 23 29 11 0 1 178
Luis Sojo PIT .249 .284 .328 .432 4.79 20 14 20 5 1 0 189
Luis Sojo NYY .245 .288 .321 .408 4.41 13 19 17 2 1 0 131
Dave Martinez TEX .242 .269 .351 .370 4.53 13 14 12 2 2 1 134
Ricky Henderson NYM .237 .219 .387 .229 4.01 11 17 2 0 5 2 124
Geronimo Berroa LAD .235 .258 .343 .323 3.83 3 2 5 0 0 0 35
Benito Santiago CIN .235 .262 .310 .409 4.25 26 22 45 8 2 2 277
Rob Ducey PHI .232 .197 .322 .355 4.03 16 24 25 6 1 0 183
Dave Martinez TAM .228 .260 .319 .365 3.73 10 12 12 1 1 4 116
Miguel Cairo TAM .228 .261 .314 .328 3.71 36 49 34 1 28 7 411
Micke Morandini PHI .218 .252 .324 .315 3.47 26 31 22 0 5 2 336
Craig Wilson CHW .214 .260 .316 .301 3.22 6 12 4 0 1 0 79
Greg Myers BAL .211 .224 .271 .344 2.94 10 9 12 3 0 0 133
Ruben Sierra TEX .192 .233 .281 .283 2.53 4 5 7 1 1 0 64
Sandy Martinez FLA .183 .222 .222 .333 2.11 1 1 0 0 0 0 18
Turner Ward ARZ .166 .173 .241 .250 1.72 3 5 4 0 1 1 58
Adam Melhuse COL .166 .174 .269 .261 2.17 1 3 4 0 0 0 26
Dave Martinez CHC .148 .185 .214 .241 1.25 2 5 1 0 1 0 56
Eddie Zosky HOU-.189 .000 .000 .000 -2.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Adam Melhuse LAD-.199 .000 .000 .000 -2.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
David Wells once again was better than Roger Clemens, if only because he
pitched more innings. Pat Hentgen was an average pitcher for the Cards:
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Davey SDP 2 1 .71 .71 2.77 12.7 .175 .249 .279 .318 0 4.3
Al Leiter NYM 16 8 3.20 3.63 3.72 208.0 .232 .229 .307 .359 19 8.7
Robert Person PHI 9 7 3.63 3.79 3.99 173.3 .233 .226 .331 .344 13 8.5
Roger Clemens NYY 13 8 3.70 4.23 4.41 204.3 .239 .240 .323 .397 26 8.3
Mike Timlin STL 3 1 3.34 3.34 5.32 29.7 .245 .262 .381 .382 2 7.9
Woody Williams SDP 10 8 3.75 3.96 4.12 168.0 .246 .241 .303 .407 23 5.9
Dan Plesac ARZ 5 1 3.15 4.73 4.48 40.0 .246 .230 .345 .367 4 10.1
Tim Crabtree TEX 2 7 5.15 5.83 4.82 80.3 .254 .273 .342 .407 7 6.0
Pat Hentgen STL 15 12 4.72 4.96 5.11 194.3 .259 .267 .347 .427 24 5.5
Omar Daal PHI 2 9 4.69 5.07 5.59 71.0 .263 .286 .358 .451 9 6.5
Tod Stottlemyre ARZ 9 6 4.91 5.19 5.34 95.3 .265 .265 .333 .471 18 7.2
Esteban Loaiza TEX 5 6 5.37 5.62 6.26 107.3 .266 .303 .353 .515 21 6.3
Carlos Almanzar SDP 4 5 4.39 4.52 5.36 69.7 .267 .269 .339 .463 12 7.2
Mike Timlin BAL 2 3 4.89 5.66 5.63 35.0 .268 .270 .351 .463 6 6.7
Paul Spoljaric KAN 0 0 6.52 6.52 6.97 9.7 .283 .246 .337 .611 4 5.6
David Cone NYY 4 14 6.91 7.20 6.78 155.0 .291 .303 .390 .492 25 7.0
Omar Daal ARZ 2 10 7.22 8.25 7.08 96.0 .306 .317 .391 .520 17 4.2
Jim Mann NYM 0 0 10.13 10.13 12.95 2.7 .370 .441 .479 .763 1 .0
Juan Guzman TAM 0 1 43.20 43.20 31.88 1.7 .570 .595 .6541.220 2 16.2
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Karsay CLE 5 9 3.76 3.87 4.31 76.7 .232 .265 .328 .383 5 7.7
David Weathers MIL 3 5 3.04 3.39 4.30 77.0 .234 .250 .328 .384 7 5.8
Mark Guthrie CHC 2 3 4.82 5.30 4.25 18.7 .256 .242 .345 .348 1 8.2
Mark Guthrie TAM 1 1 4.50 5.06 5.36 32.0 .256 .265 .358 .425 4 7.3
Steve Trachsel TAM 6 10 4.58 4.97 5.49 137.7 .257 .289 .354 .446 16 5.1
Willie Blair DET 10 6 4.88 5.11 5.19 156.7 .260 .293 .332 .458 20 4.3
Jose Mesa SEA 4 6 5.36 5.36 5.84 80.7 .275 .279 .370 .448 11 9.4
Jose Silva PIT 11 9 5.56 6.35 6.24 136.0 .282 .315 .375 .479 16 6.5
Mike Johnson MON 5 6 6.39 6.48 5.97 101.3 .286 .268 .368 .467 18 6.2
Billy Taylor TAM 1 3 8.56 8.56 5.61 13.7 .293 .250 .371 .422 2 8.6
Giovann Carrara COL 0 1 12.83 12.83 11.03 13.3 .335 .356 .465 .685 5 10.1
Darwin Cubillan TEX 0 0 10.70 11.21 10.83 17.7 .341 .388 .477 .625 4 6.6
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2000 American League Leaders
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Carlos Delgado led the league with 138 Equivalent Runs and was 2nd in
Equivalent Average. Alex Rodriguez probably should be the MVP considering
he also played an excellent shortstop:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 339 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jason Giambi OAK .356 .333 .475 .646 10.97 131 108 137 43 2 0 665
Carlos Delgado TOR .351 .344 .470 .664 10.92 138 115 137 41 0 1 711
Manny Ramirez CLE .349 .351 .457 .697 11.00 105 92 122 38 1 1 532
Alex Rodriguez SEA .336 .316 .420 .606 8.97 127 134 132 41 15 4 672
Edgar Martinez SEA .330 .324 .421 .579 8.63 120 100 145 37 3 0 663
Frank Thomas CHW .330 .328 .436 .625 9.46 125 115 143 43 1 3 707
Nom Garciaparra BOS .328 .372 .434 .599 9.26 104 104 96 21 5 2 599
Ivan Rodriguez TEX .312 .347 .375 .667 8.55 67 66 83 27 5 5 389
Troy Glaus ANA .312 .284 .403 .604 8.15 115 120 102 47 14 11 677
Darin Erstad ANA .308 .355 .409 .541 7.89 119 121 100 25 28 8 745
Jorge Posada NYY .308 .287 .417 .527 7.75 96 92 86 28 2 2 624
Bernie Williams NYY .306 .307 .391 .566 7.65 99 108 121 30 13 5 616
Tim Salmon ANA .303 .290 .404 .540 7.57 104 108 97 34 0 2 680
Carl Everett BOS .301 .300 .373 .587 7.52 89 82 108 34 11 4 561
Pedro Martinez should win the Cy Young Award:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 108.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pedro Martinez BOS 18 6 1.74 1.82 1.68 217.0 .166 .171 .217 .280 17 11.8
Frank Castillo TOR 10 5 3.59 3.78 3.92 138.0 .228 .221 .305 .378 18 6.8
Bartolo Colon CLE 15 8 3.88 4.12 4.34 188.0 .235 .233 .330 .378 21 10.1
Mike Mussina BAL 11 15 3.79 3.98 4.06 237.7 .236 .258 .296 .411 28 8.0
Roger Clemens NYY 13 8 3.70 4.23 4.41 204.3 .239 .240 .323 .397 26 8.3
Tim Hudson OAK 20 6 4.14 4.45 3.95 202.3 .239 .226 .309 .375 24 7.5
Chuck Finley CLE 16 11 4.17 4.46 4.62 218.0 .242 .253 .335 .397 23 7.8
Mike Sirotka CHW 15 10 3.79 4.61 4.68 197.0 .243 .265 .327 .419 23 5.8
David Wells TOR 20 8 4.11 4.51 4.67 229.7 .244 .289 .318 .435 23 6.5
Brad Radke MIN 12 16 4.45 4.73 5.01 226.7 .246 .287 .329 .446 27 5.6
Orlan Hernandez NYY 12 13 4.51 4.78 4.53 195.7 .247 .250 .303 .442 34 6.5
Cal Eldred CHW 10 2 4.58 4.90 4.67 112.0 .247 .244 .343 .387 12 7.8
Rick Helling TEX 16 13 4.48 5.06 4.96 217.0 .248 .255 .341 .419 29 6.1
Dave Burba CLE 16 6 4.47 4.66 4.98 191.3 .248 .267 .348 .409 19 8.5
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jeff Nelson NYY 8 4 2.45 3.10 2.89 69.7 .205 .181 .314 .253 2 9.2
Mariano Rivera NYY 7 4 2.85 3.09 2.76 75.7 .205 .212 .278 .309 4 6.9
Keith Foulke CHW 3 1 2.97 3.17 2.86 88.0 .206 .208 .262 .342 9 9.3
Tanyon Sturtze TAM 4 0 2.56 2.73 3.40 52.7 .208 .238 .289 .358 4 6.5
Derek Lowe BOS 4 4 2.56 2.66 3.78 91.3 .212 .257 .304 .373 6 7.8
Mike Fyhrie ANA 0 0 2.39 2.39 4.13 52.7 .214 .264 .315 .389 4 7.3
Bob Howry CHW 2 4 3.17 3.30 3.37 71.0 .214 .210 .300 .331 6 7.6
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Theory Stuff, 2000
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The Jays allowed more runs than they scored, but still had a winning
record. Over-achieving the Pythagorean record by a large amount can
indicate a downturn the following year:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) CHW 92-70 .570 | ( 1) TOR 6
( 2) OAK 92-69 .569 | ( 2) BAL 3
( 3) CLE 92-70 .569 | ( 3) CHW 3
( 4) SEA 92-70 .569 | ( 4) NYY 2
( 5) NYY 85-76 .531 | ( 5) ANA 1
( 6) BOS 86-76 .528 | ( 6) TEX 0
( 7) DET 81-81 .498 | ( 7) KAN 0
( 8) ANA 81-81 .497 | ( 8) MIN 0
( 9) TOR 77-85 .476 | ( 9) BOS -1
(10) KAN 77-85 .474 | (10) OAK -1
(11) TEX 71-91 .437 | (11) SEA -1
(12) TAM 70-91 .437 | (12) TAM -1
(13) BAL 71-91 .436 | (13) DET -2
(14) MIN 69-93 .426 | (14) CLE -2
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National League
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Colorado 6.09 | ( 1) Atlanta 4.46 | ( 1)SanFrancisco 97-65 .599
( 2) Houston 5.87 | ( 2) Los Angeles 4.54 | ( 2) Atlanta 95-67 .586
( 3)SanFrancisco 5.76 | ( 3) NYMets 4.58 | ( 2) St. Louis 95-67 .586
( 4) St. Louis 5.57 | ( 4)SanFrancisco 4.65 | ( 4) NYMets 94-68 .580
( 5) Cincinnati 5.10 | ( 5) Arizona 4.70 | ( 5) Los Angeles 86-76 .531
( 6) Atlanta 5.06 | ( 6) Cincinnati 4.73 | ( 6) Cincinnati 85-77 .525
( 7) NYMets 5.01 | ( 7) St. Louis 4.84 | ( 6) Arizona 85-77 .525
( 8) Los Angeles 4.97 | ( 8) Florida 5.01 | ( 8) Colorado 82-80 .506
( 9) Arizona 4.94 | ( 9) San Diego 5.03 | ( 9) Florida 79-82 .491
(10) Pittsburgh 4.93 | (10) Milwaukee 5.07 | (10) San Diego 76-86 .469
(11) Cubs 4.73 | (11)Philadelphia 5.19 | (11) Milwaukee 73-89 .451
(12) Montreal 4.66 | (12) Pittsburgh 5.52 | (12) Houston 72-90 .444
(13) San Diego 4.64 | (13) Cubs 5.59 | (13) Pittsburgh 69-93 .426
(14) Florida 4.60 | (14) Colorado 5.65 | (14) Montreal 67-95 .414
(15) Milwaukee 4.54 | (15) Montreal 5.70 | (15) Cubs 65-97 .401
(16)Philadelphia 4.43 | (16) Houston 5.91 | (15)Philadelphia 65-97 .401
Avg 5.05 Avg 5.07 1285-1306
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SFG STL HOU LAD NYM ATL SDP ARZ CIN PIT CHC FLA COL MON MIL PHI
.283 .269 .268 .265 .264 .262 .259 .258 .257 .256 .255 .254 .254 .253 .250 .244
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
COL CIN ATL ARZ NYM STL LAD SFG PHI MIL FLA SDP PIT HOU CHC MON
.247 .249 .249 .253 .254 .255 .256 .259 .260 .262 .263 .267 .268 .269 .273 .274
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 15
COL HOU CIN PHI PIT STL ARZ MIL MON CHC ATL FLA NYM LAD SDP SFG
27.1 7.2 4.1 2.1 .8 .8 -.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -2.0 -4.1 -4.5 -6.7 -7.5 -7.5
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) SFG 97-65 .597 | ( 1) NYM 6
( 2) STL 91-71 .564 | ( 2) FLA 5
( 3) ATL 90-72 .557 | ( 3) ATL 5
( 4) LAD 88-74 .541 | ( 4) STL 4
( 5) NYM 88-74 .541 | ( 5) SDP 1
( 6) COL 87-75 .535 | ( 6) MON 1
( 7) CIN 87-75 .534 | ( 7) SFG 0
( 8) ARZ 85-77 .522 | ( 8) ARZ 0
( 9) HOU 81-81 .497 | ( 9) MIL 0
(10) SDP 75-87 .463 | (10) CIN -2
(11) FLA 74-87 .461 | (11) LAD -2
(12) MIL 73-89 .450 | (12) CHC -4
(13) PIT 73-89 .448 | (13) PIT -4
(14) PHI 69-93 .428 | (14) PHI -4
(15) CHC 69-93 .424 | (15) COL -5
(16) MON 66-96 .409 | (16) HOU -9
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 339 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Barry Bonds SFG .350 .306 .440 .688 10.26 124 129 106 49 11 3 607
Gary Sheffield LAD .339 .325 .438 .643 9.52 117 105 109 43 4 6 612
Ellis Burks SFG .331 .344 .419 .606 8.92 83 74 96 24 5 1 458
Jeff Kent SFG .328 .334 .424 .596 8.70 125 114 125 33 12 9 695
Vladim Guerrero MON .324 .345 .408 .664 9.02 117 101 123 44 9 10 639
Brian_s Giles PIT .321 .315 .432 .594 9.01 114 111 123 35 6 0 688
Sammy Sosa CHC .321 .320 .406 .634 8.74 123 106 138 50 7 4 705
Todd Helton COL .320 .372 .463 .698 11.25 108 138 147 42 5 3 697
Mike Piazza NYM .317 .324 .397 .614 8.27 95 90 113 38 4 2 544
Edgardo Alfonzo NYM .315 .324 .425 .542 8.11 105 109 94 25 3 2 650
Moises Alou HOU .313 .355 .416 .623 8.97 82 82 114 30 3 3 517
Jeff Bagwell HOU .312 .310 .424 .615 8.90 114 152 132 47 9 6 719
Jim Edmonds STL .311 .295 .411 .583 8.30 102 129 108 42 10 3 642
Chipper Jones ATL .308 .311 .403 .566 7.89 109 118 111 36 14 7 685
John Vanderwal PIT .307 .299 .410 .563 8.05 72 74 94 24 11 2 461
Todd Hundley LAD .306 .284 .375 .579 7.39 57 49 70 24 0 1 352
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 108.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Kevin Brown LAD 13 6 2.58 2.97 2.90 230.0 .214 .216 .265 .344 21 8.5
Randy Johnson ARZ 19 7 2.64 3.22 3.29 248.7 .217 .222 .286 .352 23 12.6
Jeff Damico MIL 12 7 2.66 3.05 3.55 162.3 .220 .236 .295 .364 14 5.6
Greg Maddux ATL 19 9 3.00 3.28 3.28 249.3 .220 .240 .280 .362 19 6.9
Al Leiter NYM 16 8 3.20 3.63 3.72 208.0 .232 .229 .307 .359 19 8.7
Tom Glavine ATL 21 9 3.40 3.77 3.75 241.0 .233 .244 .296 .384 24 5.7
Robert Person PHI 9 7 3.63 3.79 3.99 173.3 .233 .226 .331 .344 13 8.5
Mike Hampton NYM 15 10 3.14 3.68 3.81 217.7 .234 .238 .327 .337 10 6.2
Chuck Smith FLA 6 6 3.23 3.89 3.82 122.7 .236 .241 .324 .343 6 8.7
Rick Ankiel STL 11 7 3.50 4.11 3.98 175.0 .236 .215 .317 .365 21 10.0
Denny Neagle CIN 8 2 3.52 3.67 4.58 117.7 .236 .249 .328 .409 15 6.7
Chanho Park LAD 18 10 3.27 3.66 3.85 226.0 .237 .212 .324 .340 21 8.6
Brian Bohanon COL 12 10 4.68 5.14 5.14 177.0 .238 .264 .345 .432 24 5.0
Curt Schilling PHI 6 6 3.91 3.91 4.47 112.7 .241 .255 .308 .433 17 7.7
Darryl Kile STL 20 9 3.91 4.22 4.18 232.3 .241 .245 .302 .415 33 7.4
Kris Benson PIT 10 12 3.85 4.30 4.44 217.7 .244 .249 .327 .397 24 7.6
Top 8 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Gabe White COL 11 2 2.17 2.28 2.35 83.0 .173 .208 .250 .311 5 8.9
Robb Nen SFG 4 3 1.50 2.05 1.73 66.0 .178 .164 .236 .258 4 12.5
Jose Jimenez COL 5 2 3.18 3.44 3.70 70.7 .206 .238 .316 .345 4 5.6
Armando Benitez NYM 4 4 2.61 2.84 2.56 76.0 .206 .153 .262 .301 10 12.6
Donnie Wall SDP 5 2 3.35 3.35 2.61 53.7 .219 .190 .271 .301 4 4.9
Bob Wickman MIL 2 2 2.93 3.52 3.08 46.0 .219 .220 .307 .297 1 8.6
Dave Veres STL 3 5 2.85 3.09 3.66 75.7 .221 .232 .308 .354 6 8.0
Danny Graves CIN 10 5 2.56 3.05 4.11 91.3 .222 .237 .326 .367 8 5.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .998 in 2000
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj -- this report's ERP columns are actually ERPDisplay
Age: as of July 1, 2000
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 861 runs, allowed 908 runs,
and pitched 1437.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.35 in 2000)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.35 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2000 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2000, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.35
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (AB+BB+HBP+SF)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.08*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.998*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.35 in 2000),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2000 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 2000
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .055*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2000
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .45*SB in 2000
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .989 in 2000
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.06 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2000 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2000, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.06
Pitching Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.989*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = National League average runs per 9 IP (5.06 in 2000),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2000 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 2000
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .062*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2000
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .45*SB in 2000
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/
and is unofficial.
Games by position derived from data on the USA Today web site
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/sba/sba00gp.htm
Park factors derived from the 2000 park factors at
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/eqa.html#tmtot
and the 1997-1999 runs per game data in STATS Major League Handbook 2000.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 2000 Oct 15
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.