"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesHow would the 1999 Blue Jay minor leaguers have performed in the major leagues?
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
20-year-old Vernon Wells had a .334 batting average in the minors in '98. Would he have hit better than Jose Cruz if he'd been called sooner by the Jays?
Bill James' landmark study in 1985 showed that, if interpreted properly, minor league statistics for AAA batters can tell you as much about the player as major league statistics do. Today, James runs "Major League Equivalencies" (MLEs) for AAA and AA batters in the annual STATS Minor League Handbook.
Below, I've used a less-detailed technique than James' to estimate how every Jays minor leaguer would have performed in the majors in '99. There isn't any research to back up the exact approach I'm using, but the results seem similar to what James' gets for AAA and AA batters most of the time. I'm not aware of any research that says you can extend the technique to pitchers or extend it to batters below AA-level, which means we can't be very confident about the results for Vernon Wells' time in Dunedin, but it's still fun to see what the estimates are.
For ease of understanding, the performance measure used is EqA, which stands for "Equivalent Average", and was invented by Clay Davenport, who now runs EqAs for minor and major league batters in the annual Baseball Prospectus. EqA is simple to understand:
i.e. EqA is on the same scale as batting average. But EqA is based not just on hits and at bats, but also on power, walks and base stealing. It's also adjusted for park factor and the league average offense level so that .260 in Colorado means the same as .260 in Toronto.
To produce EqA for minor leaguers, two more important adjustments are made:
The exact formulas are given in the glossary.
The other stats listed are the original ones. Luis Lopez had a .322 Batting Average in Syracuse, so I list his BA as .322. I don't try to figure out what his batting average would have been for the Jays (Bill James MLE's do, and he says Lopez would have had a .304 BA). The only number I show that has any adjustments to it is EqA.
As for Vernon Wells, EqA says he did have a hot few months in which he outperformed Cruz, but not by much, and beware of small sample sizes. Cruz had been better over the previous few years, and in Toronto in September, Cruz was clearly the better hitter.
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Syracuse SkyChiefs 73-71 (Final Unofficial) -- AAA
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Prospect Age: 24, Competitive Adjustment: 1.20, Park Factor: 1.02
1999 League Averages: RA=5.41, R/ERP=1.03, R/ER=1.13
Kevin Witt was close to an average hitting first-baseman. Chris Woodward
hit surprisingly well. Casey Blake was even worse defensively than as a
hitter. Kevin Brown's batting was disappointing, perhaps from back injury.
Anthony Sanders did not continue his hot start to the season:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Kevin Witt 23 L 1B .270 .278 .376 .520 6.84 80 72 71 24 0 0 490
X-Chris Woodward 23 R SS .247 .292 .378 .395 5.48 42 46 20 1 4 0 320
X-Casey Blake 25 R 3B .244 .245 .357 .468 5.84 67 69 75 22 9 5 457
Luis Lopez 25 R 1B .238 .322 .366 .418 5.47 76 76 69 4 1 0 580
Kevin Brown 26 R C .224 .258 .309 .464 4.90 41 39 51 13 0 1 320
Anthony Sanders 25 R OF .219 .244 .309 .417 4.44 66 71 59 18 18 10 550
Norberto Martin 32 R SS .194 .295 .322 .389 4.48 39 45 34 5 14 1 335
Rob Mummau 27 R 2B .193 .242 .293 .358 3.54 45 52 58 5 2 1 474
Chris Jones 33 R OF .178 .237 .285 .387 3.78 31 45 40 8 11 3 298
Andy Thompson hit better in Syracuse than Knoxville. Vernon Wells hit better
than Jose Cruz for Syracuse, but not for Toronto. Jimmy Hurst didn't hit as
well as expected:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Andy Thompson 23 R OF .279 .293 .357 .594 7.42 46 42 42 16 5 0 252
X-Vernon Wells 20 R OF .260 .310 .357 .481 6.24 22 20 21 4 5 1 143
1-Pat Lennon 31 R OF .257 .336 .430 .575 8.62 31 26 33 9 3 3 158
Jimmy Hurst 27 R OF .226 .282 .367 .398 5.24 16 18 10 3 4 3 120
Jose Cruz 25 S OF .223 .184 .356 .320 4.64 15 17 14 3 5 0 132
Juan Melo 22 S SS .211 .234 .288 .376 3.69 16 21 13 3 8 4 153
Alex Delgado 28 R C .193 .206 .320 .327 3.67 12 11 12 2 0 0 125
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Willie Greene 27 L OF .277 .327 .397 .635 8.70 12 12 11 5 0 0 58
Ryan Freel 23 R OF .262 .299 .393 .429 6.39 14 15 11 1 10 3 89
X-Fred Soriano 24 R SS .244 .389 .389 .389 5.35 2 3 2 0 0 0 18
X-Geronim Berroa 34 R OF .236 .273 .415 .545 7.98 7 7 8 3 0 0 41
X-Adam Melhuse 27 S C .233 .282 .370 .437 5.65 11 15 16 2 1 1 81
Mike Strange 25 R 2B .201 .156 .341 .250 3.57 4 4 2 0 1 0 41
X-Craig Grebeck 34 R 2B .197 .250 .294 .500 5.03 2 3 2 1 0 0 17
Ike Pohle 22 R C .183 .200 .333 .200 2.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
X-Fausto Solano 25 R SS .173 .214 .258 .321 2.47 2 4 3 1 0 1 31
X-Alan Probst 28 R C .167 .220 .266 .305 2.56 5 6 5 1 0 0 64
X-Darri Fletcher 32 L C .159 .267 .313 .267 2.70 1 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-Dave Hollins 33 S DH .154 .200 .294 .267 2.61 1 2 1 0 0 0 17
Mark Dalesandro 31 R OF .139 .225 .250 .254 1.87 4 3 5 0 1 0 76
Shannon Carter 20 L OF -.127 .111 .111 .111 -1.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
SYRACUSE .240 .268 .339 .428 5.10 709 744 688154 102 37 5471
Pete Munro pitched like a quality major-leaguer. The age-adjustments might be
unfair to Nerio Rodriguez because he converted to pitching relatively recently:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Peter Munro 24 R 6 1 3.10 3.75 4.85 69.7 .252 .257 .343 .385 6 8.8
Nerio Rodriguez 26 R 10 8 4.54 4.65 4.51 162.7 .276 .260 .323 .403 17 7.6
X-Mike Romano 27 R 12 8 4.13 4.65 4.71 174.3 .281 .244 .335 .396 21 5.4
Gary Glover 22 R 4 6 5.19 5.90 6.19 76.3 .290 .302 .370 .470 10 6.7
X-Jay Yennaco 23 R 2 6 6.86 7.65 7.18 80.0 .315 .328 .404 .507 11 5.1
Tom Davey was arguably pitching as well as Billy Koch did in Syracuse before
his trade to the Mariners. John Bale was called up to the Jays:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
John Bale 25 L 0 3 3.97 5.56 2.87 22.7 .256 .208 .289 .298 1 4.0
X-Tom Davey 25 R 1 2 3.48 4.01 4.40 33.7 .259 .252 .366 .341 1 5.3
X-Billy Koch 24 R 3 0 3.86 3.86 5.28 25.7 .261 .276 .351 .432 3 7.7
Jason Stevenson 24 R 1 2 6.05 6.98 7.71 38.7 .313 .333 .411 .544 7 3.5
Clayton Andrews 21 L 0 1 7.80 8.40 6.24 15.0 .314 .196 .354 .516 5 5.4
X-Joey Hamilton 28 R 0 1 5.11 5.84 6.89 12.3 .323 .313 .386 .509 2 6.6
X-Josh Bradford 25 R 0 1 18.00 18.00 15.28 4.0 .455 .429 .500 .802 2 4.5
Sinclair looked really good in Syracuse before his trade to the Mariners.
Jim Mann might be the next Tom Davey:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Steve Sinclair 27 L 2 2 2.06 2.52 2.29 39.3 .214 .171 .256 .275 3 7.1
Jim Mann 24 R 6 5 4.64 4.77 4.72 66.0 .265 .217 .329 .398 11 9.8
Brian Smith 26 R 7 4 3.50 4.27 5.32 46.3 .278 .253 .346 .427 7 8.9
Kurt Bogott 26 L 8 6 4.62 5.46 4.99 85.7 .288 .240 .339 .393 11 8.0
Mark Lukasiewicz 26 L 4 4 5.34 5.44 6.07 97.7 .302 .281 .347 .496 20 7.1
Lots of relievers passed through Syracuse:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Andy Croghan 29 R 0 0 .00 .00 -.44 3.3-.085 .000 .182 .000 0 10.8
X-Paul Quantrill 30 R 0 0 .00 .00 .31 2.0 .075 .167 .167 .211 0 4.5
Dana Reece 22 L 0 0 .00 .00 2.81 2.0 .162 .143 .333 .180 0 4.5
X-Doug Bochtler 28 R 4 0 2.63 2.96 2.16 27.3 .225 .186 .255 .263 1 9.2
2-Brend Donnelly 27 R 0 1 2.89 3.86 4.15 9.3 .261 .242 .324 .389 1 8.7
X-Sean McClellan 26 R 0 0 3.86 5.14 4.17 7.0 .272 .200 .294 .344 1 6.4
X-Alan Probst 28 R 0 0 4.50 4.50 3.90 2.0 .276 .143 .143 .571 1 4.5
X-Bra Pennington 30 L 3 0 4.24 5.29 5.65 34.0 .313 .248 .392 .381 3 9.0
2-John Hudek 32 R 0 2 5.50 6.00 5.10 18.0 .329 .258 .333 .450 3 7.5
X-Mike Bovee 25 R 0 2 7.32 7.32 7.79 35.7 .331 .329 .410 .526 6 8.1
Ernie Delgado 23 R 0 4 9.43 9.43 7.43 27.7 .335 .322 .413 .476 3 4.9
X-Luis Arroyo 25 L 0 1 8.53 9.24 7.55 12.7 .344 .333 .422 .472 1 7.1
X-D.J. Harris 28 R 0 0 7.71 9.64 9.07 14.0 .375 .317 .411 .575 4 3.9
X-Marcus Moore 28 R 0 1 11.25 11.25 8.37 12.0 .388 .298 .459 .493 2 9.0
Douglas Dimma 20 L 0 0 9.00 9.00 16.73 1.0 .395 .500 .5001.316 1 9.0
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Knoxville Smokies 71-69 (Final Unofficial) -- AA
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Prospect Age: 23, Competitive Adjustment: 1.44, Park Factor: 1.05
1999 League Averages: RA=5.17, R/ERP=1.04, R/ER=1.17
Adam Melhuse (the next Ernie Whitt?) moved to the outfield. Joe Lawrence
moved from shortstop to third-base. Brent Abernathy is considered to be a
top second-base prospect. Brian Loyd was picked up in the Randy Myers trade:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Adam Melhuse 27 S OF .254 .294 .454 .513 8.55 89 79 69 19 5 6 489
Tim Giles 23 L 1B .247 .311 .380 .473 6.43 87 76 114 18 0 2 577
Joe Lawrence 22 R 3B .245 .264 .402 .428 6.28 46 52 24 7 7 6 311
Rudy Gomez 24 R SS .243 .281 .390 .475 6.74 81 74 92 17 10 4 516
X-Andy Thompson 23 R OF .243 .244 .346 .508 6.18 46 56 53 15 7 3 301
Fausto Solano 25 R SS .239 .305 .408 .477 6.72 66 62 61 14 11 15 414
Brent Abernathy 21 R 2B .233 .291 .355 .435 5.53 90 108 62 13 34 14 645
Brian Loyd 25 R C .222 .280 .362 .426 5.62 57 53 65 11 9 2 420
Ryan Stromsborg 24 R OF .194 .249 .300 .382 3.83 42 54 45 9 5 4 407
Rob Butler's glossy Batting Average got him a callup to the Jays:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Vernon Wells 20 R OF .264 .340 .400 .519 7.58 21 18 17 3 6 2 120
X-Ryan Freel 23 R OF .253 .283 .382 .500 6.80 9 9 9 1 4 2 55
Chad Rupp 27 R OF .238 .257 .376 .552 7.28 50 49 44 16 7 1 287
Chris Hayes 25 R 3B .229 .287 .395 .434 6.03 22 25 16 2 4 4 152
X-Rob Butler 29 L OF .214 .337 .384 .457 6.13 41 48 36 2 4 5 281
Tony Schifano 24 R OF .184 .272 .299 .337 3.35 9 12 15 0 5 3 97
Mike Strange 25 R 3B .181 .093 .395 .093 3.35 6 10 4 0 1 0 81
X-Selw Langaigne 23 L OF .176 .244 .301 .293 2.77 10 18 10 0 3 4 133
Bobby Cripps 22 L C .164 .172 .240 .310 2.32 6 13 9 2 0 0 96
Alan Probst 28 R C .153 .212 .260 .303 2.53 5 5 7 1 0 0 73
X-Pau Chiaffredo 23 R C -.057 .077 .122 .179 -.17 0 3 3 1 0 0 41
KNOXVILLE .238 .278 .370 .445 5.86 785 824 755151 122 77 5496
Isabel Giron looked really good in '98 but didn't impress in '99 and was
traded for a Tomas Perez replacement. Clayton Andrews (the next Jimmy Key?)
didn't pitch as well as in '98 either:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Bleazard 25 R 5 3 3.22 3.74 4.11 86.7 .279 .257 .333 .360 4 5.1
1-Isabel Giron 21 R 7 5 4.89 5.55 5.18 95.7 .300 .264 .340 .422 12 7.6
X-Clayto Andrews 21 L 10 8 3.93 5.77 5.57 132.7 .302 .281 .369 .425 13 6.3
Josh Bradford 25 R 5 4 5.31 5.57 5.24 105.0 .319 .271 .360 .404 9 7.1
Jason Stevenson 24 R 4 7 6.24 6.73 5.62 92.3 .330 .273 .370 .405 8 7.1
Gary Glover looked good at Knoxville but wasn't as good at Syracuse.
John Sneed looked far from major league quality before or after his callup
to Knoxville. Jay Yennaco was an AAA-pitcher picked up in the Mike Stanley
trade, but he was demoted to AA:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Gary Glover 22 R 8 2 3.56 4.08 3.23 86.0 .257 .224 .294 .327 5 8.1
John Sneed 23 R 3 1 5.08 5.40 6.76 28.3 .317 .311 .431 .445 2 8.9
X-Ty Hartshorn 24 R 4 1 4.79 6.13 6.19 47.0 .326 .326 .383 .471 4 4.6
Jay Yennaco 23 R 3 4 6.60 7.01 6.54 43.7 .331 .299 .361 .519 9 6.2
Mark Hendrickson 25 L 2 7 6.63 7.44 6.14 55.7 .348 .319 .381 .450 4 6.3
Scott Rivette was picked up in the Ed Sprague trade. John Bale was promoted to
AA after the Sinclair trade:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Ernie Delgado 23 R 4 1 3.51 4.73 4.02 51.3 .273 .257 .335 .338 1 5.8
X-John Bale 25 L 2 2 3.75 4.62 4.36 62.3 .293 .258 .303 .403 7 13.1
Scott Rivette 25 R 4 7 3.81 4.62 4.66 78.0 .297 .281 .350 .372 2 8.5
Benny Lowe 25 L 4 6 5.14 5.80 5.53 68.3 .323 .266 .366 .421 8 9.2
X-Brian Smith 26 R 1 2 5.14 6.43 5.33 35.0 .332 .292 .331 .444 4 6.9
Trevor Schaffer 25 R 1 3 5.67 7.17 7.95 54.0 .360 .315 .415 .523 10 3.8
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Luis Arroyo 25 L 0 0 1.35 1.35 -.63 6.7 .112 .095 .136 .120 0 9.5
X-Jim Mann 24 R 1 2 .93 1.86 2.55 9.7 .212 .188 .250 .322 1 11.2
Sean Mcclellan 26 R 1 0 3.48 3.48 4.02 20.7 .281 .240 .333 .340 1 10.5
D.J. Harris 28 R 2 4 7.05 7.50 6.60 60.0 .374 .296 .375 .473 9 5.4
Billy Hibbard 23 R 0 0 8.10 8.10 11.65 3.3 .386 .412 .444 .681 1 .0
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Dunedin Blue Jays 86-51 (Final Unofficial) -- A+
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Prospect Age: 22, Competitive Adjustment: 1.73, Park Factor: 1.02
1999 League Averages: RA=4.88, R/ERP=1.07, R/ER=1.21
Vernon Wells began his season in Dunedin and hit well. Josh Phelps looked
like a good hitting prospect for a catcher. Gord Ash has said Mike Young
is a real prospect:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Vernon Wells 20 R OF .262 .343 .403 .543 7.95 54 43 43 11 13 2 293
Josh Phelps 22 R C .255 .328 .379 .562 7.46 79 72 88 20 6 3 446
Mike Young 22 R 2B .238 .313 .389 .428 6.29 84 86 83 5 30 6 565
Mike Peeples 22 R OF .233 .288 .352 .484 5.94 90 100 68 20 20 11 602
Lorenzo Bagley 23 R OF .226 .280 .368 .465 6.01 47 46 44 12 9 7 321
Cesar Izturis 19 S SS .217 .308 .337 .422 4.99 74 77 77 3 32 16 573
Tony Peters 24 R OF .211 .243 .344 .426 5.29 50 58 50 14 15 4 369
Mike Rodriguez 24 R 3B .198 .281 .330 .400 4.50 33 36 30 4 3 2 279
Paul Chiaffredo 23 R C .197 .253 .323 .387 4.24 32 39 21 3 1 4 294
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Mike Strange 25 R 3B .283 .375 .444 .750 11.55 2 2 3 1 0 0 9
X-Chad Rupp 27 R 1B .280 .308 .500 .692 12.20 4 4 7 1 0 0 18
X-Homer Bush 26 R 2B .246 .357 .438 .500 8.50 3 3 0 0 1 0 16
Jay Gibbons 22 L 1B .246 .311 .382 .505 6.80 38 34 39 9 2 1 238
X-Chris Hayes 25 R 3B .238 .305 .412 .500 7.50 39 42 41 6 12 4 226
X-Geronim Berroa 34 R OF .225 .200 .500 .400 8.85 1 1 2 0 0 0 8
Selwyn Langaigne 23 L OF .200 .294 .341 .378 4.43 25 35 25 2 5 5 220
Greg Morrison 23 L 1B .186 .265 .303 .362 3.67 27 31 34 2 2 1 277
X-Ryan Fleming 23 L OF .173 .228 .304 .301 3.10 12 17 9 0 4 3 138
X-Rya Stromsborg 24 R OF .173 .224 .250 .395 3.23 7 5 9 1 1 1 80
Fred Soriano 24 R 3B .164 .213 .267 .338 2.81 12 21 17 4 3 4 146
X-Alex Delgado 28 R C .130 .170 .220 .298 1.89 3 6 4 2 0 0 50
X-Bobby Cripps 22 L C -.123 .063 .118 .063 -1.21 0 1 1 0 0 0 17
X-Luis Morillo 21 L OF -.167 .000 .000 .000 -2.59 0 1 0 0 0 0 3
DUNEDIN .226 .288 .352 .443 5.50 717 760 695120 159 74 5188
The Jays think Matt McClellan is a prospect. Leoncio Estrella was picked up
from the Mets in the Tony Phillips trade:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-David Bleazard 25 R 6 6 2.28 3.57 2.74 90.7 .284 .215 .282 .280 1 5.8
Matt McClellan 22 R 13 5 3.79 4.21 3.80 147.3 .299 .213 .303 .346 15 8.9
X-John Sneed 23 R 11 2 3.45 3.81 3.63 125.3 .300 .232 .293 .352 10 10.3
Leo Estrella 24 R 14 7 3.21 3.96 4.49 168.0 .319 .267 .333 .386 11 6.2
Woody Heath 23 R 6 4 5.00 5.87 5.40 102.7 .353 .268 .345 .413 11 7.8
Canadian Yan LaChapelle looked good in Winnipeg, but not so good in Dunedin:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Jay Yennaco 23 R 2 0 .82 1.64 2.79 11.0 .238 .244 .279 .308 0 9.0
Pasqual Coco 21 R 4 6 5.64 6.00 5.71 75.0 .349 .279 .367 .419 7 7.1
Yan Lachapelle 23 R 2 3 5.24 5.64 5.50 44.7 .354 .271 .371 .390 3 7.3
X-Paul Quantrill 30 R 0 1 4.50 4.50 3.89 6.0 .359 .238 .273 .431 1 3.0
X-Robert Person 29 R 0 0 3.00 3.00 6.35 3.0 .367 .400 .417 .505 0 9.0
Ty Hartshorn 24 R 3 1 6.68 7.26 7.48 31.0 .402 .333 .407 .485 3 8.7
Bob File pitched very well but the Jays had him in a league in which we was
one year over prospect age:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Bob File 23 R 4 1 1.70 2.21 1.69 53.0 .229 .165 .240 .238 2 8.2
Matt Weimer 24 R 6 3 2.89 3.17 4.10 65.3 .303 .245 .314 .365 5 5.1
David Huggins 23 R 2 3 3.09 3.73 5.57 70.0 .326 .267 .387 .367 3 7.3
Jaron Seabury 23 R 4 3 5.37 5.53 4.76 53.7 .344 .286 .355 .375 1 5.7
Colin Brackeen 24 L 2 1 3.88 4.89 6.11 53.3 .354 .284 .389 .411 4 5.6
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Trevo Schaffer 25 R 3 1 1.98 1.98 2.00 13.7 .244 .182 .280 .230 0 6.6
Billy Hibbard 23 R 3 2 4.72 4.72 4.34 55.3 .328 .258 .320 .379 4 5.5
X-Sean McClellan 26 R 0 0 6.00 6.00 2.77 3.0 .342 .100 .182 .400 1 15.0
Clint Lawrence 22 L 1 2 7.61 8.75 8.41 23.7 .404 .309 .430 .535 5 6.1
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Hagerstown Suns 84-56 (Final Unofficial) -- A
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Prospect Age: 21, Competitive Adjustment: 2.07, Park Factor: 1.05
1999 League Averages: RA=4.81, R/ERP=1.11, R/ER=1.23
Felipe Lopez hit well for a 19-year-old in A-ball:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Jay Gibbons 22 L 1B .229 .305 .370 .551 7.24 57 53 69 16 3 0 330
Tyler Thompson 23 R OF .213 .261 .375 .455 6.33 80 84 81 17 20 2 528
Felipe Lopez 19 S SS .207 .277 .351 .421 5.19 80 87 80 14 21 13 607
Jorge Nunez 21 R 2B .205 .268 .317 .431 5.04 82 116 61 14 51 8 608
Orlando Hudson 19 S 3B .195 .267 .322 .402 4.43 65 66 74 7 8 6 562
Joe Dusan 21 L 1B .194 .239 .321 .395 4.41 32 26 37 8 3 1 274
Matt Logan 19 L 1B .176 .243 .293 .353 3.45 46 55 57 9 3 2 491
Jeff Maloney 22 S OF .175 .233 .300 .364 3.72 34 36 37 7 8 4 337
Justin Davies 22 L OF .165 .197 .342 .217 3.18 41 69 23 0 36 15 485
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ryan Fleming 23 L OF .211 .335 .390 .445 6.18 37 34 35 4 7 6 254
Jose Umbria 21 R C .204 .290 .374 .366 4.98 26 24 20 3 2 2 214
Ryan Bundy 21 R C .189 .222 .324 .366 4.13 19 19 17 5 5 3 176
Jesse Zepeda 25 S 3B .178 .225 .348 .338 4.40 29 26 34 5 3 0 267
Mike Kremblas 23 R C .158 .206 .323 .248 3.00 15 22 7 0 2 0 195
X-Juan Nieves 22 R OF .119 .146 .226 .208 1.42 6 14 14 1 7 1 146
HAGERSTOWN .197 .254 .334 .385 4.60 648 731 646110 179 63 5474
Coco pitched very well in A-ball but didn't fare so well once promoted to
Dunedin:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Pasqual Coco 21 R 11 1 2.21 2.67 2.44 97.7 .265 .193 .262 .275 4 7.6
Pat Lynch 21 R 10 5 3.52 3.88 4.47 127.7 .325 .271 .308 .398 10 7.5
Taylor Smith 20 R 7 10 3.83 4.57 4.05 171.3 .327 .242 .307 .351 11 6.3
Scott Cassidy 23 R 13 7 3.27 4.11 3.76 170.7 .331 .236 .292 .354 13 9.4
Joe Casey 20 R 7 14 4.69 6.27 5.39 142.0 .366 .270 .354 .390 10 5.0
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Ryan Spille 22 L 7 1 2.20 2.58 2.48 69.7 .274 .204 .262 .292 3 6.3
Marcos Sandoval 18 R 4 3 4.55 5.10 5.74 83.0 .360 .280 .372 .405 6 5.7
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mike Stafford 24 L 3 2 2.70 2.70 2.38 50.0 .288 .206 .251 .290 2 7.2
Jarrod Kingrey 22 R 3 2 3.10 3.54 4.03 61.0 .323 .217 .314 .334 5 10.2
Eric Place 24 L 6 4 3.13 4.25 3.56 72.0 .334 .216 .319 .294 2 7.0
Orlando Woodards 21 R 7 4 4.15 5.04 4.33 80.3 .338 .224 .335 .329 5 8.9
Brian Bowles 22 R 6 2 3.97 4.65 4.87 79.3 .353 .246 .352 .347 4 9.1
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Peyton Lewis 23 R 0 0 .00 .00 -1.89 2.0-.187 .000 .125 .000 0 22.5
Justin Stine 22 L 0 0 3.86 4.18 4.58 28.0 .343 .268 .323 .363 1 6.4
X-Tom LaRosa 24 R 0 0 4.76 6.35 6.74 11.3 .412 .220 .450 .277 0 14.3
X-Tom Dreier 22 R 0 0 6.75 10.61 9.11 9.3 .463 .293 .420 .503 2 9.6
X-Matt Gourlay 20 R 0 1 13.50 13.50 13.26 6.7 .521 .385 .595 .486 0 6.8
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St. Catharines Stompers 34-42 (Final Unofficial) -- A-
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Prospect Age: 20, Competitive Adjustment: 2.49, Park Factor: 1.02
1999 League Averages: RA=4.89, R/ERP=1.12, R/ER=1.23
Shannon Carter was picked up in the Juan Guzman trade:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Josh Holliday 22 S 1B .216 .255 .439 .463 7.72 48 50 37 10 1 2 294
Brandon Jackson 23 R SS .198 .332 .420 .430 6.50 38 37 25 2 3 8 255
Domingo Estevez 21 S 2B .181 .255 .333 .415 4.78 31 31 28 3 12 9 243
Ike Pohle 22 R C .180 .239 .349 .394 4.89 20 19 20 4 0 1 169
Jesus Lebron 21 R OF .178 .239 .323 .381 4.53 30 37 29 6 15 4 251
Shannon Carter 20 L OF .174 .279 .319 .353 3.95 24 38 16 1 15 6 229
Reed Johnson 22 R OF .163 .241 .326 .335 3.81 22 24 23 2 5 5 221
Santos Gonzalez 22 S SS .155 .233 .293 .327 3.38 15 14 14 3 9 2 164
Jossep Bernhardt 18 R 3B .154 .243 .261 .345 2.92 23 20 35 5 2 1 283
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Casey Blake 25 R 3B .356 .667 .750 .667 30.69 1 0 0 0 0 0 4
X-Bobby Cripps 22 L C .189 .290 .324 .484 5.54 5 3 7 2 0 0 34
Fred Smith 21 R OF .171 .223 .348 .285 4.13 17 10 12 1 13 3 158
Auntwan Riggins 23 S 1B .164 .238 .344 .286 4.05 13 16 11 0 12 2 122
Victor Morales 21 S 1B .147 .220 .304 .250 2.82 11 10 16 0 7 0 148
Juan Santos 21 S C .140 .172 .298 .242 2.50 10 16 8 1 1 1 151
Jermaine Davis 20 R OF .117 .158 .198 .287 1.47 5 7 11 2 1 2 106
ST. CATHARINES .180 .246 .334 .357 4.29 313 332 292 42 96 46 2832
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Aaron Dean 22 L 4 0 2.34 2.63 3.16 61.7 .319 .224 .281 .320 3 9.9
Frankl Gracesqui 19 L 2 3 5.05 5.83 6.41 46.3 .408 .253 .400 .382 4 8.7
Steve Murray 19 L 1 4 5.68 7.26 5.96 57.0 .418 .294 .337 .455 7 7.3
Chris Baker 21 R 2 4 6.20 6.75 6.15 49.3 .434 .298 .345 .456 6 10.0
Diegoma Markwell 18 L 3 4 7.58 8.34 7.34 59.3 .453 .287 .388 .450 8 8.2
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Ryan Spille 22 L 1 0 .00 .00 .11 5.0 .064 .125 .176 .158 0 9.0
X-Justin Stine 22 L 2 0 1.08 1.08 2.09 8.3 .252 .179 .207 .323 1 4.3
Travis Hubbel 20 R 0 0 1.80 2.25 3.32 20.0 .296 .213 .289 .306 1 8.6
Jim Detwiler 23 L 2 4 3.27 4.70 5.40 44.0 .400 .260 .357 .376 3 9.2
X-Chri Carpenter 24 R 0 0 4.50 4.50 4.90 4.0 .405 .294 .333 .372 0 13.5
Joe Orloski 20 R 3 9 4.59 6.68 6.52 64.7 .415 .301 .355 .472 9 7.9
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Peyton Lewis 23 R 2 1 1.31 1.74 2.46 41.3 .283 .181 .264 .266 2 11.8
Douglas Dimma 20 L 3 1 3.78 5.48 5.19 47.7 .381 .264 .371 .348 1 7.9
Chad Needle 20 R 1 2 5.85 5.85 5.49 20.0 .400 .234 .294 .473 5 9.0
Marc Bluma 22 R 3 4 5.92 5.92 4.19 24.3 .404 .227 .286 .371 3 11.8
Matt Gourlay 20 R 1 1 5.21 8.05 6.72 19.0 .432 .194 .379 .398 4 11.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
1-Dustin Seale 21 L 0 1 2.70 2.70 2.33 3.3 .300 .167 .286 .211 0 10.8
Tom Dreier 22 R 1 0 2.53 2.53 3.00 10.7 .316 .162 .326 .205 0 12.7
Dana Reece 22 L 1 0 2.70 2.70 3.81 6.7 .337 .174 .296 .339 1 9.5
Robert Nunley 18 R 0 0 3.12 3.12 4.72 8.7 .344 .258 .314 .414 1 10.4
Auntwan Riggins 23 R 0 0 .00 .00 8.36 1.0 .374 .400 .400 .505 0 9.0
Tyler Renwick 20 R 2 4 5.31 6.46 5.53 39.0 .403 .241 .381 .343 2 7.4
Ronald Bost 19 L 0 0 7.36 7.36 5.13 3.7 .417 .154 .313 .405 1 4.9
Lee Southard 21 R 0 0 10.38 10.38 10.03 4.3 .525 .133 .552 .168 0 12.5
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Medicine Hat Blue Jays 33-43 (Final Unofficial) -- R+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 19, Competitive Adjustment: 2.99, Park Factor: 1.00
1999 League Averages: RA=6.56, R/ERP=1.20, R/ER=1.28
The Jays' top draft-pick in '99, Alex Rios, just played in the outfield
(no games at third-base):
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Chivas Clark 20 L OF .167 .270 .372 .427 5.73 44 56 29 6 12 5 312
Robert Cornett 22 R 1B .166 .289 .389 .434 6.18 28 26 36 3 1 1 198
Christoph Weekly 22 L 2B .166 .300 .370 .455 6.16 43 43 42 6 12 2 289
Brian Sherlock 23 R 1B .165 .291 .399 .419 6.33 47 43 50 6 17 5 316
Robert Cosby 18 S 3B .153 .270 .309 .382 4.23 22 22 25 3 10 3 194
Guillermo Quiroz 17 R C .146 .221 .296 .385 3.75 24 25 28 9 0 2 230
Alexis Rios 18 R OF .143 .269 .321 .325 3.57 24 35 13 0 8 4 252
Michael Snyder 18 L 3B .137 .209 .320 .291 3.22 20 30 19 3 3 4 228
Aaron Fera 21 R OF .136 .221 .295 .362 3.60 23 26 29 6 3 2 237
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Robert Fiero 21 R C .158 .237 .418 .271 5.17 9 10 10 0 0 0 79
Douglas Roper 21 R SS .145 .248 .344 .328 4.22 17 20 10 0 8 2 157
Brian Mitchell 22 R 2B .142 .226 .337 .369 4.14 11 13 11 2 1 3 98
Alexis Guzman 19 S SS .133 .215 .298 .282 2.94 13 28 10 0 3 1 171
Jonny Juarez 21 L OF .131 .255 .304 .294 3.27 10 11 10 1 8 2 112
Robert Gutierrez 18 R 3B .103 .150 .227 .250 1.57 1 1 1 0 0 0 22
MEDICINE HAT .158 .255 .341 .371 4.54 336 389 323 45 86 36 2895
Matt Ford stood out among the rookie-class starters:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Matthew Ford 18 L 4 0 2.05 2.05 2.46 48.3 .267 .182 .280 .230 0 12.7
Gustavo Chacin 19 L 4 3 3.09 4.64 6.05 64.0 .368 .281 .355 .423 6 7.0
David Hanson 18 R 1 2 5.32 6.50 7.49 45.7 .415 .335 .405 .438 1 6.9
Robert Hamann 22 R 2 8 3.93 6.42 6.57 75.7 .424 .305 .341 .465 9 5.4
George Perez 20 R 2 2 5.79 7.39 7.37 56.0 .438 .289 .373 .474 9 6.6
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Cameron Reimers 20 R 1 5 3.25 4.26 3.79 44.3 .343 .235 .290 .330 2 5.9
Christophe Baker 21 R 0 1 3.12 4.15 3.59 8.7 .343 .235 .297 .297 0 9.3
Brian Cardwell 18 R 2 1 5.16 6.67 6.75 29.7 .406 .276 .338 .460 5 7.9
Jim Detwiler 23 L 0 0 4.91 4.91 6.21 11.0 .419 .250 .333 .453 2 11.5
Ryan McCullem 18 L 2 1 6.08 6.46 7.71 23.7 .421 .337 .402 .452 1 7.2
Ryan Houston 19 R 3 4 6.70 8.08 7.59 45.7 .434 .321 .386 .463 4 5.9
Mark Curtis 21 L 1 3 6.89 8.33 9.88 31.3 .486 .348 .411 .582 7 10.3
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Josh Stevens 20 R 5 1 2.45 4.30 3.88 29.3 .339 .243 .277 .357 2 10.4
Timothy Newman 20 R 1 0 4.73 7.09 6.21 26.7 .415 .248 .325 .443 5 9.8
Chris Mowday 17 R 2 6 5.97 7.85 6.79 28.7 .420 .291 .361 .437 3 8.8
Reuben St. Amand 19 R 0 1 6.11 7.39 7.50 28.0 .426 .274 .368 .468 5 7.7
Scott Porter 22 R 1 3 5.49 7.32 6.20 19.7 .436 .274 .358 .378 1 13.3
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Perfecto Gaud 20 L 0 1 8.27 9.58 8.43 20.7 .477 .280 .417 .454 3 11.3
X-Dana Reece 22 L 2 1 7.71 8.49 11.94 11.7 .521 .328 .409 .603 4 10.8
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Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA) is a park-adjusted, league-average-adjusted,
competition-level-adjusted and minor-league-experience-adjusted stat which
estimates how the player would have performed in the major leagues:
.260 represents average major league performance;
.300 represents excellent major league batting, poor major league pitching.
For batters, EqA is based mainly on hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks,
steals, caught stealing and at bats. These are combined using the Estimated
Runs Produced (ERP) formula, from which R27 (ERP per 27 outs) is estimated,
and R27 is multipled by the listed [R/ERP] factor for the league to get the
R9 value for the EqA formula below.
For pitchers, EqA is based on ERA, RA (like ERA, but includes unearned runs),
and R27 (Estimated Runs Produced against the pitcher based on hits, walks,
home runs, and innings pitched, per 27 outs). In the EqA formula below,
R9 = (ERA*[R/ER])/6 + RA/3 + (R27*[R/ERP])/2, where [R/ER] is the listed
Run-to-Earned-Run ratio for the player's league (typically 1.1 in the
majors, higher in the minors), and [R/ERP] is the listed
Run-to-Estimated-Runs-Produced ratio for the player's league (typically
1.0 in the majors, higher in the minors).
Note: The purpose of the [R/ER] and [R/ERP] factors is to put ERA and
R27 on the same scale as RA for comparison to the league average;
these factors are higher for the lower leagues, presumably
because more errors are made.
The EqA formula is
EqA = ( (( R9 / ( PF * DiffAdj * AgeAdj ) / AvgR9 )) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where
R9 is as explained above for batters and pitchers,
PF is the Park Factor (listed for each team),
DiffAdj is the listed Competitive Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Competitive Adjustment) for pitchers,
(the Competitive Adjustment is (1.20^n) where n is the number
of levels down from the majors);
AgeAdj is the Age Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Age Adjustment) for pitchers, where the Age Adjustment is
1.0 for players of the listed Prospect Age or younger
1.045^(YearsOverage+1) for older players where
YearsOverage is the lesser of (Age minus Prospect Age) and 10;
AvgR9 is the listed League Average Runs per 9 Innings (RA) (in the case
of batters, this number is divided by 1.03 because of the DH rule)
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'pitchers' may differ from what he would do,
and my formulas and adjustment factors for 'hitters' differ.
The age adjustment is loosely based on his Aug 9/98 post to
news:rec.sport.baseball; in that article, he suggests treating every
2 years over-age as the same as being one level lower, but for me
that results in a bigger adjustment than is reflected in his
examples, so I used the above age adjustment to fit his examples.
Also, I arbitrarily added the 10 year maximum. Davenport believes
based on his studies that older players have an "Experience Advantage"
in the minor leagues which improves their minor league performance but
doesn't carry over to the majors.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
Age: as of July 1, 1999
X- No longer in league
1- 1st team played for in this league this year
2- 2nd team played for in this league this year
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, explained above
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, estimated as 26*ERP/(AB-H+CS)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced, explained above
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use ERP instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB+HBP)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, explained above
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
D: Doubles, estimated as .219*(H-HR)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as 0
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as 0
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is taken from the Toronto Blue Jays web site
http://www.bluejays.ca/stats/minors/1999/org.cgi
1999 League Averages were derived from the numbers in STATS Minor League
Handbook 2000. Many of the ages were also derived from this source.
Park factors are derived from the ones listed in Baseball Prospectus 2000
and STATS Minor League Handbook 1998.
Equivalent Average is in the same spirit as described by Clay Davenport in
Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay Davenport, Rany
Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
The age adjustment (also known as experience advantage) concept is based on
Clay Davenport's Aug 9/98 article in news:rec.sport.baseball.
Competition Adjustments were based in part on "reverse engineering" the
Equivalent Averages of minor leaguers listed in Baseball Prospectus 1998.
My hitter EqAs are similar down to at least A-ball but my pitcher
adjustments seem to be larger.
The landmark study in "Making Sense of Minor League Batting Statistics" was
published by Bill James in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1985. Note that
it did not look at whether translated minor league pitching stats were as
reliable a predictor of major league performance as translated minor league
batting stats, nor did it look at batters below AAA level.
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 2000 Aug 28
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.