"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1999 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1999 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 147, Willis Otanez 13, David Segui 4
Second Base: Homer Bush 109, Pat Kelly 35, Craig Grebeck 17,
Norberto Martin 8, Tony Fernandez 1
Shortstop: Tony Batista 98, Alex Gonzalez 37, Homer Bush 18,
Chris Woodward 10, Craig Grebeck 4, Norberto Martin 1
Third Base: Tony Fernandez 132, Willis Otanez 24, Casey Blake 14
Willie Greene 7, Craig Grebeck 2, Mark Dalesandro 2,
Chris Woodward 2
Left Field: Shannon Stewart 140, Jacob Brumfield 10, Jose Cruz 9,
Patrick Lennon 5, Geronimo Berroa 2, Rob Butler 2,
Anthony Sanders 1
Center Field: Jose Cruz 97, Jacob Brumfield 36, Vernon Wells 24,
Brian McRae 13, Shannon Stewart 7, Curtis Goodwin 2
Right Field: Shawn Green 152, Jacob Brumfield 8, Patrick Lennon 4,
Willie Greene 3
Catcher: Darrin Fletcher 113, Mike Matheny 57, Mark Dalesandro 8,
Pat Borders 3, Kevin Brown 2
Starting Pitcher: David Wells 34, Pat Hentgen 34, Kelvim Escobar 30,
Chris Carpenter 24, Roy Halladay 18, Joey Hamilton 18,
Paul Spoljaric 2, Peter Munro 2
Relief Pitcher: Graeme Lloyd 74, Billy Koch 56, Paul Quantrill 41,
Paul Spoljaric 35, John Frascatore 33, Dan Plesac 30,
Tom Davey 29, Peter Munro 29, Roy Halladay 18,
Robert Person 11, Joey Hamilton 4, Kelvim Escobar 3,
Mike Romano 3, John Hudek 3, Steve Sinclair 3,
Nerio Rodriguez 2, Gary Glover 1, John Bale 1,
Eric Ludwick 1
Designated Hitter: Willie Greene 51, David Segui 25, Dave Hollins 23,
Geronimo Berroa 17, Brian McRae 15, Kevin Witt 11,
Craig Grebeck 10, Tony Fernandez 9, Jacob Brumfield 6,
Mark Dalesandro 5, Carlos Delgado 5, Willis Otanez 3,
Rob Butler 3, Pat Borders 3, Pat Kelly 2,
Anthony Sanders 2, Shannon Stewart 2, Alex Gonzalez 1
Manager: Jim Fregosi
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1999 in Context
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The Jays were in a playoff spot on Aug 12/99, but then the pitching & defense
collapsed while the Red Sox soared:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Cleveland 6.26 | ( 1) Boston 4.50 | ( 1) NYYankees 98-64 .605
( 2) Texas 5.92 | ( 2) NYYankees 4.57 | ( 2) Cleveland 97-65 .599
( 3) NYYankees 5.63 | ( 3) Baltimore 5.11 | ( 3) Texas 95-67 .586
( 4) Oakland 5.59 | ( 4) Anaheim 5.19 | ( 4) Boston 94-68 .580
( 5) TORONTO 5.52 | ( 5) Oakland 5.29 | ( 5) Oakland 87-75 .537
( 6) Kansas City 5.42 | ( 6) Cleveland 5.34 | ( 6) TORONTO 84-78 .519
( 7) Seattle 5.39 | ( 7) Minnesota 5.36 | ( 7) Seattle 79-83 .488
( 8) Baltimore 5.34 | ( 8) Texas 5.38 | ( 8) Baltimore 78-84 .481
( 9) Boston 5.24 | ( 9) TORONTO 5.39 | ( 9) White Sox 75-86 .466
(10) White Sox 4.88 | (10) White Sox 5.46 | (10) Anaheim 70-92 .432
(11) Tampa Bay 4.85 | (11) Detroit 5.59 | (11) Detroit 69-92 .429
(12) Detroit 4.73 | (12) Seattle 5.68 | (12) Tampa Bay 69-93 .426
(13) Anaheim 4.47 | (13) Tampa Bay 5.73 | (13) Kansas City 64-97 .398
(14) Minnesota 4.35 | (14) Kansas City 5.83 | (14) Minnesota 63-97 .394
Avg 5.26 Avg 5.32 1122-1141
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays were one of the better hitting
teams in the league:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CLE NYY OAK TEX TOR SEA BAL KAN CHW BOS TAM DET ANA MIN
.275 .273 .268 .267 .264 .264 .264 .262 .256 .255 .249 .248 .245 .238
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays had a rare year worse than
average:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS NYY TEX CLE MIN BAL ANA TOR OAK DET TAM CHW SEA KAN
.240 .251 .257 .258 .259 .260 .260 .262 .262 .265 .266 .268 .270 .270
The park factors were estimated by averaging the 1999 park factor with the
1996-1998 park factor (except when the park changed):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 12 13 14
TEX BOS CLE MIN TAM DET KAN TOR ANA OAK SEA BAL CHW NYY
5.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 .5 .5 .0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.5
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'99 Hitters
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Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado were the Jays' best hitters, both with a .300+
Equivalent Average and 100+ Equivalent Runs. Tony Fernandez had an all-star
first-half. Tony Batista was the Jays' best shortstop since '93. Darrin
Fletcher, Jose Cruz, Shannon Stewart and Homer Bush were almost equally
productive per out used. The Jays' DHs hit like shortstops:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Shawn Green 26 L RF .308 .309 .384 .588 7.74 115 134 123 42 20 7 696
Carlos Delgado 27 L 1B .301 .272 .376 .571 7.33 105 113 134 44 1 1 680
Tony Fernandez 37 S 3B .295 .328 .427 .449 6.95 80 73 75 6 6 7 576
Tony Batista 25 R SS .286 .288 .330 .568 6.44 59 61 79 26 2 0 406
Darrin Fletcher 32 L C .271 .291 .339 .485 5.62 56 48 80 18 0 0 448
Jose CruzJr 25 S CF .268 .241 .358 .433 5.47 51 63 45 14 14 4 413
Shannon Stewart 25 R LF .267 .304 .371 .411 5.43 82 102 67 11 37 14 677
Homer Bush 26 R 2B .264 .320 .353 .421 5.29 62 69 55 5 32 8 515
Willie Greene 27 L DH .222 .204 .266 .394 3.44 21 22 41 12 0 0 248
On July 28/99, the Jays traded RHP Tom Davey and LHP Steve Sinclair to the
Mariners for 1B David Segui to fill the DH hole, but he was out with a hand
injury for a month, which was typical of the Jays' luck at DH in 1999:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Craig Grebeck 34 R 2B .298 .363 .443 .425 7.15 18 18 10 0 0 0 131
David Segui 32 S 1B .289 .316 .365 .526 6.62 15 14 13 5 0 0 104
Alex Gonzalez 26 R SS .266 .292 .370 .416 5.36 20 22 12 2 4 2 173
Pat Kelly 31 R 2B .262 .267 .318 .483 5.19 15 17 20 6 0 1 129
Willis Otanez 26 R 3B .246 .252 .307 .433 4.42 14 21 13 5 0 0 137
Brian McRae 31 S CF .243 .195 .340 .366 4.28 10 11 11 3 0 1 100
Jacob Brumfield 34 R OF .227 .235 .307 .353 3.61 16 24 19 2 1 2 192
Dave Hollins 33 R DH .200 .222 .260 .333 2.65 7 12 6 2 0 0 104
Mike Matheny 28 R C .199 .215 .271 .307 2.59 11 16 17 3 0 0 177
The Jays called up Vernon Wells in late August after Cruz had a summer slump,
but he didn't hit well enough in the majors (or in the minors) to suggest he
was ready to replace Cruz or Stewart in 2000:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Kevin L Brown 26 R C .348 .444 .444 .667 10.52 2 1 1 0 0 0 9
Norberto Martin 32 R 2B .238 .222 .364 .296 4.06 3 3 0 0 0 0 33
Anthony Sanders 25 R DH .236 .286 .286 .429 3.99 1 1 2 0 0 0 7
Pat Borders 36 R C .231 .214 .267 .429 3.76 1 1 3 1 0 0 15
Casey Blake 25 R 3B .228 .256 .293 .385 3.65 4 6 1 1 0 0 41
Patrick Lennon 31 R OF .224 .207 .281 .379 3.49 3 3 6 1 0 0 32
Vernon Wells 20 R CF .218 .261 .293 .352 3.27 7 8 8 1 1 1 92
Geronimo Berroa 34 R DH .215 .194 .315 .290 3.17 5 11 6 1 0 0 73
Kevin Witt 23 L DH .194 .206 .250 .324 2.45 2 3 5 1 0 0 36
Chris Woodward 23 R SS .191 .231 .276 .269 2.35 2 1 2 0 0 0 29
Rob Butler 29 L OF .128 .143 .250 .143 .86 0 1 1 0 0 0 8
Mark Dalesandro 31 R C .124 .185 .207 .185 .80 1 3 1 0 1 0 29
The Pitchers -.156 .053 .100 .053 -1.41 -1 0 0 0 0 0 20
Curtis Goodwin 26 L CF -.197 .000 .000 .000 -2.54 -1 0 0 0 0 0 8
Triples:
Homer Bush 4, Jose CruzJr 3, Jacob Brumfield 3, Shannon Stewart 2,
Tony Batista 1, Brian McRae 1
Doubles (leaders):
Shawn Green 45, Tony Fernandez 41, Carlos Delgado 39, Shannon Stewart 28,
Homer Bush 26, Darrin Fletcher 26, Tony Batista 25, Jose CruzJr 19
Times On Base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) (leaders):
Shawn Green 267, Carlos Delgado 256, Shannon Stewart 251,
Tony Fernandez 246, Homer Bush 182, Darrin Fletcher 152, Jose CruzJr 148
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Shannon Stewart 437, Shawn Green 431, Carlos Delgado 418, Homer Bush 338,
Tony Fernandez 333, Darrin Fletcher 292, Jose CruzJr 269, Tony Batista 267
Jose Cruz was criticized for having a high strikeout-to-at-bat ratio, but
his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.4 was below the league average of 1.7:
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Vernon Wells 4.5, Dave Hollins 4.4, Homer Bush 3.9, Tony Batista 3.6,
Willis Otanez 3.3, Mike Matheny 3.1, Willie Greene 2.8, Pat Kelly 2.3,
David Segui 2.1, Jacob Brumfield 2.1, Darrin Fletcher 1.8, Shawn Green 1.8,
Carlos Delgado 1.6, Alex Gonzalez 1.4, Jose CruzJr 1.4,
Shannon Stewart 1.4, Brian McRae 1.4, Craig Grebeck .9, Tony Fernandez .8
Games Played (leaders):
Shawn Green 153, Carlos Delgado 152, Shannon Stewart 145,
Tony Fernandez 142, Homer Bush 128, Darrin Fletcher 115, Jose CruzJr 106
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'99 Starting Pitchers
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On Feb 18/99, the Jays traded RHP Roger Clemens to the Yankees for LHP David
Wells, LHP Graeme Lloyd and 2B Homer Bush. In '99, Wells was half a win
better than Clemens and the Jays' best starter overall. Roy Halladay was
the Jays' most effective starter when he got the chance to start:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roy Halladay 22 R 8 7 3.92 4.58 5.38 149.3 .253 .268 .359 .427 19 4.9
David Wells 36 L 17 10 4.82 5.13 4.79 231.7 .254 .271 .322 .439 32 6.6
Chris Carpenter 24 R 9 8 4.38 4.86 5.28 150.0 .255 .292 .347 .442 16 6.4
Pat Hentgen 30 R 11 12 4.79 5.20 5.45 199.0 .261 .284 .340 .469 32 5.3
Kelvim Escobar 23 R 14 11 5.69 6.10 5.76 174.0 .273 .290 .372 .441 19 6.7
On Dec 14/98 on Dave Stewart's advice, the Jays traded RHP Woody Williams,
RHP Carlos Almanzar and OF Peter Tucci to the Padres for RHP Joey Hamilton.
Hamilton was injured most of the year and 1.5 wins worse than Williams in '99
according to Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral W/L Report:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Joey Hamilton 28 R 7 8 6.52 6.70 5.86 98.0 .280 .296 .364 .464 13 5.1
Games Started:
David Wells 34, Pat Hentgen 34, Kelvim Escobar 30, Chris Carpenter 24,
Roy Halladay 18, Joey Hamilton 18, Paul Spoljaric 2, Peter Munro 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
David Wells 6.8, Chris Carpenter 6.3, Pat Hentgen 5.9, Kelvim Escobar 5.3,
Joey Hamilton 4.5, Roy Halladay 4.1
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'99 Relief Pitchers
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Billy Koch impressed after his callup May 5/99, but 4 of his losses were part
of the post-Aug 12 collapse. Graeme Lloyd was also ineffective after Aug 12
despite good overall numbers:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Billy Koch 24 R 0 5 3.39 3.68 3.97 63.7 .229 .232 .326 .351 5 8.1
Paul Quantrill 30 R 3 2 3.33 3.51 5.05 48.7 .239 .276 .347 .420 5 5.2
Graeme Lloyd 32 L 5 3 3.63 4.50 4.50 72.0 .242 .248 .314 .424 11 5.9
John Frascatore 29 R 7 1 3.41 3.89 5.07 37.0 .243 .284 .330 .452 5 5.4
Paul Spoljaric 28 L 2 2 4.65 5.95 5.27 62.0 .263 .259 .351 .431 9 9.1
On June 12/99, the Jays traded LHP Dan Plesac to Arizona for SS Tony Batista
and RHP John Frascatore, a steal for the Jays which compensated for the
D'Backs swiping Omar Daal two years earlier. On May 5/99, the Jays traded
RHP Robert Person to the Phillies for LHP Paul Spoljaric:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Gary Glover 22 R 0 0 .00 .00 .38 1.0 .069 .000 .259 .000 0 .0
Tom Davey 25 R 1 1 4.70 5.73 4.89 44.0 .258 .241 .354 .388 5 8.6
Peter Munro 24 R 0 2 6.02 6.18 6.05 55.3 .277 .307 .375 .460 6 6.2
Dan Plesac 37 L 0 3 8.34 8.34 6.27 22.7 .298 .302 .364 .499 4 10.3
Robert Person 29 R 0 2 9.82 9.82 7.37 11.0 .318 .223 .471 .349 1 9.8
Mike Romano 27 R 0 0 11.81 13.50 9.28 5.3 .352 .344 .460 .553 1 5.1
John Bale 25 L 0 0 13.50 13.50 9.35 2.0 .356 .259 .412 .682 1 18.0
John Hudek 32 R 0 0 12.27 12.27 11.47 3.7 .362 .433 .462 .695 1 4.9
Steve Sinclair 27 L 0 0 12.71 12.71 11.80 5.7 .366 .302 .426 .853 4 4.8
Nerio Rodriguez 26 R 0 1 13.50 13.50 13.23 2.0 .379 .259 .4121.037 2 9.0
Eric Ludwick 27 R 0 0 27.00 27.00 18.55 1.0 .470 .512 .636 .647 0 .0
Relief Appearances:
Graeme Lloyd 74, Billy Koch 56, Paul Quantrill 41, Paul Spoljaric 35,
John Frascatore 33, Dan Plesac 30, Tom Davey 29, Peter Munro 29,
Roy Halladay 18, Robert Person 11, Joey Hamilton 4, Kelvim Escobar 3,
Mike Romano 3, John Hudek 3, Steve Sinclair 3, Nerio Rodriguez 2,
Gary Glover 1, John Bale 1, Eric Ludwick 1
Saves:
Billy Koch 31, Graeme Lloyd 3, Robert Person 2, John Frascatore 1,
Roy Halladay 1, Tom Davey 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
John Bale 2.0, Steve Sinclair 1.9, Peter Munro 1.8, Mike Romano 1.8,
Paul Spoljaric 1.7, Tom Davey 1.5, John Hudek 1.2, Paul Quantrill 1.2,
Billy Koch 1.1, John Frascatore 1.1, Gary Glover 1.0, Robert Person 1.0,
Nerio Rodriguez 1.0, Eric Ludwick 1.0, Graeme Lloyd 1.0, Dan Plesac .8
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Former and Future Jays in '99
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Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Roberto Alomar CLE .313 .323 .421 .533 8.31 108 138 120 24 37 6 681
Fred McGriff TAM .305 .310 .404 .552 7.75 96 75 104 32 1 0 619
John Olerud NYM .301 .298 .427 .463 7.28 103 107 96 19 3 0 723
Jose Canseco TAM .296 .279 .369 .563 7.16 75 75 95 34 3 0 502
Mike Stanley BOS .282 .281 .391 .466 6.47 66 59 72 19 0 0 511
Tony Phillips OAK .271 .244 .360 .433 5.51 60 76 49 15 11 3 483
David Segui SEA .269 .293 .352 .452 5.42 47 43 39 9 1 2 381
Ed Sprague PIT .263 .267 .351 .465 5.50 66 71 81 22 3 6 562
Devon White LAD .256 .268 .337 .407 4.76 60 60 68 14 19 5 526
Benito Santiago CHC .228 .249 .313 .377 3.93 33 28 36 7 1 1 386
Otis Nixon ATL .211 .205 .309 .232 3.00 13 31 8 0 26 7 175
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Turner Ward ARZ .322 .348 .385 .652 8.84 4 6 7 2 0 0 26
Howard Battle ATL .309 .353 .421 .529 7.81 3 2 5 1 0 0 19
Jeff Kent SFG .290 .290 .366 .511 6.44 85 86 101 23 13 6 585
Glenallen Hill CHC .288 .300 .353 .581 7.03 40 43 55 20 5 1 278
Rob Ducey PHI .277 .261 .383 .463 6.20 29 29 33 8 2 1 227
Lee Stevens TEX .267 .282 .344 .485 5.68 70 76 81 24 2 3 576
Orlando Merced MON .266 .268 .353 .464 5.59 26 25 26 8 2 1 221
Greg Myers SDP .256 .289 .355 .391 4.74 15 9 15 3 0 0 141
Brian McRae COL .251 .261 .370 .478 6.07 3 1 1 1 0 0 27
Tony Batista ARZ .249 .257 .335 .396 4.64 17 16 21 5 2 0 164
Darrin Jackson CHW .247 .279 .291 .435 4.28 16 22 16 4 4 1 151
Domingo Cedeno SEA .242 .214 .313 .405 4.18 5 4 8 2 1 1 48
Miguel Cairo TAM .242 .295 .335 .368 4.32 49 61 36 3 22 7 501
Jacob Brumfield LAD .237 .294 .294 .412 3.90 2 4 1 0 0 0 17
Greg Myers ATL .236 .222 .337 .333 4.00 8 10 9 2 0 0 86
Derek Bell HOU .230 .236 .306 .350 3.66 51 61 66 12 18 6 568
Brian McRae NYM .229 .221 .320 .349 3.68 31 35 36 8 2 6 344
Pat Borders CLE .220 .300 .300 .400 3.44 2 2 3 0 0 1 20
Craig Wilson CHW .218 .236 .299 .324 3.15 22 28 26 4 1 1 274
Luis Sojo NYY .215 .252 .275 .346 3.00 10 20 16 2 1 0 131
Chris Stynes CIN .213 .239 .310 .301 3.19 9 18 14 2 5 2 126
Willis Otanez BAL .208 .213 .273 .325 2.83 6 7 11 2 0 0 88
Curtis Goodwin CHC .196 .242 .298 .293 2.69 11 15 9 0 2 4 171
Mark Whiten CLE .194 .160 .250 .320 2.51 2 2 4 1 0 0 28
Abraham Nunez PIT .194 .220 .299 .251 2.55 17 25 17 0 9 1 288
Turner Ward PIT .191 .209 .311 .231 2.46 6 2 8 0 2 2 106
Domingo Cedeno PHI .149 .152 .211 .258 1.32 2 5 5 1 0 1 71
Carlos Garcia SDP .142 .182 .250 .182 1.08 0 1 0 0 0 0 12
Rich Butler TAM .138 .150 .227 .200 1.06 1 2 0 0 0 0 22
Eddie Zosky MIL .126 .143 .250 .143 .85 0 1 0 0 0 0 8
Sandy Martinez CHC .125 .167 .167 .267 .88 1 1 1 1 0 0 30
Charlie O'Brien ANA-.091 .097 .136 .145 -.36 -1 3 4 1 0 0 66
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tim Crabtree TEX 5 1 3.46 3.60 4.34 65.0 .228 .277 .326 .392 4 7.5
Juan Guzman CIN 6 3 3.03 3.84 3.92 77.3 .232 .241 .294 .400 10 7.0
Omar Daal ARZ 16 9 3.65 3.86 3.86 214.7 .235 .235 .309 .370 21 6.2
Mike Timlin BAL 3 9 3.57 4.29 3.98 63.0 .237 .221 .305 .386 9 7.1
David Cone NYY 12 9 3.44 3.91 4.14 193.3 .238 .229 .324 .369 21 8.2
Dan Plesac ARZ 2 1 3.32 3.74 4.80 21.7 .244 .263 .327 .431 3 11.2
Al Leiter NYM 13 12 4.23 4.52 4.55 213.0 .254 .256 .338 .388 19 6.8
Tod Stottlemyre ARZ 6 3 4.09 4.53 5.05 101.3 .255 .268 .345 .424 12 6.6
Juan Guzman BAL 5 9 4.18 4.62 5.36 122.7 .257 .261 .354 .434 18 7.0
Robert Person PHI 10 5 4.27 4.73 5.14 137.0 .257 .250 .341 .438 23 8.3
Roger Clemens NYY 14 10 4.60 4.84 4.82 187.7 .257 .256 .345 .400 20 7.8
Woody Williams SDP 12 12 4.41 4.58 4.96 208.3 .261 .264 .327 .447 33 5.9
Tom Davey SEA 1 0 4.71 5.57 5.29 21.0 .263 .268 .400 .339 0 7.3
Steve Sinclair SEA 0 1 3.95 5.27 5.96 13.7 .265 .278 .400 .401 1 9.9
Carlos Almanzar SDP 0 0 7.47 7.71 6.68 37.3 .308 .311 .383 .500 6 7.2
Paul Spoljaric PHI 0 3 15.09 19.06 10.56 11.3 .395 .416 .490 .577 1 7.9
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Karsay CLE 10 2 2.97 3.32 3.83 78.7 .220 .240 .314 .359 6 7.8
Billy Taylor OAK 1 5 3.98 4.81 4.76 43.0 .250 .281 .342 .403 3 8.0
John Frascatore ARZ 1 4 4.09 4.36 4.82 33.0 .252 .248 .319 .445 6 4.1
David Weathers MIL 7 4 4.65 4.74 5.48 93.0 .262 .278 .349 .457 14 7.2
Jose Silva PIT 2 8 5.73 6.47 5.18 97.3 .273 .280 .351 .426 10 7.1
Jose Mesa SEA 3 6 4.98 5.50 6.79 68.7 .278 .300 .395 .486 11 5.5
Doug Linton BAL 1 4 5.95 6.25 6.58 59.0 .285 .290 .363 .528 14 4.9
Tom Candiotti OAK 3 5 6.35 7.31 6.27 56.7 .289 .293 .362 .501 11 4.8
Willie Blair DET 3 11 6.85 7.19 6.60 134.0 .289 .306 .362 .531 29 5.5
John Hudek ATL 0 1 6.48 7.56 6.46 16.7 .299 .306 .410 .429 1 9.7
Billy Taylor NYM 0 1 8.10 8.10 8.25 13.3 .323 .345 .433 .532 2 9.5
Tom Candiotti CLE 1 1 11.05 11.05 7.23 14.7 .323 .312 .392 .529 3 6.8
Mike Johnson MON 0 0 8.64 8.64 9.12 8.3 .327 .336 .444 .579 2 6.5
John Hudek CIN 0 1 27.00 27.00 34.37 1.0 .538 .584 .7111.139 1 .0
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1999 American League Leaders
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Shawn Green was the only Jay on the '99 EqA leaderboard:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 365 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Manny Ramirez CLE .338 .333 .441 .663 10.02 118 131 165 44 2 4 639
Derek Jeter NYY .328 .349 .438 .552 8.60 130 134 102 24 19 8 736
Edgar Martinez SEA .328 .337 .447 .554 8.88 105 86 86 24 7 2 608
Bernie Williams NYY .321 .342 .435 .536 8.17 119 116 115 25 9 10 697
Rafael Palmeiro TEX .321 .324 .420 .630 9.05 115 96 148 47 2 4 674
Nom Garciaparra BOS .320 .357 .418 .603 8.86 101 103 104 27 14 3 595
Jason Giambi OAK .318 .315 .422 .553 8.22 114 115 123 33 1 1 695
John Jaha OAK .314 .276 .414 .556 8.01 93 93 111 35 2 0 570
Roberto Alomar CLE .313 .323 .421 .533 8.31 108 138 120 24 37 6 681
Harold Baines BAL .313 .322 .395 .583 7.83 66 57 81 24 1 2 390
Jim Thome CLE .311 .277 .426 .540 8.12 97 101 108 33 0 0 629
Albert Belle BAL .309 .297 .399 .541 7.58 116 108 117 37 17 3 721
Shawn Green TOR .308 .309 .384 .588 7.74 115 134 123 42 20 7 696
Ken GriffeyJr SEA .307 .285 .384 .576 7.58 117 123 134 48 24 7 706
The Jays' 3-year Cy Young streak ended in '99:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 133.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pedro Martinez BOS 23 4 2.07 2.36 2.20 213.3 .182 .208 .251 .295 9 13.2
Tim Hudson OAK 11 2 3.23 3.70 3.84 136.3 .228 .237 .324 .342 8 8.7
Mike Mussina BAL 18 7 3.50 3.90 4.01 203.3 .234 .263 .309 .387 16 7.6
Bartolo Colon CLE 18 5 3.95 4.26 4.11 205.0 .235 .240 .312 .388 24 7.1
Brad Radke MIN 12 14 3.75 3.99 4.61 218.7 .237 .277 .312 .438 28 5.0
David Cone NYY 12 9 3.44 3.91 4.14 193.3 .238 .229 .324 .369 21 8.2
Jose Rosado KAN 10 14 3.85 4.46 4.25 208.0 .239 .249 .316 .398 24 6.1
Jamie Moyer SEA 14 8 3.87 4.26 4.20 228.0 .240 .265 .309 .406 23 5.4
Eric Milton MIN 7 11 4.58 4.94 4.23 200.3 .243 .245 .306 .411 28 7.1
Orlan Hernandez NYY 17 9 4.12 4.53 4.06 214.3 .245 .234 .315 .378 24 6.6
Pat Rapp BOS 6 7 4.12 4.80 4.77 146.3 .245 .260 .348 .392 13 5.5
Dave Burba CLE 15 9 4.25 4.62 4.77 220.0 .246 .251 .334 .415 30 7.1
Freddy Garcia SEA 17 8 4.07 4.29 4.78 201.3 .247 .263 .346 .395 18 7.6
Chuck Finley ANA 12 11 4.43 4.94 4.39 213.3 .249 .244 .329 .387 23 8.4
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mariano Rivera NYY 4 3 1.83 1.96 1.74 69.0 .175 .179 .245 .249 2 6.8
Jeff Zimmerman TEX 9 3 2.36 2.46 1.99 87.7 .181 .166 .230 .292 9 6.9
Keith Foulke CHW 3 3 2.22 2.39 2.41 105.3 .193 .193 .242 .325 11 10.5
Derek Lowe BOS 6 3 2.63 2.88 2.64 109.3 .197 .212 .266 .316 7 6.6
Doug Brocail DET 4 4 2.52 2.52 2.87 82.0 .199 .204 .275 .323 7 8.6
Rober Hernandez TAM 2 3 3.07 3.31 3.75 73.3 .220 .245 .334 .319 1 8.5
Steve Karsay CLE 10 2 2.97 3.32 3.83 78.7 .220 .240 .314 .359 6 7.8
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Theory Stuff, 1999
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The Jays' Pythagorean record was just 4th-best in the AL East, suggesting
the division would continue to be tough:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) NYY 96-66 .594 | ( 1) TEX 7
( 2) CLE 93-69 .573 | ( 2) CLE 4
( 3) BOS 92-70 .569 | ( 3) CHW 3
( 4) TEX 88-74 .544 | ( 4) OAK 2
( 5) OAK 85-77 .525 | ( 5) SEA 2
( 6) BAL 84-78 .520 | ( 6) BOS 2
( 7) TOR 83-79 .510 | ( 7) NYY 2
( 8) SEA 77-85 .476 | ( 8) TOR 1
( 9) KAN 75-86 .467 | ( 9) DET 1
(10) CHW 72-89 .448 | (10) TAM 0
(11) ANA 70-92 .432 | (11) ANA 0
(12) DET 68-93 .425 | (12) MIN -2
(13) TAM 69-93 .424 | (13) BAL -6
(14) MIN 65-95 .406 | (14) KAN -11
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National League
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Colorado 5.71 | ( 1) Atlanta 4.04 | ( 1) Atlanta 103-59 .636
( 2) Arizona 5.57 | ( 2) Arizona 4.15 | ( 2) Arizona 100-62 .617
( 3)SanFrancisco 5.39 | ( 3) Houston 4.16 | ( 3) Houston 97-65 .599
( 4) Cincinnati 5.32 | ( 4) Cincinnati 4.38 | ( 4) NYMets 97-66 .595
( 5) NYMets 5.27 | ( 5) NYMets 4.39 | ( 5) Cincinnati 96-67 .589
( 6)Philadelphia 5.26 | ( 6) Los Angeles 4.87 | ( 6)SanFrancisco 86-76 .531
( 7) Atlanta 5.14 | ( 7) Pittsburgh 4.91 | ( 7) Pittsburgh 78-83 .484
( 8) Milwaukee 5.08 | ( 8) San Diego 4.95 | ( 8) Los Angeles 77-85 .475
( 9) Houston 5.08 | ( 9)SanFrancisco 5.14 | ( 8)Philadelphia 77-85 .475
(10) St. Louis 5.04 | (10) St. Louis 5.22 | (10) St. Louis 75-86 .466
(11) Los Angeles 4.91 | (11)Philadelphia 5.29 | (11) Milwaukee 74-87 .460
(12) Pittsburgh 4.87 | (12) Florida 5.34 | (12) San Diego 74-88 .457
(13) Cubs 4.70 | (13) Montreal 5.35 | (13) Colorado 72-90 .444
(14) Montreal 4.51 | (14) Milwaukee 5.53 | (14) Montreal 68-94 .420
(15) San Diego 4.50 | (15) Cubs 5.79 | (15) Cubs 67-95 .414
(16) Florida 4.33 | (16) Colorado 6.47 | (16) Florida 64-98 .395
Avg 5.04 Avg 4.99 1305-1286
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SFG ARZ NYM HOU CIN ATL PHI LAD STL MIL PIT SDP FLA CHC COL MON
.274 .272 .269 .266 .266 .265 .264 .264 .261 .260 .255 .255 .252 .249 .249 .248
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL ARZ CIN HOU NYM PIT COL LAD SDP PHI STL MON SFG MIL CHC FLA
.241 .241 .246 .246 .250 .256 .262 .263 .264 .265 .265 .265 .269 .269 .270 .274
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16
COL CHC PIT MON MIL PHI CIN ARZ STL ATL NYM HOU LAD SDP SFG FLA
27.0 4.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 .5 -.5 -1.0 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -5.5 -6.0 -6.5
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) ARZ 102-60 .632 | ( 1) ATL 5
( 2) ATL 98-64 .608 | ( 2) NYM 2
( 3) HOU 96-66 .590 | ( 3) HOU 1
( 4) CIN 96-67 .589 | ( 4) SFG 1
( 5) NYM 95-68 .583 | ( 5) CHC 1
( 6) SFG 85-77 .522 | ( 6) COL 0
( 7) LAD 82-80 .503 | ( 7) SDP 0
( 8) PHI 81-81 .497 | ( 8) CIN 0
( 9) PIT 80-81 .496 | ( 9) MON 0
(10) STL 78-83 .484 | (10) MIL 0
(11) MIL 74-87 .462 | (11) FLA -2
(12) SDP 74-88 .457 | (12) PIT -2
(13) COL 72-90 .442 | (13) ARZ -2
(14) MON 68-94 .422 | (14) STL -3
(15) CHC 66-96 .406 | (15) PHI -4
(16) FLA 66-96 .405 | (16) LAD -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 365 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Chipper Jones ATL .338 .319 .441 .633 9.79 131 116 110 45 25 3 701
Mark McGwire STL .336 .278 .424 .697 9.79 125 118 147 65 0 0 661
Jeff Bagwell HOU .335 .304 .453 .591 9.42 133 143 126 42 30 11 728
Larry Walker COL .321 .379 .458 .710 11.26 82 108 115 37 11 4 513
Barry Bonds SFG .319 .262 .389 .617 8.21 77 91 83 34 15 2 434
Brian_s Giles PIT .319 .315 .418 .614 8.85 105 109 115 39 6 2 627
Bob Abreu PHI .319 .335 .446 .549 8.76 108 118 93 20 27 9 662
Carl Everett HOU .314 .325 .398 .571 8.00 90 86 108 25 27 7 533
Ellis Burks SFG .309 .282 .393 .569 7.57 77 73 96 31 7 5 468
Gary Sheffield LAD .307 .301 .407 .523 7.49 104 103 101 34 11 5 663
Fernando Tatis STL .305 .298 .404 .553 7.69 101 104 107 34 21 9 639
Luis Gonzalez ARZ .304 .336 .403 .549 7.65 107 112 111 26 9 5 692
Jeromy Burnitz MIL .303 .270 .402 .561 7.75 89 87 103 33 7 3 580
John Olerud NYM .301 .298 .427 .463 7.28 103 107 96 19 3 0 723
Dave Nilsson MIL .301 .309 .400 .554 7.61 61 56 62 21 1 2 402
Vladim Guerrero MON .301 .316 .378 .600 7.65 107 102 131 42 14 7 674
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 133.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Randy Johnson ARZ 17 9 2.48 2.85 3.06 271.7 .210 .211 .270 .351 30 12.1
Kevin Millwood ATL 18 7 2.68 3.16 2.85 228.0 .213 .205 .262 .341 24 8.1
Kevin Brown LAD 18 9 3.00 3.53 3.06 252.3 .224 .226 .277 .343 19 7.9
John Smoltz ATL 11 8 3.19 3.38 3.34 186.3 .224 .240 .285 .360 14 7.5
Mike Hampton HOU 22 4 2.90 3.24 3.55 239.0 .226 .232 .314 .331 12 6.7
Curt Schilling PHI 15 6 3.54 3.69 3.83 180.3 .232 .236 .288 .401 25 7.6
Omar Daal ARZ 16 9 3.65 3.86 3.86 214.7 .235 .235 .309 .370 21 6.2
Ron Villone CIN 9 7 4.23 4.42 3.58 142.7 .238 .219 .321 .320 8 6.1
Todd Ritchie PIT 15 9 3.49 4.12 4.20 172.7 .238 .256 .316 .394 17 5.6
Pete Harnisch CIN 16 10 3.68 3.90 4.24 198.3 .239 .252 .308 .410 25 5.4
Alex Fernandez FLA 7 8 3.38 3.83 3.83 141.0 .239 .251 .309 .370 10 5.8
Jose Lima HOU 21 10 3.58 3.95 4.26 246.3 .244 .267 .301 .424 30 6.8
Pedro Astacio COL 17 11 5.04 5.43 5.49 232.0 .245 .281 .342 .469 38 8.1
Kris Benson PIT 11 14 4.07 4.81 4.19 196.7 .246 .247 .327 .372 16 6.4
Shane Reynolds HOU 16 14 3.85 4.20 4.22 231.7 .247 .275 .304 .417 23 7.7
Greg Maddux ATL 19 9 3.57 4.23 4.58 219.3 .248 .292 .323 .420 16 5.6
Top 8 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Billy Wagner HOU 4 1 1.57 1.69 1.32 74.7 .164 .141 .217 .234 5 14.9
Armando Benitez NYM 4 3 1.85 1.96 2.02 78.0 .183 .152 .267 .235 4 14.8
Scot Williamson CIN 12 7 2.41 2.80 2.46 93.3 .200 .169 .269 .282 8 10.3
Trevor Hoffman SDP 2 3 2.14 3.07 2.33 67.3 .204 .200 .247 .311 5 9.8
John Rocker ATL 4 5 2.49 2.99 2.85 72.3 .210 .186 .292 .289 5 12.9
Scott Sauerbeck PIT 4 1 2.00 2.53 3.96 67.7 .215 .216 .330 .340 6 7.3
Mike Remlinger ATL 10 1 2.37 2.58 3.58 83.7 .216 .217 .300 .356 9 8.7
Greg Swindell ARZ 4 0 2.51 2.64 3.68 64.7 .217 .227 .292 .379 8 7.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .992 in 1999
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj -- this report's ERP columns are actually ERPDisplay
Age: as of July 1, 1999
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 882 runs, allowed 862 runs,
and pitched 1439.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.29 in 1999)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.29 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1999 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1999, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.29
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (AB+BB+HBP+SF)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.992*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.29 in 1999),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1999 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 1999
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .063*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 1999
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .47*SB in 1999
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .989 in 1999
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.02 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1999 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1999, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.02
Pitching Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.989*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = National League average runs per 9 IP (5.02 in 1999),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1999 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 1999
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .075*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 1999
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .42*SB in 1999
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/
and is unofficial.
Games by position derived from data on the Toronto Blue Jays web site
http://www.bluejays.ca/stats/majors/field.cgi and the USA Today web site
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/sba/sba99gp.htm
Park factors derived from the 1999 park factors at http://www.stathead.com
and the 1996-1998 runs per game data in STATS Major League Handbook 1999.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1999 Oct 18
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.