"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesHow would the 1998 Blue Jay minor leaguers have performed in the major leagues?
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
Second-base prospect Brent Abernathy hit .328 in Dunedin in '98. Would he have outhit Craig Grebeck if he'd been given a chance with the Jays?
Bill James' landmark study in 1985 showed that, if interpreted properly, minor league statistics for AAA batters can tell you as much about the player as major league statistics do. Today, James runs "Major League Equivalencies" (MLEs) for AAA and AA batters in the annual STATS Minor League Handbook.
Below, I've used a less-detailed technique than James' to estimate how every Jays minor leaguer would have performed in the majors in '98. There isn't any research to back up the exact approach I'm using, but the results seem similar to what James' gets for AAA and AA batters most of the time. I'm not aware of any research that says you can extend the technique to pitchers or extend it to batters below AA-level, which means we can't be very confident about the results for Brent Abernathy, but it's still fun to see what the estimates are.
For ease of understanding, the performance measure used is EqA, which stands for "Equivalent Average", and was invented by Clay Davenport, who now runs EqAs for minor and major league batters in the annual Baseball Prospectus. EqA is simple to understand:
i.e. EqA is on the same scale as batting average. But EqA is based not just on hits and at bats, but also on power, walks and base stealing. It's also adjusted for park factor and the league average offense level so that .260 in Colorado means the same as .260 in Toronto.
To produce EqA for minor leaguers, two more important adjustments are made:
The exact formulas are given in the glossary. Note that this is the first time I've applied age adjustments; the approach is based roughly on a post by Clay Davenport to news:rec.sport.baseball Aug 9/98 (for more info, see the glossary).
The other stats listed are the original ones. Tom Evans had a .300 Batting Average in Syracuse, so I list his BA as .300. I don't try to figure out what his batting average would have been for the Jays (Bill James MLE's do, and he says Evans would have hit .275 if you must know). The only number I show that has any adjustments to it is EqA.
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Syracuse SkyChiefs 80-62 (Final Unofficial) -- AAA
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Prospect Age: 24, Competitive Adjustment: 1.20, Park Factor: 1.00
1998 League Averages: RA=5.16, R/ERP=1.00, R/ER=1.13
Young Tom Evans looks like he'll have an excellent career once he gets over his
injury problems. Lennon and Kelly both hit better in Syracuse (higher R27) but
their EqA's are lower because it's assumed they are benefiting from an
"experience advantage" which wouldn't hold up in the majors:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Tom Evans 23 R 3B .273 .300 .388 .498 6.79 75 57 55 15 11 7 459
Kevin Witt 22 L 1B .259 .273 .354 .481 5.97 77 71 67 23 3 3 520
Pat Lennon 30 R OF .257 .290 .408 .543 7.91 96 87 95 27 12 4 529
X-Pat Kelly 30 R 2B .249 .282 .376 .553 7.35 61 58 39 17 18 6 338
Ben Candelaria 23 L OF .229 .247 .312 .398 4.35 32 28 32 7 2 0 279
Tim Costo 29 R 1B .228 .296 .344 .471 5.62 56 45 55 14 1 2 395
Jose Herrera 25 L OF .227 .273 .318 .419 4.66 64 72 40 12 27 12 510
Alex Delgado 27 R C .198 .234 .304 .346 3.62 30 22 28 6 2 0 316
Tomas Perez 24 S SS .196 .252 .284 .332 2.96 35 40 37 3 4 7 422
The Jays wasted two of Jose Cruz' better months in Syracuse. I think Ryan
Freel is on the 40-man roster:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Jose Cruz 24 S OF .298 .298 .425 .560 8.43 33 29 23 7 8 4 174
Ryan Freel 22 R OF .239 .229 .377 .314 4.89 18 19 12 2 9 4 151
X-Mar Dalesandro 30 R 3B .231 .268 .335 .518 6.07 28 25 30 10 1 0 182
X-Julio Mosquera 26 R C .192 .213 .279 .340 3.23 9 10 4 2 1 0 104
X-Anthon Sanders 24 R OF .192 .191 .270 .311 2.82 19 23 19 4 5 2 233
Santiago Henry 25 R 2B .167 .194 .236 .310 2.18 15 20 25 5 4 5 229
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Carlos Delgado 26 L 1B .490 .571 .6671.286 33.49 4 4 6 1 0 0 9
X-Kevin Brown 25 R C .435 .625 .625 .875 23.79 3 2 0 0 0 0 8
Rob Mummau 26 R 3B .288 .429 .429 .571 8.88 1 0 2 0 0 0 7
X-Adam Melhuse 26 S C .255 .289 .391 .447 6.53 7 4 7 1 0 0 46
Alan Probst 27 R C .241 .333 .371 .455 5.95 5 2 4 1 0 0 35
X-Tony Phillips 39 S OF .241 .250 .489 .375 8.09 8 7 4 1 2 1 47
X-Luis Lopez 24 R 3B .204 .220 .313 .293 3.29 4 6 3 1 0 0 48
Alonzo Powell 33 R OF .202 .229 .339 .438 5.00 7 8 9 3 0 1 56
Christo Woodward 22 R SS .193 .200 .261 .341 2.87 8 9 6 2 1 1 92
Brian Grebeck 30 R 2B .179 .333 .333 .333 3.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
X-Juan Bell 30 S SS .174 .211 .250 .368 2.99 3 4 1 0 0 0 40
X-Benit Santiago 33 R C .155 .227 .261 .318 2.58 2 0 2 0 0 0 23
X-Luis Rodriguez 24 R C -.106 .133 .125 .133 -.64 0 1 2 0 0 0 16
SYRACUSE .245 .263 .339 .435 5.18 699 653 607164 111 59 5271
Roy Halladay looks like he would have been an average pitcher in the majors in
'98 (an opponents EqA of .260 would be average), though again, I don't know of
a study evaluating the usefulness of adjusted minor league pitching stats:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Shannon Withem 25 R 17 5 3.27 3.42 3.86 189.7 .253 .250 .314 .370 14 5.4
Roy Halladay 21 R 9 5 3.79 4.02 4.43 116.3 .259 .246 .337 .380 11 5.5
Beiker Graterol 23 R 9 2 4.59 5.16 5.07 96.0 .279 .274 .349 .419 10 5.8
Mark Sievert 25 R 7 6 4.13 4.50 4.99 96.0 .281 .259 .367 .389 8 3.5
Mike Romano 26 R 8 6 4.14 5.06 5.48 117.3 .296 .287 .364 .440 13 5.3
Yennaco and Munro were picked up in the Mike Stanley trade:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Kelvim Escobar 22 R 2 2 3.77 3.92 4.06 59.7 .254 .229 .313 .375 7 9.7
X-Dave Stieb 40 R 5 4 2.73 3.14 2.38 66.0 .264 .196 .254 .308 5 6.4
2-Jay Yennaco 22 R 0 3 5.35 6.28 6.62 38.7 .305 .346 .393 .506 4 6.3
2-Peter Munro 23 R 2 5 7.46 8.46 6.90 44.7 .328 .312 .393 .497 7 8.5
Billy Koch 23 R 0 1 14.29 14.29 9.50 5.7 .395 .360 .452 .564 1 14.3
Carlos Almanzar, traded to San Diego, pitched well in Syracuse. So did lefties
Steve Sinclair and Ben VanRyn. Sinclair pitched well in previous years also,
and had a good strikeout ratio:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Steve Sinclair 26 L 3 1 2.17 2.72 3.00 49.7 .231 .209 .300 .295 2 8.2
X-Carlo Almanzar 24 R 3 6 2.31 3.73 3.88 50.7 .243 .229 .290 .389 7 9.4
Ben VanRyn 26 L 2 1 3.51 3.51 3.26 41.0 .251 .231 .288 .348 3 6.6
Paul Fletcher 31 R 3 4 2.70 3.56 3.56 73.3 .275 .236 .306 .337 4 6.5
D.J. Harris 27 R 1 4 3.98 4.43 5.36 40.7 .294 .270 .363 .452 6 5.5
Andujar pitched poorly in Calgary (White Sox) after the Jays let him go to
make room for Dave Stieb. Robert Person pitched well in Syracuse:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Luis Andujar 25 R 3 2 2.12 2.38 2.97 34.0 .223 .195 .258 .362 5 6.4
X-Robert Person 28 R 3 3 2.29 2.59 3.42 59.0 .246 .184 .287 .353 9 8.4
Mark Lukasiewicz 25 L 2 2 3.40 3.40 4.48 47.7 .262 .218 .323 .402 8 5.7
1-Dane Johnson 35 R 1 0 3.18 3.18 4.99 5.7 .311 .278 .435 .351 0 6.4
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Knoxville Smokies 71-69 (Final Unofficial) -- AA
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Prospect Age: 23, Competitive Adjustment: 1.44, Park Factor: 1.10
1998 League Averages: RA=5.44, R/ERP=1.05, R/ER=1.17
Could Adam Melhuse be the next Ernie Whitt? Melhuse had a career year at age
26 (.259 at Knoxville, .255 in Syracuse earlier in the year):
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Adam Melhuse 26 S C .259 .300 .458 .579 9.39 62 56 43 15 4 4 310
Luis Lopez 24 R 1B .234 .313 .389 .478 6.71 80 70 85 15 0 2 519
Jonathan Rivers 23 R OF .232 .268 .380 .447 5.99 54 51 49 9 20 13 358
Andy Thompson 23 R OF .228 .285 .357 .449 5.73 76 74 88 14 8 3 543
X-Alan Probst 27 R C .208 .261 .349 .460 5.68 42 53 44 10 2 1 301
Fausto Solano 24 R SS .206 .240 .324 .434 4.85 42 49 38 10 4 4 327
Ryan Jones 23 R 1B .204 .250 .328 .382 4.37 52 50 51 11 4 4 460
Michael Peeples 21 R 2B .196 .251 .314 .359 3.95 47 58 42 7 20 10 436
X-Rya Stromsborg 23 R OF .191 .237 .304 .357 3.69 31 44 28 7 7 5 312
Casey Blake was about .256 for the year (.280 in Knoxville, but .244 in more
playing time in Dunedin). Peter Tucci had a decent .243 EqA in Knoxville --
not .222 as I wrote after his trade to San Diego -- at that time, I was using
Sept 6 stats which I didn't realize omitted Knoxville's last game, and Tucci
hit 2 HR's in that last game:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Casey Blake 24 R 3B .280 .372 .442 .628 10.46 43 41 38 7 10 0 199
X-Ben Candelaria 23 L OF .257 .333 .371 .615 7.71 32 33 31 10 0 3 167
Pete Tucci 22 R OF .243 .291 .354 .546 6.74 26 25 36 7 3 2 158
X-Ryan Freel 22 R OF .226 .286 .366 .425 5.63 41 47 36 4 18 9 290
Brent Bowers 27 L OF .210 .280 .374 .402 5.81 17 19 12 2 9 1 123
X-Rob Mummau 26 R 3B .205 .291 .344 .418 5.23 20 28 28 3 4 1 157
X-Will Skett 24 R OF .193 .250 .317 .394 4.12 29 33 33 3 4 8 262
X-Chris Woodward 22 R SS .189 .245 .319 .328 3.58 27 36 27 3 3 5 285
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Luis Rodriguez 24 R C .315 .412 .583 .529 14.08 5 6 1 0 1 0 24
X-Anthon Sanders 24 R OF .311 .400 .444 .960 13.56 8 9 9 4 0 1 27
Reed Secrist 28 L C .192 .240 .296 .480 4.89 7 9 8 2 0 0 54
Julio Mosquera 26 R C .177 .279 .333 .302 3.61 4 4 8 0 0 0 48
KNOXVILLE .226 .276 .357 .444 5.59 748 795 735143 121 76 5360
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jason Stevenson 23 R 6 10 5.43 5.90 5.98 134.3 .301 .298 .364 .458 16 6.6
Chris McBride 24 R 10 5 4.40 5.91 5.52 155.3 .303 .297 .337 .454 18 5.2
Tyson Hartshorn 23 R 7 6 5.18 6.19 6.40 107.7 .307 .306 .371 .482 15 4.6
X-Beike Graterol 24 R 5 6 5.24 6.18 5.77 67.0 .311 .298 .360 .462 8 7.0
X-Joe Young 23 R 2 7 9.68 11.48 8.48 40.0 .369 .317 .427 .534 8 7.0
Isabel Giron might be with the big club very soon:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Isabel Giron 20 R 1 1 3.82 3.82 3.98 35.3 .256 .221 .290 .384 5 8.9
X-Gary Glover 21 R 0 5 6.75 8.68 6.14 37.3 .325 .277 .396 .387 2 3.4
X-Clint Lawrence 21 L 1 2 6.84 8.64 7.85 25.0 .340 .287 .412 .464 4 5.8
1-Chad Brown 26 L 0 2 14.85 14.85 13.29 13.3 .460 .426 .524 .619 2 6.8
RELIEVERS
Mike Halperin was traded for Carlos Garcia et al a year ago, but the Jays got
him back this year in the Patzke trade. Mike Gordon's claim to fame is that
the Jays got him for David Cone in '95:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
2-Mike Halperin 24 L 5 1 2.92 2.92 3.87 49.3 .251 .246 .343 .310 0 6.4
Tom Davey 24 R 5 3 3.87 4.11 4.61 76.7 .276 .243 .362 .326 2 9.2
Brian Smith 25 R 4 2 4.06 4.94 4.78 71.0 .291 .264 .328 .403 7 6.3
Doug Meiners 24 R 7 6 4.73 5.55 5.75 110.3 .304 .301 .369 .423 7 4.7
Mike Gordon 25 R 8 2 5.02 6.53 5.88 113.0 .320 .275 .366 .427 13 7.6
Scott Rivette was picked up in the Ed Sprague trade, but didn't pitch much:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Ma Lukasiewicz 25 L 0 0 1.93 1.93 1.16 9.3 .187 .188 .212 .237 0 15.4
X-Jeremy Lee 23 R 0 1 3.38 3.38 3.82 16.0 .248 .250 .286 .359 1 3.9
2-Scott Rivette 24 R 0 1 3.86 3.86 3.58 9.3 .261 .206 .326 .260 0 3.9
Sean McClellan 25 R 3 5 3.62 4.17 3.59 49.7 .267 .180 .313 .307 5 8.0
X-D.J. Harris 27 R 4 2 2.77 3.14 4.97 48.7 .282 .294 .376 .387 1 5.7
2-Roger Doman 25 R 3 1 4.60 4.60 4.31 29.3 .285 .248 .322 .391 3 4.3
John Bale 24 L 0 0 6.75 6.75 7.42 1.3 .337 .200 .200 .800 1 .0
X-Jay Veniard 23 L 0 1 9.58 10.45 7.75 10.3 .358 .263 .440 .476 2 6.1
X-Alan Probst 27 R 0 0 27.00 27.00 21.56 1.0 .582 .571 .625 .722 0 .0
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Dunedin Blue Jays 82-58 (Final Unofficial) -- A+
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Prospect Age: 22, Competitive Adjustment: 1.73, Park Factor: 1.05
1998 League Averages: RA=5.07, R/ERP=1.08, R/ER=1.23
Tucci was about .255 for the year including his Knoxville numbers, but
reportedly is a poor defensive outfielder. Likewise no one seems to think
Joe Lawrence could ever play major league shortstop, which is too bad, since
he probably is a better hitter than Alex Gonzalez. Brent Abernathy had just
a .228 EqA, behind Craig Grebeck's .238:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Pete Tucci 22 R OF .260 .329 .385 .624 8.30 78 72 76 23 8 5 392
Joe Lawrence 21 R SS .253 .308 .441 .476 7.71 97 102 44 11 15 12 564
X-Casey Blake 24 R 3B .244 .350 .409 .547 8.03 70 62 65 11 9 6 386
Tim Giles 22 L 1B .235 .303 .355 .518 6.43 63 53 65 18 3 2 397
Brent Abernathy 20 R 2B .228 .328 .381 .425 5.98 78 85 65 3 35 13 536
Craig Stone 22 R 1B .209 .267 .309 .461 4.80 49 44 53 12 3 6 382
Damon Johnson 22 R OF .197 .278 .320 .376 4.15 40 48 32 4 16 9 362
Selwyn Langaigne 22 L OF .171 .261 .316 .276 2.92 41 52 38 0 21 17 516
Jeff Maloney 21 S OF .159 .183 .245 .313 2.44 23 43 32 10 6 4 327
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Will Skett 24 R OF .240 .325 .408 .520 7.72 25 25 25 4 6 2 142
Sharnol Adriana 27 R 3B .217 .286 .381 .498 6.88 44 45 44 8 18 6 265
X-Luis Rodriguez 24 R C .203 .291 .325 .429 5.11 28 34 41 4 11 2 212
Paul Chiaffredo 22 R C .178 .234 .286 .341 3.19 28 34 41 4 1 3 315
Ryan Stromsborg 23 R OF .176 .250 .287 .352 3.40 11 12 12 2 1 0 115
Felipe Lopez had just 4 games in Dunedin so don't believe the .285 EqA. Jeff
Patzke, who should have got a chance with the Jays, was traded to the Pirates
and had a good season in Nashville. Brian Loyd was picked up in the Randy
Myers trade:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Felipe Lopez 18 S SS .285 .385 .385 .769 10.44 3 3 1 1 0 0 13
X-Carlos Delgado 26 L 1B .256 .313 .389 .750 9.92 4 4 7 2 0 0 18
X-Santiago Henry 25 R 2B .233 .389 .411 .537 7.54 10 9 7 1 2 2 56
Dave Morgan 26 R C .208 .229 .341 .500 5.91 13 9 15 5 0 1 85
X-Jeff Patzke 24 S 2B .186 .290 .380 .290 4.10 7 10 4 0 0 1 71
Michae Rodriguez 23 R OF .165 .216 .310 .270 2.89 3 4 2 0 0 0 42
Brian Loyd 24 R C .157 .204 .281 .265 2.67 4 8 5 1 1 0 57
X-Jonatha Rivers 23 R OF .151 .200 .238 .300 2.34 2 0 4 0 2 1 21
X-Benit Santiago 33 R C .125 .162 .225 .270 2.14 3 4 5 1 3 0 40
X-Symmion Willis 25 R OF -.127 .036 .067 .036 -1.63 -1 1 1 0 1 0 30
DUNEDIN .218 .284 .349 .433 5.33 723 763 684125 162 92 5344
EqA says Billy Koch didn't pitch well enough in Dunedin to impress:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Yan LaChapelle 22 R 11 8 3.99 4.84 4.84 126.3 .312 .240 .328 .395 16 9.0
X-Billy Koch 23 R 14 7 3.75 4.69 4.29 124.7 .313 .252 .319 .364 8 7.8
Gary Glover 21 R 7 6 4.28 5.43 4.94 109.3 .320 .270 .331 .391 8 7.2
Clint Lawrence 21 L 6 3 4.91 5.76 6.57 84.3 .344 .311 .392 .441 6 5.9
Josh Bradford 24 R 4 4 4.97 5.48 5.24 70.7 .345 .274 .359 .386 4 5.9
Hartshorn didn't pitch nearly as well in Knoxville:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Tyso Hartshorn 23 R 8 0 1.29 2.29 2.82 63.0 .245 .224 .280 .295 1 7.7
X-Chad Brown 26 L 1 1 2.30 4.60 2.40 15.7 .289 .224 .262 .283 0 5.7
X-Taylor Smith 19 R 0 0 2.70 2.70 5.80 3.3 .299 .231 .412 .291 0 10.8
X-Erik Hanson 33 R 0 0 2.25 2.25 4.17 4.0 .324 .250 .333 .316 0 11.3
X-John Bale 24 L 4 5 4.64 5.32 4.86 66.0 .337 .267 .331 .391 5 10.6
X-Joe Young 23 R 4 1 4.63 6.85 6.70 44.7 .365 .289 .368 .492 8 8.7
X-Dave Stieb 40 R 2 0 3.00 4.80 5.65 15.0 .384 .283 .338 .449 2 11.4
Sean McClellan also put up a .267 with Knoxville, and had just a 1.66 ERA in
Hagerstown the previous year, so he might be another Sinclair story:
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Sean McClellan 25 R 4 0 2.21 2.21 2.21 57.0 .248 .171 .257 .257 3 11.5
Jim Mann 23 R 0 2 3.04 3.40 2.71 50.3 .270 .172 .267 .278 4 10.5
Ernie Delgado 22 R 7 10 3.64 4.32 4.81 118.7 .305 .259 .350 .357 5 7.4
Trevor Schaffer 24 R 0 1 4.65 6.20 5.20 69.7 .349 .227 .370 .341 5 5.8
X-Tim Adkins 24 L 0 1 5.92 6.66 6.90 24.3 .378 .320 .395 .459 2 6.7
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Kurtiss Bogott 25 L 0 0 .00 .00 -.50 6.3-.102 .100 .143 .126 0 11.4
X-Ma Lukasiewicz 25 L 1 1 .84 1.69 2.08 10.7 .224 .189 .262 .239 0 6.8
X-Billy Hibbard 22 R 0 0 .00 .00 4.89 4.0 .237 .308 .400 .389 0 2.3
X-Dustin Seale 20 L 0 0 .00 3.00 4.22 3.0 .261 .200 .385 .253 0 3.0
X-Brian Smith 25 R 1 0 3.38 3.38 2.59 10.7 .280 .211 .286 .266 0 7.6
Mark Hendrickson 24 L 4 3 2.37 2.92 4.30 49.3 .292 .249 .341 .345 2 6.9
Benny Lowe 24 L 0 0 1.93 4.82 4.50 9.3 .312 .222 .356 .281 0 12.5
Jeremy Lee 23 R 2 0 3.90 4.23 5.15 27.7 .321 .260 .315 .465 5 5.9
X-Brian Bowles 21 R 1 2 3.33 4.33 6.43 27.0 .324 .299 .392 .429 2 5.7
David Bleazard 24 R 1 0 4.26 6.63 5.63 19.0 .356 .270 .379 .378 1 9.5
X-Ken Folkers 23 R 0 3 8.40 9.60 9.00 15.0 .421 .359 .434 .539 2 7.8
X-Keith White 20 R 0 0 10.80 10.80 15.26 3.3 .469 .467 .500 .954 2 .0
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Hagerstown Suns 81-60 (Final Unofficial) -- A
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Prospect Age: 21, Competitive Adjustment: 2.07, Park Factor: 1.04
1998 League Averages: RA=5.06, R/ERP=1.11, R/ER=1.23
Bobby Cripps, picked up in the Otis Nixon trade a year ago, is getting close
to replacement hitting level for a major league catcher. Gord Ash says Mike
Young is a good prospect. Vernon Wells did well for a 19-year-old:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Bobby Cripps 21 L C .218 .265 .337 .525 6.11 74 64 88 29 2 3 475
Mike Young 21 R 2B .212 .282 .354 .456 5.73 84 86 87 16 16 8 591
Vernon Wells 19 R OF .204 .285 .348 .426 5.18 74 86 65 11 13 8 561
Lorenzo Bagley 22 R OF .201 .259 .341 .451 5.43 56 53 75 15 2 1 410
Josh Phelps 21 R C .198 .265 .342 .395 4.85 53 48 44 8 2 0 438
Tony Peters 23 R OF .198 .303 .358 .437 5.51 50 58 35 10 15 7 355
Greg Morrison 22 L 1B .192 .276 .330 .433 4.85 60 59 72 15 4 7 473
Jesse Zepeda 24 S 3B .173 .231 .362 .286 4.10 35 39 29 3 5 2 354
Cesar Izturis 18 S SS .165 .262 .297 .305 3.06 37 56 38 1 20 9 437
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Chris Hayes 24 R 3B .214 .295 .388 .502 6.97 40 41 33 8 6 2 240
X-Juan Nieves 21 R OF .200 .167 .286 .500 4.93 1 0 1 0 0 0 7
X-Mike Rodriguez 23 R OF .192 .303 .359 .402 5.09 18 20 17 1 1 1 145
X-Billy Brown 22 R OF .190 .264 .359 .358 4.78 21 22 19 2 12 5 170
Mike Strange 24 R 3B .184 .226 .390 .301 4.78 27 33 12 1 9 5 236
Luis Morillo 20 L OF .177 .253 .330 .333 3.62 9 13 9 0 1 3 97
Randy Albaral 21 R OF .159 .239 .296 .265 2.80 19 34 19 0 15 3 253
X-Jorge Nunez 20 R 3B .138 .250 .250 .250 1.95 1 0 1 0 1 0 16
HAGERSTOWN .200 .269 .343 .405 4.93 660 712 644120 124 64 5258
Clayton Andrews pitched better than the more acclaimed John Sneed, and Andrews
is younger too. Some tinkering I did to the formulas (see glossary) caused
pitchers at the lower-levels to get higher EqAs than I was posting earlier in
the year, but Andrews still appears to have pitched at major league replacement
level:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Clayton Andrews 20 L 10 7 2.28 3.28 2.50 162.0 .271 .195 .260 .280 7 10.7
John Sneed 22 R 16 2 2.56 3.28 3.32 161.7 .298 .210 .293 .307 9 11.7
X-Isabel Giron 20 R 10 9 2.49 4.06 3.70 126.3 .303 .232 .282 .357 11 9.2
Matt McClellan 21 R 8 7 3.09 4.19 3.75 139.7 .309 .215 .310 .315 8 8.1
X-Joe Casey 19 R 2 7 4.66 6.17 6.13 77.3 .368 .290 .385 .422 6 7.2
Leoncio Estrella was picked up from the Mets in the Tony Phillips trade:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Woody Heath 22 R 11 3 2.97 4.02 3.36 94.0 .311 .230 .288 .322 4 7.9
Joe Young 23 R 3 1 5.31 5.31 5.12 39.0 .371 .253 .331 .393 4 9.7
2-Leonc Estrella 23 R 1 3 4.50 5.70 5.54 30.0 .376 .304 .382 .383 0 8.1
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jaron Seabury 22 R 2 1 1.65 2.30 3.10 54.7 .274 .194 .291 .288 3 7.9
Colin Brackeen 23 L 4 4 2.45 2.95 3.44 55.0 .301 .228 .314 .288 0 10.0
Matt Weimer 23 R 7 6 2.85 3.84 3.85 72.7 .322 .230 .314 .320 3 7.3
Brian Bowles 21 R 2 4 4.52 5.45 5.64 67.7 .356 .292 .352 .409 4 6.4
Tim Huff 23 L 2 0 3.81 4.17 6.19 49.7 .367 .307 .365 .442 4 5.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jarrod Kingrey 21 R 0 1 3.86 7.71 4.72 2.3 .360 .333 .333 .421 0 11.6
X-Anthony Salley 22 L 0 2 4.58 5.49 5.73 39.3 .370 .270 .374 .397 3 6.9
X-Rand Eversgerd 21 R 3 1 8.10 8.49 8.20 23.3 .423 .344 .414 .523 3 6.2
X-David Huggins 22 R 0 2 7.98 9.20 7.11 14.7 .431 .281 .440 .355 0 8.0
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St. Catharines Stompers 38-38 (Final Unofficial) -- A-
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Prospect Age: 20, Competitive Adjustment: 2.49, Park Factor: 1.05
1998 League Averages: RA=5.07, R/ERP=1.16, R/ER=1.26
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Domingo Estevez 20 S 2B .216 .306 .373 .541 6.97 41 40 33 7 12 7 233
Juan Nieves 21 R 1B .188 .274 .336 .457 5.35 32 26 38 7 2 2 232
Brian Barnett 22 R 2B .184 .296 .357 .414 5.34 22 22 16 2 4 1 168
Billy Brown 22 R OF .182 .275 .371 .371 5.18 43 41 34 3 27 12 326
Chad Polk 23 S C .181 .231 .390 .331 5.35 21 25 18 3 8 1 164
Tyler Thompson 22 R OF .179 .252 .368 .370 5.01 36 42 32 4 6 5 296
Ryan Bundy 20 R C .172 .196 .290 .399 3.94 18 20 16 6 2 2 169
Brandon Jackson 22 R SS .163 .263 .340 .310 3.95 19 30 11 1 6 0 191
Joseph Bernhardt 17 R SS .137 .182 .250 .287 2.25 13 18 19 2 0 0 200
Felipe Lopez was the Jays top draft pick in '98 and so far he's hitting better
than expected -- his stats (BA/OBP/SLG) in St. Catharines were a bit better
than those of Vernon Wells a year ago, though Lopez had a lot fewer at bats,
and drew very few walks. Shannon Carter was picked up in the Juan Guzman
trade:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Felipe Lopez 18 S SS .219 .373 .395 .518 7.23 15 14 11 1 4 2 86
Richard Lee 22 R 3B .211 .286 .398 .519 7.50 16 14 17 4 1 0 93
X-Pete Silletti 24 S C .183 .000 .500 .000 5.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Jesus Lebron 20 R OF .183 .254 .321 .413 4.62 17 25 21 4 7 4 140
Angelo Perez 21 R OF .176 .269 .310 .412 4.57 15 11 13 2 3 0 129
Mike Whitlock 21 L 1B .176 .185 .319 .403 4.56 17 21 23 8 0 0 144
Shannon Carter 19 L OF .175 .262 .318 .361 4.10 7 8 7 1 2 0 66
Scott Heying 22 L 2B .159 .261 .333 .313 3.68 12 15 13 0 1 1 129
Jose Umbria 20 R C .147 .237 .308 .258 2.67 8 14 13 0 0 0 107
Travis Hubbel 19 R 3B .120 .125 .263 .188 1.60 1 1 1 0 0 0 19
X-Luis Morillo 20 L OF .120 .200 .200 .200 1.60 0 1 0 0 1 0 5
Auntwan Riggins 22 S 3B .085 .167 .231 .167 .77 0 1 0 0 0 0 13
X-Lawrence Adams 21 R DH -.140 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
ST. CATHARINES .185 .255 .340 .388 4.72 353 389 336 55 86 37 2920
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pasqual Coco 20 R 3 7 3.20 5.73 3.49 81.7 .345 .201 .293 .289 4 9.3
David Huggins 22 R 7 5 4.15 4.89 5.00 84.7 .385 .258 .338 .360 4 7.1
Taylor Smith 19 R 4 5 5.10 7.07 5.84 77.7 .402 .275 .336 .417 8 7.1
Eric Place 23 L 4 5 6.51 7.64 5.87 55.3 .444 .269 .346 .415 6 6.5
Alejandro Hueda 22 R 2 5 6.26 8.21 7.33 41.7 .458 .304 .373 .481 6 5.4
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Je Satterfield 22 R 0 1 10.38 10.38 5.86 4.3 .478 .200 .429 .253 0 12.5
Joe Casey 19 R 1 2 12.27 15.55 11.34 11.0 .542 .353 .477 .499 1 7.4
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Jarrod Kingrey 21 R 0 0 .48 1.67 2.06 37.7 .245 .162 .259 .225 1 13.9
Matthew Gourlay 19 R 5 1 2.48 2.82 3.04 54.3 .297 .174 .278 .276 4 10.3
Michael Stafford 23 L 1 0 1.38 2.42 3.23 26.0 .307 .224 .276 .311 1 4.8
Randy Eversgerd 21 R 4 2 3.12 4.41 4.07 34.7 .352 .254 .275 .380 3 8.8
Dustin Seale 20 L 2 0 4.99 6.35 6.04 39.7 .398 .258 .344 .412 5 9.8
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Edy Severino 22 R 0 0 2.25 2.25 3.44 4.0 .311 .083 .267 .333 1 11.3
Marcos Sandoval 17 R 1 2 6.15 7.02 4.96 41.0 .396 .214 .339 .342 4 8.6
Diegoma Markwell 17 L 3 3 5.54 6.75 6.74 52.0 .413 .289 .394 .391 2 6.9
Frankl Gracesqui 18 L 1 0 6.61 6.61 6.81 16.3 .418 .242 .383 .389 2 10.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medicine Hat Blue Jays 46-28 (Final Unofficial) -- R+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 19, Competitive Adjustment: 2.99, Park Factor: .98
1998 League Averages: RA=6.69, R/ERP=1.18, R/ER=1.26
Doesn't look like anyone in Medicine Hat's lineup is ready to join the Jays
yet:
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jay Gibbons 21 L 1B .217 .397 .457 .700 11.69 79 66 98 19 2 1 339
Jorge Nunez 20 R SS .178 .319 .376 .473 6.79 57 74 52 6 31 2 346
Michael Kremblas 22 R C .177 .293 .438 .440 7.34 38 40 36 4 5 4 235
Orlando Hudson 18 S 2B .176 .293 .366 .475 6.07 41 50 42 8 6 5 273
Ryan Fleming 22 L OF .168 .306 .397 .416 6.43 45 64 41 2 17 3 300
Matt Logan 18 L 1B .165 .266 .363 .399 5.21 26 29 30 3 1 1 201
Justin Davies 21 L OF .156 .269 .408 .297 5.16 22 36 10 0 11 4 179
Fred Smith 20 R OF .155 .252 .347 .376 4.84 32 44 36 5 11 3 262
Auntwan Riggins 22 S 3B .133 .248 .305 .301 3.61 16 30 18 0 16 1 167
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
X-Travis Hubbel 19 R 3B .187 .297 .447 .378 7.04 7 5 5 0 1 0 47
Jermaine Davis 19 R OF .171 .276 .353 .425 5.63 14 15 23 2 2 0 102
Jonny Juarez 20 L OF .151 .296 .333 .380 4.53 18 17 22 1 6 1 150
Henry Ventura 17 R OF .122 .214 .248 .320 2.41 8 13 18 1 0 1 109
Tony Martelli 23 R 2B .117 .192 .338 .212 2.71 5 7 8 0 1 3 65
Juan Santos 20 S C .112 .111 .333 .111 2.12 2 2 1 0 0 0 36
Ryan Zeber 20 R C .103 .205 .273 .231 1.73 2 4 9 0 0 2 44
Alexis Guzman 18 S 3B .087 .179 .242 .179 1.06 3 11 3 0 1 0 91
X-Andy Barrett 18 L OF .084 .071 .278 .071 .96 0 1 0 0 0 0 18
X-Pete Silletti 24 S C -.112 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
MEDICINE HAT .172 .286 .372 .418 5.75 413 508 452 51 111 31 2965
I think Steven Murray is a Canadian drafted in '98:
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pat Lynch 20 R 7 3 2.32 3.32 3.14 89.3 .312 .216 .260 .323 6 7.8
Scott Cassidy 22 R 8 1 2.43 3.43 3.51 81.3 .333 .235 .278 .333 4 9.1
Joseph Orloski 19 R 7 1 3.92 5.58 6.02 59.7 .381 .291 .342 .424 5 6.3
Steven Murray 18 L 4 1 5.71 7.10 7.07 58.3 .416 .317 .348 .502 9 6.3
Mark Curtis 20 L 6 6 5.94 7.31 6.75 72.7 .430 .278 .382 .419 7 6.1
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Orland Espinal 22 R 1 5 8.44 9.45 9.81 26.7 .508 .321 .398 .601 8 10.1
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Robert File 21 R 2 1 1.41 1.97 2.59 32.0 .277 .211 .252 .290 1 7.9
Joshua Stevens 19 R 1 0 2.98 3.61 3.97 42.3 .324 .226 .287 .335 3 8.3
Orlando Woodards 20 R 1 3 3.58 4.83 4.22 50.3 .358 .242 .288 .362 4 10.4
Antonio Caceres 20 R 6 4 3.81 5.64 5.38 59.0 .385 .280 .340 .389 3 4.6
Perfecto Gaud 19 L 0 1 4.91 7.85 6.61 18.3 .413 .247 .398 .312 0 7.4
Chris Mowday was the youngest player in the Jays organization in '98:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
X-Micha Stafford 23 L 1 1 2.89 6.75 6.68 9.3 .430 .325 .341 .479 1 5.8
Adam Huxhold 21 L 0 0 5.40 7.20 7.21 5.0 .440 .200 .304 .526 2 5.4
Reuben St. Amand 18 R 0 0 9.82 13.09 6.87 11.0 .474 .250 .414 .316 0 1.6
Chris Mowday 16 R 1 0 10.13 12.66 9.56 10.7 .498 .267 .484 .337 0 6.8
Johen Montanez 22 R 0 0 7.88 7.88 10.95 8.0 .507 .368 .415 .609 2 11.3
Tyler Renwick 19 R 1 1 21.38 22.50 15.90 8.0 .629 .286 .561 .517 2 7.9
---Playoff Stats---
The sample sizes for the playoff stats are small, but at least it tells you
who was where at the end of the year:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Syracuse SkyChiefs 0- 3 (playoff games thru 9/11/98) -- AAA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 24, Competitive Adjustment: 1.20, Park Factor: 1.00
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Pat Lennon 30 R OF .307 .444 .583 .444 12.42 2 0 0 0 0 0 12
Kevin Witt 22 L 1B .306 .250 .308 .833 9.00 3 2 3 2 0 0 13
Tomas Perez 24 S 2B .245 .300 .364 .400 5.17 1 0 0 0 0 0 11
Alonzo Powell 33 R OF .223 .300 .417 .400 6.36 2 0 0 0 0 0 12
Jose Herrera 25 L OF .211 .308 .308 .385 3.91 1 1 1 0 0 0 13
Ben Candelaria 23 L DH .153 .250 .250 .250 1.60 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Alex Delgado 27 R C .114 .143 .143 .286 .91 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Santiago Henry 25 R 3B -.091 .143 .143 .143 -.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Christo Woodward 22 R SS -.094 .143 .143 .143 -.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Brian Grebeck 30 R 2B .303 .333 .500 .667 12.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Alan Probst 27 R C .199 .333 .333 .333 3.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Tim Costo 29 R 3B -.166 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Ryan Freel 22 R OF -.185 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
SYRACUSE .215 .245 .302 .367 3.74 11 4 4 2 0 0 106
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roy Halladay 21 R 0 1 5.87 5.87 5.31 7.7 .291 .300 .344 .470 1 5.9
Shannon Withem 25 R 0 1 9.00 9.00 7.86 6.0 .356 .346 .400 .543 1 6.0
2-Peter Munro 23 R 0 1 99.99 99.99 99.99 .0 .999 1.00 1.00 1.26 0 .0
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Scott Cassidy 22 R 0 0 .00 .00 -2.66 .3-.163 .000 .000 .000 0 .0
Ben VanRyn 26 L 0 0 .00 .00 1.38 3.7 .132 .182 .250 .230 0 4.9
Billy Koch 23 R 0 0 .00 .00 3.31 1.3 .177 .200 .333 .253 0 6.8
Mike Romano 26 R 0 0 .00 4.50 1.32 2.0 .208 .143 .250 .180 0 9.0
D.J. Harris 27 R 0 0 6.75 6.75 4.96 1.3 .319 .333 .333 .421 0 .0
Paul Fletcher 31 R 0 0 18.00 18.00 10.38 1.0 .488 .400 .500 .505 0 .0
Mark Lukasiewicz 25 L 0 0 27.00 27.00 25.84 .7 .562 .750 .667 .947 0 .0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Knoxville Smokies 0- 3 (playoff games thru 9/11/98) -- AA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 23, Competitive Adjustment: 1.44, Park Factor: 1.10
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ryan Jones 23 R DH .284 .375 .444 .625 9.92 2 1 0 0 0 0 9
Luis Lopez 24 R 1B .220 .222 .462 .222 5.76 2 0 0 0 0 0 13
Michael Peeples 21 R 2B .197 .125 .222 .500 3.98 1 1 1 1 0 0 9
Jonathan Rivers 23 R OF .197 .125 .222 .500 3.98 1 1 1 1 0 0 9
Casey Blake 24 R 3B .150 .222 .300 .222 2.20 1 0 0 0 0 0 10
Andy Thompson 23 R OF .137 .091 .167 .364 1.60 1 1 1 1 0 1 12
Pete Tucci 22 R OF .119 .182 .250 .182 1.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
Fausto Solano 24 R SS -.036 .167 .167 .167 -.06 0 0 1 0 0 0 12
Brent Bowers 27 L OF -.118 .000 .125 .000 -1.37 0 1 0 0 0 0 8
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Reed Secrist 28 L C .255 .250 .2501.000 9.92 1 1 1 1 0 0 4
Julio Mosquera 26 R C .128 .167 .286 .167 1.60 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Luis Rodriguez 24 R C -.159 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
KNOXVILLE .166 .167 .259 .313 2.58 8 6 5 4 0 1 108
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jason Stevenson 23 R 0 1 3.18 3.18 2.98 5.7 .233 .227 .292 .287 0 7.9
Tyson Hartshorn 23 R 0 1 5.40 5.40 5.88 5.0 .297 .318 .375 .402 0 5.4
Chris McBride 24 R 0 1 3.60 9.00 5.88 5.0 .325 .318 .360 .402 0 1.8
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
2-Roger Doman 25 R 0 0 .00 .00 -2.79 1.0-.177 .000 .000 .000 0 9.0
Doug Meiners 24 R 0 0 .00 .00 -2.79 1.0-.174 .000 .000 .000 0 9.0
Isabel Giron 20 R 0 0 .00 .00 -2.79 2.0-.168 .000 .000 .000 0 9.0
Sean McClellan 25 R 0 0 3.00 3.00 1.07 3.0 .210 .200 .182 .253 0 3.0
Brian Smith 25 R 0 0 .00 .00 5.21 1.3 .227 .333 .333 .421 0 13.5
John Bale 24 L 0 0 18.00 27.00 10.90 1.0 .484 .400 .500 .505 0 .0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hagerstown Suns 3- 2 (playoff games thru 9/06/98) -- A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prospect Age: 21, Competitive Adjustment: 2.07, Park Factor: 1.04
BATTERS
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Vernon Wells 19 R OF .287 .476 .500 .619 12.19 5 4 2 0 1 0 22
Chris Hayes 24 R 3B .236 .294 .455 .529 8.88 4 2 5 1 0 0 22
Tony Peters 23 R OF .232 .313 .455 .500 8.19 4 3 3 1 0 1 22
Greg Morrison 22 L 1B .222 .316 .381 .526 7.04 4 2 3 0 0 0 21
Josh Phelps 21 R C .208 .278 .350 .500 5.46 3 4 3 1 0 1 20
Cesar Izturis 18 S SS .203 .316 .316 .474 5.12 3 1 2 0 0 0 19
Bobby Cripps 21 L DH .190 .250 .250 .500 4.37 2 1 4 1 0 0 12
Lorenzo Bagley 22 R OF .164 .250 .318 .300 3.27 2 1 0 0 0 0 22
Mike Young 21 R 2B -.092 .000 .182 .000 -.71 0 3 0 0 0 0 22
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mike Strange 24 R DH .216 .250 .333 .625 7.15 2 3 1 1 0 0 9
Luis Morillo 20 L DH .000 .000 .000 .000 .00 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Jesse Zepeda 24 S 3B -.143 .000 .000 .000 -2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
HAGERSTOWN .210 .278 .359 .444 5.56 27 25 23 5 1 2 192
STARTERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Clayton Andrews 20 L 1 1 3.38 5.91 6.89 10.7 .369 .283 .313 .535 3 9.3
John Sneed 22 R 1 0 5.14 5.79 5.88 14.0 .378 .263 .311 .476 3 7.7
Woody Heath 22 R 0 0 81.00108.00 80.67 .31.136 .600 .5711.305 1 .0
RELIEVERS
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Matt Weimer 23 R 1 0 .00 .00 -2.95 .3-.220 .000 .000 .000 0 .0
2-Leonc Estrella 23 R 0 0 .00 1.59 1.16 5.7 .197 .150 .227 .189 0 9.5
Jaron Seabury 22 R 0 0 .00 .00 2.63 2.3 .207 .143 .300 .180 0 3.9
Matt McClellan 21 R 0 0 3.38 3.38 3.52 5.3 .298 .200 .238 .389 1 15.2
Jarrod Kingrey 21 R 0 1 6.75 6.75 3.12 4.0 .346 .214 .313 .271 0 9.0
Colin Brackeen 23 L 0 0 5.40 5.40 8.24 1.7 .412 .333 .444 .421 0 10.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA) is a park-adjusted, league-average-adjusted,
competition-level-adjusted and minor-league-experience-adjusted stat which
estimates how the player would have performed in the major leagues:
.260 represents average major league performance;
.300 represents excellent major league batting, poor major league pitching.
For batters, EqA is based mainly on hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks,
steals, caught stealing and at bats. These are combined using the Estimated
Runs Produced (ERP) formula, from which R27 (ERP per 27 outs) is estimated,
and R27 is multipled by the listed [R/ERP] factor for the league to get the
R9 value for the EqA formula below.
For pitchers, EqA is based on ERA, RA (like ERA, but includes unearned runs),
and R27 (Estimated Runs Produced against the pitcher based on hits, walks,
home runs, and innings pitched, per 27 outs). In the EqA formula below,
R9 = (ERA*[R/ER])/6 + RA/3 + (R27*[R/ERP])/2, where [R/ER] is the listed
Run-to-Earned-Run ratio for the player's league (typically 1.1 in the
majors, higher in the minors), and [R/ERP] is the listed
Run-to-Estimated-Runs-Produced ratio for the player's league (typically
1.0 in the majors, higher in the minors).
Note: The purpose of the [R/ER] and [R/ERP] factors is to put ERA and
R27 on the same scale as RA for comparison to the league average;
these factors are higher for the lower leagues, presumably
because more errors are made. This report is the first time
I've used these factors. I've increased the Competition
Adjustment slightly so that hitter EqAs work out to about the
same as before. A side effect is that pitcher EqAs have gone up,
especially for lower-level pitchers, which wasn't intended, but
wasn't unwelcome either.
The EqA formula is
EqA = ( (( R9 / ( PF * DiffAdj * AgeAdj ) / AvgR9 )) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where
R9 is as explained above for batters and pitchers,
PF is the Park Factor (listed for each team),
DiffAdj is the listed Competitive Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Competitive Adjustment) for pitchers,
(the Competitive Adjustment is (1.20^n) where n is the number
of levels down from the majors);
AgeAdj is the Age Adjustment for batters, and
1/(Age Adjustment) for pitchers, where the Age Adjustment is
1.0 for players of the listed Prospect Age or younger
1.045^(YearsOverage+1) for older players where
YearsOverage is the lesser of (Age minus Prospect Age) and 10;
AvgR9 is the listed League Average Runs per 9 Innings (RA) (in the case
of batters, this number is divided by 1.03 because of the DH rule)
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'pitchers' may differ from what he would do,
and my formulas and adjustment factors for 'hitters' differ.
In particular, I suspect he separately adjusts each hitter stat
(e.g. separately adjusts singles, doubles, triples, etc.) whereas
I just adjust total runs, which may be less accurate. The age
adjustment is loosely based on his Aug 9/98 post to
news:rec.sport.baseball; in that article, he suggests treating every
2 years over-age as the same as being one level lower, but for me
that results in a bigger adjustment than is reflected in his
examples, so I used the above age adjustment to fit his examples.
Also, I arbitrarily added the 10 year maximum. Davenport believes
based on his studies that older players have an "Experience Advantage"
in the minor leagues which improves their minor league performance but
doesn't carry over to the majors.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.615*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
Age: as of July 1, 1998
X- No longer in league
1- 1st team played for in this league this year
2- 2nd team played for in this league this year
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, explained above
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, estimated as 26*ERP/(AB-H+CS)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced, explained above
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use ERP instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB+HBP)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, explained above
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
D: Doubles, estimated as .219*(H-HR)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as 0
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as 0
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.615(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is taken from the Toronto Blue Jays web site
http://www.bluejays.ca/stats/minors/1998/org.cgi
1998 League Averages were derived from the numbers in STATS Minor League
Handbook 1999. Many of the ages were also derived from this source.
Park factors are derived from the ones listed in STATS Minor League Handbook
1998 (not 1999 because that edition didn't contain updated park factors).
For Medicine Hat, the park factor was estimated using the team's runs
scored and allowed per 9 innings compared to the league average.
Equivalent Average is in the same spirit as described by Clay Davenport in
Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay Davenport, Rany
Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
The age adjustment (also known as experience advantage) concept is based on
Clay Davenport's Aug 9/98 article in news:rec.sport.baseball.
Competition Adjustments were based in part on "reverse engineering" the
Equivalent Averages of minor leaguers listed in Baseball Prospectus 1998.
My hitter EqAs are similar down to at least A-ball but my pitcher
adjustments seem to be larger.
The landmark study in "Making Sense of Minor League Batting Statistics" was
published by Bill James in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1985. Note that
it did not look at whether translated minor league pitching stats were as
reliable a predictor of major league performance as translated minor league
batting stats, nor did it look at batters below AAA level.
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1999 January 21
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.