"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1998 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1998 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 141, Mike Stanley 22, Juan Samuel 3,
Mark Dalesandro 2, Felipe Crespo 1, Kevin Witt 1
Second Base: Craig Grebeck 91, Tony Fernandez 82, Felipe Crespo 8,
Juan Samuel 2, Tomas Perez 1
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez 158, Craig Grebeck 6, Tomas Perez 4
Third Base: Ed Sprague 105, Tony Fernandez 53, Mark Dalesandro 8,
Tom Evans 7, Craig Grebeck 4, Felipe Crespo 2
Left Field: Shannon Stewart 110, Jose Canseco 50, Felipe Crespo 19,
Tony Phillips 11, Juan Samuel 8, Jose Cruz Jr 6,
Mike Stanley 1
Center Field: Jose Cruz Jr 103, Shannon Stewart 44, Shawn Green 32,
Felipe Crespo 1
Right Field: Shawn Green 128, Jose Canseco 26, Felipe Crespo 24,
Tony Phillips 4, Juan Samuel 2, Patrick Lennon 2,
Mark Dalesandro 1
Catcher: Darrin Fletcher 121, Kevin Brown 52, Mark Dalesandro 18,
Benito Santiago 15
Starting Pitcher: Roger Clemens 33, Woody Williams 32, Pat Hentgen 29,
Chris Carpenter 24, Juan Guzman 22, Kelvim Escobar 10,
Erik Hanson 8, Dave Stieb 3, Roy Halladay 2
Relief Pitcher: Paul Quantrill 82, Dan Plesac 78, Bill Risley 44,
Randy Myers 41, Robert Person 27, Carlos Almanzar 25,
Steve Sinclair 24, Dave Stieb 16, Kelvim Escobar 12,
Ben Vanryn 10, Chris Carpenter 9, Nerio Rodriguez 7,
Luis Andujar 5, Erik Hanson 3, Shannon Withem 1
Designated Hitter: Jose Canseco 78, Mike Stanley 73, Juan Samuel 11,
Felipe Crespo 2, Carlos Delgado 1, Tony Fernandez 1,
Darrin Fletcher 1
Manager: Tim Johnson
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1998 in Context
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The '98 Jays were 8 games out of a playoff spot at the end of April and 10.5
games out of a playoff spot at the end of July, but were 34-18 (.653) after
the July 31 trading deadline to finish just 4 games out of a playoff spot:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) NYYankees 5.96 | ( 1) NYYankees 4.05 | ( 1) NYYankees 114-48 .704
( 2) Texas 5.91 | ( 2) Boston 4.57 | ( 2) Boston 92-70 .568
( 3) Boston 5.49 | ( 3) Tampa Bay 4.68 | ( 3) Cleveland 89-73 .549
( 4) Seattle 5.43 | ( 4) TORONTO 4.72 | ( 4) TORONTO 88-74 .543
( 5) White Sox 5.39 | ( 5) Cleveland 4.80 | ( 4) Texas 88-74 .543
( 6) Cleveland 5.24 | ( 6) Anaheim 4.88 | ( 6) Anaheim 85-77 .525
( 7) Baltimore 5.14 | ( 7) Baltimore 4.94 | ( 7) White Sox 80-82 .494
( 8) Oakland 5.05 | ( 8) Minnesota 5.09 | ( 8) Baltimore 79-83 .488
( 9) TORONTO 5.01 | ( 9) Detroit 5.37 | ( 9) Seattle 76-85 .472
(10) Anaheim 4.91 | (10) Seattle 5.40 | (10) Oakland 74-88 .457
(11) Minnesota 4.56 | (11) Oakland 5.44 | (11) Kansas City 72-89 .447
(12) Detroit 4.49 | (12) Texas 5.48 | (12) Minnesota 70-92 .432
(13) Kansas City 4.47 | (13) Kansas City 5.63 | (13) Detroit 65-97 .401
(14) Tampa Bay 3.87 | (14) White Sox 5.82 | (14) Tampa Bay 63-99 .389
Avg 5.06 Avg 5.06 1135-1131
Correcting the above for park factor, the '98 Jays had an average offense
(an Equivalent Average of .260 is average), significantly improved from
last the previous two years:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY CHW TEX SEA BOS CLE BAL TOR OAK ANA KAN DET MIN TAM
.279 .273 .271 .269 .267 .266 .264 .260 .258 .257 .249 .247 .247 .230
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '98 Jays had better than
average pitching & defense, but not as good as the previous year (.247):
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY BOS TAM TOR ANA CLE MIN BAL TEX DET OAK SEA KAN CHW
.239 .248 .248 .253 .256 .257 .258 .260 .263 .266 .266 .268 .273 .281
The park factors are based on 1995-1997 data for runs per game (except when the
park changed) as listed in the STATS Major League Handbook 1998. For
convenience, I gave Milwaukee's park factor to Tampa Bay. In a future version
of this article, I'll update the park factors to include 1998 data:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 12 12 14
TEX TAM MIN BOS OAK DET ANA TOR KAN NYY SEA BAL CLE CHW
4.8 3.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 .4 -.1 -.6 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -5.6
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'98 Hitters
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Carlos Delgado was the Jays' best hitter. Tony Fernandez gave the offense a
big boost compared to Garcia & Duncan of a year earlier. Shawn Green hit best
among the young outfielders. Shannon Stewart hit much better than Otis Nixon
of a year earlier. Jose Canseco was an improvement on Joe Carter but was only
the team's 5th-best hitter. Jose Cruz hit the same as Orlando Merced of a year
earlier. Darrin Fletcher hit better than either of the previous year's
catchers. Ed Sprague was traded to Oakland in late July. Alex Gonzalez' bat
declined on the previous year:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 26 L 1B .316 .292 .389 .592 7.86 106 94 115 38 3 0 614
Tony Fernandez 36 S 2B .288 .321 .390 .459 6.23 76 71 72 9 13 8 541
Shawn Green 25 L RF .281 .278 .336 .510 5.89 99 106 100 35 35 12 685
Shannon Stewart 24 R LF .278 .279 .377 .417 5.71 80 90 55 12 51 18 597
Jose Canseco 33 R DH .275 .237 .320 .518 5.54 92 98 107 46 29 17 654
Jose Cruz 24 S CF .265 .253 .357 .403 5.09 49 55 42 11 11 4 409
Darrin Fletcher 31 L C .255 .283 .333 .410 4.62 49 37 52 9 0 0 438
Ed Sprague 30 R 3B .247 .238 .302 .424 4.24 45 49 51 17 0 2 417
Alex Gonzalez 25 R SS .226 .239 .282 .361 3.40 54 70 51 13 21 6 602
Mike Stanley hit slightly better than Jose Canseco and was traded in late July.
Kevin Brown was acquired from Texas for Tim Crabtree before the season, looked
good defensively and probably should have played more. Felipe Crespo often
played the outfield while Cruz was in Syracuse. Craig Grebeck appeared solid
defensively at second-base but offensively the Jays still could use a boost
there:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mike Stanley 35 R DH .279 .240 .356 .472 5.77 54 49 47 22 2 1 402
Kevin L Brown 25 R C .252 .264 .331 .400 4.48 13 17 15 2 0 0 121
Felipe Crespo 25 S OF .249 .262 .347 .362 4.32 15 11 15 1 4 3 147
Craig Grebeck 33 R 2B .238 .256 .329 .346 3.86 31 33 27 2 2 2 334
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Patrick Lennon 30 R OF .438 .500 .5001.000 17.86 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Tony Phillips 39 S LF .336 .354 .475 .521 9.19 10 9 7 1 0 0 59
Benito Santiago 33 R C .272 .310 .333 .483 5.44 4 3 4 0 0 0 30
Mark Dalesandro 30 R C .259 .299 .309 .463 4.77 8 8 14 2 0 0 68
Juan Samuel 37 R OF .214 .180 .293 .280 2.98 5 14 2 1 13 8 58
Tomas Perez 24 S SS .038 .111 .200 .111 .04 0 1 0 0 0 0 10
Kevin Witt 22 L 1B -.102 .143 .143 .143 -.47 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
The Pitchers -.120 .100 .143 .100 -.69 0 0 0 0 0 0 21
Tom Evans 23 R 3B -.171 .000 .091 .000 -1.69 -1 0 0 0 0 0 11
Triples:
Shawn Green 4, Shannon Stewart 3, Jose Cruz 3, Tony Fernandez 2,
Craig Grebeck 2, Carlos Delgado 1, Darrin Fletcher 1, Kevin L Brown 1,
Felipe Crespo 1, Alex Gonzalez 1
Doubles (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 43, Tony Fernandez 36, Shawn Green 33, Shannon Stewart 29,
Alex Gonzalez 28, Jose Canseco 26, Darrin Fletcher 23, Ed Sprague 20
Times On Base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 239, Shawn Green 230, Shannon Stewart 225,
Tony Fernandez 211, Jose Canseco 209, Alex Gonzalez 170
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Shawn Green 467, Jose Canseco 462, Alex Gonzalez 438, Shannon Stewart 390,
Carlos Delgado 375, Tony Fernandez 338, Ed Sprague 293
Games Played (leaders):
Shawn Green 158, Alex Gonzalez 158, Jose Canseco 151, Shannon Stewart 144,
Carlos Delgado 142, Tony Fernandez 138, Darrin Fletcher 124, Jose Cruz 105
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'98 Starting Pitchers
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Roger Clemens should win the Cy Young award. Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams
and Juan Guzman were all better than average (an EqA of .260 is average).
Guzman was traded to Baltimore for Nerio Rodriguez in late July:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens 35 R 20 6 2.65 2.99 2.70 234.7 .206 .201 .282 .291 11 10.4
Chris Carpenter 23 R 12 7 4.37 4.99 4.53 175.0 .253 .261 .326 .404 18 7.0
Woody Williams 31 R 10 9 4.46 4.81 4.73 209.7 .255 .246 .317 .436 36 6.5
Juan Guzman 31 R 6 12 4.41 5.15 4.60 145.0 .255 .242 .329 .402 19 7.0
Pat Hentgen 29 R 12 11 5.17 5.52 5.88 177.7 .274 .290 .356 .475 28 4.8
Kelvim Escobar replaced Guzman in the rotation and pitched great.
Roy Halladay came within one out of a no-hitter on the last day of the season:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roy Halladay 21 R 1 0 1.93 2.57 2.28 14.0 .192 .183 .215 .344 2 8.4
Kelvim Escobar 22 R 7 3 3.73 4.18 3.86 79.7 .237 .240 .319 .350 5 8.1
Erik Hanson 33 R 0 3 6.24 6.24 8.43 49.0 .304 .342 .423 .562 10 3.9
Games Started:
Roger Clemens 33, Woody Williams 32, Pat Hentgen 29, Chris Carpenter 24,
Juan Guzman 22, Kelvim Escobar 10, Erik Hanson 8, Dave Stieb 3,
Roy Halladay 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Roger Clemens 7.1, Roy Halladay 7.0, Juan Guzman 6.6, Woody Williams 6.6,
Pat Hentgen 6.1, Chris Carpenter 5.3, Erik Hanson 4.5, Kelvim Escobar 3.6
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'98 Relief Pitchers
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Quantrill and Plesac were excellent in the pen, though Plesac was unavailable
sometimes at the end of the year from over-use (appearances, not innings).
Randy Myers was traded to San Diego in early August, and the Jays had no 9th-
inning troubles afterward until naming a new closer in September. Robert
Person converted 6 of 8 save opportunities in September after some bad long
relief outings earlier in the year:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Paul Quantrill 29 R 3 4 2.59 2.93 4.48 80.0 .230 .277 .330 .395 5 6.6
Dan Plesac 36 L 4 3 3.78 4.14 3.27 50.0 .230 .222 .288 .342 4 9.9
Randy Myers 35 L 3 4 4.46 4.46 4.96 42.3 .255 .266 .349 .404 4 6.8
Bill Risley 31 R 3 4 5.27 6.09 5.35 54.7 .273 .249 .365 .408 7 6.9
Robert Person 28 R 3 1 7.04 7.28 7.10 38.3 .301 .291 .386 .528 9 7.3
Dave Stieb returned and pitched very well at first but declined with irregular
work. Sinclair and Almanzar look like they could contribute for a few years,
especially Almanzar. Nerio Rodriguez needs to get more innings in:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Sinclair 26 L 0 2 3.60 4.20 2.88 15.0 .225 .232 .295 .295 0 4.8
Shannon Withem 25 R 0 0 3.00 3.00 4.53 3.0 .233 .259 .368 .328 0 6.0
Dave Stieb 40 R 1 2 4.83 5.54 5.55 50.3 .269 .287 .357 .445 6 4.8
Carlos Almanzar 24 R 2 2 5.34 5.65 5.52 28.7 .272 .293 .344 .466 4 6.3
Ben Vanryn 26 L 0 1 9.00 9.00 6.58 4.0 .312 .344 .411 .436 0 6.8
Nerio Rodriguez 25 R 1 0 9.72 9.72 7.67 8.3 .326 .295 .443 .455 1 3.2
Luis Andujar 25 R 0 0 9.53 9.53 9.30 5.7 .336 .425 .463 .539 0 1.6
Relief Appearances:
Paul Quantrill 82, Dan Plesac 78, Bill Risley 44, Randy Myers 41,
Robert Person 27, Carlos Almanzar 25, Steve Sinclair 24, Dave Stieb 16,
Kelvim Escobar 12, Ben Vanryn 10, Chris Carpenter 9, Nerio Rodriguez 7,
Luis Andujar 5, Erik Hanson 3, Shannon Withem 1
Saves:
Randy Myers 28, Paul Quantrill 7, Robert Person 6, Dan Plesac 4,
Dave Stieb 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Shannon Withem 3.0, Dave Stieb 2.6, Robert Person 1.4, Bill Risley 1.2,
Nerio Rodriguez 1.2, Carlos Almanzar 1.1, Luis Andujar 1.1,
Randy Myers 1.0, Paul Quantrill 1.0, Dan Plesac .6, Steve Sinclair .6,
Ben Vanryn .4
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Former and Future Jays in '98
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Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
John Olerud NYM .337 .353 .451 .550 8.76 122 91 93 22 2 2 657
Mike Stanley BOS .298 .288 .397 .500 6.96 27 25 32 7 1 0 184
Joe Carter SFG .294 .295 .333 .562 6.35 18 15 29 7 1 0 111
Fred McGriff TAM .275 .284 .373 .443 5.79 81 73 81 19 7 2 644
Roberto Alomar BAL .267 .282 .350 .418 5.11 80 86 56 14 18 5 649
Devon White ARZ .265 .279 .339 .456 5.27 76 84 85 22 22 8 614
Otis Nixon MIN .254 .297 .362 .344 4.71 53 71 20 1 37 7 494
Tony Phillips NYM .251 .223 .354 .330 4.19 24 25 14 3 1 1 226
Paul Molitor MIN .250 .281 .341 .382 4.52 57 75 69 4 9 2 548
Joe Carter BAL .248 .247 .297 .424 4.21 33 36 34 11 3 1 303
Charlie O'Brien CHW .246 .262 .309 .390 3.99 18 12 18 4 0 0 175
Rich Butler TAM .221 .226 .282 .364 3.37 20 25 20 7 4 2 234
Pat Kelly STL .220 .216 .286 .327 3.12 14 18 14 4 5 1 168
Robert Perez SEA .183 .171 .171 .371 1.99 2 3 6 2 0 0 35
Robert Perez MON .180 .236 .257 .274 1.95 6 9 8 1 0 0 109
Ed Sprague OAK .169 .149 .187 .310 1.68 4 8 7 3 1 0 91
Carlos Garcia ANA .147 .143 .231 .171 1.16 1 4 0 0 2 0 39
Charlie O'Brien ANA .144 .182 .250 .182 1.12 0 1 0 0 0 0 12
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Craig Wilson CHW .405 .468 .500 .766 13.95 13 14 10 3 1 0 50
Glenallen Hill CHC .317 .351 .414 .573 8.15 25 26 23 8 0 0 145
Orlando Merced CHC .304 .300 .364 .600 7.32 2 2 5 1 0 0 11
Jeff Kent SFG .302 .297 .364 .555 6.81 95 94 128 31 9 4 582
Derek Bell HOU .299 .314 .369 .490 6.23 108 111 108 22 13 3 685
Glenallen Hill SEA .281 .290 .331 .521 5.82 39 37 33 12 1 1 275
Mark Whiten CLE .276 .284 .371 .427 5.54 33 31 29 6 2 1 256
Lee Stevens TEX .269 .265 .325 .512 5.56 48 52 59 20 0 2 375
Ricke Henderson OAK .267 .236 .377 .347 5.28 80 101 57 14 66 13 665
Sandy Martinez CHC .263 .264 .366 .391 5.08 12 7 7 0 1 0 101
Cecil Fielder ANA .260 .241 .339 .423 4.88 51 48 68 17 0 1 437
Rob Ducey SEA .257 .240 .335 .410 4.67 28 30 23 5 4 3 248
Orlando Merced MIN .257 .289 .347 .422 4.82 25 22 33 5 1 4 222
Turner Ward PIT .254 .262 .333 .426 4.73 35 33 46 9 5 4 312
Ruben Sierra CHW .245 .216 .247 .459 3.96 9 7 11 4 2 0 77
Greg Myers SDP .243 .246 .314 .374 3.85 19 19 20 4 0 1 188
Chris Stynes CIN .239 .254 .324 .340 3.90 37 52 27 6 15 1 383
Domingo Cedeno TEX .235 .262 .311 .383 3.97 14 19 21 2 2 1 151
Abraham Nunez PIT .232 .192 .344 .288 3.75 6 6 2 1 4 2 64
Miguel Cairo TAM .232 .268 .308 .367 3.79 50 49 46 5 19 8 545
Geronimo Berroa DET .231 .238 .338 .310 3.63 13 17 10 1 0 1 145
Darrin Jackson MIL .219 .240 .276 .373 3.26 18 20 20 4 1 1 214
Geronimo Berroa CLE .201 .200 .278 .277 2.51 5 6 3 0 1 0 72
Pat Borders CLE .196 .237 .287 .275 2.36 11 12 6 0 0 2 171
Luis Sojo NYY .178 .231 .252 .265 1.86 8 16 14 0 1 0 151
Cecil Fielder CLE .091 .143 .189 .171 .35 0 1 0 0 0 0 37
Orlando Merced BOS-.118 .000 .182 .000 -.69 0 0 2 0 0 0 11
Nelson Liriano COL-.182 .000 .000 .000 -2.48 -1 0 0 0 0 0 17
Omar Daal had a big year after the Jays let him go in the expansion draft:
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Al Leiter NYM 17 6 2.47 2.56 3.02 193.0 .218 .215 .298 .304 8 8.1
Mike Timlin SEA 3 3 2.95 2.95 3.72 79.3 .222 .255 .301 .369 5 6.8
Omar Daal ARZ 8 12 2.88 3.32 3.58 162.7 .227 .239 .301 .357 12 7.3
David Wells NYY 18 4 3.49 3.61 3.57 214.3 .228 .241 .268 .404 29 6.8
David Cone NYY 20 7 3.55 3.86 3.82 207.7 .234 .238 .303 .372 20 9.1
Tim Crabtree TEX 6 1 3.59 4.22 4.19 85.3 .236 .260 .336 .355 3 6.3
Jimmy Key BAL 6 3 4.20 4.42 3.87 79.3 .243 .253 .312 .366 5 6.0
Juan Guzman BAL 4 4 4.23 4.64 4.09 66.0 .247 .241 .332 .350 4 7.5
Tod Stottlemyre STL 9 9 3.51 4.13 4.03 161.3 .248 .241 .304 .395 20 8.2
Tod Stottlemyre TEX 5 4 4.33 4.92 5.32 60.3 .256 .282 .362 .415 5 8.5
Paul Spoljaric SEA 4 6 6.48 7.24 5.94 83.3 .290 .262 .371 .451 14 9.6
Randy Myers SDP 1 3 6.28 6.28 5.29 14.3 .292 .269 .350 .438 2 5.7
Nerio Rodriguez BAL 1 3 8.05 8.05 5.57 19.0 .297 .315 .384 .399 0 3.8
Tony Castillo CHW 1 2 8.00 8.33 8.06 27.0 .324 .329 .397 .584 7 4.7
Darren Hall LAD 0 3 10.32 11.12 7.98 11.3 .362 .345 .416 .547 2 6.4
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Graeme Lloyd NYY 3 0 1.67 2.39 2.24 37.7 .188 .194 .239 .308 3 4.8
Xavie Hernandez TEX 6 6 3.57 4.19 3.49 58.0 .227 .205 .308 .326 5 6.4
David Weathers MIL 4 1 3.21 4.15 3.63 47.7 .236 .245 .306 .355 3 8.1
Willie Blair NYM 1 1 3.14 3.14 3.75 28.7 .237 .220 .294 .382 4 6.6
Billy Taylor OAK 4 9 3.58 4.56 4.18 73.0 .241 .253 .314 .390 7 7.2
Jose Mesa SFG 5 3 2.93 4.11 4.24 30.7 .249 .249 .350 .339 1 8.2
Aaron Small ARZ 3 1 3.69 3.98 4.66 31.7 .249 .262 .312 .443 5 4.0
Jose Silva PIT 6 7 4.40 4.93 4.15 100.3 .254 .267 .319 .387 7 5.7
Greg Cadaret ANA 1 2 4.14 4.14 5.39 37.0 .255 .264 .346 .449 6 9.0
Ben Vanryn CHC 0 0 3.38 3.38 5.73 8.0 .257 .283 .412 .358 0 6.8
Roberto Duran DET 0 1 5.87 5.87 4.10 15.3 .260 .170 .389 .216 0 7.0
Tom Candiotti OAK 11 16 4.84 5.55 5.29 201.0 .265 .278 .337 .456 30 4.4
Greg Cadaret TEX 0 0 4.70 4.70 6.94 7.7 .271 .334 .389 .506 1 5.9
Jose Mesa CLE 3 4 5.17 6.00 5.54 54.0 .275 .283 .354 .447 7 5.8
Willie Blair ARZ 4 15 5.34 5.58 5.68 146.7 .278 .283 .344 .485 27 4.4
Steve Karsay CLE 0 2 5.92 5.92 5.88 24.3 .280 .308 .359 .472 3 4.8
Travis Baptist MIN 0 1 5.67 6.00 6.52 27.0 .281 .305 .368 .510 5 3.7
Danny Darwin SFG 8 10 5.51 5.87 5.70 148.7 .288 .293 .350 .476 23 4.9
Scott Brow ARZ 1 0 7.17 7.17 5.34 21.3 .291 .266 .372 .402 2 5.5
Dave Weathers CIN 2 4 6.21 6.79 6.15 62.3 .297 .326 .391 .444 3 7.4
Aaron Small OAK 1 1 7.25 8.50 6.72 36.0 .303 .331 .397 .473 3 4.8
Ben Vanryn SDP 0 1 10.13 10.13 7.54 2.7 .346 .283 .479 .358 0 3.4
Mike Johnson MON 0 2 14.73 14.73 13.91 7.3 .408 .434 .476 .845 4 4.9
Ricardo Jordan CIN 1 0 24.30 24.30 14.27 3.3 .464 .296 .537 .780 2 2.7
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1998 American League Leaders
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Albert Belle was the best hitter in the league but apparently is too unpopular
to be considered for MVP. Carlos Delgado finished 6th on the EqA leaderboard:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 346 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Albert Belle CHW .340 .328 .408 .655 9.01 141 113 152 49 6 4 691
Edgar Martinez SEA .327 .322 .433 .565 8.55 117 86 102 29 1 1 665
Jim Thome CLE .326 .293 .417 .584 8.37 95 89 85 30 1 0 533
Bernie Williams NYY .325 .339 .425 .575 8.41 103 101 97 26 15 9 574
Mo Vaughn BOS .318 .337 .404 .591 8.21 117 107 115 40 0 0 678
Carlos Delgado TOR .316 .292 .389 .592 7.86 106 94 115 38 3 0 614
Eric Davis BAL .316 .327 .393 .582 7.73 88 81 89 28 7 6 501
Manny Ramirez CLE .315 .294 .382 .599 7.72 115 108 145 45 5 3 652
Tim Salmon ANA .313 .300 .417 .533 7.76 90 84 88 26 0 1 556
Ken GriffeyJr SEA .312 .284 .366 .611 7.62 126 120 146 56 20 5 715
Juan Gonzalez TEX .310 .318 .372 .630 7.95 113 110 157 45 2 1 658
Rafael Palmeiro BAL .308 .296 .382 .565 7.30 118 98 121 43 11 7 705
Nom Garciaparra BOS .303 .323 .365 .584 7.24 106 111 122 35 12 6 644
Alex Rodriguez SEA .302 .310 .359 .560 6.97 123 123 124 42 46 13 738
Roger Clemens should win the Cy Young award again:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 128.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens TOR 20 6 2.65 2.99 2.70 234.7 .206 .201 .282 .291 11 10.4
Pedro Martinez BOS 19 7 2.89 3.16 3.38 233.7 .217 .219 .282 .361 26 9.7
Orlan Hernandez NYY 12 4 3.13 3.38 3.37 141.0 .222 .218 .297 .335 11 8.4
Kenny Rogers OAK 16 8 3.17 3.62 3.59 238.7 .225 .239 .297 .361 19 5.2
David Wells NYY 18 4 3.49 3.61 3.57 214.3 .228 .241 .268 .404 29 6.8
Mike Mussina BAL 13 10 3.49 3.71 3.61 206.3 .231 .242 .283 .384 22 7.6
Ramiro Mendoza NYY 10 2 3.25 3.45 4.01 130.3 .232 .260 .313 .378 9 3.9
David Cone NYY 20 7 3.55 3.86 3.82 207.7 .234 .238 .303 .372 20 9.1
Jamie Moyer SEA 15 9 3.53 3.80 3.97 234.3 .235 .258 .298 .397 23 6.1
Rolando Arrojo TAM 14 12 3.56 3.74 4.40 202.0 .235 .252 .324 .394 21 6.8
Chuck Finley ANA 11 9 3.39 3.91 4.47 223.3 .240 .247 .337 .378 20 8.5
Bret Saberhagen BOS 15 8 3.96 4.22 4.31 175.0 .241 .265 .301 .425 22 5.1
Brian Moehler DET 14 13 3.90 4.19 4.36 221.3 .243 .257 .305 .423 30 5.0
Bartolo Colon CLE 14 9 3.71 4.01 4.35 204.0 .243 .260 .329 .381 15 7.0
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mike Jackson CLE 1 1 1.55 1.55 2.17 64.0 .176 .190 .246 .289 4 7.7
Mariano Rivera NYY 3 0 1.91 1.91 2.66 61.3 .191 .214 .270 .309 3 5.3
Tom Gordon BOS 7 4 2.72 2.72 2.13 79.3 .194 .195 .260 .267 2 8.8
John Wetteland TEX 3 1 2.03 2.47 2.76 62.0 .194 .209 .256 .338 6 10.5
Doug Brocail DET 5 2 2.73 3.30 2.44 62.7 .205 .207 .269 .287 2 7.9
Jim Mecir TAM 7 2 3.11 3.21 3.41 84.0 .217 .220 .302 .333 6 8.3
Jim Corsi BOS 3 2 2.59 3.14 3.73 66.0 .220 .235 .302 .364 6 6.7
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Theory Stuff, 1998
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The Jays finished 3 wins ahead of their Pythagorean record, and were 9 games
out of a playoff spot in the Pythagorean race:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) NYY 108-54 .670 | ( 1) KAN 8
( 2) BOS 94-68 .583 | ( 2) NYY 6
( 3) CLE 87-75 .540 | ( 3) CHW 5
( 4) TEX 87-75 .535 | ( 4) ANA 4
( 5) TOR 85-77 .528 | ( 5) TOR 3
( 6) BAL 84-78 .518 | ( 6) CLE 2
( 7) ANA 81-81 .502 | ( 7) TEX 1
( 8) SEA 81-80 .502 | ( 8) OAK -2
( 9) OAK 76-86 .466 | ( 9) BOS -2
(10) CHW 75-87 .464 | (10) DET -3
(11) MIN 73-89 .451 | (11) MIN -3
(12) DET 68-94 .419 | (12) TAM -4
(13) TAM 67-95 .413 | (13) SEA -5
(14) KAN 64-97 .396 | (14) BAL -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National League
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Houston 5.35 | ( 1) Atlanta 3.63 | ( 1) Atlanta 106-56 .654
( 2) Colorado 5.19 | ( 2) Houston 3.79 | ( 2) Houston 102-60 .630
( 3) Atlanta 5.17 | ( 3) San Diego 3.93 | ( 3) San Diego 98-64 .605
( 4)SanFrancisco 5.15 | ( 4) NYMets 3.98 | ( 4) Cubs 90-73 .552
( 5) Cubs 5.06 | ( 5) Los Angeles 4.22 | ( 5)SanFrancisco 89-74 .546
( 6) St. Louis 4.96 | ( 6) Pittsburgh 4.46 | ( 6) NYMets 88-74 .543
( 7) Cincinnati 4.68 | ( 7)SanFrancisco 4.50 | ( 7) Los Angeles 83-79 .512
( 8) San Diego 4.63 | ( 8) Cincinnati 4.75 | ( 7) St. Louis 83-79 .512
( 9)Philadelphia 4.39 | ( 9) St. Louis 4.79 | ( 9) Cincinnati 77-85 .475
(10) Milwaukee 4.39 | (10) Cubs 4.82 | ( 9) Colorado 77-85 .475
(11) NYMets 4.36 | (11) Montreal 4.94 | (11)Philadelphia 75-87 .463
(12) Arizona 4.18 | (12)Philadelphia 4.97 | (12) Milwaukee 74-88 .457
(13) Los Angeles 4.16 | (13) Milwaukee 5.04 | (13) Pittsburgh 69-93 .426
(14) Florida 4.14 | (14) Arizona 5.10 | (14) Arizona 65-97 .401
(15) Montreal 4.06 | (15) Colorado 5.37 | (14) Montreal 65-97 .401
(16) Pittsburgh 4.04 | (16) Florida 5.73 | (16) Florida 54-108 .333
Avg 4.62 Avg 4.63 1295-1299
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HOU SFG ATL STL CHC SDP CIN LAD NYM FLA PHI MIL COL ARZ MON PIT
.286 .274 .274 .270 .266 .266 .261 .260 .259 .254 .253 .251 .248 .246 .245 .242
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL SDP HOU NYM COL PIT SFG LAD CHC CIN MON MIL STL PHI ARZ FLA
.238 .249 .249 .250 .252 .252 .260 .261 .261 .263 .265 .265 .266 .266 .266 .289
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16
COL PIT MIL ARZ CHC MON PHI CIN ATL STL SFG FLA NYM SDP HOU LAD
26.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.4 .0 -1.6 -2.0 -2.6 -4.6 -5.0 -5.0 -8.6 -9.6
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) ATL 106-56 .656 | ( 1) CHC 5
( 2) HOU 106-56 .652 | ( 2) SDP 5
( 3) SDP 93-69 .575 | ( 3) PHI 3
( 4) SFG 91-72 .561 | ( 4) MIL 3
( 5) NYM 88-74 .541 | ( 5) LAD 3
( 6) CHC 85-78 .522 | ( 6) NYM 0
( 7) STL 84-78 .516 | ( 7) ATL 0
( 8) CIN 80-82 .494 | ( 8) STL -1
( 9) LAD 80-82 .494 | ( 9) ARZ -1
(10) COL 78-84 .484 | (10) COL -1
(11) PIT 74-88 .455 | (11) MON -2
(12) PHI 72-90 .443 | (12) SFG -2
(13) MIL 71-91 .437 | (13) CIN -3
(14) MON 67-95 .412 | (14) FLA -4
(15) ARZ 66-96 .410 | (15) HOU -4
(16) FLA 58-104 .356 | (16) PIT -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 346 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mark McGwire STL .374 .299 .473 .752 11.70 156 130 147 70 1 0 677
Gary Sheffield LAD .343 .316 .451 .535 8.67 74 52 57 16 18 5 375
Barry Bonds SFG .339 .303 .441 .609 9.11 136 120 122 37 28 12 689
Mike Piazza NYM .338 .349 .421 .608 8.77 86 67 76 23 1 0 442
John Olerud NYM .337 .353 .451 .550 8.76 122 91 93 22 2 2 657
Jeff Bagwell HOU .334 .304 .426 .557 8.21 126 124 111 34 19 7 655
Moises Alou HOU .330 .312 .403 .582 7.99 129 104 124 38 11 3 673
Craig Biggio HOU .319 .325 .404 .503 7.35 130 123 88 20 50 8 732
Andre Galarraga ATL .319 .305 .398 .595 7.89 115 103 121 44 7 6 641
Sammy Sosa CHC .317 .308 .379 .647 8.15 131 134 158 66 18 9 717
Chipper Jones ATL .316 .313 .409 .547 7.71 120 123 107 34 16 6 699
Larry Walker COL .314 .363 .445 .630 9.71 82 113 67 23 14 4 521
Greg Vaughn SDP .313 .272 .365 .597 7.28 118 112 119 50 11 4 657
Ray Lankford STL .312 .293 .394 .540 7.40 105 94 105 31 26 5 622
Vladim Guerrero MON .305 .324 .373 .589 7.33 112 108 109 38 11 8 671
Barry Larkin CIN .305 .309 .399 .504 7.16 98 93 72 17 26 3 619
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 128.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Greg Maddux ATL 18 9 2.22 2.69 2.55 251.0 .207 .219 .261 .316 13 7.3
Kevin Brown SDP 18 7 2.38 2.70 2.83 257.0 .216 .235 .279 .320 8 9.0
Al Leiter NYM 17 6 2.47 2.56 3.02 193.0 .218 .215 .298 .304 8 8.1
Tom Glavine ATL 20 6 2.47 2.63 3.35 229.3 .220 .236 .298 .340 13 6.2
John Smoltz ATL 17 3 2.90 3.11 3.15 167.7 .224 .233 .287 .338 10 9.3
Omar Daal ARZ 8 12 2.88 3.32 3.58 162.7 .227 .239 .301 .357 12 7.3
Curt Schilling PHI 15 14 3.25 3.38 3.32 268.7 .228 .236 .283 .361 23 10.0
Kerry Wood CHC 13 6 3.40 3.73 3.38 166.7 .231 .198 .310 .315 14 12.6
Pete Harnisch CIN 14 7 3.14 3.40 3.62 209.0 .233 .228 .292 .374 24 6.8
Dusti Hermanson MON 14 11 3.13 3.85 3.70 187.0 .236 .234 .294 .379 21 7.4
Francis Cordova PIT 13 14 3.31 3.72 3.91 220.3 .236 .245 .305 .383 22 6.4
Chris Peters PIT 8 10 3.47 3.83 4.17 148.0 .241 .252 .322 .382 13 6.3
John Thomson COL 8 11 4.81 4.81 4.89 161.0 .243 .275 .329 .439 21 5.9
Denny Neagle ATL 16 11 3.55 3.89 4.04 210.3 .246 .246 .304 .398 25 7.1
Rick Reed NYM 16 11 3.48 3.56 4.03 212.3 .246 .256 .287 .425 30 6.5
Andy Ashby SDP 17 9 3.34 3.57 4.11 226.7 .247 .257 .309 .397 23 6.0
Top 8 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Trevor Hoffman SDP 4 2 1.48 1.48 1.44 73.0 .168 .165 .232 .230 2 10.6
Ugueth Urbina MON 6 3 1.30 1.43 1.81 69.3 .169 .158 .262 .223 2 12.2
Steve Reed SFG 2 1 1.48 1.65 2.07 54.7 .182 .161 .254 .263 4 8.2
Robb Nen SFG 7 7 1.52 2.13 2.07 88.7 .189 .189 .252 .275 4 11.2
Mike Williams PIT 4 2 1.94 2.12 2.44 51.0 .193 .212 .275 .282 1 10.4
Jeff Shaw CIN 2 4 1.81 1.99 2.65 49.7 .197 .220 .272 .309 2 5.3
Dave Veres COL 3 1 2.83 3.07 3.65 76.3 .209 .235 .306 .356 6 8.7
Chuck McElroy COL 6 4 2.90 3.03 3.90 68.3 .212 .259 .321 .359 3 8.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.615*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .987 in 1998
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj
Age: as of July 1, 1998
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 816 runs, allowed 768 runs,
and pitched 1465.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.06 in 1998)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.06 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1998 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1998, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.06
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB+HBP)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.987*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.06 in 1998),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.8/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 1998 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 1998
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .074*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 1998
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .45*SB in 1998
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.615(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .983 in 1998
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.62 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1998 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1998, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.62
Pitching Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.983*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = National League average runs per 9 IP (4.62 in 1998),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1998 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 1998
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .064*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 1998
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .47*SB in 1998
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.615(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/
and is unofficial.
Games played by position taken from USA Today Baseball Weekly Oct 7/98 issue.
Park factors derived from data in STATS Major League Handbook 1998.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Oct 17
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.