"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1997 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1997 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Carlos Delgado 119, Joe Carter 42, Juan Samuel 7,
Orlando Merced 1
Second Base: Carlos Garcia 96, Mariano Duncan 39, Tilson Brito 25,
Tomas Perez 8, Juan Samuel 4, Felipe Crespo 1
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez 125, Tomas Perez 32, Tilson Brito 8,
Carlos Garcia 5
Third Base: Ed Sprague 129, Tilson Brito 17, Tom Evans 12,
Juan Samuel 9, Felipe Crespo 7, Carlos Garcia 4
Left Field: Jose Cruz Jr 51, Shawn Green 45, Joe Carter 41,
Robert Perez 17, Jacob Brumfield 14, Ruben Sierra 6,
Rich Butler 3, Shannon Stewart 2
Center Field: Otis Nixon 102, Shannon Stewart 40, Jacob Brumfield 24,
Jose Cruz Jr 4
Right Field: Orlando Merced 96, Shawn Green 46, Joe Carter 10,
Jacob Brumfield 10, Robert Perez 9, Ruben Sierra 2,
Juan Samuel 2
Catcher: Benito Santiago 95, Charlie O'Brien 69, Julio Mosquera 3,
Sandy Martinez 3
Starting Pitcher: Pat Hentgen 35, Roger Clemens 34, Woody Williams 31,
Robert Person 22, Chris Carpenter 13, Juan Guzman 13,
Luis Andujar 8, Omar Daal 3, Erik Hanson 2,
Huck Flener 1
Relief Pitcher: Paul Quantrill 77, Dan Plesac 73, Mike Timlin 38,
Paul Spoljaric 37, Tim Crabtree 37, Kelvim Escobar 27,
Marty Janzen 12, Luis Andujar 9, Huck Flener 7,
Omar Daal 6, Carlos Almanzar 4, Ken Robinson 3,
Bill Risley 3, Chris Carpenter 1, Robert Person 1,
Erik Hanson 1
Designated Hitter: Joe Carter 64, Shawn Green 35, Carlos Delgado 33,
Juan Samuel 16, Ed Sprague 8, Robert Perez 7,
Ruben Sierra 6, Jacob Brumfield 4, Rich Butler 1,
Benito Santiago 1
Manager: Cito Gaston 72-85, Mel Queen 4-1
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1997 in Context
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The Rocket-powered Jays had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but
a lineup committed to 6 lacklustre millionaires made most other teams' pitching
look tougher than their own. The Tigers, Brewers and Red Sox all won more
games than the high-priced Jays. In the playoffs, Davey Johnson's O's beat
Randy Johnson's M's, the 86-win Indians beat both the Yanks and O's, and the
wildcard Marlins won the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Seattle 5.75 | ( 1) Baltimore 4.20 | ( 1) Baltimore 98-64 .605
( 2) Cleveland 5.48 | ( 2) NYYankees 4.22 | ( 2) NYYankees 96-66 .593
( 3) NYYankees 5.46 | ( 3) TORONTO 4.33 | ( 3) Seattle 90-72 .556
( 4) Boston 5.28 | ( 4) Milwaukee 4.68 | ( 4) Cleveland 86-75 .534
( 5) Anaheim 5.13 | ( 5) Anaheim 4.91 | ( 5) Anaheim 84-78 .519
( 6) Texas 5.08 | ( 6) Detroit 4.92 | ( 6) White Sox 80-81 .497
( 7) Baltimore 5.00 | ( 7) Kansas City 5.11 | ( 7) Detroit 79-83 .488
( 8) White Sox 4.93 | ( 8) Cleveland 5.14 | ( 8) Milwaukee 78-83 .484
( 9) Detroit 4.88 | ( 9) Seattle 5.18 | ( 9) Boston 78-84 .481
(10) Minnesota 4.85 | (10) Texas 5.18 | (10) Texas 77-85 .475
(11) Oakland 4.76 | (11) White Sox 5.27 | (11) TORONTO 76-86 .469
(12) Kansas City 4.66 | (12) Boston 5.31 | (12) Minnesota 68-94 .420
(13) Milwaukee 4.29 | (13) Minnesota 5.40 | (13) Kansas City 67-94 .416
(14) TORONTO 4.08 | (14) Oakland 5.89 | (14) Oakland 65-97 .401
Avg 4.97 Avg 4.98 1122-1142
Correcting the above for park factor, the '97 Jays had the worst hitting in the
league, down 6 points from the also league-worst '96 team, despite all of the
alleged improvements. The fateful trade of Dec 20/96 (more below) explains all
of the drop:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEA CLE NYY CHW BOS ANA BAL DET TEX MIN KAN OAK MIL TOR
.277 .273 .271 .265 .264 .263 .263 .258 .257 .255 .254 .254 .241 .241
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense was 3rd-
best in the league, and not much different from the top two teams:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY BAL TOR MIL DET ANA TEX KAN BOS SEA CLE MIN CHW OAK
.245 .245 .247 .250 .258 .259 .259 .264 .265 .265 .266 .266 .272 .277
SkyDome was essentially a neutral park. (The park factors were derived from
the runs per game data in the STATS Major League Handbook 1998, based on the
years 1995-1997 except when the park changed):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 12 12 14
TEX MIL MIN BOS OAK DET ANA TOR KAN NYY SEA BAL CLE CHW
4.8 3.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 .4 -.1 -.6 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -5.6
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'97 Hitters
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With John Olerud shipped to New York, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green were the
best remaining hitters on the Jays. Some thought Joe Carter's 102 RBIs
indicated he had a fine season, and he did have a few more clutch hits than his
batting average would suggest, but Carter's actual production per out used,
relative to the '97 league standards, was quite poor, as his .237 EqA reveals,
and even if you adjust Carter's EqA for his '97 clutch performance, it
increases to at most .242, still a liability, especially for a 1B/DH (for more
info, see http://www.stephent.com/jays/joe102.html). On Nov 14/96, the Jays
obtained veterans Carlos Garcia, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac from Pittsburgh
for prospects RHP Jose Silva, RHP Jose Pett, LHP Mike Halperin, SS Abraham
Nunez, C Craig Wilson and IF Brandon Cromer. Garcia and free-agent signee
Benito Santiago had terrible first-halves. Of the 6 millionaire regulars, only
Merced had a passable season, and he was injured the last couple months:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 25 L 1B .288 .262 .343 .528 6.17 87 79 91 30 0 3 583
Shawn Green 24 L OF .278 .287 .342 .469 5.64 64 57 53 16 13 3 465
Orlando Merced 30 L RF .267 .266 .349 .413 5.10 51 45 40 9 7 3 415
Otis Nixon 38 S CF .248 .262 .347 .304 4.24 47 54 26 1 47 10 453
Alex Gonzalez 24 R SS .241 .239 .296 .387 3.94 48 46 35 12 15 6 460
Ed Sprague 29 R 3B .240 .228 .299 .385 3.90 56 63 48 14 0 1 555
Joe Carter 37 R DH .237 .234 .281 .399 3.80 65 76 102 21 8 2 652
Benito Santiago 32 R C .232 .243 .279 .387 3.61 34 31 42 13 1 0 358
Carlos Garcia 29 R 2B .201 .220 .252 .309 2.49 25 29 23 3 11 3 365
Enter the replacements. On July 31/97, the Jays traded Mike Timlin and Paul
Spoljaric to the Mariners for Jose Cruz Jr., who hit as well Merced had despite
a late-season slump. On Aug 12/97, the Jays traded Otis Nixon to the Dodgers
for C Bobby Cripps, then called up Shannon Stewart, who hit much better than
Nixon. But follies continued at second-base: veteran Mariano Duncan actually
managed to hit worse than Garcia, despite daily commentary that he'd boosted
the offense, while Jeff Patzke and Felipe Crespo weren't given a real chance:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Juan Samuel 36 R DH .289 .284 .352 .516 6.21 16 13 15 3 5 3 105
Shannon Stewart 23 R CF .280 .286 .358 .446 5.75 26 25 22 0 10 3 187
Jose Cruz 23 S LF .269 .231 .321 .462 5.17 31 31 34 14 6 2 240
Charlie O'Brien 37 R C .222 .218 .287 .342 3.22 21 22 27 4 0 2 247
Jacob Brumfield 32 R OF .195 .207 .266 .282 2.32 12 22 20 2 4 4 188
Tilson Brito 25 R 2B .187 .222 .274 .246 2.09 7 9 8 0 1 0 135
Tomas Perez 23 S SS .184 .195 .261 .252 2.00 7 9 9 0 1 1 134
Mariano Duncan 34 R 2B .183 .228 .254 .263 1.97 9 20 12 0 4 2 173
The replacements for the injured Ed Sprague hit better than Ed Sprague, but Ed
would still have his job to start the next year. The Jays benched Shawn Green
for a while to try Ruben Sierra. Rich Butler was taken by Tampa Bay in the
November expansion draft:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Felipe Crespo 24 S 3B .272 .286 .333 .464 5.34 4 3 5 1 0 0 30
Tom Evans 22 R 3B .252 .289 .325 .421 4.42 5 7 2 1 0 1 40
Rich Butler 23 L OF .248 .286 .375 .357 4.25 2 3 2 0 0 1 16
Julio Mosquera 25 R C .216 .250 .250 .375 3.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 8
Ruben Sierra 31 R OF .214 .208 .255 .354 2.93 4 4 5 1 0 0 51
Robert Perez 28 R OF .184 .192 .192 .346 2.02 5 4 6 2 0 0 78
Sandy Martinez 24 L C .169 .000 .333 .000 1.63 0 1 0 0 0 0 3
The Pitchers .127 .118 .211 .176 .80 0 1 0 0 0 0 19
Otis Nixon had just 2 triples in his 1027 plate appearances as a Jay:
Triples:
Shannon Stewart 7, Shawn Green 4, Juan Samuel 4, Joe Carter 4, Ed Sprague 4,
Carlos Delgado 3, Tomas Perez 2, Orlando Merced 2, Alex Gonzalez 2,
Carlos Garcia 2, Ruben Sierra 2, Felipe Crespo 1, Otis Nixon 1,
Charlie O'Brien 1, Jacob Brumfield 1, Robert Perez 1
Doubles (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 42, Joe Carter 30, Ed Sprague 29, Orlando Merced 23,
Alex Gonzalez 23, Shawn Green 22, Carlos Garcia 18, Charlie O'Brien 14
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 200, Joe Carter 183, Ed Sprague 166, Shawn Green 159,
Otis Nixon 157, Orlando Merced 145, Alex Gonzalez 136, Benito Santiago 100
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Joe Carter 471, Ed Sprague 390, Carlos Delgado 386, Alex Gonzalez 330,
Shawn Green 309, Otis Nixon 306, Carlos Garcia 276, Orlando Merced 273
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Mariano Duncan 6.5, Benito Santiago 4.7, Carlos Garcia 4.0,
Tilson Brito 3.1, Juan Samuel 2.8, Alex Gonzalez 2.8, Shawn Green 2.8,
Joe Carter 2.6, Jose Cruz 2.6, Tomas Perez 2.5, Jacob Brumfield 2.2,
Carlos Delgado 2.1, Charlie O'Brien 2.0, Ed Sprague 2.0,
Orlando Merced 1.3, Shannon Stewart 1.3, Otis Nixon 1.0
Games Played (leaders):
Joe Carter 157, Carlos Delgado 153, Ed Sprague 138, Shawn Green 135,
Alex Gonzalez 126, Otis Nixon 103, Carlos Garcia 103, Orlando Merced 98
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'97 Starting Pitchers
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The Rocket was worth every penny. Hentgen's post-Cy year was a good one and he
tied Clemens for the league lead in Innings Pitched. Chris Carpenter was the
Jays' best starter in September, but was rocked earlier in the year before he
re-found his toe-tap timing mechanism:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens 34 R 21 7 2.05 2.22 2.44 264.0 .192 .213 .265 .294 9 10.0
Pat Hentgen 28 R 15 10 3.68 3.95 4.08 264.0 .239 .251 .300 .401 31 5.5
Woody Williams 30 R 9 14 4.35 4.53 4.99 194.7 .257 .265 .324 .447 31 5.7
Robert Person 27 R 5 10 5.61 6.03 4.98 128.3 .272 .254 .335 .426 19 6.9
Chris Carpenter 22 R 3 7 5.09 6.09 6.26 81.3 .283 .317 .384 .456 7 6.1
Omar Daal was great in Syracuse and then very good for the Jays in September,
and he pitched well in '96 for the Expos, but a few bad months in early '97
apparently convinced both Canadian teams he wasn't a prospect, and the Jays
didn't protect him in the '97 expansion draft:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Omar Daal 25 L 1 1 4.00 4.33 5.43 27.0 .259 .306 .341 .459 3 9.3
Juan Guzman 30 R 3 6 4.95 6.30 4.90 60.0 .270 .219 .315 .450 14 7.8
Erik Hanson 32 R 0 0 7.80 7.80 5.32 15.0 .293 .259 .329 .469 3 10.8
Luis Andujar 24 R 0 6 6.48 8.10 7.88 50.0 .312 .347 .404 .550 9 5.0
Games Started:
Pat Hentgen 35, Roger Clemens 34, Woody Williams 31, Robert Person 22,
Chris Carpenter 13, Juan Guzman 13, Luis Andujar 8, Omar Daal 3,
Erik Hanson 2, Huck Flener 1
Complete Games:
Roger Clemens 9, Pat Hentgen 9, Chris Carpenter 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Roger Clemens 7.8, Pat Hentgen 7.5, Woody Williams 6.3, Chris Carpenter 5.8,
Robert Person 5.6, Erik Hanson 5.0, Juan Guzman 4.6, Omar Daal 3.0,
Luis Andujar 2.9
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'97 Relief Pitchers
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Spoljaric and Timlin were effective before moving to Seattle. Paul Quantrill
found new life as a reliever in '97. Dan Plesac had a good second-half:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Paul Spoljaric 26 L 0 3 3.19 3.19 3.18 48.0 .219 .212 .297 .315 3 8.1
Paul Quantrill 28 R 6 7 1.94 2.56 4.46 88.0 .225 .290 .323 .405 5 5.7
Mike Timlin 31 R 3 2 2.87 3.26 3.86 47.0 .227 .234 .294 .388 6 6.9
Dan Plesac 35 L 2 4 3.58 3.93 4.59 50.3 .245 .246 .314 .425 8 10.9
Tim Crabtree 27 R 3 3 7.08 7.08 8.21 40.7 .311 .358 .413 .558 7 5.8
Kelvim Escobar became the "closer" and appeared to have rusted out by the end
of the season due to lack of work. Marty Janzen was taken by Arizona in the
expansion draft:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Carlos Almanzar 23 R 0 1 2.70 2.70 2.23 3.3 .198 .095 .173 .380 1 10.8
Ken Robinson 26 R 0 0 2.70 2.70 2.23 3.3 .198 .095 .173 .380 1 10.8
Kelvim Escobar 21 R 3 2 2.90 3.48 4.14 31.0 .233 .240 .346 .326 1 10.5
Marty Janzen 24 R 2 1 3.60 3.96 4.95 25.0 .249 .243 .335 .423 4 6.1
Bill Risley 30 R 0 1 8.31 8.31 5.97 4.3 .303 .195 .287 .601 2 4.2
Huck Flener 28 L 0 1 9.87 9.87 11.63 17.3 .357 .446 .481 .655 3 4.7
Relief Appearances:
Paul Quantrill 77, Dan Plesac 73, Mike Timlin 38, Paul Spoljaric 37,
Tim Crabtree 37, Kelvim Escobar 27, Marty Janzen 12, Luis Andujar 9,
Huck Flener 7, Omar Daal 6, Carlos Almanzar 4, Ken Robinson 3,
Bill Risley 3, Chris Carpenter 1, Robert Person 1, Erik Hanson 1
Saves:
Kelvim Escobar 15, Mike Timlin 9, Paul Quantrill 5, Paul Spoljaric 3,
Tim Crabtree 2, Dan Plesac 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Huck Flener 2.2, Marty Janzen 2.1, Bill Risley 1.4, Paul Spoljaric 1.3,
Mike Timlin 1.2, Kelvim Escobar 1.1, Paul Quantrill 1.1, Ken Robinson 1.1,
Tim Crabtree 1.1, Carlos Almanzar .8, Dan Plesac .7
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Selected Former and Future Jays in '97
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Part-way through the '96 season, the Jays extended Joe Carter's contract for
an extra year ('97) at $6.5 million; John Olerud was already under contract for
'97 at the same amount, $6.5 million. Both players were long-time Jays (Olerud
since '89, Carter since '91). Their Equivalent Averages in the 4 years
*before* '97 were as follows:
John Olerud: .358 at age 24, .292 at age 25, .280 at age 26, .277 at age 27
Joe Carter: .273 at age 33, .279 at age 34, .251 at age 35, .253 at age 36
Carter would be 37 in 1997, Olerud just 28. Olerud was known as a good
defensive first-baseman, while Carter was not. In '96, Olerud was the Jays'
best hitter (highest EqA), despite it being an off-year for him.
On Dec 20/96, the Jays paid the New York Mets $5 million to take away John
Olerud and his contract, and to acquire Robert Person. Joe Carter started the
season at first-base. Olerud, in the prime of his career, put up a .304 EqA in
'97, about the same as the average of his previous 4 years. Carter, an aging
veteran in decline, put up just a .237 EqA.
In '97, Olerud produced 31 more Equivalent Runs than Carter with 101 fewer
Outs. An average team will produce another 17 Equivalent Runs with 101 extra
outs. So Olerud was worth about 48 more runs than Carter in '97, which
suggests the Jays would have won 5 more games in '97 if they had kept Olerud
and not re-signed Carter. Now, some argue Olerud wouldn't have achieved the
average of his previous 4 years unless his coaches changed; if so, the Jays
would still have been better off to eat the existing coaches' contracts than
re-sign Carter at $6.5m. Some also argue that Delgado would have been less
effective at DH, which might be true, though probably that would be on the
order of 1 win rather than 5. The good news is that first-base and DH are the
easiest positions at which to find a good hitter, so even though the Jays made
a bad choice for one of those positions in '97, losing Olerud is less likely to
lead to the kind of long-term damage you can get from, say, losing a young star
second-baseman:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Roberto Alomar BAL .304 .333 .392 .500 6.96 72 64 60 14 9 3 452
John Olerud NYM .304 .294 .392 .489 6.79 96 90 102 22 0 0 609
Mike Stanley BOS .301 .300 .391 .515 7.05 46 45 53 13 0 1 299
Mike Stanley NYY .297 .287 .392 .471 6.61 15 16 12 3 0 0 102
Jose Cruz SEA .284 .268 .316 .541 5.93 29 28 34 12 1 0 196
Fred McGriff ATL .275 .277 .354 .441 5.52 83 77 97 22 5 0 632
Derek Bell HOU .272 .276 .330 .438 4.99 72 67 71 15 15 7 533
Paul Molitor MIN .272 .305 .358 .435 5.50 74 63 89 10 11 4 583
Cecil Fielder NYY .268 .260 .352 .410 5.10 50 40 61 13 0 0 412
Jeff Kent SFG .265 .248 .306 .471 4.96 81 90 121 29 10 3 628
Mark Whiten NYY .263 .265 .355 .386 4.90 29 34 24 5 4 2 245
Pat Borders CLE .262 .296 .333 .428 4.77 20 17 15 4 0 2 168
Otis Nixon LAD .254 .274 .324 .349 4.14 21 30 18 1 12 2 188
Devon White FLA .252 .245 .327 .370 4.28 33 37 34 6 13 5 297
Glenallen Hill SFG .251 .261 .295 .435 4.34 48 47 64 11 7 4 417
Ruben Sierra CIN .236 .244 .292 .389 3.79 9 6 7 2 0 0 96
Mariano Duncan NYY .204 .244 .270 .308 2.60 13 16 13 1 2 1 178
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Randy Myers BAL 2 3 1.51 1.81 2.84 59.7 .193 .216 .288 .298 2 8.4
David Cone NYY 12 6 2.82 3.09 3.51 195.0 .222 .217 .302 .340 17 10.2
Jimmy Key BAL 16 10 3.43 3.81 4.54 212.3 .244 .257 .325 .404 24 6.0
Darren Hall LAD 3 2 2.30 2.47 4.78 54.7 .245 .271 .350 .382 3 6.4
Tod Stottlemyre STL 12 9 3.88 4.28 3.64 181.0 .246 .231 .299 .358 16 8.0
Mike Timlin SEA 3 2 3.86 4.56 4.23 25.7 .247 .276 .310 .402 2 3.2
David Wells NYY 16 10 4.21 4.50 4.54 218.0 .252 .277 .313 .426 24 6.4
Nerio Rodriguez BAL 2 1 4.91 6.14 4.13 22.0 .263 .250 .315 .381 2 4.5
Al Leiter FLA 11 9 4.34 4.64 4.46 151.3 .263 .236 .342 .362 13 7.9
Paul Spoljaric SEA 0 0 4.76 5.16 5.17 22.7 .265 .270 .376 .372 1 10.7
Tony Castillo CHW 4 4 4.91 6.93 5.37 62.3 .285 .293 .352 .435 6 6.1
Omar Daal MON 1 2 9.79 10.38 8.13 30.3 .340 .357 .421 .534 4 4.7
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1997 American League Leaders
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Ken Griffey Jr. won the MVP Award and was a good choice (centerfielder and 133
Equivalent Runs). Roger Clemens was 10th in the voting:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 340 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Frank Thomas CHW .357 .347 .459 .611 9.99 134 110 125 35 1 1 639
Edgar Martinez SEA .335 .330 .451 .554 8.95 121 104 108 28 2 4 661
Dave Justice CLE .333 .329 .423 .596 8.71 109 84 101 33 3 5 575
Jim Thome CLE .331 .286 .425 .579 8.61 114 104 102 40 1 1 616
Ken GriffeyJr SEA .328 .304 .382 .646 8.49 133 125 147 56 15 4 684
Mark McGwire OAK .321 .284 .382 .628 8.22 77 48 81 34 1 0 424
Bernie Williams NYY .319 .328 .412 .544 7.89 102 107 100 21 15 8 582
Manny Ramirez CLE .318 .328 .411 .538 7.79 110 99 88 26 2 3 640
Mo Vaughn BOS .317 .315 .411 .560 8.06 105 91 96 35 2 2 613
Matt Stairs OAK .313 .298 .386 .582 7.73 69 62 73 27 3 2 402
Tino Martinez NYY .312 .296 .375 .577 7.49 115 96 141 44 3 1 669
Paul O'Neill NYY .309 .324 .404 .514 7.32 103 89 117 21 10 7 628
Rusty Greer TEX .306 .321 .404 .531 7.54 108 112 87 26 9 5 684
Roberto Alomar BAL .304 .333 .392 .500 6.96 72 64 60 14 9 3 452
The Rocket won his 4th Cy Young Award. Pat Hentgen also made the leaderboard:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 115.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens TOR 21 7 2.05 2.22 2.44 264.0 .192 .213 .265 .294 9 10.0
Randy Johnson SEA 20 4 2.28 2.54 2.79 213.0 .203 .194 .269 .318 20 12.3
Justin Thompson DET 15 11 3.02 3.30 3.34 223.3 .221 .227 .284 .353 20 6.1
David Cone NYY 12 6 2.82 3.09 3.51 195.0 .222 .217 .302 .340 17 10.2
Andy Pettitte NYY 18 7 2.88 3.22 3.45 240.3 .222 .253 .302 .340 7 6.2
Mike Mussina BAL 15 8 3.20 3.49 3.60 224.7 .229 .235 .281 .384 27 8.7
Tom Gordon BOS 6 10 3.74 4.19 3.49 182.7 .232 .229 .308 .329 10 7.8
Wilson Alvarez CHW 9 8 3.03 3.77 3.48 145.7 .232 .232 .303 .338 9 6.8
Kevin Appier KAN 9 13 3.40 3.67 3.85 235.7 .234 .242 .300 .379 24 7.5
Ben McDonald MIL 8 7 4.06 4.60 3.64 133.0 .237 .240 .291 .374 13 7.4
Scott Erickson BAL 16 7 3.69 4.06 3.87 221.7 .239 .256 .306 .374 16 5.3
Pat Hentgen TOR 15 10 3.68 3.95 4.08 264.0 .239 .251 .300 .401 31 5.5
Brad Radke MIN 20 10 3.87 4.28 4.05 239.7 .240 .258 .294 .408 28 6.5
Jamie Moyer SEA 17 5 3.86 3.91 4.08 188.7 .240 .257 .299 .404 21 5.4
Randy Myers was said to be the MVP of the Orioles:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Doug Jones MIL 6 6 2.02 2.24 2.13 80.3 .184 .212 .236 .306 4 9.2
John Wetteland TEX 7 2 1.94 2.49 2.45 65.0 .191 .188 .259 .297 5 8.7
Randy Myers BAL 2 3 1.51 1.81 2.84 59.7 .193 .216 .288 .298 2 8.4
Jesse Orosco BAL 6 3 2.32 2.32 3.10 50.3 .207 .168 .291 .306 6 8.2
Mariano Rivera NYY 6 4 1.88 2.13 3.47 71.7 .207 .241 .293 .354 5 8.5
Mike Stanton NYY 6 1 2.57 2.57 3.15 66.7 .210 .208 .306 .296 3 9.5
Armando Benitez BAL 4 5 2.45 2.70 3.35 73.3 .215 .189 .305 .313 7 13.0
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Theory Stuff, 1997
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The Jays underachieved their Pythagorean record by 1 win:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) NYY 100-62 .616 | ( 1) CHW 4
( 2) BAL 94-68 .580 | ( 2) BAL 4
( 3) SEA 89-73 .548 | ( 3) MIL 4
( 4) CLE 85-76 .529 | ( 4) SEA 1
( 5) ANA 84-78 .520 | ( 5) CLE 1
( 6) BOS 80-82 .497 | ( 6) ANA 0
( 7) DET 80-82 .497 | ( 7) OAK 0
( 8) TEX 80-82 .491 | ( 8) TOR -1
( 9) TOR 77-85 .473 | ( 9) DET -1
(10) CHW 76-85 .469 | (10) BOS -2
(11) MIL 74-87 .461 | (11) TEX -3
(12) KAN 74-87 .457 | (12) NYY -4
(13) MIN 73-89 .450 | (13) MIN -5
(14) OAK 65-97 .403 | (14) KAN -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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National League, 1997
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Pittsburgh and Montreal both won more games than the higher-priced Jays:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Colorado 5.80 | ( 1) Atlanta 3.57 | ( 1) Atlanta 101-61 .623
( 2) San Diego 4.93 | ( 2) Los Angeles 3.98 | ( 2) Florida 92-70 .568
( 3)SanFrancisco 4.88 | ( 3) Houston 4.07 | ( 3)SanFrancisco 90-72 .556
( 4) Atlanta 4.86 | ( 4) Florida 4.16 | ( 4) Los Angeles 88-74 .543
( 5) Houston 4.79 | ( 5) NYMets 4.37 | ( 4) NYMets 88-74 .543
( 6) NYMets 4.79 | ( 6) St. Louis 4.38 | ( 6) Houston 84-78 .519
( 7) Florida 4.60 | ( 7) Montreal 4.60 | ( 7) Colorado 83-79 .512
( 8) Los Angeles 4.58 | ( 8) Cincinnati 4.75 | ( 8) Pittsburgh 79-83 .488
( 9) Pittsburgh 4.54 | ( 9) Pittsburgh 4.76 | ( 9) Montreal 78-84 .481
(10) Cubs 4.33 | (10) Cubs 4.78 | (10) Cincinnati 76-86 .469
(11) Montreal 4.30 | (11)SanFrancisco 4.94 | (10) San Diego 76-86 .469
(12) St. Louis 4.26 | (12)Philadelphia 5.32 | (12) St. Louis 73-89 .451
(13)Philadelphia 4.23 | (13) San Diego 5.53 | (13) Cubs 68-94 .420
(14) Cincinnati 4.04 | (14) Colorado 5.70 | (13)Philadelphia 68-94 .420
Avg 4.64 Avg 4.63 1144-1124
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HOU SDP LAD NYM SFG ATL FLA COL PIT STL MON CHC PHI CIN
.272 .271 .269 .268 .267 .266 .263 .259 .253 .253 .250 .249 .249 .246
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
ATL FLA LAD HOU STL MON COL PIT NYM CHC CIN SFG PHI SDP
.235 .253 .254 .255 .256 .257 .257 .258 .259 .260 .262 .269 .273 .284
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 14
COL PIT CHC MON PHI CIN ATL STL SFG FLA NYM SDP HOU LAD
26.0 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 .5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -4.0 -4.5 -4.5 -8.0 -9.0
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) ATL 103-59 .638 | ( 1) SFG 10
( 2) HOU 93-69 .574 | ( 2) CIN 7
( 3) LAD 91-71 .564 | ( 3) PHI 4
( 4) FLA 88-74 .546 | ( 4) FLA 4
( 5) NYM 88-74 .542 | ( 5) SDP 3
( 6) COL 82-80 .507 | ( 6) MON 2
( 7) SFG 80-82 .495 | ( 7) PIT 1
( 8) STL 79-83 .488 | ( 8) COL 1
( 9) PIT 78-84 .478 | ( 9) NYM 0
(10) MON 76-86 .469 | (10) ATL -2
(11) CHC 74-88 .455 | (11) LAD -3
(12) SDP 73-89 .448 | (12) CHC -6
(13) CIN 69-93 .427 | (13) STL -6
(14) PHI 64-98 .397 | (14) HOU -9
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Canadian Larry Walker won the NL MVP and amazingly had better raw numbers on
the road than at Coors. Still, Mike Piazza, who played in the toughest park
for hitters, and who played catcher too, probably should have won the MVP. A
former Jay also quietly made the leaderboard:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 340 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mike Piazza LAD .356 .362 .432 .638 9.67 137 104 124 40 5 1 625
Barry Bonds SFG .341 .291 .443 .585 9.29 133 123 101 40 37 8 677
Jeff Bagwell HOU .339 .286 .417 .592 8.59 140 109 135 43 31 10 693
Larry Walker COL .330 .366 .443 .720 11.07 117 143 130 49 33 8 646
Ray Lankford STL .325 .295 .414 .585 8.32 104 94 98 31 21 11 560
Tony Gwynn SDP .325 .372 .414 .547 8.03 115 97 119 17 12 5 635
Bill Spiers HOU .324 .320 .438 .481 7.73 62 51 48 4 10 5 352
Todd Hundley NYM .315 .273 .394 .549 7.44 87 78 86 30 2 3 500
Craig Biggio HOU .314 .309 .391 .501 7.13 123 146 81 22 47 10 703
Ken Caminiti SDP .308 .290 .390 .508 7.05 93 92 90 26 11 2 566
Raul Mondesi LAD .307 .310 .356 .541 6.63 116 95 87 30 32 15 660
J.T. Snow SFG .304 .281 .391 .510 6.97 100 81 104 28 6 4 627
John Olerud NYM .304 .294 .392 .489 6.79 96 90 102 22 0 0 609
Wally Joyner SDP .302 .327 .395 .486 6.70 79 59 83 13 3 5 506
Pedro Martinez won the Cy Young Award:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 115.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pedro Martinez MON 17 8 1.90 2.42 2.19 241.3 .193 .187 .246 .289 16 11.4
Greg Maddux ATL 19 4 2.20 2.24 2.46 232.7 .200 .232 .249 .322 9 6.8
Curt Schilling PHI 17 11 2.97 3.40 3.13 254.3 .224 .223 .268 .356 25 11.3
Kevin Brown FLA 16 8 2.69 2.92 3.26 237.3 .225 .239 .292 .335 10 7.8
Denny Neagle ATL 20 5 2.97 3.36 3.21 233.3 .227 .235 .276 .354 18 6.6
Tom Glavine ATL 14 7 2.96 3.23 3.33 240.0 .227 .224 .287 .346 20 5.7
Andy Benes STL 10 7 3.10 3.25 3.23 177.0 .228 .228 .294 .327 9 8.9
Rick Reed NYM 13 9 2.89 3.28 3.23 208.3 .230 .238 .268 .369 19 4.9
Alan Benes STL 9 9 2.89 3.34 3.43 161.7 .230 .217 .298 .336 13 8.9
Darryl Kile HOU 19 7 2.57 3.06 3.34 255.7 .231 .222 .293 .337 19 7.2
Ismael Valdes LAD 10 11 2.65 3.11 3.30 196.7 .232 .234 .280 .356 16 6.4
John Smoltz ATL 15 12 3.02 3.41 3.56 256.0 .233 .243 .289 .368 21 8.5
Garr Stephenson PHI 8 6 3.15 3.46 3.75 117.0 .233 .238 .299 .370 11 6.2
Shawn Estes SFG 19 5 3.18 3.58 3.57 201.0 .236 .220 .314 .324 12 8.1
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jeff Shaw CIN 4 2 2.38 2.47 2.73 94.7 .207 .226 .252 .342 7 7.0
Antonio Osuna LAD 3 4 2.19 2.19 2.99 61.7 .215 .207 .270 .337 6 9.9
Trevor Hoffman SDP 6 4 2.66 2.77 2.95 81.3 .219 .203 .264 .342 9 12.3
John Franco NYM 5 3 2.55 2.70 3.06 60.0 .220 .223 .287 .320 3 8.0
Tom Martin HOU 5 3 2.09 2.09 3.76 56.0 .225 .246 .320 .338 2 5.8
Steve Reed COL 4 6 4.04 4.04 4.06 62.3 .226 .216 .300 .395 10 6.2
Bob Patterson CHC 1 6 3.34 3.49 3.24 59.3 .226 .217 .252 .390 9 8.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .996 in 1997
Age: as of July 1, 1997
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1997, the Jays scored 654 runs, allowed 694 runs, and
pitched 1441.7 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.98 in 1997)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.98 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1997 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1997, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.98
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.996*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.98 in 1997),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.8/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1997 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 1997
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .067*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1997
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .48*SB in 1997
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .999 in 1997
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.64 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1997 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1997, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.64
Pitching Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.10*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.999*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = National League average runs per 9 IP (4.64 in 1997),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1997 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .12*D in 1997
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .085*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1997
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .46*SB in 1997
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/
and is unofficial.
Games by position taken from STATS Major League Handbook 1998.
Also, park factors are derived from data in STATS.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Oct 17
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.