"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1996 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1996 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Olerud 101, Joe Carter 41, Carlos Delgado 27,
Juan Samuel 17, Felipe Crespo 2
Second Base: Tomas Perez 75, Domingo Cedeno 62, Tilson Brito 18,
Felipe Crespo 10, Miguel Cairo 9
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez 147, Tomas Perez 5, Domingo Cedeno 5,
Tilson Brito 5
Third Base: Ed Sprague 148, Tomas Perez 11, Domingo Cedeno 6,
Felipe Crespo 6, Mike Huff 3
Left Field: Joe Carter 115, Robert Perez 59, Jacob Brumfield 18,
Juan Samuel 8, Mike Huff 1
Center Field: Otis Nixon 125, Jacob Brumfield 39, Shannon Stewart 6,
Juan Samuel 5, Mike Huff 4, Shawn Green 2
Right Field: Shawn Green 127, Jacob Brumfield 37, Robert Perez 25,
Juan Samuel 15, Mike Huff 4
Catcher: Charlie O'Brien 105, Sandy Martinez 75, Julio Mosquera 8
Starting Pitcher: Pat Hentgen 35, Erik Hanson 35, Juan Guzman 27,
Paul Quantrill 20, Marty Janzen 11, Huck Flener 11,
Woody Williams 10, Frank Viola 6, Jeff Ware 4,
Luis Andujar 2, Scott Brow 1
Relief Pitcher: Mike Timlin 59, Tim Crabtree 53, Tony Castillo 40,
Paul Spoljaric 28, Bill Risley 25, Brian Bohanon 20,
Paul Quantrill 18, Scott Brow 17, Giovanni Carrara 11,
Dane Johnson 10, Jeff Ware 9, Huck Flener 4,
Marty Janzen 4, Jose Silva 2, Woody Williams 2,
Luis Andujar 1
Designated Hitter: Carlos Delgado 108, Juan Samuel 24, Ed Sprague 10,
Joe Carter 15, John Olerud 15, Jacob Brumfield 5,
Robert Perez 2, Tilson Brito 2, Shawn Green 1
Manager: Cito Gaston
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1996 in Context
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League offense ballooned to 5.42 runs per 9 innings, but SkyDome fans might not
have realized. Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen, ERA-leader Juan Guzman and a
strong bullpen kept the rebuilding Jays from finishing last again. In the
playoffs, the 99-win Indians lost in the first round to the wildcard Orioles,
and the 92-win Yankees beat the Rangers, O's and Braves to become the champs:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Seattle 6.24 | ( 1) Cleveland 4.77 | ( 1) Cleveland 99-62 .615
( 2) Cleveland 5.90 | ( 2) Kansas City 4.88 | ( 2) NYYankees 92-70 .568
( 3) Baltimore 5.82 | ( 3) White Sox 4.89 | ( 3) Texas 90-72 .556
( 4) Texas 5.76 | ( 4) NYYankees 4.92 | ( 4) Baltimore 88-74 .543
( 5) Boston 5.73 | ( 5) Texas 4.96 | ( 5) Seattle 85-76 .528
( 6) Milwaukee 5.56 | ( 6) TORONTO 5.04 | ( 6) White Sox 85-77 .525
( 7) White Sox 5.53 | ( 7) Baltimore 5.53 | ( 6) Boston 85-77 .525
( 8) Minnesota 5.48 | ( 8) Oakland 5.56 | ( 8) Milwaukee 80-82 .494
( 9) NYYankees 5.44 | ( 9) Milwaukee 5.59 | ( 9) Oakland 78-84 .481
(10) Oakland 5.32 | (10) Minnesota 5.63 | ( 9) Minnesota 78-84 .481
(11) Detroit 4.92 | (11) Seattle 5.63 | (11) Kansas City 75-86 .466
(12) TORONTO 4.77 | (12) Boston 5.69 | (12) TORONTO 74-88 .457
(13) California 4.77 | (13) California 5.90 | (13) California 70-91 .435
(14) Kansas City 4.63 | (14) Detroit 6.93 | (14) Detroit 53-109 .327
Avg 5.42 Avg 5.42 1132-1132
Correcting the above for park factor, the '96 Jays had the worst offense in the
league. The World Series champs had just an average offense during the season
(an EqA of .260 is average):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEA CLE BAL CHW BOS OAK TEX NYY MIN MIL DET CAL KAN TOR
.276 .270 .269 .268 .263 .262 .260 .259 .259 .258 .250 .249 .247 .247
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '96 Jays had better-than-average
pitching and defense, not much different from that of the champs:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TEX CLE NYY KAN TOR CHW MIL MIN BOS BAL SEA OAK CAL DET
.245 .248 .249 .252 .252 .255 .258 .261 .262 .264 .265 .267 .271 .287
SkyDome was essentially a neutral park. Note that just 2 years of data are
used for the below park factors, instead of the normal 3 (I may improve this
in a future version of this article):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TEX MIL BOS MIN NYY TOR DET SEA CLE BAL CAL KAN OAK CHW
6.4 4.9 2.9 2.4 1.4 .4 -.1 -.6 -1.1 -1.6 -2.1 -2.6 -4.1 -5.6
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1995-1996 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'96 Hitters
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John Olerud was the team's best hitter (.277 EqA), but wasn't played every day.
Joe Carter had his 2nd-consecutive subpar season (.253 EqA), but had his
contract extended for another year at $6.5 million. Ed Sprague in his career
year had just a .263 EqA and just 81 Equivalent Runs, but many still say it was
a great year instead of an average year. Carlos Delgado replaced Paul Molitor
in his first full year in the majors. On May 15/96, the Jays traded 1B D.J.
Boston to the Pirates for Jacob Brumfield, who on a rebuilding team probably
shouldn't have taken as much playing time from Shawn Green:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
John Olerud 27 L 1B .277 .274 .369 .472 6.13 60 59 61 18 1 0 458
Carlos Delgado 24 L DH .273 .270 .348 .490 5.89 71 68 92 25 0 0 546
Ed Sprague 28 R 3B .263 .247 .316 .496 5.38 81 88 101 36 0 0 651
Shawn Green 23 L RF .259 .280 .332 .448 5.15 53 52 45 11 5 1 455
Otis Nixon 37 S CF .254 .286 .376 .327 4.92 61 87 29 1 54 13 567
Joe Carter 36 R LF .253 .253 .302 .475 4.87 78 84 107 30 7 6 669
Jacob Brumfield 31 R OF .253 .256 .310 .448 4.86 38 52 52 12 12 3 332
Charlie O'Brien 36 R C .237 .238 .300 .410 4.15 35 33 44 13 0 1 353
Alex Gonzalez 23 R SS .233 .235 .295 .391 3.96 55 64 64 14 16 6 572
The Jays weren't able to replace Alomar's bat at 2nd-base:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Juan Samuel 35 R OF .257 .255 .310 .457 5.06 24 34 26 8 9 1 203
Robert Perez 27 R OF .256 .327 .352 .406 5.03 23 30 21 2 3 0 210
Domingo Cedeno 27 S 2B .228 .280 .316 .351 3.73 26 44 17 2 5 3 297
Tomas Perez 22 S 2B .220 .251 .309 .332 3.43 26 24 19 1 1 2 320
Sandy Martinez 23 L C .208 .227 .278 .332 2.99 18 17 18 3 0 0 245
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Tilson Brito 24 R 2B .234 .238 .322 .363 4.01 8 10 7 1 1 1 90
Felipe Crespo 23 S 2B .226 .184 .344 .265 3.67 5 6 4 0 1 0 61
Miguel Cairo 22 R 2B .197 .222 .276 .296 2.60 2 5 1 0 0 0 29
Julio Mosquera 24 R C .172 .227 .227 .318 1.85 1 2 2 0 0 1 22
Shannon Stewart 22 R OF .163 .176 .222 .235 1.62 1 2 2 0 1 0 18
Mike Huff 32 R OF .140 .172 .200 .241 1.11 1 5 0 0 0 0 30
Speedster Otis Nixon hit just one triple:
Triples:
Joe Carter 7, Alex Gonzalez 5, Tomas Perez 4, Shawn Green 3,
Sandy Martinez 3, Juan Samuel 3, Jacob Brumfield 2, Domingo Cedeno 2,
Carlos Delgado 2, Ed Sprague 2, Mike Huff 1, Otis Nixon 1
Doubles (leaders):
Joe Carter 35, Ed Sprague 35, Shawn Green 32, Alex Gonzalez 30,
Carlos Delgado 28, John Olerud 25, Jacob Brumfield 19, Charlie O'Brien 17
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Otis Nixon 213, Ed Sprague 206, Joe Carter 202, Carlos Delgado 190,
Alex Gonzalez 169, John Olerud 169, Shawn Green 151, Charlie O'Brien 106
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Joe Carter 473, Ed Sprague 445, Alex Gonzalez 409, Otis Nixon 367,
Carlos Delgado 356, Shawn Green 305, John Olerud 289, Charlie O'Brien 248
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Juan Samuel 4.3, Domingo Cedeno 4.0, Sandy Martinez 3.6, Alex Gonzalez 2.8,
Ed Sprague 2.4, Jacob Brumfield 2.4, Joe Carter 2.4, Carlos Delgado 2.4,
Charlie O'Brien 2.3, Shawn Green 2.3, Robert Perez 2.1, Tilson Brito 1.8,
Tomas Perez 1.2, Otis Nixon 1.0, John Olerud .6
Games Played (leaders):
Ed Sprague 159, Joe Carter 157, Alex Gonzalez 147, Carlos Delgado 138,
Shawn Green 132, Otis Nixon 125, John Olerud 125, Charlie O'Brien 109
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'96 Starting Pitchers
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Pat Hentgen had a strong 2nd-half and won the Cy Young Award. Juan Guzman
actually won the ERA-title, but missed too many starts to be considered for the
Cy. Erik Hanson was signed to a big contract to be the Jays' ace, but was a
below-average pitcher (an EqA of .260 is average). Before the season, the Jays
picked up Paul Quantrill from the Phillies for IF Howard Battle and LHP Ricardo
Jordan, adding some Canadian content to the rotation. Marty Janzen looked good
at first but later faltered in his rookie year:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Juan Guzman 29 R 11 8 2.93 3.18 3.52 187.7 .214 .229 .284 .369 20 7.9
Pat Hentgen 27 R 20 10 3.22 3.49 3.77 265.7 .221 .241 .307 .360 20 6.0
Erik Hanson 31 R 13 17 5.41 5.86 5.70 214.7 .267 .287 .363 .446 26 6.5
Paul Quantrill 27 R 5 14 5.43 5.89 6.80 134.3 .277 .312 .370 .528 27 5.8
Marty Janzen 23 R 4 6 7.33 7.94 7.39 73.7 .298 .315 .391 .542 16 5.7
On Aug 22/96, the Jays traded Tony Castillo and Domingo Cedeno to the White Sox
for RHP Luis Andujar and RHP Allen Halley:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Huck Flener 27 L 3 2 4.58 4.96 4.85 70.7 .250 .255 .337 .414 9 5.6
Luis Andujar 23 R 1 1 5.02 5.44 4.91 14.3 .255 .255 .268 .521 4 3.1
Woody Williams 29 R 4 5 4.73 5.13 5.22 59.0 .255 .278 .339 .447 8 6.6
Frank Viola 36 L 1 3 7.71 8.36 8.42 30.3 .309 .336 .430 .553 6 5.3
Games Started:
Pat Hentgen 35, Erik Hanson 35, Juan Guzman 27, Paul Quantrill 20,
Marty Janzen 11, Huck Flener 11, Woody Williams 10, Frank Viola 6,
Jeff Ware 4, Luis Andujar 2, Scott Brow 1
Hentgen's endurance stats (10 Complete Games, 3 Shutouts) are probably what
gave him the edge over Pettitte (2 Complete Games, 0 Shutouts) in the voters'
minds:
Complete Games:
Pat Hentgen 10, Juan Guzman 4, Erik Hanson 4, Woody Williams 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Pat Hentgen 7.6, Juan Guzman 7.0, Erik Hanson 6.1, Frank Viola 5.1,
Woody Williams 4.9, Marty Janzen 4.9, Luis Andujar 4.8, Huck Flener 4.7,
Paul Quantrill 3.5
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'96 Relief Pitchers
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The '96 pen was excellent:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tim Crabtree 26 R 5 3 2.54 2.75 3.46 67.3 .208 .237 .299 .343 4 7.6
Mike Timlin 30 R 1 6 3.65 3.96 3.28 56.7 .221 .227 .289 .340 4 8.3
Paul Spoljaric 25 L 2 2 3.08 3.34 4.30 38.0 .226 .219 .314 .396 6 9.0
Bill Risley 29 R 0 1 3.89 4.22 4.68 41.7 .240 .219 .330 .403 7 6.3
Tony Castillo 33 L 2 3 4.23 4.58 4.44 72.3 .241 .261 .311 .419 9 6.0
Not counting the mopup men:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dane Johnson 33 R 0 0 3.00 3.25 2.07 9.0 .195 .167 .286 .210 0 7.0
Scott Brow 27 R 1 0 5.59 6.06 6.43 38.7 .275 .292 .391 .458 5 5.4
Brian Bohanon 27 L 0 1 7.77 8.42 7.81 22.0 .305 .303 .426 .506 4 7.0
Jeff Ware 25 R 1 5 9.09 9.85 7.28 32.7 .312 .276 .418 .477 6 3.0
Giovanni Carrara 28 R 0 1 11.40 12.36 10.39 15.0 .349 .354 .455 .657 5 6.0
Jose Silva 22 R 0 0 13.50 14.63 14.12 2.0 .384 .455 .455 .823 1 .0
Relief Appearances:
Mike Timlin 59, Tim Crabtree 53, Tony Castillo 40, Paul Spoljaric 28,
Bill Risley 25, Brian Bohanon 20, Paul Quantrill 18, Scott Brow 17,
Giovanni Carrara 11, Dane Johnson 10, Jeff Ware 9, Huck Flener 4,
Marty Janzen 4, Jose Silva 2, Woody Williams 2, Luis Andujar 1
Saves:
Mike Timlin 31, Brian Bohanon 1, Tony Castillo 1, Tim Crabtree 1,
Paul Spoljaric 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jeff Ware 2.5, Scott Brow 2.1, Tony Castillo 1.8, Bill Risley 1.7,
Giovanni Carrara 1.4, Paul Spoljaric 1.4, Tim Crabtree 1.3,
Brian Bohanon 1.1, Jose Silva 1.0, Mike Timlin 1.0, Dane Johnson .9
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1996 American League Leaders
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Mark McGwire hit 52 home runs in 130 games, which projects to 64 in 162 games,
and Oakland's park was tougher on home run hitters than St. Louis'. Juan
Gonzalez won the MVP Award with just a .303 EqA and just 96 Equivalent Runs.
Shortstop Alex Rodriguez, who probably should have won the award, tied for 2nd
with Albert Belle. Griffey was 4th, McGwire 7th, Thomas 8th, Paul Molitor
13th, Roberto Alomar 20th. No Jays got any votes in the MVP voting:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 359 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mark McGwire OAK 1B .362 .312 .460 .730 11.37 117 104 113 52 0 0 539
Frank Thomas CHW 1B .349 .349 .461 .626 10.20 126 110 134 40 1 1 636
Edgar Martinez SEA DH .335 .327 .460 .595 9.70 112 121 103 26 3 3 622
Jim Thome CLE 3B .333 .311 .446 .612 9.52 114 122 116 38 2 2 628
Alex Rodriguez SEA SS .327 .358 .415 .631 9.16 121 141 123 36 15 4 660
Albert Belle CLE OF .323 .311 .408 .623 8.85 126 124 148 48 11 0 701
Ken Griffey SEA OF .318 .303 .390 .628 8.52 110 125 140 49 16 1 623
Brady Anderson BAL OF .315 .297 .379 .637 8.23 117 117 110 50 21 8 655
Mo Vaughn BOS 1B .312 .326 .414 .583 8.44 119 118 143 44 2 0 730
Bob Higginson DET OF .312 .320 .408 .577 8.19 84 75 81 26 6 3 505
Manny Ramirez CLE OF .311 .309 .402 .582 8.05 106 94 112 33 8 5 635
Chuck Knoblauch MIN 2B .311 .341 .436 .517 8.28 108 140 72 13 45 14 676
Roberto Alomar BAL 2B .309 .328 .417 .527 7.86 108 132 94 22 17 6 678
Jose Canseco BOS DH .306 .289 .395 .589 8.01 68 68 82 28 3 1 423
Pat Hentgen was clearly the best pitcher in the league and won the Cy Young
Award, though Andy Pettitte was a close 2nd in the voting. On Sept 18/96,
Roger Clemens struck out 20 for the 2nd time, then went out and looked for a
team with which he could win a World Series:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 119.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Juan Guzman TOR 11 8 2.93 3.18 3.52 187.7 .214 .229 .284 .369 20 7.9
Pat Hentgen TOR 20 10 3.22 3.49 3.77 265.7 .221 .241 .307 .360 20 6.0
Roger Clemens BOS 10 13 3.63 3.93 4.01 242.7 .227 .240 .320 .360 19 9.5
Ken Hill TEX 16 10 3.63 3.93 4.37 250.7 .228 .261 .328 .384 19 6.1
Charles Nagy CLE 17 5 3.41 3.70 4.10 222.0 .229 .257 .307 .393 21 6.8
Kevin Appier KAN 14 11 3.62 3.92 3.87 211.3 .230 .243 .309 .366 17 8.8
Ben McDonald MIL 12 10 3.90 4.23 4.60 221.3 .235 .267 .321 .418 25 5.9
Alex Fernandez CHW 16 10 3.45 3.74 4.32 258.0 .237 .254 .305 .416 34 7.0
Andy Pettitte NYY 21 8 3.87 4.19 4.63 221.0 .238 .268 .325 .413 23 6.6
Brad Radke MIN 11 16 4.46 4.83 4.72 232.0 .245 .260 .305 .452 40 5.7
Tim Belcher KAN 15 11 3.92 4.25 4.93 238.7 .246 .280 .329 .435 28 4.3
Chuck Finley CAL 15 16 4.16 4.51 4.78 238.0 .247 .264 .333 .414 27 8.1
Ariel Prieto OAK 6 7 4.15 4.50 4.68 125.7 .248 .269 .342 .390 9 5.4
Jimmy Key NYY 12 11 4.68 5.07 4.70 169.3 .248 .263 .324 .421 21 6.2
Mariano Rivera was 3rd in the Cy Young voting. Tim Crabtree made the list of
top relievers:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mariano Rivera NYY 8 3 2.09 2.27 2.01 107.7 .178 .193 .260 .251 1 10.9
Troy Percival CAL 0 2 2.31 2.50 2.24 74.0 .189 .153 .247 .282 8 12.2
R Hernandez CHW 6 5 1.91 2.07 2.98 84.7 .196 .214 .301 .288 2 9.0
Eric Plunk CLE 3 2 2.43 2.63 3.14 77.7 .203 .204 .291 .317 6 9.8
Tim Crabtree TOR 5 3 2.54 2.75 3.46 67.3 .208 .237 .299 .343 4 7.6
Mike Trombley MIN 5 1 3.01 3.26 3.39 68.7 .212 .239 .307 .324 2 7.5
Graeme Lloyd MIL 2 4 2.82 3.06 3.91 51.0 .214 .254 .314 .363 3 4.2
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Theory Stuff, 1996
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The Jays underachieved their Pythagorean record by 3 wins:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) CLE 96-65 .596 | ( 1) CAL 5
( 2) TEX 92-70 .568 | ( 2) NYY 4
( 3) CHW 90-72 .556 | ( 3) BOS 3
( 4) SEA 88-73 .547 | ( 4) BAL 3
( 5) NYY 88-74 .546 | ( 5) CLE 3
( 6) BAL 85-77 .523 | ( 6) OAK 0
( 7) BOS 82-80 .503 | ( 7) MIL -1
( 8) MIL 81-81 .497 | ( 8) MIN -1
( 9) MIN 79-83 .488 | ( 9) KAN -2
(10) OAK 78-84 .480 | (10) TEX -2
(11) KAN 77-84 .476 | (11) TOR -3
(12) TOR 77-85 .475 | (12) SEA -3
(13) CAL 65-96 .404 | (13) DET -3
(14) DET 56-106 .348 | (14) CHW -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.004 in 1996
Age: as of July 1, 1996
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1996, the Jays scored 766 runs, allowed 809 runs, and
pitched 1445.7 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.42 in 1996)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1995-1996 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.42 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1996 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1996, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.42
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is not listed in my stats
source; in 1996, estimated as 1.08*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.08*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.004*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.42 in 1996),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1996 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 1996
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .063*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1996
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .44*SB in 1996
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Outfield games by position taken from STATS Major League Handbook 1997.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Access count for this page:
Last Updated: 1998 Sept 19
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.