"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1995 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1995 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Olerud 133, Joe Carter 7, Ed Sprague 7,
Carlos Delgado 4
Second Base: Roberto Alomar 128, Domingo Cedeno 20, Tomas Perez 7
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez 97, Domingo Cedeno 30, Tomas Perez 31
Third Base: Ed Sprague 139, Alex Gonzalez 9, Howard Battle 6,
Domingo Cedeno 1, Tomas Perez 1
Outfield: Joe Carter 128, Shawn Green 109, Devon White 99,
Candy Maldonado 58, Mike Huff 55, Carlos Delgado 17,
Robert Perez 15, Shannon Stewart 12
Catcher: Lance Parrish 67, Sandy Martinez 61, Randy Knorr 45
Starting Pitcher: Pat Hentgen 30, Al Leiter 28, Juan Guzman 24,
David Cone 17, Danny Darwin 11, Edwin Hurtado 10,
Paul Menhart 9, Giovanni Carrara 7, Jeff Ware 5,
Woody Williams 3
Relief Pitcher: Tony Castillo 55, Tim Crabtree 31, Mike Timlin 31,
Danny Cox 24, Ken Robinson 21, Woody Williams 20,
Jimmy Rogers 19, Darren Hall 17, Ricardo Jordan 15,
Paul Menhart 12, Giovanni Carrara 5, Brad Cornett 5,
Edwin Hurtado 4, Duane Ward 4, Danny Darwin 2
Designated Hitter: Paul Molitor 129, Carlos Delgado 7, Joe Carter 5,
Alex Gonzalez 3, Ed Sprague 2, Lance Parrish 1,
Candy Maldonado 1, Roberto Alomar 1, Howard Battle 1
Manager: Cito Gaston
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1995 in Context
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On Mar 31/95, the U.S. courts ruled that the owners couldn't implement a salary
cap unilaterally, so the players ended their strike and a season shortened by
18 games was started 3 weeks later; however, there was still no new labour
agreement by the end of the year. In later years, some fans would ask how the
Jays could expect to win after losing White, Alomar, Molitor, Cone and Leiter,
but all of these players were still on the '95 team which tied for the worst
record in baseball. In the playoffs, the Mariners beat the Yankees, the
Indians beat the Red Sox and the Mariners, but the Braves beat everybody to
officially unseat the Jays as World Champions:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Cleveland 5.81 | ( 1) Cleveland 4.20 | ( 1) Cleveland 100-44 .694
( 2) California 5.61 | ( 2) Baltimore 4.55 | ( 2) Boston 86-58 .597
( 3) Seattle 5.56 | ( 3) NYYankees 4.82 | ( 3) NYYankees 79-65 .549
( 4) Boston 5.51 | ( 4) Kansas City 4.83 | ( 4) Seattle 79-66 .545
( 5) White Sox 5.29 | ( 5) Boston 4.86 | ( 5) California 78-67 .538
( 6) NYYankees 5.25 | ( 6) California 4.88 | ( 6) Texas 74-70 .514
( 7) Milwaukee 5.18 | ( 7) Seattle 4.94 | ( 7) Baltimore 71-73 .493
( 8) Oakland 5.16 | ( 8) Texas 5.04 | ( 8) Kansas City 70-74 .486
( 9) Baltimore 5.00 | ( 9) Milwaukee 5.23 | ( 9) White Sox 68-76 .472
(10) Minnesota 4.97 | (10) White Sox 5.31 | (10) Oakland 67-77 .465
(11) Texas 4.84 | (11) Oakland 5.38 | (11) Milwaukee 65-79 .451
(12) Detroit 4.62 | (12) TORONTO 5.41 | (12) Detroit 60-84 .417
(13) TORONTO 4.47 | (13) Detroit 5.96 | (13) TORONTO 56-88 .389
(14) Kansas City 4.40 | (14) Minnesota 6.29 | (13) Minnesota 56-88 .389
Avg 5.12 Avg 5.12 1009-1009
Correcting the above for park factor, the WAMCO lineup was 2nd-worst in the
league in its final year together, in part because all 5 WAMCO members
underachieved, and also because most of the supporting cast was weak:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CLE CAL CHW SEA OAK BOS NYY MIN BAL MIL TEX DET TOR KAN
.273 .271 .269 .268 .266 .265 .264 .257 .256 .255 .252 .250 .247 .243
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the pitching & defense was worse than
average because of bad years by Hentgen and Guzman, though it was not as bad as
the hitting (7 points worse than the average of .260 instead of 13):
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CLE BAL BOS KAN SEA NYY CAL MIL TEX TOR CHW OAK DET MIN
.240 .247 .252 .253 .256 .256 .256 .256 .257 .267 .270 .271 .276 .282
SkyDome was essentially a neutral ballpark in the mid-90's:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 4 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 13 13
MIL BOS TEX BAL KAN SEA CLE MIN DET CAL TOR NYY CHW OAK
5.8 2.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 .8 .3 .3 -.2 -.7 -.7 -1.7 -5.2 -5.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1994-1996 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'95 Hitters
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The WAMCO lineup was still acclaimed as a star-studded lineup, but some of the
stars were fading. Paul Molitor's Equivalent Average dropped 45 points from
the previous year and Joe Carter's dropped 28 points. Roberto Alomar was the
team's best hitter and .281 is especially valuable from a second-baseman, but
the Jays didn't offer Alomar a contract extension before or during the season
because of the labour uncertainty, and he left for Baltimore after the last-
place finish, a huge loss felt for years afterward, whatever some thought of
his public relation skills. Devon White left for Florida after the season and
Molitor left for Minnesota. Rookies Shawn Green and Alex Gonzalez hit fine for
their positions in their first full years:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Roberto Alomar 27 S 2B .281 .300 .358 .449 5.88 77 71 66 13 30 3 564
John Olerud 26 L 1B .280 .291 .394 .404 5.86 74 72 54 8 0 0 576
Shawn Green 22 L RF .275 .288 .323 .509 5.61 55 52 54 15 1 2 399
Paul Molitor 38 R DH .268 .270 .346 .423 5.24 72 63 60 15 12 0 586
Devon White 32 S CF .262 .283 .329 .431 4.96 55 61 53 10 11 2 456
Ed Sprague 27 R 3B .251 .244 .320 .407 4.47 63 77 74 18 0 0 579
Joe Carter 35 R LF .251 .253 .299 .428 4.45 67 70 76 25 12 1 595
Alex Gonzalez 22 R SS .250 .243 .324 .398 4.41 45 51 42 10 4 4 411
Sandy Martinez 22 L C .210 .241 .268 .335 2.84 15 12 25 2 0 0 198
The Jays weren't deep in middle infielders or catchers:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Candy Maldonado 34 R OF .286 .269 .368 .481 6.15 26 22 25 7 1 1 185
Mike Huff 31 R OF .241 .232 .338 .333 4.01 15 14 9 1 1 1 160
Domingo Cedeno 26 S SS .222 .236 .281 .360 3.28 15 18 14 4 0 1 171
Tomas Perez 21 S SS .217 .245 .295 .327 3.10 8 12 8 1 0 1 105
Randy Knorr 26 R C .216 .212 .273 .341 3.05 11 18 16 3 0 0 143
Lance Parrish 39 R C .206 .202 .264 .320 2.72 14 15 22 4 0 0 193
After the season, the Jays traded Howard Battle and LHP Ricardo Jordan to the
Phillies for Canadian RHP Paul Quantill. Delgado, Stewart and Perez had super
years in the minors but didn't produce in limited chances with the Jays:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Howard Battle 23 R 3B .233 .200 .368 .200 3.68 2 3 0 0 1 0 19
Shannon Stewart 21 R OF .198 .211 .302 .211 2.45 3 2 1 0 2 0 43
Carlos Delgado 23 L OF .178 .165 .216 .297 1.89 5 7 11 3 0 0 97
Robert Perez 26 R OF .159 .188 .188 .292 1.41 2 2 3 1 0 0 48
Triples:
Roberto Alomar 7, Devon White 5, Alex Gonzalez 4, Shawn Green 4,
Paul Molitor 2, Ed Sprague 2, Domingo Cedeno 1, Mike Huff 1, Tomas Perez 1
Doubles (leaders):
John Olerud 32, Shawn Green 31, Paul Molitor 31, Ed Sprague 27,
Roberto Alomar 24, Joe Carter 23, Devon White 23, Alex Gonzalez 19
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
John Olerud 227, Paul Molitor 203, Roberto Alomar 202, Ed Sprague 185,
Joe Carter 178, Devon White 150, Alex Gonzalez 133, Shawn Green 129
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Joe Carter 418, Ed Sprague 394, Paul Molitor 383, Roberto Alomar 365,
John Olerud 349, Devon White 308, Alex Gonzalez 282, Shawn Green 272
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Sandy Martinez 6.4, Carlos Delgado 4.3, Domingo Cedeno 3.5,
Lance Parrish 3.5, Shawn Green 3.4, Devon White 3.3, Alex Gonzalez 2.6,
Tomas Perez 2.6, Randy Knorr 2.5, Joe Carter 2.4, Candy Maldonado 1.8,
Ed Sprague 1.7, Roberto Alomar 1.0, Mike Huff 1.0, Paul Molitor .9,
John Olerud .6
Games Played (leaders):
Ed Sprague 144, Joe Carter 139, John Olerud 135, Roberto Alomar 130,
Paul Molitor 130, Shawn Green 121, Alex Gonzalez 111, Devon White 101
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'95 Starting Pitchers
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Before the season, the Jays picked up David Cone from the Royals for prospects
IF Chris Stynes, RHP David Sinnes and IF Anthony Medrano, and Cone pitched
great, but as a free-agent unlikely to return, the Jays traded him July 28/95
to the Yankees for RHP Marty Janzen, RHP Mike Gordon and RHP Jason Jarvis.
Al Leiter had his best year as a Jay but left for Florida after the season.
Hentgen and Guzman had bad years but both were pitching well by season's end:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Cone 32 R 9 6 3.38 3.67 3.63 130.3 .228 .234 .294 .365 12 7.0
Al Leiter 29 L 11 11 3.64 3.95 4.47 183.0 .241 .239 .344 .363 15 7.5
Pat Hentgen 26 R 10 14 5.11 5.55 5.84 200.7 .272 .294 .365 .454 24 6.1
Juan Guzman 28 R 4 14 6.32 6.87 5.62 135.3 .283 .284 .370 .426 13 6.3
Danny Darwin 39 R 1 8 7.62 8.28 7.39 65.0 .309 .332 .386 .550 13 5.0
After the season, the Jays traded Paul Menhart and Edwin Hurtado to the
Mariners for RHP Bill Risley and IF Miguel Cairo:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Paul Menhart 26 R 1 4 4.92 5.34 4.90 78.7 .261 .245 .349 .393 9 5.7
Edwin Hurtado 25 R 5 2 5.45 5.92 5.53 77.7 .273 .270 .356 .442 11 3.8
Jeff Ware 24 R 2 1 5.47 5.94 5.96 26.3 .277 .275 .398 .401 2 6.2
Giovanni Carrara 27 R 2 4 7.21 7.83 7.42 48.7 .306 .318 .394 .539 10 5.0
Games Started:
Pat Hentgen 30, Al Leiter 28, Juan Guzman 24, David Cone 17,
Danny Darwin 11, Edwin Hurtado 10, Paul Menhart 9, Giovanni Carrara 7,
Jeff Ware 5, Woody Williams 3
Complete Games:
David Cone 5, Juan Guzman 3, Pat Hentgen 2, Al Leiter 2, Giovanni Carrara 1,
Danny Darwin 1, Edwin Hurtado 1, Paul Menhart 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
David Cone 7.7, Pat Hentgen 6.7, Al Leiter 6.5, Juan Guzman 5.6,
Edwin Hurtado 5.5, Jeff Ware 5.3, Danny Darwin 5.0, Giovanni Carrara 4.1,
Paul Menhart 3.7
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'95 Relief Pitchers
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Once again, the pen was the best part of the team. Mike Timlin pitched well
despite elbow surgery in the middle of the season:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mike Timlin 29 R 4 3 2.14 2.32 3.56 42.0 .209 .242 .316 .324 1 7.7
Tim Crabtree 25 R 0 2 3.09 3.36 3.81 32.0 .226 .250 .323 .339 1 5.9
Tony Castillo 32 L 1 5 3.22 3.50 3.79 72.7 .228 .238 .300 .372 7 4.7
Ken Robinson 25 R 1 2 3.69 4.01 3.90 39.0 .235 .185 .299 .376 7 7.2
Danny Cox 35 R 1 3 7.40 8.04 6.92 45.0 .304 .311 .417 .454 4 7.6
Woody Williams put up good numbers. Duane Ward was ineffective and the Jays
had to release him when he refused to return to the minors:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Woody Williams 28 R 1 2 3.69 4.01 4.16 53.7 .238 .224 .321 .368 6 6.9
Darren Hall 30 R 0 2 4.41 4.79 6.73 16.3 .274 .313 .395 .478 2 6.1
Jimmy Rogers 28 R 2 4 5.70 6.19 5.66 23.7 .277 .239 .368 .426 4 4.9
Ricardo Jordan 25 L 1 0 6.60 7.17 7.84 15.0 .304 .300 .425 .516 3 6.0
Brad Cornett 26 R 0 0 9.00 9.78 10.14 5.0 .341 .391 .462 .614 1 7.2
Duane Ward 31 R 0 1 27.00 29.33 24.43 2.7 .507 .611 .696 .773 0 10.1
Relief Appearances:
Tony Castillo 55, Tim Crabtree 31, Mike Timlin 31, Danny Cox 24,
Ken Robinson 21, Woody Williams 20, Jimmy Rogers 19, Darren Hall 17,
Ricardo Jordan 15, Paul Menhart 12, Giovanni Carrara 5, Brad Cornett 5,
Edwin Hurtado 4, Duane Ward 4, Danny Darwin 2
Saves:
Tony Castillo 13, Mike Timlin 5, Darren Hall 3, Ricardo Jordan 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Woody Williams 2.3, Danny Cox 1.9, Ken Robinson 1.9, Mike Timlin 1.4,
Tony Castillo 1.3, Jimmy Rogers 1.2, Tim Crabtree 1.0, Brad Cornett 1.0,
Ricardo Jordan 1.0, Darren Hall 1.0, Duane Ward .7
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1995 American League Leaders
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The MVP Award went to Mo Vaughn, but probably Edgar Martinez, Albert Belle and
Randy Johnson, among others, were more deserving. Albert Belle was a close 2nd
in the voting, Edgar Martinez was 3rd, Jose Mesa 4th and Randy Johnson 6th. No
Blue Jays got any votes:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 310 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Edgar Martinez SEA DH .353 .356 .475 .628 10.64 125 121 113 29 4 3 627
Mark McGwire OAK 1B .352 .274 .432 .685 9.93 87 75 90 39 1 1 405
Frank Thomas CHW 1B .350 .308 .458 .606 9.80 127 102 111 40 3 2 629
Albert Belle CLE OF .336 .317 .397 .690 9.33 125 121 126 50 5 2 619
Tim Salmon CAL OF .330 .330 .427 .594 8.80 116 111 105 34 5 5 628
Jim Thome CLE 3B .325 .314 .435 .558 8.60 96 92 73 25 4 3 549
Chili Davis CAL DH .319 .318 .437 .514 8.10 85 81 86 20 3 3 513
Manny Ramirez CLE OF .311 .308 .401 .558 7.70 94 85 107 31 6 6 559
Rafael Palmeiro BAL 1B .309 .310 .380 .583 7.66 104 89 104 39 3 1 616
Harold Baines BAL DH .309 .299 .407 .540 7.65 73 60 63 24 0 2 455
Chuck Knoblauch MIN 2B .306 .333 .417 .487 7.38 99 107 63 11 46 18 616
Paul O'Neill NYY OF .306 .300 .394 .526 7.22 85 82 96 22 1 2 531
Mo Vaughn BOS 1B .305 .300 .377 .575 7.49 101 98 126 39 11 4 618
John Jaha MIL 1B .304 .313 .384 .579 7.68 57 59 65 20 2 1 352
Randy Johnson won the Cy Young Award and deservedly so. David Cone (who made
this leaderboard twice) finished 3rd. Roger Clemens didn't make the EqA
leaderboard -- he started the season on the disabled list (strained muscle
behind right shoulder) and finished with "just" a .248 EqA:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 99.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Randy Johnson SEA 18 2 2.48 2.69 2.67 214.3 .200 .208 .270 .305 12 12.3
Tim Wakefield BOS 16 8 2.95 3.20 3.73 195.3 .220 .228 .295 .372 22 5.5
Mike Mussina BAL 19 9 3.29 3.57 3.38 221.7 .222 .229 .274 .371 24 6.4
Chad Ogea CLE 8 3 3.05 3.31 3.74 106.3 .224 .240 .292 .379 11 4.8
Dennis Martinez CLE 12 5 3.08 3.35 3.75 187.0 .225 .248 .294 .379 17 4.8
Kevin Brown BAL 10 9 3.60 3.91 3.43 172.3 .227 .241 .294 .348 10 6.1
David Cone TOR 9 6 3.38 3.67 3.63 130.3 .228 .234 .294 .365 12 7.0
David Wells DET 10 3 3.04 3.30 4.12 130.3 .229 .245 .298 .405 17 5.7
Kevin Appier KAN 15 10 3.89 4.23 3.41 201.3 .230 .223 .299 .334 14 8.3
Kenny Rogers TEX 17 7 3.38 3.67 4.33 208.0 .234 .246 .313 .403 26 6.1
Orel Hershiser CLE 16 6 3.87 4.20 4.05 167.3 .239 .242 .299 .398 21 6.0
Scott Erickson BAL 9 4 3.89 4.23 4.24 108.7 .240 .266 .322 .382 7 5.1
David Cone NYY 9 2 3.82 4.15 4.14 99.0 .241 .227 .315 .377 12 8.1
Mark Gubicza KAN 12 14 3.75 4.07 4.51 213.3 .241 .269 .320 .410 21 3.4
Jose Mesa, whom the Jays traded to Baltimore in '87 as part of the Flanagan
deal, was 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Norm Charlton SEA 2 1 1.51 1.64 1.33 47.7 .158 .146 .224 .219 2 11.0
Jose Mesa CLE 3 0 1.13 1.23 2.62 64.0 .176 .213 .267 .305 3 8.2
Troy Percival CAL 3 2 1.95 2.12 1.77 74.0 .177 .150 .231 .256 6 11.4
Mike Henneman DET 0 1 1.53 1.66 2.64 29.3 .184 .224 .284 .284 0 7.4
Jeff Nelson SEA 7 3 2.17 2.36 2.73 78.7 .196 .206 .276 .300 4 11.0
John Wetteland NYY 1 5 2.93 3.18 2.32 61.3 .204 .187 .237 .313 6 9.7
Rick Aguilera MIN 1 1 2.52 2.74 2.97 25.0 .206 .220 .268 .338 2 10.4
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Theory Stuff, 1995
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The Jays' Pythagorean winning percentage wasn't the worst in the league, though
.414 over a full season would be just 67 wins, the same as the 1980 Jays:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) CLE 93-51 .644 | ( 1) CLE 7
( 2) CAL 82-63 .563 | ( 2) BOS 6
( 3) BOS 80-64 .557 | ( 3) TEX 5
( 4) SEA 80-65 .553 | ( 4) DET 5
( 5) BAL 78-66 .543 | ( 5) KAN 4
( 6) NYY 78-66 .539 | ( 6) NYY 1
( 7) CHW 72-72 .498 | ( 7) MIN -1
( 8) MIL 71-73 .496 | ( 8) SEA -1
( 9) TEX 69-75 .481 | ( 9) OAK -2
(10) OAK 69-75 .481 | (10) TOR -4
(11) KAN 66-78 .457 | (11) CAL -4
(12) TOR 60-84 .414 | (12) CHW -4
(13) MIN 57-87 .394 | (13) MIL -6
(14) DET 55-89 .385 | (14) BAL -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.005 in 1995
Age: as of July 1, 1995
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1995, the Jays scored 642 runs, allowed 777 runs, and
pitched 1292.7 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.12 in 1995)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1994-1996 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.12 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1995 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1995, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.12
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is not listed in my stats
source; in 1995, estimated as 1.09*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.005*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.12 in 1995),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.7/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .22*(H-HR) (based on 1995 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 1995
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .066*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1995
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .44*SB in 1995
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Access count for this page:
Last Updated: 1998 August 22
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.