"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1993 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1993 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Olerud 137, Paul Molitor 23, Domingo Martinez 7,
Turner Ward 1, Darnell Coles 1
Second Base: Roberto Alomar 150, Alfredo Griffin 11, Luis Sojo 8,
Domingo Cedeno 5
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 94, Dick Schofield 36, Alfredo Griffin 20,
Domingo Cedeno 10, Luis Sojo 8
Third Base: Ed Sprague 150, Darnell Coles 16, Alfredo Griffin 6,
Luis Sojo 3, Domingo Martinez 1
Outfield: Joe Carter 151, Devon White 145, Turner Ward 65,
Darrin Jackson 46, Rickey Henderson 44, Darnell Coles 44,
Willie Canate 31, Rob Butler 16, Shawn Green 2
Catcher: Pat Borders 138, Randy Knorr 39, Carlos Delgado 1
Starting Pitcher: Juan Guzman 33, Pat Hentgen 32, Todd Stottlemyre 28,
Jack Morris 27, Dave Stewart 26, Al Leiter 12,
Scott Brow 3, Doug Linton 1
Relief Pitcher: Duane Ward 71, Mark Eichhorn 54, Mike Timlin 54,
Tony Castillo 51, Danny Cox 44, Woody Williams 30,
Al Leiter 22, Huck Flener 6, Scott Brow 3,
Doug Linton 3, Ken Dayley 2, Pat Hentgen 2,
Todd Stottlemyre 2
Designated Hitter: Paul Molitor 137, John Olerud 20, Joe Carter 3,
Willie Canate 1, Carlos Delgado 1, Darnell Coles 1,
Shawn Green 1
Manager: Cito Gaston
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1993 in Context
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The World Champions replaced Dave Winfield with Paul Molitor, Jimmy Key with
Dave Stewart, David Wells with Al Leiter, David Cone with Pat Hentgen, Tom
Henke with Duane Ward, Duane Ward with Danny Cox, Manuel Lee with Tony
Fernandez, Candy Maldonado with (eventually) Rickey Henderson, Kelly Gruber
with Ed Sprague, and Bob MacDonald with Tony Castillo. Fortunately, John
Olerud, Roberto Alomar, Juan Guzman, Devon White and Joe Carter stuck around.
The rebuilt Jays thwarted the Yankees in the East and beat what was said to be
the league's best pitching staff in the ALCS. Joe Carter finished off the
Phillies in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Detroit 5.63 | ( 1) White Sox 4.11 | ( 1) TORONTO 95-67 .586
( 2) TORONTO 5.29 | ( 2) Kansas City 4.32 | ( 2) White Sox 94-68 .580
( 3) Texas 5.22 | ( 3) Boston 4.33 | ( 3) NYYankees 88-74 .543
( 4) NYYankees 5.14 | ( 4) Seattle 4.53 | ( 4) Texas 86-76 .531
( 5) Cleveland 4.92 | ( 5) TORONTO 4.63 | ( 5) Baltimore 85-77 .525
( 6) Baltimore 4.90 | ( 6) Baltimore 4.65 | ( 5) Detroit 85-77 .525
( 7) White Sox 4.80 | ( 7) Texas 4.70 | ( 7) Kansas City 84-78 .519
( 8) Milwaukee 4.56 | ( 8) NYYankees 4.76 | ( 8) Seattle 82-80 .506
( 9) Seattle 4.54 | ( 9) California 4.85 | ( 9) Boston 80-82 .494
(10) Oakland 4.43 | (10) Milwaukee 4.93 | (10) Cleveland 76-86 .469
(11) Minnesota 4.32 | (11) Cleveland 5.06 | (11) California 71-91 .438
(12) California 4.30 | (12) Minnesota 5.17 | (11) Minnesota 71-91 .438
(13) Boston 4.25 | (13) Oakland 5.24 | (13) Milwaukee 69-93 .426
(14) Kansas City 4.20 | (14) Detroit 5.24 | (14) Oakland 68-94 .420
Avg 4.75 Avg 4.75 1134-1134
Correcting the above for park factor, the best-hitting team in Jays history
was only 4th-best in the league at scoring runs, though it was much stronger at
the end of the season with Fernandez and Henderson in the lineup:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET TEX NYY TOR CHW CLE BAL OAK MIL SEA MIN CAL BOS KAN
.280 .275 .272 .271 .264 .264 .259 .259 .258 .254 .250 .247 .243 .242
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense was only
slightly better than average during the season (an EqA of .260 is average), but
Guzman, Stewart and Hentgen rose to the occasion in the playoffs. The White
Sox were said to have the best pitching in the league, but correcting for park
factor, the White Sox' pitching & defense was just 3rd-best:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS KAN CHW SEA BAL TOR CAL TEX NYY MIL CLE MIN DET OAK
.244 .245 .248 .254 .254 .257 .259 .263 .264 .266 .267 .269 .272 .277
The data says SkyDome was essentially a neutral park in '93:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS KAN BAL CAL SEA TOR MIN CLE DET MIL CHW NYY TEX OAK
6.3 5.8 3.8 3.3 1.3 .3 .3 -.2 -1.2 -1.7 -2.7 -3.7 -4.2 -6.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1992-1994 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'93 Hitters
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John Olerud quietly had the greatest hitting season in Jays history with a .358
Equivalent Average and 138 Equivalent Runs. Paul Molitor was considered by
many to be the team's MVP, presumably for "intangible" reasons. Roberto Alomar
was the best hitting second-baseman in the league, and combined with Devon
White and later Tony Fernandez, the Jays were very strong up the middle both
offensively and defensively:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
John Olerud 24 L 1B .358 .363 .472 .599 10.18 138 109 107 24 0 2 665
Paul Molitor 36 R DH .316 .332 .404 .509 7.43 122 121 111 22 22 4 713
Roberto Alomar 25 S 2B .315 .326 .407 .492 7.36 116 109 93 17 55 15 669
Tony Fernandez 31 S SS .282 .306 .362 .442 5.59 54 45 50 4 15 8 384
Devon White 30 S CF .277 .273 .336 .438 5.33 90 116 52 15 34 4 655
Joe Carter 33 R RF .273 .254 .308 .489 5.18 90 92 121 33 8 3 650
Ed Sprague 25 R 3B .244 .260 .301 .386 3.91 61 50 73 12 1 0 578
Darnell Coles 31 R OF .243 .253 .310 .371 3.88 22 26 26 4 1 1 210
Pat Borders 30 R C .232 .254 .283 .371 3.44 48 38 55 9 2 2 508
With one week left in Spring Training, OF Derek Bell and OF Stoney Briggs were
sent to San Diego for Darrin Jackson, creating a hole in the outfield. On
June 11/93, the Jays traded Jackson to the Mets for Tony Fernandez, filling a
hole at shortstop. On July 31/93, the Jays filled their hole in left-field by
obtaining Rickey Henderson from the A's for RHP Steve Karsay and OF Jose
Herrera. (Stats shown here are with the Jays only):
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rickey Henderson 34 R LF .266 .215 .354 .319 4.82 24 37 12 4 22 2 198
Randy Knorr 24 R C .261 .248 .309 .436 4.60 13 11 20 4 0 0 110
Turner Ward 28 S LF .220 .192 .289 .311 3.02 16 20 28 4 3 3 190
Darrin Jackson 30 R OF .210 .216 .250 .347 2.68 14 15 19 5 0 2 184
Dick Schofield 30 R SS .204 .191 .294 .236 2.50 9 11 5 0 3 0 126
Before the season, the Jays traded Kelly Gruber to the Angels for Luis Sojo.
Future Jay regulars Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green got a taste of a
championship season:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 21 L C .285 .000 .500 .000 5.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Domingo Martinez 25 R 1B .285 .286 .333 .500 5.73 2 2 3 1 0 0 15
Rob Butler 23 L OF .259 .271 .364 .354 4.51 6 8 2 0 2 2 55
Willie Canate 21 R OF .214 .213 .302 .277 2.81 4 12 3 1 1 1 53
Alfredo Griffin 35 S SS .165 .211 .235 .242 1.46 4 15 3 0 0 0 98
Luis Sojo 27 R 2B .158 .170 .235 .213 1.31 2 5 6 0 0 0 51
Domingo Cedeno 24 S SS .101 .174 .191 .174 .43 1 5 7 0 1 0 47
Shawn Green 20 L OF -.204 .000 .000 .000 -2.49 -1 0 0 0 0 0 6
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 9, Roberto Alomar 6, Devon White 6, Joe Carter 5,
Paul Molitor 5, Randy Knorr 2, John Olerud 2, Dick Schofield 2,
Turner Ward 2, Darnell Coles 1, Rickey Henderson 1, Ed Sprague 1
Olerud's 54 doubles led the league:
Doubles (leaders):
John Olerud 54, Devon White 42, Paul Molitor 37, Roberto Alomar 35,
Joe Carter 33, Ed Sprague 31, Pat Borders 30, Tony Fernandez 18
Olerud is the only Blue Jay to reach base more than 300 times:
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
John Olerud 314, Paul Molitor 288, Roberto Alomar 272, Devon White 220,
Joe Carter 200, Ed Sprague 174, Pat Borders 144, Tony Fernandez 139
Olerud used relatively few outs per game, giving everyone in the lineup more
opportunities to produce runs and be a hero:
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Joe Carter 453, Devon White 439, Paul Molitor 429, Roberto Alomar 412,
Ed Sprague 404, Pat Borders 366, John Olerud 353, Tony Fernandez 253
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Darrin Jackson 6.6, Alfredo Griffin 4.3, Pat Borders 3.3, Randy Knorr 3.2,
Ed Sprague 2.7, Joe Carter 2.4, Devon White 2.2, Darnell Coles 1.8,
Dick Schofield 1.6, Turner Ward 1.1, Paul Molitor .9, Tony Fernandez .8,
Roberto Alomar .8, John Olerud .6, Rickey Henderson .5
Games Played (leaders):
Paul Molitor 160, John Olerud 158, Joe Carter 155, Roberto Alomar 153,
Ed Sprague 150, Devon White 146, Pat Borders 138, Tony Fernandez 94
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'93 Starting Pitchers
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Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman were the Jays' best two starters in '93, though
neither were much better than average (an EqA of .260 is average). Hentgen
pitched well in the first-half but not so well in the second-half, and pitched
well on the road but poorly at home. The Jays were 7-1 in post-season games
started by Juan Guzman, and with hindsight we're glad he lost the one. Dave
Stewart was injured and just average during the season, but was the ALCS MVP:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pat Hentgen 24 R 19 9 3.87 4.26 4.57 216.3 .252 .258 .319 .413 27 5.1
Juan Guzman 26 R 14 3 3.99 4.39 4.47 221.0 .253 .252 .339 .372 17 7.9
Dave Stewart 36 R 12 8 4.44 4.88 4.56 162.0 .259 .242 .323 .408 23 5.3
Todd Stottlemyre 28 R 11 12 4.84 5.32 5.09 176.7 .270 .292 .355 .409 11 5.0
Jack Morris 38 R 7 12 6.19 6.81 6.00 152.7 .293 .302 .368 .457 18 6.1
Al Leiter helped the Jays for the first time since the trade 4 years earlier:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Al Leiter 27 L 9 6 4.11 4.52 4.24 105.0 .252 .240 .336 .357 8 5.7
Scott Brow 24 R 1 1 6.00 6.60 5.47 18.0 .286 .275 .367 .425 2 3.5
Games Started:
Juan Guzman 33, Pat Hentgen 32, Todd Stottlemyre 28, Jack Morris 27,
Dave Stewart 26, Al Leiter 12, Scott Brow 3, Doug Linton 1
Complete Games:
Jack Morris 4, Pat Hentgen 3, Juan Guzman 2, Al Leiter 1,
Todd Stottlemyre 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Juan Guzman 6.7, Pat Hentgen 6.4, Dave Stewart 6.2, Todd Stottlemyre 5.9,
Jack Morris 5.7, Al Leiter 3.1, Scott Brow 3.0
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'93 Relief Pitchers
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Duane Ward, who had excelled in the pressure-packed setup role in past seasons,
was promoted to "protected closer" and had his workload reduced by 30 innings;
of course he excelled again. Danny Cox, Mark Eichhorn and Tony Castillo formed
the rest of the core of a stellar bullpen:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Duane Ward 29 R 2 3 2.13 2.34 2.46 71.7 .198 .193 .265 .285 4 12.2
Mark Eichhorn 32 R 3 1 2.72 2.99 4.12 72.7 .231 .272 .326 .371 3 5.8
Danny Cox 33 R 7 6 3.12 3.43 3.68 83.7 .231 .230 .295 .358 8 9.0
Tony Castillo 30 L 3 2 3.38 3.72 3.96 50.7 .239 .242 .324 .363 4 5.0
Mike Timlin 27 R 4 2 4.69 5.16 5.70 55.7 .274 .284 .361 .442 7 7.9
26-year-old Woody Williams did fine in his first major league season:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Huck Flener 24 L 0 0 4.05 4.45 4.64 6.7 .255 .269 .367 .338 0 2.7
Woody Williams 26 R 3 1 4.38 4.82 5.20 37.0 .265 .274 .369 .381 2 5.8
Doug Linton 28 R 0 1 6.55 7.20 4.98 11.0 .287 .256 .385 .321 0 3.3
Ken Dayley 34 L 0 0 .00 .00 22.71 .7 .369 .333 .714 .418 0 27.0
Relief Appearances:
Duane Ward 71, Mark Eichhorn 54, Mike Timlin 54, Tony Castillo 51,
Danny Cox 44, Woody Williams 30, Al Leiter 22, Huck Flener 6, Scott Brow 3,
Doug Linton 3, Ken Dayley 2, Pat Hentgen 2, Todd Stottlemyre 2
Saves:
Duane Ward 45, Danny Cox 2, Al Leiter 2, Mike Timlin 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Doug Linton 2.8, Danny Cox 1.9, Mark Eichhorn 1.3, Woody Williams 1.2,
Huck Flener 1.1, Mike Timlin 1.0, Duane Ward 1.0, Tony Castillo 1.0,
Ken Dayley .3
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1993 American League Leaders
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Frank Thomas won the MVP award, unanimously, despite John Olerud having a
better season (higher EqA and EqR, and by most accounts played better first-
base too). Paul Molitor was 2nd in the voting, Olerud a close 3rd, Alomar was
6th, Joe Carter was 12th, future Jays Mike Stanley and Tony Phillps were 13th
and 16th respectively, and Duane Ward was 22nd. Rickey Henderson was having a
fantastic season with Oakland but his EqA was almost 100 points lower with the
Jays, apparently from playing hurt:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 363 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .362 .327 .469 .553 9.79 88 77 47 17 31 6 403
John Olerud TOR 1B .358 .363 .472 .599 10.18 138 109 107 24 0 2 665
Frank Thomas CHW 1B .348 .317 .433 .607 9.16 137 106 128 41 4 2 661
Ken Griffey SEA OF .333 .309 .407 .617 8.58 134 113 109 45 17 9 678
Juan Gonzalez TEX OF .327 .310 .354 .632 7.73 115 105 118 46 4 1 573
Chris Hoiles BAL C .325 .310 .408 .585 8.27 89 80 82 29 1 1 488
Rafael Palmeiro TEX 1B .319 .295 .372 .554 7.26 124 124 105 37 22 3 670
Mike Stanley NYY C .317 .305 .387 .534 7.21 85 70 84 26 1 1 480
Paul Molitor TOR DH .316 .332 .404 .509 7.43 122 121 111 22 22 4 713
Roberto Alomar TOR 2B .315 .326 .407 .492 7.36 116 109 93 17 55 15 669
Tim Raines CHW OF .310 .306 .399 .480 6.90 81 75 54 16 21 7 479
Albert Belle CLE OF .309 .290 .370 .552 7.01 117 93 129 38 23 12 670
Tony Phillips DET OF .307 .313 .443 .398 6.83 106 113 57 7 16 11 698
Harold Baines BAL DH .306 .313 .395 .510 7.11 75 64 78 20 0 0 473
Kevin Appier was far and away the best pitcher in the league, but apparently
because he pitched for the worst-hitting team, he only finished 3rd in the Cy
Young voting. Jack McDowell, who wasn't even the best starter on his own team,
won the award, the voting in before the Jays drubbed him in the ALCS. Randy
Johnson was 2nd in the voting, Jimmy Key (with the Yankees) was 4th, Duane Ward
was 5th, Pat Hentgen was 6th and Juan Guzman was 7th:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 124.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Kevin Appier KAN 18 8 2.56 2.82 2.69 238.7 .205 .212 .280 .291 8 7.0
Randy Johnson SEA 19 8 3.24 3.56 3.04 255.3 .224 .203 .281 .321 22 10.9
Danny Darwin BOS 15 11 3.26 3.58 3.56 229.3 .227 .230 .272 .388 31 5.1
David Cone KAN 11 14 3.33 3.66 3.61 254.0 .229 .223 .309 .339 20 6.8
Mark Langston CAL 16 11 3.20 3.52 3.58 256.3 .229 .234 .298 .358 22 6.9
Ben McDonald BAL 13 14 3.39 3.73 3.56 220.3 .231 .228 .302 .344 17 7.0
Jimmy Key NYY 18 6 3.00 3.30 3.65 236.7 .233 .246 .281 .389 26 6.6
Frank Viola BOS 11 8 3.14 3.45 4.22 183.7 .233 .259 .329 .372 12 4.5
Chris Bosio SEA 9 9 3.45 3.79 3.55 164.3 .233 .229 .298 .351 14 6.5
Chuck Finley CAL 16 14 3.15 3.46 4.10 251.3 .234 .253 .312 .380 22 6.7
Alex Fernandez CHW 18 9 3.13 3.44 3.75 247.3 .235 .240 .291 .381 27 6.1
Wilson Alvarez CHW 15 8 2.95 3.24 4.03 207.7 .236 .230 .340 .341 14 6.7
Jamie Moyer BAL 12 9 3.43 3.77 4.03 152.0 .237 .265 .310 .384 11 5.3
Jason Bere CHW 12 5 3.47 3.82 3.73 142.7 .240 .210 .317 .327 12 8.1
. . .
Jack McDowell CHW 22 10 3.37 3.71 4.15 256.7 .244 .266 .314 .390 20 5.5
Duane Ward made the list of top relievers:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jim Poole BAL 2 1 2.15 2.36 2.14 50.3 .190 .175 .266 .252 2 5.2
Jeff Montgomery KAN 7 5 2.27 2.50 2.34 87.3 .194 .206 .260 .284 3 6.8
Gregg Olson BAL 0 2 1.60 1.76 3.05 45.0 .195 .223 .299 .296 1 8.8
Duane Ward TOR 2 3 2.13 2.34 2.46 71.7 .198 .193 .265 .285 4 12.2
Jeff Russell BOS 1 4 2.70 2.97 2.89 46.7 .209 .231 .290 .306 1 8.7
Norm Charlton SEA 1 3 2.34 2.57 3.05 34.7 .210 .179 .279 .314 4 12.5
R Hernandez CHW 3 4 2.29 2.52 3.16 78.7 .214 .228 .278 .343 6 8.1
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Theory Stuff, 1993
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The Jays once again exceeded their Pythagorean expectation, though it wasn't
crucial to winning the division this time; 91 wins would have sufficed because
of parity in the league (a fact which was catastrophically ignored a year
later):
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) CHW 92-70 .571 | ( 1) KAN 5
( 2) TOR 91-71 .560 | ( 2) TOR 4
( 3) TEX 89-73 .548 | ( 3) MIN 3
( 4) NYY 87-75 .535 | ( 4) CHW 2
( 5) DET 86-76 .533 | ( 5) NYY 1
( 6) BAL 85-77 .524 | ( 6) SEA 1
( 7) SEA 81-81 .502 | ( 7) BOS 0
( 8) BOS 80-82 .492 | ( 8) BAL 0
( 9) KAN 79-83 .487 | ( 9) OAK -1
(10) CLE 79-83 .487 | (10) CAL -1
(11) MIL 75-87 .465 | (11) DET -1
(12) CAL 72-90 .446 | (12) TEX -3
(13) OAK 69-93 .424 | (13) CLE -3
(14) MIN 68-94 .418 | (14) MIL -6
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.003 in 1993
Age: as of July 1, 1993
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1993, the Jays scored 847 runs, allowed 742 runs, and
pitched 1441.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.75 in 1993)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1992-1994 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.75 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1993 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1993, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.75
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1993, estimated as 1.10*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.10*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.003*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.75 in 1993),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .21*(H-HR) (based on 1993 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 1993
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .069*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1993
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .56*SB in 1993
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 August 16
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