"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1992 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1992 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Olerud 133, Pat Tabler 34, Domingo Martinez 7,
Joe Carter 4, Ed Sprague 4, Jeff Kent 3, Mike Maksudian 1
Second Base: Roberto Alomar 150, Jeff Kent 17, Alfredo Griffin 16
Shortstop: Manuel Lee 128, Alfredo Griffin 48, Eddie Zosky 8
Third Base: Kelly Gruber 120, Jeff Kent 49, Tom Quinlan 13,
Pat Tabler 1, Ed Sprague 1
Outfield: Devon White 152, Candy Maldonado 132, Joe Carter 129,
Derek Bell 56, Dave Winfield 26, Rob Ducey 13,
Turner Ward 12, Pat Tabler 8
Catcher: Pat Borders 137, Greg Myers 18, Ed Sprague 15,
Randy Knorr 8
Starting Pitcher: Jack Morris 34, Jimmy Key 33, Juan Guzman 28,
Todd Stottlemyre 27, David Wells 14, Dave Stieb 14,
David Cone 7, Doug Linton 3, Pat Hentgen 2
Relief Pitcher: Duane Ward 79, Tom Henke 57, Bob MacDonald 27,
David Wells 27, Pat Hentgen 26, Mike Timlin 26,
Mark Eichhorn 23, Dave Stieb 7, Doug Linton 5,
Ricky Trlicek 2, Dave Weathers 2, David Cone 1,
Al Leiter 1, Todd Stottlemyre 1
Designated Hitter: Dave Winfield 130, Joe Carter 24, Candy Maldonado 4,
Rob Ducey 4, Rance Mulliniks 2, Pat Tabler 2,
Ed Sprague 2, John Olerud 1, Derek Bell 1,
Devon White 1, Roberto Alomar 1
Manager: Cito Gaston
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1992 in Context
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Tired of losing in the playoffs, the Jays opened the vault to sign "proven
playoff-performer" Jack Morris, who started the Jays' season with a complete-
game win, and veteran superstar Dave Winfield, who finished the Jays' season
with the World Series winning RBI. Roberto Alomar's home run off the Eck in
Game 4 avenged the '89 ALCS. Guzman, Cone, Key, Devo, Wells, Stottlemyre,
Ward, Henke and finally Timlin stopped the chop shop in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Detroit 4.96 | ( 1) Milwaukee 3.73 | ( 1) TORONTO 96-66 .593
( 2) TORONTO 4.87 | ( 2) Baltimore 4.03 | ( 1) Oakland 96-66 .593
( 3) Oakland 4.63 | ( 3) Minnesota 4.04 | ( 3) Milwaukee 92-70 .568
( 4) Minnesota 4.63 | ( 4) Kansas City 4.15 | ( 4) Minnesota 90-72 .556
( 5) Milwaukee 4.57 | ( 5) Boston 4.16 | ( 5) Baltimore 89-73 .549
( 6) White Sox 4.54 | ( 6) California 4.18 | ( 6) White Sox 86-76 .531
( 7) NYYankees 4.54 | ( 7) Oakland 4.18 | ( 7) Texas 77-85 .475
( 8) Baltimore 4.33 | ( 8) White Sox 4.25 | ( 8) Cleveland 76-86 .469
( 9) Seattle 4.23 | ( 9) TORONTO 4.26 | ( 8) NYYankees 76-86 .469
(10) Texas 4.20 | (10) Cleveland 4.57 | (10) Detroit 75-87 .463
(11) Cleveland 4.13 | (11) NYYankees 4.62 | (11) Boston 73-89 .451
(12) Kansas City 3.79 | (12) Texas 4.64 | (12) Kansas City 72-90 .444
(13) Boston 3.72 | (13) Seattle 4.98 | (12) California 72-90 .444
(14) California 3.60 | (14) Detroit 4.98 | (14) Seattle 64-98 .395
Avg 4.34 Avg 4.34 1134-1134
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays' hitting was 4th-best in the
league, a big improvement from 2nd-worst in '91. Larry Hisle was the new
hitting coach; Gene Tenace was moved to "bench coach":
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET OAK MIL TOR CHW NYY MIN TEX BAL CLE SEA KAN CAL BOS
.274 .273 .269 .268 .267 .266 .264 .261 .258 .257 .257 .244 .241 .238
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense was just
6th-best in the league, though it was stronger by the playoffs with the
addition of David Cone:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIL BOS MIN BAL KAN TOR CAL CHW OAK CLE NYY TEX SEA DET
.248 .249 .250 .250 .253 .254 .255 .260 .262 .267 .268 .272 .274 .275
SkyDome was the 2nd-best hitters' park in the league in '92:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 12 13 14
BOS TOR MIN KAN BAL SEA CAL DET NYY CLE CHW MIL TEX OAK
6.5 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 .5 .5 .1 -1.4 -1.9 -1.9 -2.9 -4.4 -5.4
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1991-1993 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'92 Hitters
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It's not as well-remembered as the '93 2B-DH-1B combo (fair enough), but
Alomar, Winfield & Olerud at those positions were the Jays' best three hitters
in '92. The team's improvement from '91 was led by Winfield (after the '91 DH
debacle), and by Manuel Lee, whose EqA jumped a significant 44 points to
respectability. Maldonado improved the Jays in left-field, and Alomar and
Olerud improved on their previous year too. Regarding The Catch, I saw it in
person, and I wasn't at all surprised that Devo caught the ball (it looked
more impressive on TV) and I thought the Jays could have had the triple play
easily if Gruber had thrown the ball to 2nd-base (I know the umpire now thinks
he blew the call, but I'm still not convinced Gruber made the tag, and if he
did it was probably on the left foot coming down, not the right):
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Roberto Alomar 24 S 2B .306 .310 .401 .427 6.57 107 105 76 8 49 9 658
Dave Winfield 40 R DH .304 .290 .377 .491 6.45 108 92 108 26 2 3 665
John Olerud 23 L 1B .297 .284 .379 .450 6.07 80 68 66 16 1 0 528
Candy Maldonado 31 R LF .288 .272 .350 .462 5.61 81 64 66 20 2 2 548
Joe Carter 32 R RF .280 .264 .304 .498 5.22 97 97 119 34 12 5 658
Devon White 29 S CF .256 .248 .299 .390 4.19 82 98 60 17 37 4 688
Manuel Lee 27 S SS .250 .263 .345 .316 3.94 47 49 39 3 6 2 446
Pat Borders 29 R C .245 .242 .290 .385 3.74 55 47 53 13 1 1 513
Kelly Gruber 30 R 3B .226 .229 .271 .352 3.07 43 42 43 11 7 7 472
Jeff Kent showed his potential as a power-hitting infielder but the Jays had to
give him up to get Cone. Derek Bell was supposed to be the Jays' left-fielder
but after a slow start he lost his job to Maldonado; his claim to fame in Jays
lore is The Walk in Game 2 of the Series:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jeff Kent 24 R 3B .269 .240 .311 .443 4.73 28 36 35 8 2 1 212
Derek Bell 23 R OF .246 .242 .307 .354 3.81 19 23 15 2 7 2 176
Pat Tabler 34 R 1B .223 .252 .308 .289 2.97 12 11 16 0 0 0 146
Alfredo Griffin 34 S SS .207 .233 .277 .280 2.47 12 21 10 0 3 1 159
Rance Mulliniks hardly played in his last year because of back problems.
Perhaps that's why Ed Sprague was sent up to face Jeff Reardon after Bell's
walk:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Domingo Martinez 24 R 1B .534 .625 .6251.000 26.27 3 2 3 1 0 0 8
Rance Mulliniks 36 L DH .459 .500 .667 .500 18.06 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
Turner Ward 27 S OF .328 .345 .424 .552 7.79 6 7 3 1 0 1 33
Eddie Zosky 24 R SS .290 .286 .286 .571 5.73 1 1 1 0 0 0 7
Randy Knorr 23 R C .258 .263 .300 .421 4.26 2 1 2 1 0 0 20
Greg Myers 26 L C .242 .230 .288 .377 3.63 7 4 13 1 0 0 66
Ed Sprague 24 R C .227 .234 .280 .340 3.11 5 6 7 1 0 0 50
Tom Quinlan 24 R 3B .069 .067 .176 .133 .16 0 2 2 0 0 0 17
Rob Ducey 27 L OF -.170 .048 .048 .095 -1.51 -1 3 0 0 0 1 21
Mike Maksudian 26 L 1B -.208 .000 .000 .000 -2.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Triples:
Roberto Alomar 8, Joe Carter 7, Devon White 7, Candy Maldonado 4,
Derek Bell 3, Kelly Gruber 3, Dave Winfield 3, Pat Borders 2, Jeff Kent 1,
Manuel Lee 1, Eddie Zosky 1
Doubles (leaders):
Dave Winfield 33, Joe Carter 30, John Olerud 28, Roberto Alomar 27,
Pat Borders 26, Devon White 26, Candy Maldonado 25, Kelly Gruber 16
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Roberto Alomar 264, Dave Winfield 251, Devon White 206, Joe Carter 200,
John Olerud 200, Candy Maldonado 192, Manuel Lee 154, Pat Borders 149
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Devon White 486, Joe Carter 463, Dave Winfield 417, Roberto Alomar 403,
Pat Borders 365, Candy Maldonado 358, Kelly Gruber 351, John Olerud 328
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Joe Carter 3.0, Devon White 2.8, Kelly Gruber 2.8, Jeff Kent 2.3,
Pat Borders 2.3, Derek Bell 2.3, Alfredo Griffin 2.1, Candy Maldonado 1.9,
Manuel Lee 1.5, Pat Tabler 1.3, Dave Winfield 1.1, John Olerud .9,
Roberto Alomar .6
Games Played (leaders):
Joe Carter 158, Dave Winfield 156, Devon White 153, Roberto Alomar 152,
Pat Borders 138, John Olerud 138, Candy Maldonado 137, Manuel Lee 128
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'92 Starting Pitchers
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Juan Guzman was the Jays' best pitcher in '92, though his high pitch counts
early kept him from pitching late into many games. Jimmy Key was good during
the season and even better when given a chance in the playoffs, but left as a
free agent after the playoff snub. Jack Morris was reputed to be a clutch
pitcher, but he gave up more runs than you'd expect from the hits, walks and
home runs against him, and a lot of his wins were the come-from-behind variety.
Stottlemyre and Wells were much better in the playoffs than during the season:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Juan Guzman 25 R 16 5 2.64 2.91 2.74 180.7 .215 .207 .286 .282 6 8.2
Jimmy Key 31 L 13 13 3.53 3.89 3.98 216.7 .246 .248 .298 .387 24 4.9
Jack Morris 37 R 21 6 4.04 4.45 3.79 240.7 .251 .246 .308 .360 18 4.9
Todd Stottlemyre 27 R 12 11 4.50 4.96 4.61 174.0 .266 .262 .326 .407 20 5.1
David Wells 29 L 7 9 5.40 5.95 5.30 120.0 .284 .289 .339 .450 16 4.7
On Aug 28/92, the Jays traded IF Jeff Kent and OF Ryan Thompson to the Mets
for soon-to-be free agent David Cone, who pitched awesome. Dave Stieb was
ineffective due to elbow problems in his last year with the Jays (or so we
thought for a long time):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Cone 29 R 4 3 2.55 2.81 3.33 53.0 .223 .206 .312 .300 3 8.0
Dave Stieb 34 R 4 6 5.04 5.55 4.88 96.3 .275 .275 .353 .411 9 4.2
Doug Linton 27 R 1 3 8.63 9.50 7.93 24.0 .338 .323 .425 .544 5 6.0
Games Started:
Jack Morris 34, Jimmy Key 33, Juan Guzman 28, Todd Stottlemyre 27,
David Wells 14, Dave Stieb 14, David Cone 7, Doug Linton 3, Pat Hentgen 2
Jack Morris led a resurgence in complete games:
Complete Games:
Jack Morris 6, Todd Stottlemyre 6, Jimmy Key 4, Juan Guzman 1, Dave Stieb 1
Morris also pitched into the 8th inning on average:
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jack Morris 7.1, David Cone 6.6, Jimmy Key 6.6, Juan Guzman 6.5,
Todd Stottlemyre 6.2, Dave Stieb 4.6, Doug Linton 3.0, David Wells 2.9
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'92 Relief Pitchers
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Duane Ward had his 5th consecutive year of excellence in the pen. The
Terminator had his 8th consecutive great year for the Jays, but the Jays let
him go as a free agent after the year (the young Ward of course would have more
good years left in him than the aging Henke). The bullpen looked thin after
that, but Key, Wells and Stottlemyre showed they could excel in this role too
when it really mattered:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Duane Ward 28 R 7 4 1.95 2.15 2.83 101.3 .205 .207 .283 .294 5 9.1
Tom Henke 34 R 3 2 2.26 2.49 2.97 55.7 .212 .197 .276 .312 5 7.4
Mike Timlin 26 R 0 2 4.12 4.54 4.17 43.7 .256 .271 .349 .336 0 7.2
Bob MacDonald 27 L 1 0 4.37 4.81 4.54 47.3 .264 .270 .328 .395 4 4.9
Pat Hentgen 23 R 5 2 5.36 5.90 5.42 50.3 .285 .254 .360 .415 7 7.0
The Jays let lots of players become free agents after the '92 season so that in
the Nov'92 expansion draft they could protect more young players who didn't
have impressive numbers yet; in other words, the Jays' strategy probably saved
them Pat Hentgen. On July 30/92, the Jays traded OF Rob Ducey and C Greg Myers
to the Angels to bring back Mark Eichhorn, who did okay.
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mark Eichhorn 31 R 2 0 4.35 4.79 4.17 31.0 .259 .285 .323 .375 1 5.5
Al Leiter 26 L 0 0 9.00 9.91 7.50 1.0 .338 .200 .429 .248 0 .0
Dave Weathers 22 R 0 0 8.10 8.92 9.66 3.3 .347 .385 .467 .689 1 8.1
Ricky Trlicek 23 R 0 0 10.80 11.89 7.02 1.7 .349 .286 .444 .354 0 5.4
Relief Appearances:
Duane Ward 79, Tom Henke 57, Bob MacDonald 27, David Wells 27,
Pat Hentgen 26, Mike Timlin 26, Mark Eichhorn 23, Dave Stieb 7,
Doug Linton 5, Ricky Trlicek 2, Dave Weathers 2, David Cone 1, Al Leiter 1,
Todd Stottlemyre 1
Saves:
Tom Henke 34, Duane Ward 12, David Wells 2, Mike Timlin 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Pat Hentgen 1.8, Bob MacDonald 1.8, Mike Timlin 1.7, Dave Weathers 1.7,
Mark Eichhorn 1.3, Duane Ward 1.3, Al Leiter 1.0, Tom Henke 1.0,
Ricky Trlicek .8
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1992 American League Leaders
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Frank Thomas was far and away the best hitter in the league (.349 Equivalent
Average, 143 Equivalent Runs), but he finished just 8th in the MVP voting. A
reliever won the award. Kirby Puckett finished 2nd (I don't know why). Joe
Carter was 3rd, McGwire 4th, Winfield 5th, Alomar 6th, Fielder 9th, Paul
Molitor 10th, Jack Morris 13th, Clemens 14th, and George Bell was 20th in the
voting:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 372 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Frank Thomas CHW 1B .349 .323 .442 .536 8.54 143 108 115 24 6 3 695
Mark McGwire OAK 1B .339 .268 .386 .585 7.71 117 87 104 42 0 1 557
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .335 .283 .422 .457 7.43 97 77 46 15 48 11 491
Edgar Martinez SEA 3B .332 .343 .404 .544 7.78 114 100 73 18 14 4 582
Danny Tartabull NYY OF .325 .266 .410 .489 7.18 95 72 85 25 2 2 524
Paul Molitor MIL DH .317 .320 .393 .461 6.65 121 89 89 12 31 6 682
Ken Griffey SEA OF .311 .308 .358 .535 6.60 109 83 103 27 10 5 609
Brian Downing TEX DH .310 .278 .395 .428 6.19 63 53 39 10 1 0 382
Lou Whitaker DET 2B .307 .278 .388 .461 6.35 88 77 71 19 6 4 534
Roberto Alomar TOR 2B .306 .310 .401 .427 6.57 107 105 76 8 49 9 658
Rob Deer DET OF .305 .247 .333 .547 6.24 78 66 64 32 4 2 444
Mickey Tettleton DET C .305 .238 .382 .469 6.23 106 82 83 32 0 6 647
Kirby Puckett MIN OF .305 .329 .372 .490 6.38 114 104 110 19 17 7 683
Dave Winfield TOR DH .304 .290 .377 .491 6.45 108 92 108 26 2 3 665
Roger Clemens deserved another Cy Young Award, but the voters gave it to a
reliever, and gave 2nd-place to Jack McDowell. Clemens was 3rd, Mussina 4th,
and Jack Morris was 5th in the voting:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 116.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens BOS 18 11 2.41 2.65 2.79 246.7 .210 .224 .274 .311 11 7.6
Juan Guzman TOR 16 5 2.64 2.91 2.74 180.7 .215 .207 .286 .282 6 8.2
Kevin Appier KAN 15 8 2.46 2.71 2.89 208.3 .216 .217 .280 .305 10 6.5
Mike Mussina BAL 18 5 2.54 2.80 3.13 241.0 .221 .239 .278 .346 16 4.9
John Smiley MIN 16 9 3.21 3.53 3.20 241.0 .232 .231 .284 .339 17 6.1
Melido Perez NYY 13 16 2.87 3.16 3.53 247.7 .236 .235 .307 .340 16 7.9
Charles Nagy CLE 17 10 2.96 3.26 3.53 252.0 .237 .260 .302 .355 11 6.0
Frank Viola BOS 13 12 3.44 3.79 3.64 238.0 .238 .242 .311 .341 13 4.6
Jim Abbott CAL 7 15 2.77 3.05 3.99 211.0 .238 .263 .321 .368 12 5.5
Jaime Navarro MIL 17 11 3.33 3.67 3.40 246.0 .242 .246 .295 .347 14 3.7
Dave Fleming SEA 17 10 3.39 3.73 3.74 228.3 .244 .257 .305 .360 13 4.4
Jack McDowell CHW 20 10 3.18 3.50 3.83 260.7 .245 .251 .304 .370 21 6.1
Mark Langston CAL 13 14 3.66 4.03 3.55 229.0 .246 .242 .303 .345 14 6.8
Jimmy Key TOR 13 13 3.53 3.89 3.98 216.7 .246 .248 .298 .387 24 4.9
Dennis Eckersley was only 80% the pitcher Duane Ward was (same EqA, 80% the
innings pitched), but got the MVP and Cy Young Awards because of a glossy save
total. The Jays made a post-season habit of drubbing bad selections by the
voters in the playoffs:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
R Hernandez CHW 7 3 1.65 1.82 1.98 71.0 .188 .180 .241 .267 4 8.6
Steve Farr NYY 2 2 1.56 1.72 2.20 52.0 .190 .186 .262 .260 2 6.4
Derek Lilliquist CLE 5 3 1.75 1.93 2.29 61.7 .196 .186 .250 .296 5 6.9
Mike Fetters MIL 5 1 1.87 2.06 2.26 62.7 .199 .185 .271 .270 3 6.2
Dennis Eckersley OAK 7 1 1.91 2.10 2.30 80.0 .203 .211 .239 .308 5 10.5
Terry Leach CHW 6 5 1.95 2.15 2.48 73.7 .204 .215 .270 .287 2 2.7
Duane Ward TOR 7 4 1.95 2.15 2.83 101.3 .205 .207 .283 .294 5 9.1
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Theory Stuff, 1992
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Paul Molitor always said the Brewers felt they would've caught the Jays if
they'd only had a few more weeks. Pythagoreas says the Jays & A's were only
2nd-best in their respective divisions. But the Jays paid upfront for their
'92 magic in '87 and '90:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) MIL 96-66 .592 | ( 1) OAK 7
( 2) MIN 91-71 .561 | ( 2) TOR 5
( 3) TOR 91-71 .561 | ( 3) TEX 3
( 4) OAK 89-73 .547 | ( 4) BAL 3
( 5) BAL 86-76 .533 | ( 5) CLE 3
( 6) CHW 86-76 .531 | ( 6) CAL 2
( 7) DET 81-81 .498 | ( 7) BOS 0
( 8) NYY 80-82 .492 | ( 8) CHW 0
( 9) KAN 74-88 .459 | ( 9) MIN -1
(10) TEX 74-88 .455 | (10) KAN -2
(11) CLE 73-89 .454 | (11) NYY -4
(12) BOS 73-89 .450 | (12) MIL -4
(13) CAL 70-92 .433 | (13) SEA -5
(14) SEA 69-93 .426 | (14) DET -6
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .997 in 1992
Age: as of July 1, 1992
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1992, the Jays scored 780 runs, allowed 682 runs, and
pitched 1440.7 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.34 in 1992)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1991-1993 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.34 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1992 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1992, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.34
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1992, estimated as 1.10*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.10*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.997*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.34 in 1992),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1992 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 1992
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .078*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1992
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .50*SB in 1992
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 July 19
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