"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1990 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1990 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Fred McGriff 147, John Olerud 18, Rance Mulliniks 3
Second Base: Manuel Lee 112, Nelson Liriano 49, Luis Sojo 15,
Tom Lawless 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 161, Manuel Lee 9, Luis Sojo 5
Third Base: Kelly Gruber 145, Rance Mulliniks 22, Tom Lawless 4,
Luis Sojo 4, Tom Quinlan 1
Outfield: Mookie Wilson 141, Junior Felix 125, George Bell 106,
Glenallen Hill 60, Mark Whiten 30, Kenny Williams 29,
Rob Ducey 19, Kelly Gruber 6, Luis Sojo 5, Tom Lawless 2
Catcher: Pat Borders 115, Greg Myers 87, Carlos Diaz 9,
Ozzie Virgil 2
Starting Pitcher: Dave Stieb 33, Todd Stottlemyre 33, Jimmy Key 27,
David Wells 25, John Cerutti 23, Willie Blair 6,
Mike Flanagan 5, Frank Wills 4, John Candelaria 2,
Bud Black 2, Steve Cummings 2
Relief Pitcher: Duane Ward 73, Tom Henke 61, Jim Acker 59,
Frank Wills 40, Willie Blair 21, David Wells 18,
John Candelaria 11, Paul Kilgus 11, John Cerutti 7,
Steve Cummings 4, Al Leiter 4, Bob MacDonald 4,
Tom Gilles 2, Bud Black 1, Rick Luecken 1
Designated Hitter: John Olerud 90, George Bell 36, Glenallen Hill 20,
Kenny Williams 12, Rance Mulliniks 10, Fred McGriff 6,
Mookie Wilson 6, Tom Lawless 5, Luis Sojo 3, Mark Whiten 2,
Kelly Gruber 1, Junior Felix 1, Pat Borders 1,
Ozzie Virgil 1
Manager: Cito Gaston
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1990 in Context
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Everything unusual that happened in 1990 was attributed to the rushed 3-week
Spring Training after the lockout. The Jays had a 1-game lead with just over
a week left in the season but lost 6 of their last 8 to blow another division
title. The A's swept the Red Sox in the ALCS, but got swept themselves by the
Reds in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) TORONTO 4.75 | ( 1) Oakland 3.52 | ( 1) Oakland 103-59 .636
( 2) Detroit 4.72 | ( 2) White Sox 3.93 | ( 2) White Sox 94-68 .580
( 3) Cleveland 4.62 | ( 3) TORONTO 4.09 | ( 3) Boston 88-74 .543
( 4) Milwaukee 4.56 | ( 4) Boston 4.14 | ( 4) TORONTO 86-76 .531
( 5) Oakland 4.53 | ( 5) Seattle 4.24 | ( 5) Texas 83-79 .512
( 6) Kansas City 4.48 | ( 6) Texas 4.34 | ( 6) California 80-82 .494
( 7) Boston 4.36 | ( 7) California 4.37 | ( 7) Detroit 79-83 .488
( 8) California 4.27 | ( 8) Baltimore 4.38 | ( 8) Seattle 77-85 .475
( 9) White Sox 4.24 | ( 9) Kansas City 4.49 | ( 8) Cleveland 77-85 .475
(10) Texas 4.21 | (10) Minnesota 4.57 | (10) Baltimore 76-85 .472
(11) Baltimore 4.19 | (11) Cleveland 4.65 | (11) Kansas City 75-86 .466
(12) Minnesota 4.18 | (12) NYYankees 4.67 | (12) Milwaukee 74-88 .457
(13) Seattle 3.99 | (13) Milwaukee 4.73 | (12) Minnesota 74-88 .457
(14) NYYankees 3.76 | (14) Detroit 4.74 | (14) NYYankees 67-95 .414
Avg 4.35 Avg 4.35 1133-1133
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays had the 2nd-best hitting team in
the league, but like most teams they weren't too far from the average of .260:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
OAK TOR DET CLE MIL KAN CAL BAL CHW TEX BOS SEA MIN NYY
.269 .268 .268 .266 .266 .265 .260 .260 .259 .257 .256 .250 .250 .244
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense was about
as good as the hitting, but only ranked 4th:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
OAK BOS CHW TOR SEA MIN TEX CAL BAL KAN NYY CLE DET MIL
.244 .251 .252 .252 .256 .259 .260 .263 .264 .266 .266 .267 .268 .270
SkyDome was rated a slight hitters' park in 1990 with a park factor of 1.015:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 4 4 7 7 9 10 10 10 13 14
MIN BOS TOR SEA DET NYY CLE TEX MIL KAN CAL CHW BAL OAK
6.5 4.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 -.0 -.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.5
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1989-1991 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'90 Hitters
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Fred McGriff had another big year, slightly ahead of his '88 season, but a drop
from his '89 year. There was no reason to think this would be his last year as
a Jay. Tony Fernandez had a good .273 EqA in his last year as a Jay. Junior
Felix had a good .276 EqA before his trade in the off-season. The Jays chose
not to re-sign the overrated George Bell -- he played 3 more unspectacular
years, never regaining his form of '86 or '87:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Fred McGriff 26 L 1B .325 .300 .401 .530 7.46 120 91 88 35 5 3 651
Kelly Gruber 28 R 3B .295 .274 .328 .512 5.87 104 92 118 31 14 2 640
John Olerud 21 L DH .289 .265 .366 .430 5.54 60 43 48 14 0 2 415
Pat Borders 27 R C .287 .286 .321 .497 5.46 56 36 49 15 0 1 364
Junior Felix 22 S RF .276 .263 .329 .441 4.97 71 73 65 15 13 8 508
Tony Fernandez 28 S SS .273 .276 .348 .391 4.81 93 84 66 4 26 13 706
George Bell 30 R LF .262 .265 .305 .422 4.35 74 67 86 21 3 2 594
Mookie Wilson 34 S CF .246 .265 .302 .355 3.73 67 81 51 3 23 4 619
Manuel Lee 25 S 2B .234 .243 .290 .340 3.27 40 45 41 6 3 1 417
A lot of us were tearing our hair out that Mookie Wilson was given so much
playing time at the expense of Glenallen Hill and Mark Whiten:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rance Mulliniks 34 L 3B .304 .289 .420 .392 6.33 18 11 16 2 2 1 119
Glenallen Hill 25 R OF .258 .231 .281 .435 4.20 35 47 32 12 8 3 278
Greg Myers 24 L C .234 .236 .298 .332 3.28 26 33 22 5 0 1 272
Nelson Liriano 26 S 2B .212 .212 .280 .294 2.57 15 16 15 1 3 5 186
I'm pretty sure this was the season Kenny Williams won the Blooper of the Year
award for his takeout of 3rd-base coach John McLaren:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Tom Quinlan 22 R 3B .363 .500 .500 .500 9.86 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rob Ducey 25 L OF .286 .302 .383 .396 5.42 8 7 7 0 1 1 60
Mark Whiten 23 R OF .261 .273 .326 .375 4.33 11 12 7 2 2 0 95
Carlos Diaz 25 R C .245 .333 .333 .333 3.68 0 1 0 0 0 0 3
Kenny Williams 26 R OF .224 .194 .266 .306 2.93 7 13 8 0 7 2 79
Luis Sojo 24 R 2B .211 .225 .271 .300 2.54 7 14 9 1 1 1 85
Jim Eppard 30 L PH .118 .200 .200 .200 .60 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Tom Lawless 33 R 3B -.173 .083 .083 .083 -1.54 -1 1 1 0 0 2 12
Ozzie Virgil 33 R C -.210 .000 .000 .000 -2.49 -1 0 0 0 0 0 5
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 17, Junior Felix 7, Kelly Gruber 6, Manuel Lee 4,
Mookie Wilson 4, Glenallen Hill 3, Pat Borders 2, Nelson Liriano 2,
Fred McGriff 1, Greg Myers 1, John Olerud 1, Mark Whiten 1,
Kenny Williams 1
Doubles (leaders):
Kelly Gruber 36, Mookie Wilson 36, Tony Fernandez 27, George Bell 25,
Pat Borders 24, Junior Felix 23, Fred McGriff 21, John Olerud 15
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Fred McGriff 261, Tony Fernandez 246, Kelly Gruber 210, Mookie Wilson 187,
George Bell 181, Junior Felix 167, John Olerud 152, Manuel Lee 121
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 473, Mookie Wilson 436, Kelly Gruber 432, George Bell 415,
Fred McGriff 393, Junior Felix 349, Manuel Lee 297, John Olerud 265
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Manuel Lee 3.5, Glenallen Hill 3.4, Mookie Wilson 3.3, Pat Borders 3.2,
George Bell 2.5, Junior Felix 2.2, Mark Whiten 2.0, Kelly Gruber 2.0,
Greg Myers 1.5, John Olerud 1.3, Nelson Liriano 1.3, Fred McGriff 1.1,
Luis Sojo 1.0, Tony Fernandez 1.0, Rance Mulliniks .9
Games Played (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 161, Fred McGriff 153, Kelly Gruber 150, Mookie Wilson 147,
George Bell 142, Junior Felix 127, Pat Borders 125, Manuel Lee 117
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'90 Starting Pitchers
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Dave Stieb finally got his no-hitter on Sept 2/90, one of 9 in the majors that
year. David Wells was also one of the best pitchers in the league. Key and
Stottlemyre were a little worse-than-average (an EqA of .260 is average).
John Cerutti had some good years for the Jays but lost his form in '90, did
worse for the Tigers in '91, and never pitched in the majors again (except with
his voice):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 32 R 18 6 2.93 3.26 3.18 208.7 .229 .230 .289 .326 11 5.4
David Wells 27 L 11 6 3.14 3.50 3.25 189.0 .233 .235 .281 .348 14 5.5
Jimmy Key 29 L 13 7 4.25 4.73 4.56 154.7 .265 .281 .307 .442 20 5.1
Todd Stottlemyre 25 R 13 17 4.34 4.83 4.63 203.0 .267 .274 .333 .405 18 5.1
John Cerutti 30 L 9 9 4.76 5.30 5.83 140.0 .285 .297 .355 .487 23 3.2
On Sept 17/90, the Jays traded RHP Alex Sanchez, Steve Cummings and RHP Mauro
Gozzo to the Indians for Bud Black, who had an excellent season and pitched
well for the Jays:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Bud Black 33 L 2 1 4.02 4.47 2.42 15.7 .235 .189 .232 .339 2 1.7
Mike Flanagan 38 L 2 2 5.31 5.91 6.88 20.3 .301 .329 .387 .508 3 2.2
Steve Cummings 25 R 0 0 5.11 5.69 10.77 12.3 .333 .431 .482 .754 4 2.9
Games Started:
Dave Stieb 33, Todd Stottlemyre 33, Jimmy Key 27, David Wells 25,
John Cerutti 23, Willie Blair 6, Mike Flanagan 5, Frank Wills 4,
John Candelaria 2, Bud Black 2, Steve Cummings 2
Maybe the short Spring Training . . . , never mind:
Complete Games:
Todd Stottlemyre 4, Dave Stieb 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 6.3, Todd Stottlemyre 6.2, Jimmy Key 5.7, Bud Black 5.2,
John Cerutti 4.7, David Wells 4.4, Mike Flanagan 4.1, Steve Cummings 2.1
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'90 Relief Pitchers
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Henke and Ward were great, and Blair and Acker were average in the bullpen:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke 32 R 2 4 2.17 2.42 3.05 74.7 .214 .213 .265 .347 8 9.0
Duane Ward 26 R 2 8 3.45 3.84 3.12 127.7 .236 .221 .287 .330 9 7.9
Willie Blair 24 R 3 5 4.06 4.52 4.04 68.7 .257 .250 .322 .354 4 5.6
Jim Acker 31 R 4 4 3.83 4.26 4.94 91.7 .264 .281 .335 .418 9 5.3
Frank Wills 31 R 6 4 4.73 5.26 4.90 99.0 .275 .266 .333 .426 13 6.5
On July 27/90, the Jays traded Nelson Liriano and OF Pedro Munoz to the Twins
for John Candelaria, unfortunately:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Al Leiter 24 L 0 0 .00 .00 -.88 6.3-.103 .050 .136 .062 0 7.1
Bob MacDonald 25 L 0 0 .00 .00 .07 2.3 .038 .000 .233 .000 0 .0
Tom Gilles 27 R 1 0 6.75 7.51 5.01 1.3 .299 .333 .333 .416 0 6.8
Paul Kilgus 28 L 0 0 6.06 6.75 5.85 16.3 .299 .306 .377 .471 2 3.9
John Candelaria 36 L 0 3 5.48 6.10 7.52 21.3 .309 .356 .426 .505 2 8.0
Rick Luecken 24 R 0 0 9.00 10.02 19.25 1.0 .419 .500 .6001.312 1 .0
Relief Appearances:
Duane Ward 73, Tom Henke 61, Jim Acker 59, Frank Wills 40, Willie Blair 21,
David Wells 18, John Candelaria 11, Paul Kilgus 11, John Cerutti 7,
Steve Cummings 4, Al Leiter 4, Bob MacDonald 4, Tom Gilles 2, Bud Black 1,
Rick Luecken 1
Saves:
Tom Henke 32, Duane Ward 11, David Wells 3, Jim Acker 1, John Candelaria 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Willie Blair 2.5, Frank Wills 2.3, Duane Ward 1.7, John Candelaria 1.6,
Al Leiter 1.6, Jim Acker 1.6, Paul Kilgus 1.5, Tom Henke 1.2,
Rick Luecken 1.0, Tom Gilles .7, Bob MacDonald .6
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1990 American League Leaders
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Sometimes there is justice: Rickey Henderson won the MVP despite 71 fewer RBI
than Cecil Fielder (who was just back from Japan), though Cecil was probably
held back by his team's pitching. Fielder was 2nd in the voting, Clemens was
3rd, Kelly Gruber was 4th (.295 EqA, 104 EqR, his career year), Fred McGriff
was 10th, Jose Canseco was 12th, and Dave Stieb tied for 25th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 364 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .365 .325 .437 .577 9.40 139 119 61 28 65 10 586
Cecil Fielder DET 1B .328 .277 .376 .592 7.60 130 104 132 51 0 1 663
Randy Milligan BAL 1B .327 .265 .409 .492 7.21 83 64 60 20 6 3 450
Fred McGriff TOR 1B .325 .300 .401 .530 7.46 120 91 88 35 5 3 651
George Brett KAN 1B .324 .329 .392 .515 7.15 111 82 87 14 9 2 600
Jose Canseco OAK OF .322 .274 .369 .543 6.88 108 83 101 37 19 10 553
Mark McGwire OAK 1B .311 .235 .368 .489 6.31 110 87 108 39 2 1 633
Bo Jackson KAN OF .305 .272 .343 .523 6.13 79 74 78 28 15 9 449
Brian Downing CAL DH .303 .273 .368 .467 6.05 62 47 51 14 0 0 380
Carlton Fisk CHW C .301 .285 .370 .451 5.94 82 65 65 18 7 2 513
Harold Baines TEX DH .301 .290 .380 .449 6.05 58 41 44 13 0 1 368
Edgar Martinez SEA 3B .301 .302 .394 .433 6.10 86 71 49 11 1 4 561
Ken Griffey SEA OF .300 .300 .367 .481 6.10 108 91 80 22 16 11 660
Alvin Davis SEA DH .298 .283 .389 .429 6.00 88 63 68 17 0 2 579
Roger Clemens had a shoulder injury in September, but came back for the ALCS,
in which he was ejected in the 2nd inning of Game 4 for something he said to
the home plate umpire. Roger was clearly the best pitcher in the league, but
finished 2nd in the voting to Bob Welch. Taking Innings Pitched into account,
Stieb was probably the 4th-best pitcher and Wells 8th. 25-year-old future Jay
Erik Hanson probably should have rated 5th. Stieb did pick up a couple of
3rd-place votes to finished tied for 5th in the Cy Young voting:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 134.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens BOS 21 6 1.93 2.15 2.75 228.3 .203 .228 .274 .307 7 8.2
Dave Stieb TOR 18 6 2.93 3.26 3.18 208.7 .229 .230 .289 .326 11 5.4
Dave Stewart OAK 22 11 2.56 2.85 3.24 267.0 .229 .231 .291 .333 16 5.6
Nolan Ryan TEX 13 9 3.44 3.83 2.65 204.0 .231 .188 .263 .302 18 10.2
Chuck Finley CAL 18 9 2.40 2.67 3.69 236.0 .231 .243 .308 .357 17 6.8
David Wells TOR 11 6 3.14 3.50 3.25 189.0 .233 .235 .281 .348 14 5.5
Erik Hanson SEA 18 9 3.24 3.61 3.26 236.0 .235 .232 .287 .336 15 8.0
Kevin Appier KAN 12 8 2.76 3.07 3.82 185.7 .239 .252 .305 .365 13 6.2
Eric King CHW 12 4 3.28 3.65 3.34 151.0 .240 .237 .287 .344 10 4.2
Greg Hibbard CHW 14 9 3.16 3.52 3.61 211.0 .242 .255 .303 .356 11 3.9
Ron Robinson MIL 12 5 2.91 3.24 3.97 148.3 .242 .275 .319 .367 5 3.5
Mike Boddicker BOS 17 8 3.36 3.74 3.99 228.0 .243 .258 .312 .372 16 5.6
Bud Black CLE 11 10 3.53 3.93 3.62 191.0 .246 .236 .292 .359 17 4.9
Bob Welch OAK 27 6 2.95 3.28 3.93 238.0 .246 .242 .303 .383 26 4.8
The Eck was almost impossible to hit in 1990, until Game 2 of the World Series
which he lost in extra innings:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dennis Eckersley OAK 4 2 .61 .68 .66 73.3 .125 .160 .173 .221 2 9.0
Gene Nelson OAK 3 3 1.57 1.75 2.51 74.7 .199 .208 .256 .312 5 4.6
Bobby Thigpen CHW 4 6 1.83 2.04 2.51 88.7 .202 .195 .271 .288 5 7.1
Steve Farr KAN 13 7 1.98 2.20 3.04 127.0 .214 .220 .295 .311 6 6.7
Tom Henke TOR 2 4 2.17 2.42 3.05 74.7 .214 .213 .265 .347 8 9.0
Doug Jones CLE 5 5 2.56 2.85 2.77 84.3 .218 .218 .271 .317 5 5.9
Mike Schooler SEA 1 4 2.25 2.50 3.32 56.0 .220 .227 .283 .350 5 7.2
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Theory Stuff, 1990
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The Jays' Pythagorean Record was 7 games better the Red Sox, perhaps prompting
Gillick to think he needed to shake up the team somehow:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) OAK 99-63 .613 | ( 1) TOR 6
( 2) TOR 92-70 .568 | ( 2) KAN 5
( 3) CHW 87-75 .534 | ( 3) MIL 4
( 4) BOS 85-77 .523 | ( 4) CLE 3
( 5) KAN 80-81 .499 | ( 5) DET 2
( 6) DET 81-81 .498 | ( 6) BAL 1
( 7) CLE 80-82 .497 | ( 7) MIN 0
( 8) CAL 79-83 .490 | ( 8) SEA 0
( 9) TEX 79-83 .487 | ( 9) CAL -1
(10) MIL 78-84 .483 | (10) NYY -2
(11) BAL 77-84 .481 | (11) BOS -3
(12) SEA 77-85 .472 | (12) OAK -4
(13) MIN 74-88 .459 | (13) TEX -4
(14) NYY 65-97 .402 | (14) CHW -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .994 in 1990
Age: as of July 1, 1990
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1990, the Jays scored 767 runs, allowed 661 runs, and
pitched 1454.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.35 in 1990)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1989-1991 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.35 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1990 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1990, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.35
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1990, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.994*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.35 in 1990),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1990 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .13*D in 1990
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .069*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1990
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .52*SB in 1990
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Apr 6
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.