"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1989 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1989 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Fred McGriff 159, Bob Brenly 5, John Olerud 5,
Lee Mazzilli 2
Second Base: Nelson Liriano 122, Manuel Lee 40, Tom Lawless 7,
Alexis Infante 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 140, Manuel Lee 28, Alexis Infante 9,
Kelly Gruber 1
Third Base: Kelly Gruber 119, Rance Mulliniks 29, Manuel Lee 17,
Tom Lawless 12, Alexis Infante 4
Outfield: George Bell 134, Lloyd Moseby 120, Junior Felix 107,
Mookie Wilson 54, Rob Ducey 35, Jesse Barfield 21,
Tom Lawless 16, Kelly Gruber 16, Glenallen Hill 16,
Kevin Batiste 5, Lee Mazzilli 2, Manuel Lee 1
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 115, Pat Borders 68, Bob Brenly 13,
Greg Myers 11, Ozzie Virgil 1, Tom Lawless 1
Starting Pitcher: Jimmy Key 33, Dave Stieb 33, John Cerutti 31,
Mike Flanagan 30, Todd Stottlemyre 18, Frank Wills 4,
Mauro Gozzo 3, Alex Sanchez 3, Jeff Musselman 3,
Steve Cummings 2, Jose Nunez 1, Al Leiter 1
Relief Pitcher: Duane Ward 66, Tom Henke 64, David Wells 54,
Frank Wills 20, Tony Castillo 17, Jim Acker 14,
Todd Stottlemyre 9, DeWayne Buice 7, Xavier Hernandez 7,
Mauro Gozzo 6, Jose Nunez 5, Steve Cummings 3,
John Cerutti 2, Jeff Musselman 2, Alex Sanchez 1
Designated Hitter: Rance Mulliniks 73, Bob Brenly 28, Lee Mazzilli 19,
George Bell 19, Pat Borders 19, Lloyd Moseby 14,
Manuel Lee 13, Tom Lawless 12, Ernie Whitt 8, Greg Myers 6,
Ozzie Virgil 6, Nelson Liriano 5, Alexis Infante 3,
Glenallen Hill 3, Francisco Cabrera 3, Fred McGriff 2,
Junior Felix 2, Kelly Gruber 1, Rob Ducey 1, John Olerud 1
Manager: Jimy Williams 12-24 .333, Cito Gaston 77-49 .611
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1989 in Context
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After a 12-24 start (mostly against the league's best teams, but still, 12-24),
Cito Gaston became manager and the Jays overtook the storybook O's for the
division title. The Jays were then drubbed by the A's in 5 games, who went on
to sweep the Giants in the 15-day Earthquake Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Boston 4.77 | ( 1) California 3.58 | ( 1) Oakland 99-63 .611
( 2) Minnesota 4.66 | ( 2) Oakland 3.58 | ( 2) Kansas City 92-70 .568
( 3) TORONTO 4.48 | ( 3) Kansas City 3.94 | ( 3) California 91-71 .562
( 4) Milwaukee 4.44 | ( 4) TORONTO 3.99 | ( 4) TORONTO 89-73 .549
( 5) NYYankees 4.44 | ( 5) Cleveland 4.05 | ( 5) Baltimore 87-75 .537
( 6) Oakland 4.42 | ( 6) Baltimore 4.26 | ( 6) Texas 83-79 .512
( 7) Baltimore 4.40 | ( 7) Milwaukee 4.27 | ( 6) Boston 83-79 .512
( 8) White Sox 4.39 | ( 8) Texas 4.48 | ( 8) Milwaukee 81-81 .500
( 9) Texas 4.36 | ( 9) Boston 4.53 | ( 9) Minnesota 80-82 .494
(10) Seattle 4.34 | (10) Seattle 4.56 | (10) NYYankees 74-87 .460
(11) Kansas City 4.28 | (11) Minnesota 4.65 | (11) Cleveland 73-89 .451
(12) California 4.14 | (12) White Sox 4.75 | (11) Seattle 73-89 .451
(13) Detroit 3.89 | (13) NYYankees 5.04 | (13) White Sox 69-92 .429
(14) Cleveland 3.74 | (14) Detroit 5.15 | (14) Detroit 59-103 .364
Avg 4.34 Avg 4.34 1133-1133
Correcting the above for park factor, the '89 Jays had the 2nd-best hitting
team in the league, but no team had a standout offense -- the top 12 teams were
all clustered around the average of .260 (of course, the A's only had Rickey
and Jose for part of the season):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
OAK TOR BAL BOS MIL CHW NYY MIN KAN TEX CAL SEA DET CLE
.267 .266 .264 .264 .264 .263 .263 .261 .259 .259 .257 .257 .251 .243
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense was about
as good as the hitting, even though it only ranked 5th in the league:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CAL OAK KAN CLE TOR BOS MIL MIN BAL TEX SEA CHW NYY DET
.243 .245 .251 .251 .254 .259 .259 .260 .261 .261 .262 .272 .277 .281
The Jays moved into SkyDome June 5/89, and it together with the Ex was rated a
pitchers' park in '89. This fits with all the early (false) speculation that
SkyDome's dimensions were bigger than listed:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 9 9 12 12 14
MIN BOS SEA TEX CLE NYY KAN MIL CHW CAL DET TOR BAL OAK
6.8 5.8 3.3 1.8 1.8 -.7 -.7 -1.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1988-1990 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'89 Hitters
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One thing I didn't realize before embarking on this project was how good a
hitter Ernie Whitt was. From 1982-1989, Ernie's EqAs were (in order)
.263 .281 .268 .267 .272 .270 .282 .285
which is excellent for a catcher. His batting average was always lower than
his EqA, and his HR & RBI numbers were restrained by not playing everyday. The
Jays apparently were deceived too, figuring Ernie could only serve in a backup
role in the future. Maybe it was his defense -- the A's stole 13 out of 15
against the Jays in the ALCS (8 by Rickey), though the Jays were 11 for 11
themselves, and Total Baseball rated Ernie's defense only 2 runs worse than
average in '89. Anyway, Ernie didn't want to accept a backup role. On
Dec 17/89, the Jays traded Ernie Whitt and OF Kevin Batiste to the Braves for
RHP Ricky Trlicek. It turned out that Ernie never played well again, and Pat
Borders had his career year in 1990, but I think Ernie would have done okay if
he hadn't changed leagues so late in his career:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Fred McGriff 25 L 1B .330 .269 .399 .525 7.33 129 98 92 36 7 4 670
George Bell 29 R LF .288 .297 .333 .458 5.23 98 88 104 18 4 3 646
Ernie Whitt 37 L C .285 .262 .350 .416 5.08 63 42 53 11 5 4 437
Kelly Gruber 27 R 3B .284 .290 .327 .448 5.03 85 83 73 18 10 5 575
Nelson Liriano 25 S 2B .269 .263 .332 .376 4.38 60 51 53 5 16 7 461
Junior Felix 21 S RF .264 .258 .313 .395 4.18 58 62 46 9 18 12 448
Tony Fernandez 27 S SS .257 .257 .292 .389 3.92 73 64 64 11 22 6 602
Lloyd Moseby 29 L CF .251 .221 .299 .349 3.68 64 72 43 11 24 7 558
Manuel Lee 24 S 2B .243 .260 .306 .333 3.42 33 27 34 3 4 2 320
On July 31/89, the Jays traded LHP Jeff Musselman and RHP Mike Brady to the
Mets for Mookie Wilson, whose singles and stolen bases were credited with
turbo-charging the Jays' offense:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mookie Wilson 33 S OF .259 .298 .307 .370 4.00 29 32 17 2 12 1 241
Rance Mulliniks 33 L DH .250 .238 .322 .326 3.66 33 25 29 3 0 0 307
Pat Borders 26 R C .240 .257 .290 .349 3.32 26 22 29 3 2 1 252
On April 30/89, the Jays traded Jesse Barfield to the Yankees for LHP
Al Leiter. Barfield went on to have 4 good years for the Yankees, though
he never repeated his superb '85 and '86 seasons. '89 was also Lloyd Moseby's
last year as a Jay -- he played 2 more years for the Tigers, one average, one
not so good:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ozzie Virgil 32 R C .334 .182 .400 .545 7.57 3 2 2 1 0 0 15
Lee Mazzilli 34 S DH .314 .227 .386 .455 6.46 14 12 11 4 2 0 83
John Olerud 20 L 1B .281 .375 .375 .375 4.92 1 2 0 0 0 0 8
Glenallen Hill 24 R OF .256 .288 .327 .346 3.90 6 4 7 1 2 1 55
Jesse Barfield 29 R OF .245 .200 .247 .438 3.49 10 8 11 5 0 2 85
Tom Lawless 32 R OF .237 .229 .299 .243 3.20 8 20 3 0 12 1 77
Rob Ducey 24 L OF .219 .211 .294 .263 2.64 7 5 7 0 2 1 85
Bob Brenly 35 R DH .201 .170 .255 .261 2.13 7 9 6 1 1 0 98
Kevin Batiste 22 R OF .181 .250 .250 .250 1.62 0 1 0 0 0 0 8
Fr Cabrera 22 R DH .181 .167 .231 .250 1.62 1 1 0 0 0 0 13
Alexis Infante 27 R SS .102 .167 .167 .167 .39 0 1 0 0 1 0 12
Greg Myers 23 L C -.064 .114 .152 .159 -.12 0 0 1 0 0 1 46
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 9, Junior Felix 8, Kelly Gruber 4, Nelson Liriano 3,
Fred McGriff 3, Lloyd Moseby 3, George Bell 2, Manuel Lee 2,
Rance Mulliniks 2, Pat Borders 1, Bob Brenly 1, Ernie Whitt 1,
Mookie Wilson 1
Doubles (leaders):
George Bell 41, Fred McGriff 27, Nelson Liriano 26, Tony Fernandez 25,
Lloyd Moseby 25, Kelly Gruber 24, Ernie Whitt 24, Junior Felix 14
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Fred McGriff 267, George Bell 215, Kelly Gruber 188, Tony Fernandez 176,
Lloyd Moseby 167, Nelson Liriano 153, Ernie Whitt 153, Junior Felix 140
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
George Bell 434, Tony Fernandez 432, Fred McGriff 407, Lloyd Moseby 398,
Kelly Gruber 392, Junior Felix 320, Nelson Liriano 315, Ernie Whitt 288
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Mookie Wilson 12.3, Jesse Barfield 5.6, Pat Borders 4.1, Junior Felix 3.1,
Manuel Lee 3.0, Rob Ducey 2.8, Kelly Gruber 2.0, George Bell 1.8,
Lloyd Moseby 1.8, Tony Fernandez 1.8, Bob Brenly 1.7, Nelson Liriano 1.2,
Rance Mulliniks 1.2, Fred McGriff 1.1, Ernie Whitt 1.0
Games Played (leaders):
Fred McGriff 161, George Bell 153, Tony Fernandez 140, Kelly Gruber 135,
Lloyd Moseby 135, Nelson Liriano 132, Ernie Whitt 129, Junior Felix 110
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'89 Starting Pitchers
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For those of you who've never read the glossary, RA* is an estimate of runs
allowed per 9 innings based on ERA, and R27 is an estimate of expected runs
allowed per 9 innings based on hits, walks and home runs against the pitcher.
One of the biggest surprises I had on this project is that actual runs allowed
data (as opposed to earned runs) is not readily available in any major
historical reference. But for 1990 I have some of the numbers, and I can tell
you that Stieb's true RA was 3.61, followed by Cerutti at 3.94 and Key at 4.13.
I was prompted to look this up by the unusually large differences between these
pitchers' RA* and R27. It turns out the average of RA* and R27 was very close
to the true RA for both Cerutti and Key, and not much further off than RA* for
Stieb. The EqA number is based on the average of RA* and R27, (park-adjusted
and the league-average set to .260 every year, of course):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 31 R 17 8 3.35 3.74 3.09 206.7 .239 .219 .291 .315 12 4.4
John Cerutti 29 L 11 11 3.07 3.43 4.35 205.3 .252 .273 .319 .404 19 3.0
Jimmy Key 28 L 13 14 3.88 4.34 3.86 216.0 .257 .270 .293 .393 18 4.9
Mike Flanagan 37 L 8 10 3.93 4.39 4.36 171.7 .264 .283 .331 .392 10 2.5
Todd Stottlemyre 24 R 7 7 3.88 4.34 4.75 127.7 .268 .282 .342 .411 11 4.4
The Jays media guide lists the Jays pitchers whose debut was as a starter.
Most of the good pitchers on the list (Stieb, Guzman, Carpenter, etc.)
struggled in their first game. Meanwhile, Mauro Gozzo had the best debut with
8 IP and 0 runs allowed, but it was not an omen:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Cummings 24 R 2 0 3.00 3.35 3.77 21.0 .243 .231 .326 .320 1 3.4
Mauro Gozzo 23 R 4 1 4.83 5.40 4.31 31.7 .275 .289 .338 .380 1 2.8
Al Leiter 23 L 0 0 4.05 4.53 6.29 6.7 .287 .310 .355 .479 1 5.4
Alex Sanchez 23 R 0 1 10.03 11.21 8.99 11.7 .369 .356 .508 .501 1 3.1
Jeff Musselman 26 L 0 1 10.64 11.89 10.37 11.0 .384 .404 .500 .617 2 2.5
Games Started:
Jimmy Key 33, Dave Stieb 33, John Cerutti 31, Mike Flanagan 30,
Todd Stottlemyre 18, Frank Wills 4, Mauro Gozzo 3, Alex Sanchez 3,
Jeff Musselman 3, Steve Cummings 2, Jose Nunez 1, Al Leiter 1
Complete Games:
Jimmy Key 5, John Cerutti 3, Dave Stieb 3, Mike Flanagan 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Al Leiter 6.7, Jimmy Key 6.5, Dave Stieb 6.3, John Cerutti 6.2,
Mike Flanagan 5.7, Todd Stottlemyre 4.7, Steve Cummings 4.2,
Mauro Gozzo 3.5, Alex Sanchez 2.9, Jeff Musselman 2.2
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'89 Relief Pitchers
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Terminator was awesome again and David Wells became an effective pitcher.
Wells, Ward and Wills formed the Jays' first WWW sight:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke 31 R 8 3 1.92 2.15 2.52 89.0 .205 .205 .262 .296 5 11.7
David Wells 26 L 7 4 2.40 2.68 2.73 86.3 .218 .207 .271 .299 5 8.1
Duane Ward 25 R 4 10 3.77 4.21 3.52 114.7 .251 .230 .325 .311 4 9.6
Frank Wills 30 R 3 1 3.66 4.09 3.80 71.3 .253 .242 .318 .340 4 5.2
Tony Castillo 26 L 1 1 6.11 6.83 5.99 17.7 .308 .333 .418 .412 0 5.1
On Aug 24/89, the Jays traded LHP Tony Castillo and C Francisco Cabrera to the
Braves for Jim Acker, whose excellent pitching prompted Cito to use him in all
5 ALCS games, in which he also pitched well (RA of 2.84):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jose Nunez 25 R 0 0 2.53 2.83 1.73 10.7 .203 .200 .238 .247 0 11.8
Jim Acker 30 R 2 1 1.59 1.78 3.42 28.3 .214 .235 .316 .318 1 7.6
Xavier Hernandez 23 R 1 0 4.76 5.32 4.82 22.7 .280 .278 .337 .405 2 2.8
DeWayne Buice 31 R 1 0 5.82 6.50 4.70 17.0 .291 .220 .361 .366 2 5.3
Relief Appearances:
Duane Ward 66, Tom Henke 64, David Wells 54, Frank Wills 20,
Tony Castillo 17, Jim Acker 14, Todd Stottlemyre 9, DeWayne Buice 7,
Xavier Hernandez 7, Mauro Gozzo 6, Jose Nunez 5, Steve Cummings 3,
John Cerutti 2, Jeff Musselman 2, Alex Sanchez 1
Saves:
Tom Henke 20, Duane Ward 15, David Wells 2, Tony Castillo 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Xavier Hernandez 3.2, Frank Wills 3.0, DeWayne Buice 2.4, Jim Acker 2.0,
Jose Nunez 1.8, Duane Ward 1.7, David Wells 1.6, Tom Henke 1.4,
Tony Castillo 1.0
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1989 American League Leaders
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Fred McGriff's '89 season (.330 EqA, 129 EqR) set a new Jays' best to that
point, and his 129 Equivalent Runs led the league (Henderson had 119 if you add
in his Yankee stats, and Baines had 99 including his Ranger stats). Robin
Yount won the MVP, Ruben Sierra finished 2nd, Cal Ripken of the storybook O's
finished 3rd (just .268 EqA, 91 EqR), and George Bell was 4th (just .288 EqA,
98 EqR). McGriff was 6th. My choice of Rickey Henderson was 9th. Joe Carter
was 16th (.268 EqA, 94 EqR), Tony Fernandez 19th, and Mookie tied for 25th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 345 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .339 .294 .426 .438 7.70 76 72 35 9 52 6 376
Harold Baines CHW DH .336 .321 .425 .505 7.71 76 55 56 13 0 1 393
Fred McGriff TOR 1B .330 .269 .399 .525 7.33 129 98 92 36 7 4 670
Alvin Davis SEA 1B .326 .305 .422 .496 7.56 107 84 95 21 0 1 599
Robin Yount MIL OF .321 .318 .381 .511 6.95 125 101 103 21 19 3 677
Mickey Tettleton BAL C .315 .258 .370 .509 6.53 87 72 65 26 3 2 484
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .314 .330 .429 .449 7.05 119 113 54 3 2 6 728
Randy Milligan BAL 1B .313 .268 .392 .458 6.42 76 56 45 12 9 5 439
Ruben Sierra TEX OF .311 .306 .350 .543 6.59 121 101 119 29 8 2 677
Julio Franco TEX 2B .310 .316 .389 .462 6.57 103 80 92 13 21 3 614
Dwight Evans BOS OF .307 .285 .399 .463 6.63 99 82 100 20 3 3 619
Kent Hrbek MIN 1B .304 .272 .362 .517 6.54 71 59 84 25 3 0 428
Carney Lansford OAK 3B .304 .336 .392 .405 5.83 98 81 52 2 37 15 602
Paul Molitor MIL 3B .302 .315 .380 .439 5.98 110 84 56 11 27 11 679
Bret Saberhagen won the Cy Young award, and deservedly so. Dave Stewart was
2nd, but with an EqA of .255 he didn't make my leaderboard. Mike Moore was
3rd in the voting, Blyleven 4th, Ryan 5th. Clemens and Stieb didn't get any
votes, which is okay because they weren't in the top 3, though counting IP
Clemens was probably 5th-best overall (based on wins vs a replacement level
pitcher). For the record, Stieb's one-hitter was Apr 10/89 and his almost-
perfect game was Aug 4/89:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 123.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Bret Saberhagen KAN 23 6 2.16 2.41 2.40 262.3 .206 .217 .250 .305 13 6.6
Nolan Ryan TEX 16 10 3.20 3.58 2.63 239.3 .226 .187 .270 .285 17 11.3
Mike Moore OAK 19 11 2.61 2.92 3.03 241.7 .228 .219 .286 .315 14 6.4
Bert Blyleven CAL 17 5 2.73 3.05 3.25 241.0 .231 .248 .283 .349 14 4.9
Chuck Finley CAL 16 9 2.57 2.87 3.60 199.7 .234 .233 .310 .337 13 7.0
Tom Candiotti CLE 13 10 3.10 3.46 3.30 206.0 .234 .242 .292 .334 10 5.4
Roger Clemens BOS 17 11 3.13 3.50 3.54 253.3 .234 .231 .301 .345 20 8.2
Chris Bosio MIL 15 10 2.95 3.30 3.47 234.7 .237 .249 .287 .356 16 6.6
Mark Gubicza KAN 15 11 3.04 3.40 3.57 255.0 .239 .259 .304 .348 10 6.1
Dave Stieb TOR 17 8 3.35 3.74 3.09 206.7 .239 .219 .291 .315 12 4.4
Kevin Brown TEX 12 9 3.35 3.74 3.42 191.0 .239 .234 .302 .328 10 4.9
Scott Bankhead SEA 14 6 3.34 3.73 3.63 210.3 .241 .239 .296 .363 19 6.0
Bud Black CLE 12 11 3.36 3.76 3.56 222.3 .241 .252 .295 .357 14 3.6
Kirk McCaskill CAL 15 10 2.93 3.27 3.80 212.0 .242 .254 .306 .369 16 4.5
The Eck sure was tough in '89, though in a small number of innings. Jeff
Montgomery was the best reliever:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dennis Eckersley OAK 4 0 1.56 1.74 1.14 57.7 .171 .162 .174 .269 5 8.6
Jeff Montgomery KAN 7 3 1.37 1.53 2.16 92.0 .185 .198 .254 .270 3 9.2
Jeff Russell TEX 6 4 1.98 2.21 2.12 72.7 .196 .182 .255 .270 4 9.5
Bob McClure CAL 6 1 1.55 1.73 2.50 52.3 .197 .212 .271 .292 2 6.2
Gregg Olson BAL 5 2 1.69 1.89 2.56 85.0 .201 .188 .295 .241 1 9.5
Tom Henke TOR 8 3 1.92 2.15 2.52 89.0 .205 .205 .262 .296 5 11.7
Todd Burns OAK 6 5 2.24 2.50 2.12 96.3 .206 .196 .258 .267 3 4.6
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Theory Stuff, 1989
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The Jays had the 3rd-best Pythagorean record in the league, 1st in the East.
The O's just had the 4th-best Pythagorean record in the East:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) OAK 97-65 .596 | ( 1) CHW 6
( 2) CAL 92-70 .566 | ( 2) SEA 4
( 3) TOR 90-72 .553 | ( 3) MIL 3
( 4) KAN 87-75 .538 | ( 4) CLE 2
( 5) BOS 85-77 .524 | ( 5) BOS 2
( 6) MIL 84-78 .518 | ( 6) DET 2
( 7) BAL 83-79 .514 | ( 7) MIN 1
( 8) MIN 81-81 .501 | ( 8) CAL 1
( 9) TEX 79-83 .488 | ( 9) TOR 1
(10) SEA 77-85 .478 | (10) OAK -2
(11) CHW 75-86 .464 | (11) NYY -3
(12) CLE 75-87 .464 | (12) BAL -4
(13) NYY 71-90 .442 | (13) TEX -4
(14) DET 61-101 .375 | (14) KAN -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.006 in 1989
Age: as of July 1, 1989
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1989, the Jays scored 731 runs, allowed 651 runs, and
pitched 1467.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.34 in 1989)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1988-1990 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.34 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1989 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1989, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.34
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1989, estimated as 1.12*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.12*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.006*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.34 in 1989),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .19*(H-HR) (based on 1989 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .13*D in 1989
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .073*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1989
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .46*SB in 1989
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1998.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Mar 31
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