"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1988 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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The 1988 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Fred McGriff 153, Cecil Fielder 17, Rick Leach 4
Second Base: Manuel Lee 98, Nelson Liriano 80, Kelly Gruber 7,
Cecil Fielder 2, Pat Borders 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 154, Manuel Lee 19, Alexis Infante 2,
Kelly Gruber 1
Third Base: Kelly Gruber 156, Alexis Infante 9, Manuel Lee 8,
Rance Mulliniks 7, Cecil Fielder 3, Nelson Liriano 1,
Pat Borders 1
Outfield: George Bell 149, Jesse Barfield 136, Lloyd Moseby 125,
Sil Campusano 69, Rick Leach 49, Rob Ducey 26,
Lou Thornton 10, Kelly Gruber 2, Juan Beniquez 1
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 123, Pat Borders 43, Sal Butera 23
Starting Pitcher: Mike Flanagan 34, Dave Stieb 31, Jim Clancy 31,
Jimmy Key 21, Todd Stottlemyre 16, Jeff Musselman 15,
John Cerutti 12, Jose Nunez 2
Relief Pitcher: Duane Ward 64, Tom Henke 52, David Wells 41,
Mark Eichhorn 37, John Cerutti 34, Tony Castillo 14,
Todd Stottlemyre 12, Jose Nunez 11, Doug Bair 10,
Frank Wills 10, Jim Clancy 5, Mark Ross 3, Dave Stieb 1
Designated Hitter: Rance Mulliniks 106, Cecil Fielder 50, Rick Leach 25,
Nelson Liriano 11, George Bell 7, Pat Borders 7,
Alexis Infante 7, Sil Campusano 2, Manuel Lee 2,
Jesse Barfield 1, Lloyd Moseby 1, Juan Beniquez 1,
Lou Thornton 1, Kelly Gruber 1
Manager: Jimy Williams
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1988 in Context
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After a slow start, the Jays finished the year 22-7, making the final standings
closer than they were all year. League offense returned to normal. The A's
swept the Red Sox in the ALCS, but lost to the Dodgers in five in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Boston 5.13 | ( 1) Oakland 3.75 | ( 1) Oakland 104-58 .642
( 2) Oakland 4.83 | ( 2) Milwaukee 3.83 | ( 2) Minnesota 91-71 .562
( 3) NYYankees 4.77 | ( 3) Kansas City 4.08 | ( 3) Boston 89-73 .549
( 4) Minnesota 4.77 | ( 4) Detroit 4.10 | ( 4) Detroit 88-74 .543
( 5) TORONTO 4.74 | ( 5) TORONTO 4.22 | ( 5) Milwaukee 87-75 .537
( 6) Kansas City 4.44 | ( 6) Minnesota 4.22 | ( 5) TORONTO 87-75 .537
( 7) California 4.41 | ( 7) Boston 4.35 | ( 7) NYYankees 85-76 .528
( 8) Detroit 4.38 | ( 8) Cleveland 4.59 | ( 8) Kansas City 84-77 .522
( 9) Milwaukee 4.24 | ( 9) Texas 4.60 | ( 9) Cleveland 78-84 .481
(10) Seattle 4.18 | (10) NYYankees 4.62 | (10) California 75-87 .463
(11) Cleveland 4.18 | (11) Seattle 4.69 | (11) White Sox 71-90 .441
(12) Texas 3.98 | (12) White Sox 4.73 | (12) Texas 70-91 .435
(13) White Sox 3.95 | (13) California 4.77 | (13) Seattle 68-93 .422
(14) Baltimore 3.50 | (14) Baltimore 5.01 | (14) Baltimore 54-107 .335
Avg 4.40 Avg 4.40 1131-1131
Correcting the above for park factor, the '88 Jays rate, believe it or not, as
the 2nd-best hitting Jays team ever, with a team EqA of just .269. Only the
'93 team was better at scoring runs:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
OAK BOS NYY TOR MIN DET CAL KAN MIL CLE SEA CHW TEX BAL
.275 .273 .270 .269 .266 .264 .264 .260 .256 .252 .251 .249 .248 .240
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays pitching & defense was just
a little better than average (an EqA of .260 is average):
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIL OAK KAN MIN BOS TOR DET CLE TEX SEA NYY CHW CAL BAL
.246 .248 .252 .253 .255 .257 .257 .261 .262 .262 .267 .268 .272 .277
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was 0.993 in 1988, the only time the Ex was
rated a pitchers' park:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
SEA BOS CLE MIN TEX KAN MIL CHW TOR NYY BAL CAL OAK DET
4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 .8 .3 -.2 -.7 -1.2 -2.7 -3.2 -4.2 -4.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1987-1989 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'88 Hitters
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Fred McGriff's season (.324 EqA, 117 EqR) was the best ever for a Blue Jay to
this point, topping both Barfield of '86 and Bell of '87. Every regular had
an above-average EqA, though the "best outfield in baseball" was disappointing
in its final year together:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Fred McGriff 24 L 1B .324 .282 .374 .552 7.18 117 100 82 34 6 1 615
Rance Mulliniks 32 L DH .317 .300 .399 .475 6.83 68 49 48 12 1 0 393
Ernie Whitt 36 L C .282 .251 .351 .410 5.09 64 63 70 16 4 2 459
Kelly Gruber 26 R 3B .279 .278 .323 .438 4.98 87 75 81 16 23 5 607
George Bell 28 R LF .272 .269 .307 .446 4.68 89 78 97 24 4 2 648
Lloyd Moseby 28 L CF .271 .239 .338 .369 4.60 71 77 42 10 31 8 542
Tony Fernandez 26 S SS .268 .287 .333 .386 4.48 88 76 70 5 15 5 693
Jesse Barfield 28 R RF .267 .244 .305 .425 4.44 67 62 56 18 7 3 509
Manuel Lee 23 S 2B .261 .291 .337 .365 4.21 48 38 38 2 3 3 407
Cecil Fielder went to Japan after this season, where I doubt he played again at
2nd- or 3rd-base. The Jays presumably felt secure that rookie Pat Borders
could continue to cover at those positions:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Pat Borders 25 R C .265 .273 .287 .448 4.35 20 15 21 5 0 0 157
Cecil Fielder 24 R DH .260 .230 .287 .431 4.16 24 24 23 9 0 1 188
Rick Leach 31 L OF .258 .276 .336 .352 4.07 25 21 23 0 0 1 217
Nelson Liriano 24 S 2B .236 .264 .293 .333 3.27 29 36 23 3 12 5 287
Sil Campusano 21 R OF .231 .218 .265 .359 3.11 15 14 12 2 0 0 151
In 1987, "can't-miss" prospect Sil Campusano had a .264 batting average in
Syracuse, with an on-base percentage of .330 and slugging average of .451 --
adjusting 9% for major league competition (less than the normal 18% because
Syracuse was a pitchers' park), and assuming '87 scoring was inflated in the
minors as much as in the majors, Campy's '87 EqA was about .235. In other
words, his '88 stat line (above) was about what should have been expected.
The Jays overrated Campusano because they ignored Bill James' research on
interpreting minor league statistics, reported in his 1985 Abstract.
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rob Ducey 23 L OF .296 .315 .373 .426 5.74 9 15 6 0 1 0 59
Juan Beniquez 38 R DH .285 .293 .379 .379 5.24 9 9 8 1 0 0 66
Sal Butera 35 R C .219 .233 .246 .350 2.70 5 3 6 1 0 0 61
Alexis Infante 26 R 3B .193 .200 .294 .200 1.97 1 7 0 0 0 0 17
Lou Thornton 25 L OF -.212 .000 .000 .000 -2.49 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
Triples:
Lloyd Moseby 7, Jesse Barfield 5, George Bell 5, Kelly Gruber 5,
Tony Fernandez 4, Fred McGriff 4, Pat Borders 3, Manuel Lee 3,
Sil Campusano 2, Nelson Liriano 2, Ernie Whitt 2, Sal Butera 1,
Rob Ducey 1, Cecil Fielder 1, Rick Leach 1, Rance Mulliniks 1
Doubles (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 41, Fred McGriff 35, Kelly Gruber 33, George Bell 27,
Jesse Barfield 21, Rance Mulliniks 21, Lloyd Moseby 17, Manuel Lee 16
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 231, Fred McGriff 230, George Bell 199, Kelly Gruber 196,
Lloyd Moseby 183, Ernie Whitt 161, Rance Mulliniks 157, Jesse Barfield 155
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 467, George Bell 451, Kelly Gruber 416, Fred McGriff 386,
Lloyd Moseby 367, Jesse Barfield 357, Ernie Whitt 300, Manuel Lee 273
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Pat Borders 8.0, Cecil Fielder 3.8, Sil Campusano 3.7, Nelson Liriano 3.6,
Jesse Barfield 2.6, Manuel Lee 2.5, Kelly Gruber 2.4, George Bell 1.9,
Fred McGriff 1.9, Rick Leach 1.5, Tony Fernandez 1.4, Lloyd Moseby 1.3,
Rance Mulliniks 1.0, Ernie Whitt .6
Games Played (leaders):
Kelly Gruber 158, George Bell 156, Tony Fernandez 154, Fred McGriff 154,
Jesse Barfield 137, Lloyd Moseby 128, Ernie Whitt 127, Rance Mulliniks 119
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'88 Starting Pitchers
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Dave Stieb pitched 3 one-hitters, including his last two starts in which his
no-hit bid was broken up by weak hits with 2 outs in the 9th. Jimmy Key
pitched well after returning from elbow surgery. Jim Clancy left for Houston
after this season, where he had his worst years. Rookie Todd Stottlemyre was
knocked around:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 30 R 16 8 3.04 3.37 3.06 207.3 .230 .210 .285 .316 15 6.4
Jimmy Key 27 L 12 5 3.29 3.65 3.84 131.3 .245 .250 .292 .382 13 4.5
Mike Flanagan 36 L 13 13 4.18 4.63 4.83 211.0 .269 .271 .336 .415 23 4.2
Jim Clancy 32 R 11 13 4.49 4.98 4.65 196.3 .271 .272 .314 .433 26 5.4
Todd Stottlemyre 23 R 4 8 5.69 6.31 5.79 98.0 .297 .283 .360 .460 15 6.2
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jeff Musselman 25 L 8 5 3.18 3.52 3.77 85.0 .242 .252 .317 .349 4 4.1
Games Started:
Mike Flanagan 34, Dave Stieb 31, Jim Clancy 31, Jimmy Key 21,
Todd Stottlemyre 16, Jeff Musselman 15, John Cerutti 12, Jose Nunez 2
Complete Games:
Dave Stieb 8, Jim Clancy 4, Mike Flanagan 2, Jimmy Key 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 6.5, Jimmy Key 6.3, Mike Flanagan 6.2, Jeff Musselman 5.7,
Jim Clancy 5.5, Todd Stottlemyre 3.5
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'88 Relief Pitchers
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The Terminator did okay. John Cerutti gave the Jays a lot of good innings.
Duane Ward had his breakthrough year:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke 30 R 4 4 2.91 3.23 3.75 68.0 .238 .237 .303 .360 6 8.7
John Cerutti 28 L 6 7 3.13 3.47 4.24 123.7 .248 .256 .317 .389 12 4.7
Duane Ward 24 R 9 3 3.30 3.66 4.11 111.7 .249 .245 .341 .338 5 7.3
Mark Eichhorn 27 R 0 3 4.18 4.63 5.21 66.7 .273 .304 .369 .410 3 3.8
David Wells 25 L 3 5 4.62 5.12 5.63 64.3 .283 .269 .352 .471 12 7.8
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tony Castillo 25 L 1 0 3.00 3.32 2.51 15.0 .222 .200 .231 .359 2 8.4
Mark Ross 30 R 0 0 4.91 5.44 2.46 7.3 .250 .185 .290 .230 0 4.9
Jose Nunez 24 R 0 1 3.07 3.40 4.99 29.3 .257 .259 .360 .399 3 5.5
Doug Bair 38 R 0 0 4.05 4.49 4.83 13.3 .267 .280 .321 .459 2 5.4
Frank Wills 29 R 0 0 5.23 5.80 4.54 20.7 .279 .272 .322 .406 2 8.3
Relief Appearances:
Duane Ward 64, Tom Henke 52, David Wells 41, Mark Eichhorn 37,
John Cerutti 34, Tony Castillo 14, Todd Stottlemyre 12, Jose Nunez 11,
Doug Bair 10, Frank Wills 10, Jim Clancy 5, Mark Ross 3, Dave Stieb 1
Saves:
Tom Henke 25, Duane Ward 15, David Wells 4, John Cerutti 1, Jim Clancy 1,
Mark Eichhorn 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
John Cerutti 2.7, Mark Ross 2.4, Jose Nunez 2.3, Frank Wills 2.1,
Mark Eichhorn 1.8, Duane Ward 1.7, David Wells 1.6, Doug Bair 1.3,
Tom Henke 1.3, Tony Castillo 1.1
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1988 American League Leaders
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23-year-old Jose Canseco had his "40-40" year and was the unanimous MVP winner,
that despite playing in the league's toughest park for hitters. I probably
would have put Wade Boggs 2nd on my ballot, but the voters had Greenwell 2nd,
while Boggs finished 6th. Fred McGriff was 17th in the voting, and Tony
Fernandez was 26th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 352 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .347 .366 .478 .490 8.97 135 128 58 5 2 3 709
Jose Canseco OAK OF .336 .307 .385 .569 7.61 146 120 124 42 40 16 688
Dave Winfield NYY OF .328 .322 .396 .530 7.39 120 96 107 25 9 4 628
Mike Greenwell BOS OF .327 .325 .412 .531 7.73 126 86 119 22 16 8 677
Fred McGriff TOR 1B .324 .282 .374 .552 7.18 117 100 82 34 6 1 615
George Brett KAN 1B .320 .306 .390 .509 7.08 121 90 103 24 14 3 671
Kirby Puckett MIN OF .318 .356 .378 .545 7.10 124 109 121 24 6 7 680
Kent Hrbek MIN 1B .317 .312 .392 .520 7.08 102 75 76 25 0 3 577
Rance Mulliniks TOR DH .317 .300 .399 .475 6.83 68 49 48 12 1 0 393
Dave Henderson OAK OF .316 .304 .363 .525 6.53 102 100 94 24 2 4 554
Alvin Davis SEA 1B .313 .295 .412 .462 6.94 94 67 69 18 1 1 573
Rickey Henderson NYY OF .311 .305 .395 .399 6.49 109 118 50 6 93 13 636
Danny Tartabull KAN OF .310 .274 .369 .515 6.57 102 80 102 26 8 5 583
Gary Gaetti MIN 3B .310 .301 .351 .551 6.66 90 66 88 28 7 4 504
Teddy Higuera and Roger Clemens were probably the best two pitchers overall in
the league, though Higuera got no Cy Young votes, and Clemens just finished
6th. Clemens pitched in Game 2 of the ALCS, allowing 3 runs in 7 innings and
leaving the game in a tie. Dave Stieb was back among the leaders, though his
Innings Pitched totals were down. Frank Viola won the Cy Young, Eck 2nd,
Gubicza 3rd, Stewart 4th, Bruce Hurst 5th, Clemens 6th.
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 139.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Teddy Higuera MIL 16 9 2.45 2.72 2.57 227.3 .212 .207 .261 .308 15 7.6
Roger Clemens BOS 18 12 2.93 3.25 2.84 264.0 .222 .220 .266 .321 17 9.9
Mark Gubicza KAN 20 8 2.70 2.99 3.19 269.7 .226 .234 .292 .321 11 6.1
Allan Anderson MIN 16 9 2.45 2.72 3.66 202.3 .227 .261 .295 .376 14 3.7
Frank Viola MIN 24 7 2.64 2.93 3.46 255.3 .227 .245 .285 .362 20 6.8
Dave Stieb TOR 16 8 3.04 3.37 3.06 207.3 .230 .210 .285 .316 15 6.4
Jeff Robinson DET 13 6 2.98 3.30 3.18 172.0 .235 .197 .281 .330 19 6.0
Greg Swindell CLE 18 14 3.20 3.55 3.55 242.0 .236 .252 .286 .367 18 6.7
Don August MIL 13 7 3.09 3.42 3.81 148.3 .241 .245 .305 .364 12 4.0
Charlie Hough TEX 15 16 3.32 3.68 3.71 252.0 .241 .221 .315 .335 20 6.2
Wes Gardner BOS 8 6 3.50 3.88 3.76 149.0 .243 .220 .302 .360 17 6.4
Dave LaPoint CHW 10 11 3.40 3.77 3.59 161.3 .243 .245 .299 .350 10 4.4
Mike Moore SEA 9 15 3.78 4.19 3.52 228.7 .243 .232 .285 .367 24 7.2
Dave Stewart OAK 21 12 3.23 3.58 3.52 275.7 .243 .234 .308 .329 14 6.3
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Paul Mirabella MIL 2 2 1.65 1.83 2.66 60.0 .199 .204 .274 .292 3 5.0
Doug Jones CLE 3 4 2.27 2.52 2.28 83.3 .202 .218 .255 .279 1 7.8
Craig McMurtry TEX 3 3 2.25 2.49 2.52 60.0 .206 .180 .265 .290 5 5.3
Dennis Eckersley OAK 4 2 2.35 2.60 2.10 72.7 .206 .198 .230 .298 5 8.7
Bryan Harvey CAL 7 5 2.13 2.36 2.65 76.0 .211 .214 .267 .306 4 7.9
Mike Henneman DET 9 6 1.87 2.07 2.92 91.3 .211 .218 .271 .330 7 5.7
Dan Plesac MIL 1 2 2.41 2.67 2.93 52.3 .217 .234 .278 .318 2 8.9
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Theory Stuff, 1988
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For the 3rd year in a row (the Jimy Williams years, some would point out), the
Jays fell short of their Pythagorean record:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) OAK 100-62 .615 | ( 1) BOS 4
( 2) BOS 93-69 .575 | ( 2) SEA 4
( 3) MIN 90-72 .555 | ( 3) KAN 3
( 4) TOR 90-72 .552 | ( 4) TOR 3
( 5) MIL 89-73 .546 | ( 5) MIL 2
( 6) KAN 87-74 .538 | ( 6) BAL 1
( 7) DET 86-76 .530 | ( 7) CAL 0
( 8) NYY 83-78 .514 | ( 8) TEX 0
( 9) CAL 75-87 .465 | ( 9) MIN -1
(10) CLE 74-88 .457 | (10) DET -2
(11) SEA 72-89 .448 | (11) NYY -2
(12) TEX 70-91 .435 | (12) CHW -4
(13) CHW 67-94 .417 | (13) CLE -4
(14) BAL 55-106 .341 | (14) OAK -4
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.009 in 1988
Age: as of July 1, 1988
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1988, the Jays scored 763 runs, allowed 680 runs, and
pitched 1449.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.40 in 1988)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1987-1989 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.40 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1988 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1988, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.40
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1988, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.009*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.40 in 1988),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1988 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .12*D in 1988
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .071*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1988
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .46*SB in 1988
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, MVP & Cy Young results, and RF, CF & LF positions are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Mar 23
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.