"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1987 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1987 Toronto Blue Jays
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Games Played By Position:
First Base: Willie Upshaw 146, Cecil Fielder 16, Fred McGriff 14,
Rick Leach 5, Juan Beniquez 2
Second Base: Garth Iorg 91, Nelson Liriano 37, Mike Sharperson 32,
Manuel Lee 27, Kelly Gruber 7, George Bell 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 146, Manuel Lee 26, Kelly Gruber 21,
Rance Mulliniks 1
Third Base: Kelly Gruber 119, Rance Mulliniks 96, Garth Iorg 28,
Cecil Fielder 2, George Bell 1
Outfield: Jesse Barfield 158, Lloyd Moseby 153, George Bell 148,
Rick Leach 43, Rob Ducey 28, Juan Beniquez 7,
Charlie Moore 5, Lou Thornton 4, Kelly Gruber 2
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 131, Charlie Moore 44, Jeff DeWillis 13,
Greg Myers 7, Matt Stark 5
Starting Pitcher: Jim Clancy 37, Jimmy Key 36, Dave Stieb 31,
John Cerutti 21, Joe Johnson 14, Jose Nunez 9,
Mike Flanagan 7, Phil Niekro 3, David Wells 2,
Jeff Musselman 1, Duane Ward 1
Relief Pitcher: Mark Eichhorn 89, Tom Henke 72, Jeff Musselman 67,
Jose Nunez 28, John Cerutti 23, Gary Lavelle 23,
David Wells 16, Duane Ward 11, Don Gordon 5,
Dave Stieb 2
Designated Hitter: Fred McGriff 90, Cecil Fielder 55, Rick Leach 30,
Rance Mulliniks 22, Juan Beniquez 15, George Bell 7,
Lou Thornton 6, Garth Iorg 5, Lloyd Moseby 2,
Manuel Lee 1, Rob Ducey 1, Kelly Gruber 1
Manager: Jimy Williams
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 in Context
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The '87 Jays had a 3-1/2 game lead with 7 games left in the season, but lost
their final 7, including 3 one-run losses in Detroit, to give up the division
title. The Tigers were then stunned by the Twins in the ALCS, who went on to
deafen the Cards in the Series. While tame compared to mid-90s standards,
offense jumped a half-run per game on the decade norm, making Equivalent
Average especially important for putting player performance in context:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Detroit 5.54 | ( 1) TORONTO 4.05 | ( 1) Detroit 98-64 .605
( 2) Milwaukee 5.30 | ( 2) Kansas City 4.37 | ( 2) TORONTO 96-66 .593
( 3) Boston 5.28 | ( 3) Detroit 4.54 | ( 3) Milwaukee 91-71 .562
( 4) TORONTO 5.23 | ( 4) White Sox 4.64 | ( 4) NYYankees 89-73 .549
( 5) Texas 5.13 | ( 5) NYYankees 4.72 | ( 5) Minnesota 85-77 .525
( 6) Oakland 5.02 | ( 6) Oakland 4.91 | ( 6) Kansas City 83-79 .512
( 7) Minnesota 4.96 | ( 7) California 4.96 | ( 7) Oakland 81-81 .500
( 8) NYYankees 4.90 | ( 8) Milwaukee 5.02 | ( 8) Seattle 78-84 .481
( 9) Seattle 4.78 | ( 9) Seattle 5.04 | ( 8) Boston 78-84 .481
(10) California 4.76 | (10) Minnesota 5.08 | (10) White Sox 77-85 .475
(11) Cleveland 4.69 | (11) Boston 5.17 | (11) California 75-87 .463
(12) White Sox 4.65 | (12) Texas 5.29 | (11) Texas 75-87 .463
(13) Baltimore 4.56 | (13) Baltimore 5.50 | (13) Baltimore 67-95 .414
(14) Kansas City 4.52 | (14) Cleveland 6.05 | (14) Cleveland 61-101 .377
Avg 4.95 Avg 4.95 1134-1134
Correcting the above for park factor (and, of course, the extra-high league
offense), the '87 Jays just had a little better than average offense, not the
standout offense that was widely reported. The World Series champs had below-
average hitting:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET OAK TOR BOS MIL TEX NYY CAL MIN BAL CLE CHW SEA KAN
.277 .269 .264 .264 .264 .264 .261 .259 .256 .254 .253 .251 .251 .249
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '87 Jays had awesome pitching &
defense, almost as good as in 1985. The World Series champs were just
slightly better-than-average (an EqA of .260 is average):
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TOR KAN CHW DET SEA NYY MIL MIN BOS CAL OAK TEX BAL CLE
.239 .246 .251 .256 .257 .257 .259 .259 .262 .264 .267 .267 .274 .280
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was just 1.012 in 1987, a slight hitters'
park:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 4 6 7 7 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEA MIN MIL BOS CHW KAN TOR CLE TEX NYY BAL CAL DET OAK
5.2 3.7 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 -.3 -1.8 -2.3 -3.3 -4.8 -7.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1986-1988 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'87 Hitters
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
George Bell's career year at age 27 (.309 EqA, 113 EqR) was very similar to
Jesse Barfield's career year at age 26 (.308 EqA, 114 EqR). Tony Fernandez
had his best year but it ended ten days early from injury. Barfield had an
off-year. Willie Upshaw's last year as a Jay should have been spent cheering
on Fred and Cecil more:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
George Bell 27 R LF .309 .308 .350 .605 7.36 113 111 134 47 5 1 649
Fred McGriff 23 L DH .296 .247 .375 .505 6.62 54 58 43 20 3 2 355
Rance Mulliniks 31 L 3B .295 .310 .374 .500 6.56 55 37 44 11 1 1 366
Lloyd Moseby 27 L CF .287 .282 .358 .473 6.17 97 106 96 26 39 7 662
Tony Fernandez 25 S SS .281 .322 .377 .426 5.81 85 90 67 5 32 12 629
Ernie Whitt 35 L C .270 .269 .335 .455 5.26 62 57 75 19 0 1 490
Jesse Barfield 27 R RF .267 .263 .329 .458 5.15 82 89 84 28 3 5 648
Willie Upshaw 30 L 1B .248 .244 .321 .391 4.26 62 68 58 15 10 11 570
Kelly Gruber 25 R 3B .236 .235 .271 .399 3.75 36 50 36 12 12 2 358
The Jays' DH platoon was great. The 2nd-base position was not -- Nelson
Liriano was the best of the bunch, but Garth Iorg, in what turned out to be his
last big-league year, played there the most and was awful:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Cecil Fielder 23 R DH .295 .269 .344 .560 6.57 31 30 32 14 0 1 195
Rick Leach 30 L OF .269 .282 .364 .405 5.21 27 26 25 3 0 1 220
Nelson Liriano 23 S 2B .241 .241 .310 .342 3.97 18 29 10 2 13 2 174
Charlie Moore 34 R C .233 .215 .300 .355 3.65 11 15 7 1 0 0 120
Manuel Lee 22 S 2B .227 .256 .291 .347 3.42 11 14 11 1 2 0 127
Garth Iorg 32 R 2B .193 .210 .260 .284 2.27 20 35 30 4 2 2 331
Mike Sharperson 25 R 2B .191 .208 .262 .271 2.22 6 4 9 0 2 1 103
On July 14/87, the Jays traded RHP Luis Aquino to the Royals for Juan Beniquez,
who hit pretty well:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Lou Thornton 24 L OF .316 .500 .667 .500 7.83 1 5 0 0 0 1 3
Juan Beniquez 37 R DH .289 .284 .326 .556 6.27 13 6 21 5 0 0 86
Rob Ducey 22 L OF .219 .188 .304 .271 3.12 4 12 6 1 2 0 56
Jeff DeWillis 22 R C .161 .120 .185 .280 1.44 1 2 2 1 0 0 27
Alexis Infante 25 R PR .000 .000 .000 .000 .00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Greg Myers 21 L C -.136 .111 .111 .111 -.95 0 1 0 0 0 0 9
Matt Stark 22 R C -.158 .083 .083 .083 -1.37 -1 0 0 0 0 0 12
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 8, George Bell 4, Lloyd Moseby 4, Willie Upshaw 4,
Jesse Barfield 3, Kelly Gruber 3, Manuel Lee 3, Nelson Liriano 2,
Juan Beniquez 1, Cecil Fielder 1, Rick Leach 1, Charlie Moore 1,
Rance Mulliniks 1, Mike Sharperson 1, Ernie Whitt 1
Doubles (leaders):
George Bell 32, Tony Fernandez 29, Rance Mulliniks 28, Lloyd Moseby 27,
Jesse Barfield 25, Ernie Whitt 24, Willie Upshaw 22, Fred McGriff 16
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 237, Lloyd Moseby 237, George Bell 227, Jesse Barfield 213,
Willie Upshaw 183, Ernie Whitt 164, Rance Mulliniks 137, Fred McGriff 133
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Jesse Barfield 440, Lloyd Moseby 432, George Bell 423, Tony Fernandez 404,
Willie Upshaw 398, Ernie Whitt 327, Kelly Gruber 263, Garth Iorg 247
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Kelly Gruber 4.1, Juan Beniquez 2.6, Garth Iorg 2.5, Jesse Barfield 2.4,
Cecil Fielder 2.4, Manuel Lee 2.2, Mike Sharperson 2.1, George Bell 1.9,
Lloyd Moseby 1.8, Fred McGriff 1.7, Rance Mulliniks 1.6,
Nelson Liriano 1.4, Willie Upshaw 1.3, Ernie Whitt 1.1, Rick Leach 1.0,
Tony Fernandez .9, Charlie Moore .9
Games Played (leaders):
Jesse Barfield 159, George Bell 156, Lloyd Moseby 155, Willie Upshaw 150,
Tony Fernandez 146, Kelly Gruber 138, Ernie Whitt 135, Rance Mulliniks 124
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'87 Starting Pitchers
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Key's career year at age 26 (261 IP, .215 EqA) was very similar to Dave
Stieb's age 27 season in '85 (265 IP, .216 EqA). Jim Clancy had his best year
since 1982. Stieb was a better-than-average pitcher but got the quick hook a
lot:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jimmy Key 26 L 17 8 2.76 3.07 3.12 261.0 .215 .221 .272 .347 24 5.6
Jim Clancy 31 R 15 11 3.54 3.93 4.26 241.3 .240 .255 .315 .392 24 6.7
Dave Stieb 29 R 13 9 4.09 4.54 4.15 185.0 .246 .239 .325 .364 16 5.6
John Cerutti 27 L 11 4 4.40 4.89 5.11 151.3 .260 .251 .321 .458 30 5.5
Joe Johnson 25 R 3 5 5.13 5.70 5.42 66.7 .271 .289 .335 .467 10 3.6
Phil Niekro never pitched well after age 47, including when the Jays gave him a
try. On Aug 31/87, the Jays traded RHP Oswald Peraza and RHP Jose Mesa to the
O's for Mike Flanagan, who pitched great. The 21-year-old Mesa didn't have a
good major league season until 7 years later:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mike Flanagan 35 L 3 2 2.37 2.63 3.54 49.3 .214 .237 .292 .340 3 7.8
Phil Niekro 48 R 0 2 8.25 9.17 8.27 12.0 .325 .306 .393 .608 4 5.3
Games Started:
Jim Clancy 37, Jimmy Key 36, Dave Stieb 31, John Cerutti 21, Joe Johnson 14,
Jose Nunez 9, Mike Flanagan 7, Phil Niekro 3, David Wells 2,
Jeff Musselman 1, Duane Ward 1
Complete Games:
Jimmy Key 8, Jim Clancy 5, Dave Stieb 3, John Cerutti 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jimmy Key 7.3, Mike Flanagan 7.0, Jim Clancy 6.5, Dave Stieb 5.6,
Joe Johnson 4.8, Phil Niekro 4.0, John Cerutti 3.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'87 Relief Pitchers
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Terminator had one of his 7 awesome years (not counting 6 other good years,
or that fortuitous clunker in '84), and had his career-high in Innings Pitched.
Ike was still very effective, and Jeff Musselman gave the Jays a good lefty in
the pen:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke 29 R 0 6 2.49 2.77 2.52 94.0 .201 .188 .245 .319 10 12.3
Mark Eichhorn 26 R 10 6 3.17 3.52 4.02 127.7 .232 .234 .310 .376 14 6.8
Jeff Musselman 24 L 12 5 4.15 4.61 4.37 89.0 .249 .237 .349 .359 7 5.5
Jose Nunez 23 R 5 2 5.01 5.57 5.17 97.0 .268 .256 .361 .415 12 9.2
Gary Lavelle 38 L 2 3 5.53 6.14 6.78 27.7 .288 .313 .410 .441 2 5.5
Rookie David Wells pitched well, but that prospect from the Braves was still
wild and ineffective:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Don Gordon 27 R 0 0 4.09 4.54 3.42 11.0 .237 .200 .256 .388 2 2.5
David Wells 24 L 4 3 3.99 4.43 5.24 29.3 .257 .311 .374 .390 0 9.8
Duane Ward 23 R 1 0 6.94 7.71 7.03 11.7 .304 .326 .473 .409 0 7.7
Relief Appearances:
Mark Eichhorn 89, Tom Henke 72, Jeff Musselman 67, Jose Nunez 28,
John Cerutti 23, Gary Lavelle 23, David Wells 16, Duane Ward 11,
Don Gordon 5, Dave Stieb 2
Saves:
Tom Henke 34, Mark Eichhorn 4, Jeff Musselman 3, Gary Lavelle 1,
David Wells 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jose Nunez 2.6, Don Gordon 2.2, David Wells 1.6, Mark Eichhorn 1.4,
Jeff Musselman 1.3, Tom Henke 1.3, Gary Lavelle 1.2, Duane Ward 1.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 American League Leaders
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some people argue that Alan Trammell should have won the MVP instead of George
Bell because Trammell played a tougher position. In fact, Trammell was the
better hitter too. The league's best hitter was actually Wade Boggs, though
Trammell would get my MVP vote. In the actual voting, Bell was 1st, Trammell
a close 2nd, Fernandez 8th, Boggs 9th, and tied for 13th were Tom Henke and
former-Jay Doyle Alexander:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 357 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .346 .363 .465 .588 9.86 126 108 89 24 1 3 656
Paul Molitor MIL DH .334 .353 .436 .566 9.10 101 114 75 16 45 10 534
Mark McGwire OAK 1B .327 .289 .369 .618 7.83 123 97 118 49 1 1 628
Alan Trammell DET SS .327 .343 .403 .551 8.03 122 109 105 28 21 2 657
Dwight Evans BOS 1B .322 .305 .419 .569 8.29 114 109 123 34 4 6 647
Rickey Henderson NYY OF .322 .291 .420 .497 7.93 78 78 37 17 41 8 438
Don Mattingly NYY 1B .313 .327 .382 .559 7.38 107 93 115 30 1 4 620
Ken Phelps SEA DH .310 .259 .403 .548 7.72 67 68 68 27 1 1 412
Mike Greenwell BOS OF .310 .328 .380 .570 7.50 76 71 89 19 5 4 447
Danny Tartabull KAN OF .309 .309 .392 .541 7.45 109 95 101 34 9 4 661
George Bell TOR OF .309 .308 .350 .605 7.36 113 111 134 47 5 1 649
Kent Hrbek MIN 1B .308 .285 .392 .545 7.49 91 85 90 34 5 2 561
Brook Jacoby CLE 3B .307 .300 .385 .541 7.24 100 73 69 32 2 3 615
Larry Sheets BAL OF .306 .316 .358 .563 6.99 85 74 94 31 1 1 500
Jimmy Key was tougher to score against than Roger Clemens, but Clemens pitched
more innings. Using the method described in the '84 article, Key comes out
ahead, but it was very close. In the actual Cy Young voting, Clemens was 1st,
Key 2nd, Dave Stewart 3rd, Doyle Alexander 4th, playoff-hero Frank Viola 6th:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 123.7 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jimmy Key TOR 17 8 2.76 3.07 3.12 261.0 .215 .221 .272 .347 24 5.6
Roger Clemens BOS 20 9 2.97 3.30 3.41 281.7 .221 .235 .291 .344 19 8.2
Frank Viola MIN 17 10 2.90 3.22 3.85 251.7 .224 .241 .290 .386 29 7.0
Bret Saberhagen KAN 18 10 3.36 3.73 3.86 257.0 .232 .252 .291 .392 27 5.7
C Leibrandt KAN 16 11 3.41 3.79 4.15 240.3 .237 .253 .308 .385 23 5.7
Teddy Higuera MIL 18 10 3.85 4.28 3.85 261.7 .238 .241 .303 .370 24 8.3
Mark Langston SEA 19 13 3.84 4.27 4.18 272.0 .239 .238 .315 .380 30 8.7
Floyd Bannister CHW 16 11 3.58 3.98 4.25 228.7 .240 .246 .286 .428 38 4.9
Jim Clancy TOR 15 11 3.54 3.93 4.26 241.3 .240 .255 .315 .392 24 6.7
Jack Morris DET 18 11 3.38 3.76 4.04 266.0 .241 .228 .294 .394 39 7.0
Charlie Hough TEX 18 13 3.79 4.21 4.02 285.3 .242 .223 .304 .373 36 7.0
Charles Hudson NYY 11 7 3.61 4.01 4.13 154.7 .242 .239 .308 .391 19 5.8
Jose DeLeon CHW 11 12 4.02 4.47 4.20 206.0 .245 .230 .316 .374 24 6.7
Dave Stewart OAK 20 13 3.68 4.09 3.79 261.3 .245 .229 .304 .355 24 7.1
. . .
Doyle Alexander DET 9 0 1.53 1.70 2.32 88.3 .185 .201 .263 .279 3 4.5
The Terminator was the league's best reliever. I don't think he felt haunted
by Gibson's home run with a week to go because the pitch was a good fastball.
Jimy might be haunted that he didn't use Henke in the last week of the season,
especially the Saturday game lost in extra innings:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke TOR 0 6 2.49 2.77 2.52 94.0 .201 .188 .245 .319 10 12.3
Dan Plesac MIL 5 6 2.61 2.90 3.16 79.3 .211 .213 .270 .341 8 10.1
Dennis Eckersley OAK 6 8 3.03 3.37 3.04 115.7 .225 .228 .257 .356 11 8.8
Dale Mohorcic TEX 7 6 2.99 3.32 3.58 99.3 .225 .244 .282 .390 11 4.3
Bill Wilkinson SEA 3 4 3.66 4.07 3.30 76.3 .226 .223 .278 .360 8 8.6
Bobby Thigpen CHW 7 5 2.73 3.03 4.18 89.0 .227 .256 .306 .403 10 5.3
Mike Henneman DET 11 3 2.98 3.31 3.65 96.7 .230 .238 .297 .360 8 7.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theory Stuff, 1987
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some people say pitching is 90% of the game. Some people say strong bullpens
especially help you win games. The '87 Jays had the best pitching and a strong
bullpen, but were a critical 4 wins short of their Pythagorean record. The
Jays' Pythagorean percentage was almost as good as that of the '85 team (.614
vs .615). Some people complained when a 2nd-place team won the World Series in
'97, but 10 years earlier the team with the 5th-best record, and a below-
average Pythagorean record, won it all (of course, some people complained about
that too):
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) TOR 100-62 .614 | ( 1) BOS 5
( 2) DET 96-66 .590 | ( 2) CHW 4
( 3) MIL 85-77 .525 | ( 3) TEX 4
( 4) NYY 84-78 .518 | ( 4) TOR 4
( 5) KAN 84-78 .516 | ( 5) CAL 3
( 6) OAK 83-79 .510 | ( 6) OAK 2
( 7) BOS 83-79 .509 | ( 7) CLE 1
( 8) CHW 81-81 .501 | ( 8) KAN 1
( 9) MIN 79-83 .489 | ( 9) BAL 0
(10) TEX 79-83 .486 | (10) SEA -1
(11) CAL 78-84 .481 | (11) DET -2
(12) SEA 77-85 .476 | (12) NYY -5
(13) BAL 67-95 .415 | (13) MIN -6
(14) CLE 62-100 .386 | (14) MIL -6
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.005 in 1987
Age: as of July 1, 1987
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1987, the Jays scored 845 runs, allowed 655 runs, and
pitched 1454.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.95 in 1987)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1986-1988 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.95 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1987 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1987, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.95
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1987, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.005*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.95 in 1987),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1987 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .13*D in 1987
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .080*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1987
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .45*SB in 1987
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Access count for this page:
Last Updated: 1998 Mar 8
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.