"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1986 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1986 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Willie Upshaw 154, Cecil Fielder 7, Rick Leach 7,
Cliff Johnson 1, Fred McGriff 1, Damaso Garcia 1
Second Base: Damaso Garcia 106, Garth Iorg 52, Manuel Lee 29,
Kelly Gruber 14, Rance Mulliniks 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 163, Manuel Lee 5, Kelly Gruber 5,
Garth Iorg 2
Third Base: Rance Mulliniks 110, Garth Iorg 90, Kelly Gruber 42,
Cecil Fielder 2, George Bell 2, Manuel Lee 2
Outfield: Jesse Barfield 157, George Bell 147, Lloyd Moseby 147,
Rick Leach 39, Ron Shepherd 32, Kelly Gruber 9,
Cecil Fielder 1
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 127, Buck Martinez 78, Jeff Hearron 12
Starting Pitcher: Jimmy Key 35, Jim Clancy 34, Dave Stieb 34,
John Cerutti 20, Doyle Alexander 17, Joe Johnson 15,
Jim Acker 5, Dennis Lamp 2, Duane Ward 1
Relief Pitcher: Mark Eichhorn 69, Tom Henke 63, Bill Caudill 40,
Dennis Lamp 38, Jim Acker 18, John Cerutti 14,
Don Gordon 14, Stan Clarke 10, Luis Aquino 7,
Jeff Musselman 6, Steve Davis 3, Dave Stieb 3,
Mickey Mahler 2, Joe Johnson 1, Jimmy Key 1,
Duane Ward 1
Designated Hitter: Cliff Johnson 95, Rick Leach 42, Cecil Fielder 22,
Ron Shepherd 16, Kelly Gruber 14, George Bell 11,
Damaso Garcia 11, Rance Mulliniks 5, Lloyd Moseby 3,
Fred McGriff 2, Willie Upshaw 1, Buck Martinez 1
Manager: Jimy Williams
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1986 in Context
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Bobby Cox and his magic for strong starting pitching left for Atlanta in the
off-season. Under new manager Jimy Williams, the Jays' rotation collapsed and
though we all knew by the end of the year the Jays had the best team, it was
too late to catch the Sox. The Sox overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Angels
in the ALCS, but then blew a 3-2 lead in the Series to the Mets:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Cleveland 5.17 | ( 1) Kansas City 4.20 | ( 1) Boston 95-66 .590
( 2) Boston 5.00 | ( 2) California 4.23 | ( 2) California 92-70 .568
( 3) Detroit 4.97 | ( 3) White Sox 4.36 | ( 3) NYYankees 90-72 .556
( 4) NYYankees 4.97 | ( 4) Boston 4.38 | ( 4) Detroit 87-75 .537
( 5) TORONTO 4.93 | ( 5) Detroit 4.45 | ( 4) Texas 87-75 .537
( 6) California 4.86 | ( 6) TORONTO 4.47 | ( 6) TORONTO 86-76 .531
( 7) Texas 4.78 | ( 7) NYYankees 4.60 | ( 7) Cleveland 84-78 .519
( 8) Minnesota 4.65 | ( 8) Texas 4.61 | ( 8) Milwaukee 77-84 .478
( 9) Oakland 4.59 | ( 9) Milwaukee 4.61 | ( 9) Kansas City 76-86 .469
(10) Seattle 4.49 | (10) Baltimore 4.76 | ( 9) Oakland 76-86 .469
(11) Baltimore 4.44 | (11) Oakland 4.77 | (11) Baltimore 73-89 .451
(12) Milwaukee 4.19 | (12) Seattle 5.22 | (12) White Sox 72-90 .444
(13) Kansas City 4.09 | (13) Cleveland 5.23 | (13) Minnesota 71-91 .438
(14) White Sox 4.02 | (14) Minnesota 5.27 | (14) Seattle 67-95 .414
Avg 4.65 Avg 4.65 1133-1133
Correcting the above for park factor, the '86 Jays had improved hitting on
the '85 team, but still not much better than average (EqA of .260 is average):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CLE NYY DET BOS OAK CAL TOR TEX MIN BAL SEA MIL KAN CHW
.273 .269 .268 .268 .266 .266 .265 .261 .257 .256 .255 .246 .245 .243
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays still had better-than-
average pitching & defense, but not awesome pitching like in '85:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
KAN CHW CAL BOS TOR MIL DET TEX NYY BAL MIN OAK SEA CLE
.248 .251 .252 .254 .255 .256 .256 .257 .261 .264 .270 .271 .271 .274
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was just 1.012 in 1986, only a slight hitters'
park. Fenway was essentially park-neutral:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 2 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 14
MIL MIN CHW TEX KAN TOR SEA BOS DET BAL CLE NYY CAL OAK
3.2 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 -.2 -.7 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -7.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1985-1987 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'86 Hitters
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Jesse Barfield was once again the Jays' best hitter, and George Bell also had
100+ Equivalent Runs. Ernie Whitt was a better-hitting catcher than I
realized at the time. Tony Fernandez had a lower EqA than I would have
thought, but still excellent for a shortstop. After the season, the Jays
traded Damaso Garcia and Luis Leal to the Braves for RHP Craig McMurtry:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jesse Barfield 26 R RF .308 .289 .363 .559 6.92 114 107 108 40 8 8 658
George Bell 26 R LF .298 .309 .350 .532 6.37 111 101 108 31 7 8 682
Cliff Johnson 38 R DH .276 .250 .351 .426 5.24 51 48 55 15 0 1 388
Ernie Whitt 34 L C .272 .268 .328 .448 5.05 56 48 56 16 0 1 430
Tony Fernandez 24 S SS .270 .310 .336 .428 4.98 93 91 65 10 25 12 714
Rance Mulliniks 30 L 3B .270 .259 .340 .417 4.94 49 50 45 11 1 1 391
Lloyd Moseby 26 L CF .267 .253 .326 .418 4.83 84 89 86 21 32 11 653
Willie Upshaw 29 L 1B .262 .251 .341 .368 4.59 77 85 60 9 23 5 651
Damaso Garcia 31 R 2B .242 .281 .302 .375 3.77 45 57 46 6 9 6 437
This was Buck Martinez' last year:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rick Leach 29 L DH .274 .309 .344 .435 5.17 34 35 39 5 0 0 259
Garth Iorg 31 R 3B .238 .260 .303 .352 3.61 34 30 44 3 3 0 347
Buck Martinez 37 R C .201 .181 .272 .269 2.39 12 13 12 2 0 0 180
Kelly Gruber 24 R 3B .197 .196 .223 .343 2.25 10 20 15 5 2 5 148
Cecil Fielder won the DH job from Cliff Johnson in the spring but was sent
back to Syracuse part way through the season. Fred McGriff made his major
league debut:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jeff Hearron 24 R C .214 .217 .308 .261 2.78 2 2 4 0 0 0 26
Ron Shepherd 25 R OF .209 .203 .236 .348 2.61 6 16 4 2 0 0 72
Cecil Fielder 22 R DH .194 .157 .213 .325 2.16 6 7 13 4 0 0 89
Manuel Lee 21 S 2B .181 .205 .244 .269 1.83 4 8 7 1 0 1 82
Fred McGriff 22 L 1B .116 .200 .200 .200 .60 0 1 0 0 0 0 5
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 9, George Bell 6, Willie Upshaw 6, Lloyd Moseby 5,
Jesse Barfield 2, Ernie Whitt 2, Kelly Gruber 1, Garth Iorg 1,
Cliff Johnson 1, Rick Leach 1, Manuel Lee 1
Doubles (leaders):
George Bell 38, Jesse Barfield 35, Tony Fernandez 33, Willie Upshaw 28,
Lloyd Moseby 24, Damaso Garcia 22, Rance Mulliniks 22, Garth Iorg 19
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 240, Jesse Barfield 239, George Bell 239, Willie Upshaw 222,
Lloyd Moseby 213, Ernie Whitt 141, Cliff Johnson 136, Rance Mulliniks 133
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 486, George Bell 451, Lloyd Moseby 451, Willie Upshaw 434,
Jesse Barfield 427, Damaso Garcia 311, Ernie Whitt 290
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Kelly Gruber 5.4, Cecil Fielder 4.5, Damaso Garcia 2.5, Garth Iorg 2.3,
Jesse Barfield 2.1, Tony Fernandez 1.9, Lloyd Moseby 1.9, Rick Leach 1.8,
George Bell 1.5, Rance Mulliniks 1.4, Buck Martinez 1.3, Willie Upshaw 1.1,
Ernie Whitt 1.1, Cliff Johnson 1.1
Games Played (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 163, George Bell 159, Jesse Barfield 158, Willie Upshaw 155,
Lloyd Moseby 152, Garth Iorg 137, Ernie Whitt 131, Damaso Garcia 122
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'86 Starting Pitchers
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After 6 strong seasons, including 4 in a row as the league's best, Dave Stieb
had a disastrous year. Jimmy Key was also shelled early but recovered. Doyle
Alexander was traded to Atlanta on July 5/86 for prospect RHP Duane Ward, but
Doyle's impact on Blue Jays' lore wasn't done:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jimmy Key 25 L 14 11 3.57 3.98 4.20 232.0 .246 .256 .315 .396 24 5.5
Jim Clancy 30 R 14 14 3.94 4.39 3.89 219.3 .247 .243 .296 .383 24 5.2
John Cerutti 26 L 9 4 4.15 4.63 5.10 145.3 .263 .268 .325 .457 25 5.5
Doyle Alexander 35 R 5 4 4.46 4.97 4.80 111.0 .264 .273 .304 .453 18 5.3
Dave Stieb 28 R 7 12 4.74 5.29 5.89 205.0 .278 .297 .365 .470 29 5.6
A day later (July 6/86), the Jays traded Jim Acker to Atlanta for Joe Johnson,
but the Ack would be back in 3 years:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Joe Johnson 24 R 7 2 3.89 4.34 4.05 88.0 .248 .281 .325 .375 3 4.0
Duane Ward 22 R 0 1 13.50 15.05 10.48 2.0 .387 .300 .500 .374 0 4.5
Games Started:
Jimmy Key 35, Jim Clancy 34, Dave Stieb 34, John Cerutti 20,
Doyle Alexander 17, Joe Johnson 15, Jim Acker 5, Dennis Lamp 2,
Duane Ward 1
Complete Games:
Jim Clancy 6, Jimmy Key 4, Doyle Alexander 3, John Cerutti 2, Dave Stieb 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Doyle Alexander 6.5, Jim Clancy 6.5, Jimmy Key 6.4, Dave Stieb 5.5,
Joe Johnson 5.5, John Cerutti 4.3, Duane Ward 1.0
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'86 Relief Pitchers
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Side-armer Mark Eichhorn was the saviour of the Jays' staff. The Terminator
was awesome too. The rest of the pen was a disappointment:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mark Eichhorn 25 R 14 6 1.72 1.92 2.18 157.0 .186 .191 .252 .278 8 9.5
Tom Henke 28 R 9 5 3.35 3.74 2.51 91.3 .221 .191 .262 .288 6 11.6
Jim Acker 27 R 2 4 4.35 4.85 4.87 60.0 .263 .281 .346 .425 6 4.8
Dennis Lamp 33 R 2 6 5.05 5.63 5.47 73.0 .278 .309 .358 .431 5 3.7
Bill Caudill 29 R 2 4 6.19 6.90 5.18 36.3 .287 .254 .333 .433 6 7.9
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mickey Mahler 33 L 0 0 .00 .00 1.60 1.0 .128 .200 .200 .250 0 .0
Luis Aquino 22 R 1 1 6.35 7.08 5.99 11.3 .297 .304 .347 .500 2 4.0
Don Gordon 26 R 0 1 7.06 7.87 5.53 21.7 .299 .311 .367 .419 1 5.4
Stan Clarke 25 L 0 1 9.24 10.30 9.98 12.7 .353 .375 .483 .697 4 6.4
Jeff Musselman 23 L 0 0 10.13 11.30 9.26 5.3 .355 .333 .448 .531 1 6.8
Steve Davis 25 L 0 0 17.18 19.16 17.27 3.7 .447 .471 .591 .911 2 12.3
Relief Appearances:
Mark Eichhorn 69, Tom Henke 63, Bill Caudill 40, Dennis Lamp 38,
Jim Acker 18, John Cerutti 14, Don Gordon 14, Stan Clarke 10,
Luis Aquino 7, Jeff Musselman 6, Steve Davis 3, Dave Stieb 3,
Mickey Mahler 2, Joe Johnson 1, Jimmy Key 1, Duane Ward 1
Saves:
Tom Henke 27, Mark Eichhorn 10, Bill Caudill 2, Dennis Lamp 2,
John Cerutti 1, Don Gordon 1, Dave Stieb 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jim Acker 2.6, Mark Eichhorn 2.3, Dennis Lamp 1.8, Luis Aquino 1.6,
Don Gordon 1.5, Tom Henke 1.4, Stan Clarke 1.3, Steve Davis 1.2,
Bill Caudill .9, Jeff Musselman .9, Mickey Mahler .5
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1986 American League Leaders
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This time Don Mattingly was the best hitter, and he got the most MVP votes of
any hitter, but a starting pitcher won the award. EqA-leader Wade Boggs was
just 7th in the voting. Bell was 4th, Barfield 5th, and Fernandez 14th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 349 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .333 .357 .455 .486 8.24 122 107 71 8 0 4 685
Don Mattingly NYY 1B .331 .352 .399 .573 8.03 140 117 113 31 0 0 730
Ken Phelps SEA 1B .316 .247 .400 .526 7.35 74 69 64 24 2 3 432
Jesse Barfield TOR OF .308 .289 .363 .559 6.92 114 107 108 40 8 8 658
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .308 .305 .400 .463 6.72 91 61 84 17 3 0 573
George Brett KAN 3B .306 .290 .399 .481 6.84 83 70 73 16 1 2 521
Jim Rice BOS OF .305 .324 .385 .490 6.66 109 98 110 20 0 1 680
Kirk Gibson DET OF .304 .268 .365 .492 6.56 85 84 86 28 34 6 509
Fred Lynn BAL OF .303 .287 .371 .499 6.45 73 67 67 23 2 2 450
Kirby Puckett MIN OF .302 .328 .360 .537 6.66 119 119 96 31 20 12 714
Rickey Henderson NYY OF .301 .263 .357 .469 6.31 117 130 74 28 87 18 697
Phil Bradley SEA OF .298 .310 .398 .445 6.37 92 88 50 12 21 12 603
George Bell TOR OF .298 .309 .350 .532 6.37 111 101 108 31 7 8 682
Pete O'Brien TEX 1B .298 .290 .387 .468 6.43 97 86 90 23 4 4 638
Roger Clemens became famous Apr 29/86 by striking out 20 Mariners. He went on
to win the Cy Young and the MVP, and I think he left Game 6 of the World
Series with a lead too:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 130.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roger Clemens BOS 24 4 2.48 2.77 2.48 254.0 .207 .195 .250 .306 21 8.4
Mike Witt CAL 18 10 2.84 3.17 3.08 269.0 .223 .221 .275 .337 22 7.0
Teddy Higuera MIL 20 11 2.79 3.11 3.83 248.3 .228 .241 .296 .377 26 7.5
Kirk McCaskill CAL 17 10 3.36 3.75 3.52 246.3 .237 .229 .300 .344 19 7.4
Eric King DET 11 4 3.51 3.91 3.47 138.3 .238 .216 .304 .330 11 5.1
Danny Darwin MIL 6 8 3.52 3.92 3.80 130.3 .238 .246 .296 .380 13 5.5
Bruce Hurst BOS 13 8 2.99 3.33 4.14 174.3 .238 .256 .308 .395 18 8.6
Mark Gubicza KAN 12 6 3.64 4.06 3.62 180.7 .239 .233 .319 .324 8 5.9
Jack Morris DET 21 8 3.27 3.65 3.93 267.0 .240 .229 .287 .396 40 7.5
Danny Jackson KAN 11 12 3.20 3.57 4.24 185.7 .241 .256 .332 .372 13 5.6
Charlie Hough TEX 17 10 3.79 4.23 3.88 230.3 .244 .221 .295 .379 32 5.7
Floyd Bannister CHW 10 14 3.54 3.95 4.21 165.3 .244 .259 .312 .398 17 5.0
Curt Young OAK 13 9 3.45 3.85 3.62 198.0 .245 .236 .290 .365 19 5.3
Jimmy Key TOR 14 11 3.57 3.98 4.20 232.0 .246 .256 .315 .396 24 5.5
Ike and Henke formed the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the league. Note that Ike
had a better season than Willie Hernandez of '84 (more IP and lower EqA), but
while Hernandez won the MVP and Cy Young, Ike got no MVP votes and just two
3rd-place Cy Young votes:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mark Eichhorn TOR 14 6 1.72 1.92 2.18 157.0 .186 .191 .252 .278 8 9.5
Calvin Schiraldi BOS 4 2 1.41 1.57 2.79 51.0 .192 .201 .263 .328 5 9.7
Mark Clear MIL 5 5 2.20 2.45 3.03 73.7 .208 .201 .297 .292 4 10.4
Dave Righetti NYY 8 8 2.45 2.73 3.00 106.7 .216 .226 .290 .311 4 7.0
Mark Thurmond DET 4 1 1.92 2.14 3.94 51.7 .220 .234 .298 .395 7 3.0
Tom Henke TOR 9 5 3.35 3.74 2.51 91.3 .221 .191 .262 .288 6 11.6
Dan Plesac MIL 10 7 2.97 3.31 3.44 91.0 .226 .240 .300 .340 5 7.4
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Theory Stuff, 1986
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The Jays' Pythagorean record was just 2 wins back of the Sox. The Sox'
Pythagorean record was only 1 win better than the previous year, but their
actual record improved 14 wins:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) CAL 91-71 .563 | ( 1) CHW 3
( 2) BOS 90-71 .560 | ( 2) SEA 3
( 3) DET 89-73 .551 | ( 3) KAN 3
( 4) TOR 88-74 .545 | ( 4) BAL 3
( 5) NYY 87-75 .535 | ( 5) TOR 2
( 6) TEX 84-78 .517 | ( 6) DET 2
( 7) CLE 80-82 .495 | ( 7) OAK 2
( 8) KAN 79-83 .487 | ( 8) MIN 1
( 9) OAK 78-84 .482 | ( 9) CAL -1
(10) BAL 76-86 .468 | (10) TEX -3
(11) CHW 75-87 .463 | (11) NYY -3
(12) MIL 73-88 .456 | (12) MIL -4
(13) MIN 72-90 .443 | (13) CLE -4
(14) SEA 70-92 .431 | (14) BOS -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.003 in 1986
Age: as of July 1, 1986
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1986, the Jays scored 809 runs, allowed 733 runs, and
pitched 1476.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.65 in 1986)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1985-1987 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.65 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1986 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1986, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.65
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1986, estimated as 1.12*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.12*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.003*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.65 in 1986),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1986 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .13*D in 1986
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .068*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1986
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .52*SB in 1986
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Mar 1
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.