"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1985 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1985 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Willie Upshaw 147, Cecil Fielder 25, Rick Leach 10,
Len Matuszek 5, Cliff Johnson 3, Al Oliver 1
Second Base: Damaso Garcia 143, Manuel Lee 38, Garth Iorg 23,
Kelly Gruber 1
Shortstop: Tony Fernandez 160, Manuel Lee 8
Third Base: Rance Mulliniks 119, Garth Iorg 104, Manuel Lee 5,
Kelly Gruber 5, George Bell 2
Outfield: George Bell 157, Jesse Barfield 154, Lloyd Moseby 152,
Lou Thornton 35, Ron Shepherd 16, Rick Leach 4,
Mitch Webster 2
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 134, Buck Martinez 42, Gary Allenson 14,
Steve Nicosia 6, Jeff Hearron 4
Starting Pitcher: Dave Stieb 36, Doyle Alexander 36, Jimmy Key 32,
Jim Clancy 23, Luis Leal 14, Tom Filer 9, Steve Davis 5,
Ron Musselman 4, Dennis Lamp 1, John Cerutti 1
Relief Pitcher: Gary Lavelle 69, Bill Caudill 67, Jim Acker 61,
Dennis Lamp 52, Tom Henke 28, Ron Musselman 21,
Steve Davis 5, Stan Clarke 4, John Cerutti 3,
Jimmy Key 3, Tom Filer 2, Luis Leal 1
Designated Hitter: Jeff Burroughs 75, Al Oliver 59, Len Matuszek 54,
Cliff Johnson 21, Lou Thornton 16, Ron Shepherd 15,
Willie Aikens 11, Mitch Webster 2, Willie Upshaw 1
Manager: Bobby Cox
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1985 in Context
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Some still say the '85 Jays were the best Jays team ever. They fended off the
Yanks and got within one win of the World Series, but blew 3 chances to finish
off the Royals in the ALCS. The same fate awaited the Cards in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) NYYankees 5.24 | ( 1) TORONTO 3.65 | ( 1) TORONTO 99-62 .615
( 2) Baltimore 5.16 | ( 2) Kansas City 3.94 | ( 2) NYYankees 97-64 .602
( 3) Boston 4.93 | ( 3) NYYankees 4.12 | ( 3) Kansas City 91-71 .562
( 4) TORONTO 4.72 | ( 4) Detroit 4.25 | ( 4) California 90-72 .556
( 5) Oakland 4.69 | ( 5) California 4.34 | ( 5) White Sox 85-77 .525
( 6) Cleveland 4.62 | ( 6) Boston 4.43 | ( 6) Detroit 84-77 .522
( 7) White Sox 4.56 | ( 7) White Sox 4.46 | ( 7) Baltimore 83-78 .516
( 8) California 4.52 | ( 8) Baltimore 4.82 | ( 8) Boston 81-81 .500
( 9) Seattle 4.52 | ( 9) Oakland 4.87 | ( 9) Oakland 77-85 .475
(10) Detroit 4.51 | (10) Minnesota 4.93 | ( 9) Minnesota 77-85 .475
(11) Minnesota 4.45 | (11) Texas 5.00 | (11) Seattle 74-88 .457
(12) Milwaukee 4.32 | (12) Milwaukee 5.02 | (12) Milwaukee 71-90 .441
(13) Kansas City 4.23 | (13) Seattle 5.14 | (13) Texas 62-99 .385
(14) Texas 3.93 | (14) Cleveland 5.45 | (14) Cleveland 60-102 .370
Avg 4.60 Avg 4.60 1131-1131
Correcting the above for park factor, the '85 Jays just had an average offense
(EqA of .260 is average), while the Yankees led the league:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY BAL OAK BOS CLE TOR DET CAL SEA CHW MIL KAN MIN TEX
.277 .276 .270 .264 .261 .260 .260 .259 .257 .255 .254 .252 .251 .243
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '85 Jays had their best pitching
& defense ever, and led the league by a wide margin:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TOR KAN NYY BOS CHW DET CAL MIN TEX BAL MIL SEA OAK CLE
.235 .245 .252 .253 .253 .254 .255 .261 .268 .268 .270 .270 .274 .279
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was just 1.023 in 1985, only 2.5 percentage
points more favorable to hitters than Royals Stadium. But the wind was sure
blowing out to right at the Ex in October:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 12 13 14
MIN CHW BOS TOR SEA TEX MIL KAN CLE CAL DET NYY BAL OAK
5.8 3.8 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.3 -.2 -.2 -.7 -.7 -1.7 -2.7 -3.2 -7.2
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1984-1986 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'85 Hitters
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Jesse Barfield was the Jays' best hitter, with a .300+ Equivalent Average
and 100+ Equivalent Runs. Third-base was the next best spot offensively.
The attack was balanced; most regulars were above-average (EqA > .260) but
not by a lot:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jesse Barfield 25 R RF .308 .289 .367 .536 6.87 104 94 84 27 22 8 605
Rance Mulliniks 29 L 3B .298 .295 .387 .454 6.33 63 55 57 10 2 0 421
Garth Iorg 30 R 3B .285 .313 .359 .469 5.69 45 33 37 7 3 6 309
George Bell 25 R LF .280 .275 .323 .479 5.42 94 87 95 28 21 6 650
Lloyd Moseby 25 L CF .276 .259 .344 .426 5.22 91 92 70 18 37 15 660
Willie Upshaw 28 L 1B .275 .275 .339 .447 5.17 74 79 65 15 8 8 549
Ernie Whitt 33 L C .267 .245 .322 .444 4.84 59 55 64 19 3 6 459
Tony Fernandez 23 S SS .262 .289 .339 .390 4.62 73 71 51 2 13 6 607
Damaso Garcia 30 R 2B .242 .282 .299 .377 3.78 65 70 65 8 28 15 615
On July 9/85, the Jays traded Len Matuszek to the Dodgers for Al Oliver, who
hit a little better, especially in the ALCS (not included below). Buck
Martinez's season was ended early on a great double-play in Seattle:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jeff Burroughs 34 R DH .284 .257 .369 .429 5.61 31 19 28 6 0 1 225
Al Oliver 38 L DH .233 .251 .278 .374 3.42 19 20 23 5 0 0 194
Len Matuszek 30 L DH .213 .212 .265 .318 2.73 13 23 15 2 2 1 162
Buck Martinez 36 R C .201 .162 .239 .313 2.37 8 11 14 4 0 0 109
On Aug 29/85, the Jays traded prospects RHP Matt Williams, RHP Greg Ferlenda
and RHP Jeff Mays to Texas for Cliff Johnson, who hit less well than Jeff
Burroughs. Aside from Cecil Fielder, the Jays' backups didn't hit:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Cecil Fielder 21 R 1B .304 .311 .363 .527 6.64 13 6 16 4 0 0 80
Willie Aikens 30 L DH .253 .200 .304 .400 4.21 3 2 5 1 0 0 23
Cliff Johnson 37 R DH .249 .274 .354 .315 4.04 8 4 10 1 0 0 82
Lou Thornton 22 L OF .209 .236 .257 .319 2.60 6 18 8 1 1 0 74
Rick Leach 28 L 1B .190 .200 .263 .257 2.07 2 2 1 0 0 0 38
Steve Nicosia 29 R C .188 .267 .267 .267 2.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 15
Kelly Gruber 23 R 3B .154 .231 .231 .231 1.22 0 0 1 0 0 0 13
Manuel Lee 20 S 2B .132 .200 .238 .200 .83 1 9 0 0 1 4 42
Ron Shepherd 24 R OF .113 .114 .162 .171 .56 1 7 1 0 3 0 37
Jeff Hearron 23 R C -.102 .143 .143 .143 -.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Gary Allenson 30 R C -.114 .118 .118 .147 -.57 -1 2 3 0 0 0 34
Mitch Webster 26 S OF -.205 .000 .000 .000 -2.49 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Triples:
Tony Fernandez 10, Jesse Barfield 9, Lloyd Moseby 7, George Bell 6,
Willie Upshaw 5, Damaso Garcia 4, Jeff Burroughs 3, Len Matuszek 2,
Ernie Whitt 2, Garth Iorg 1, Rick Leach 1, Rance Mulliniks 1, Al Oliver 1,
Lou Thornton 1
Doubles (leaders):
Jesse Barfield 34, Tony Fernandez 31, Willie Upshaw 31, Lloyd Moseby 30,
George Bell 28, Rance Mulliniks 26, Damaso Garcia 25, Garth Iorg 22
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Lloyd Moseby 227, Jesse Barfield 222, George Bell 210, Tony Fernandez 206,
Willie Upshaw 186, Damaso Garcia 184, Rance Mulliniks 163, Ernie Whitt 148
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Lloyd Moseby 448, George Bell 446, Damaso Garcia 446, Tony Fernandez 407,
Jesse Barfield 391, Willie Upshaw 371, Ernie Whitt 317
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Damaso Garcia 2.7, Len Matuszek 2.2, Jesse Barfield 2.2, George Bell 2.1,
Al Oliver 1.9, Willie Upshaw 1.5, Ernie Whitt 1.3, Garth Iorg 1.2,
Buck Martinez 1.2, Lloyd Moseby 1.2, Jeff Burroughs 1.1,
Rance Mulliniks 1.0, Tony Fernandez 1.0
Games Played (leaders):
Tony Fernandez 161, George Bell 157, Jesse Barfield 155, Lloyd Moseby 152,
Willie Upshaw 148, Damaso Garcia 146, Ernie Whitt 139, Garth Iorg 131
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'85 Starting Pitchers
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Stieb and Key led a strong rotation:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 27 R 14 13 2.48 2.75 3.19 265.0 .216 .213 .284 .330 22 5.7
Jimmy Key 24 L 14 6 3.00 3.33 3.55 212.7 .229 .237 .282 .374 22 3.6
Jim Clancy 29 R 9 6 3.78 4.19 3.92 128.7 .245 .241 .295 .388 15 4.6
Doyle Alexander 34 R 17 10 3.45 3.83 4.38 260.7 .246 .266 .312 .410 28 4.9
Luis Leal 28 R 3 6 5.75 6.38 6.35 67.3 .294 .303 .359 .512 13 4.4
The fill-in starters were great too:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Filer 28 R 7 0 3.88 4.30 3.67 48.7 .243 .222 .296 .375 6 4.4
Steve Davis 24 L 2 1 3.54 3.93 4.48 28.0 .249 .223 .310 .414 5 7.1
Games Started:
Dave Stieb 36, Doyle Alexander 36, Jimmy Key 32, Jim Clancy 23,
Luis Leal 14, Tom Filer 9, Steve Davis 5, Ron Musselman 4, Dennis Lamp 1,
John Cerutti 1
Complete Games:
Dave Stieb 8, Doyle Alexander 6, Jimmy Key 3, Jim Clancy 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 7.4, Doyle Alexander 7.2, Jimmy Key 6.1, Jim Clancy 5.6,
Luis Leal 4.5, Tom Filer 4.4, Steve Davis 2.8
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'85 Relief Pitchers
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The bullpen problems were over. The Jays left Tom Henke in Syracuse until
July because everyone else was pitching so well. Lavelle, Lamp and Acker were
all great. It's hard to see from the numbers why Bill Caudill was vilified,
but probably the 6 losses were a factor:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Tom Henke 27 R 3 3 2.02 2.24 2.64 40.0 .200 .206 .248 .336 4 9.5
Gary Lavelle 36 L 5 7 3.10 3.44 3.43 72.7 .229 .214 .313 .324 5 6.2
Dennis Lamp 32 R 11 0 3.32 3.68 3.50 105.7 .234 .247 .296 .359 7 5.8
Bill Caudill 28 R 4 6 2.99 3.32 3.89 69.3 .234 .209 .304 .359 9 6.0
Jim Acker 26 R 7 2 3.23 3.58 4.83 86.3 .249 .268 .354 .396 7 4.4
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Stan Clarke 24 L 0 0 4.50 4.99 4.87 4.0 .265 .214 .313 .465 1 4.5
Ron Musselman 30 R 3 0 4.47 4.96 4.94 52.3 .265 .284 .358 .383 2 5.0
John Cerutti 25 L 0 2 5.40 5.99 7.87 6.7 .304 .323 .400 .494 1 6.8
Relief Appearances:
Gary Lavelle 69, Bill Caudill 67, Jim Acker 61, Dennis Lamp 52,
Tom Henke 28, Ron Musselman 21, Steve Davis 5, Stan Clarke 4,
John Cerutti 3, Jimmy Key 3, Tom Filer 2, Luis Leal 1
Saves:
Bill Caudill 14, Tom Henke 13, Jim Acker 10, Gary Lavelle 8, Dennis Lamp 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Ron Musselman 2.1, Dennis Lamp 2.0, John Cerutti 1.7, Tom Henke 1.4,
Jim Acker 1.4, Gary Lavelle 1.1, Bill Caudill 1.0, Stan Clarke 1.0
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1985 American League Leaders
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Rickey Henderson's on-base percentage won Don Mattingly the MVP award that
should have gone to George Brett. Barfield was 7th, Bell 8th, Henke 20th,
Lamp and Alexander 21st, and Garcia 24th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 376 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
George Brett KAN 3B .350 .335 .440 .585 9.22 134 108 112 30 9 1 653
Rickey Henderson NYY OF .340 .314 .420 .516 8.36 131 146 72 24 80 10 646
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .326 .368 .449 .478 8.04 128 107 78 8 2 1 749
Don Mattingly NYY 1B .324 .324 .377 .567 7.42 134 107 145 35 2 2 708
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .318 .297 .385 .523 7.07 119 111 124 31 5 2 667
Kirk Gibson DET OF .311 .287 .365 .518 6.79 114 96 97 29 30 4 652
Jesse Barfield TOR OF .308 .289 .367 .536 6.87 104 94 84 27 22 8 605
Toby Harrah TEX 2B .305 .270 .432 .389 6.68 77 65 44 9 11 4 509
Darrell Evans DET 1B .302 .248 .356 .519 6.30 97 81 94 40 0 4 590
Mike Davis OAK OF .300 .287 .347 .484 5.86 100 92 82 24 24 10 597
Rance Mulliniks TOR 3B .298 .295 .387 .454 6.33 63 55 57 10 2 0 421
Mike Young BAL OF .297 .273 .343 .513 5.98 81 72 81 28 1 5 498
Bruce Bochte OAK 1B .297 .295 .368 .439 5.72 73 48 60 14 3 1 473
Reggie Jackson CAL OF .297 .252 .361 .487 6.10 84 64 85 27 1 2 538
For the 4th consecutive year, the best pitcher in the league was Dave Stieb.
Meanwhile, Bret Saberhagen won the Cy Young, Ron Guidry was 2nd, Doyle
Alexander was 6th, and Stieb tied for 8th with 2 points. (Note that Bert
Blyleven led in innings pitched with 293.7, but I don't yet combine stats for
different teams):
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 125.0 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb TOR 14 13 2.48 2.75 3.19 265.0 .216 .213 .284 .330 22 5.7
Bret Saberhagen KAN 20 6 2.87 3.18 3.23 235.3 .225 .241 .272 .362 19 6.0
Jimmy Key TOR 14 6 3.00 3.33 3.55 212.7 .229 .237 .282 .374 22 3.6
C Leibrandt KAN 17 9 2.69 2.98 3.72 237.7 .229 .248 .301 .364 17 4.1
Charlie Hough TEX 14 16 3.31 3.67 3.23 250.3 .231 .215 .280 .339 23 5.1
Tom Seaver CHW 16 11 3.17 3.52 3.89 238.7 .235 .248 .302 .379 22 5.1
Dan Petry DET 15 13 3.36 3.73 3.36 238.7 .236 .217 .283 .348 24 4.1
Bert Blyleven CLE 9 11 3.26 3.61 3.55 179.7 .236 .240 .291 .358 14 6.5
Mike Moore SEA 17 10 3.46 3.84 3.70 247.0 .239 .247 .300 .363 18 5.6
Jack Morris DET 16 11 3.33 3.69 3.65 257.0 .239 .225 .306 .344 21 6.7
Ron Guidry NYY 22 6 3.27 3.63 3.64 259.0 .239 .248 .279 .390 28 5.0
Frank Tanana DET 10 7 3.34 3.70 3.86 137.3 .242 .250 .296 .382 13 7.0
Danny Jackson KAN 14 12 3.42 3.79 4.00 208.0 .244 .261 .325 .352 7 4.9
Jim Clancy TOR 9 6 3.78 4.19 3.92 128.7 .245 .241 .295 .388 15 4.6
The Terminator made the list of top relievers:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Ontiveros OAK 1 3 1.93 2.14 1.76 74.7 .190 .174 .230 .261 4 4.3
Tom Henke TOR 3 3 2.02 2.24 2.64 40.0 .200 .206 .248 .336 4 9.5
Bob James CHW 8 7 2.13 2.36 2.72 110.0 .202 .226 .268 .319 5 7.2
Greg Harris TEX 5 4 2.47 2.74 2.46 113.0 .206 .186 .265 .282 7 8.8
Donnie Moore CAL 8 8 1.92 2.13 3.33 103.0 .212 .237 .277 .362 9 6.3
Brian Fisher NYY 4 4 2.38 2.64 2.72 98.3 .212 .216 .275 .303 4 7.8
Stew Cliburn CAL 9 3 2.09 2.32 3.25 99.0 .213 .241 .292 .341 5 4.4
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Theory Stuff, 1985
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The Jays matched their Pythagorean record. The formula suggested the Red Sox
were a better team than their actual record suggested, perhaps not far away
from a division title themselves:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) TOR 99-62 .615 | ( 1) CLE 9
( 2) NYY 98-63 .608 | ( 2) BOS 8
( 3) BOS 89-73 .548 | ( 3) BAL 3
( 4) KAN 86-76 .533 | ( 4) OAK 1
( 5) BAL 86-75 .531 | ( 5) TEX 1
( 6) DET 85-76 .526 | ( 6) NYY 1
( 7) CAL 84-78 .518 | ( 7) DET 1
( 8) CHW 83-79 .510 | ( 8) TOR 0
( 9) OAK 78-84 .482 | ( 9) MIL -2
(10) MIN 73-89 .453 | (10) CHW -2
(11) SEA 71-91 .441 | (11) SEA -3
(12) MIL 69-92 .432 | (12) MIN -4
(13) CLE 69-93 .424 | (13) KAN -5
(14) TEX 63-98 .392 | (14) CAL -6
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.003 in 1985
Age: as of July 1, 1985
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1985, the Jays scored 759 runs, allowed 588 runs, and
pitched 1448.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.60 in 1985)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1984-1986 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.60 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1985 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1985, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.60
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1985, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.003*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.60 in 1985),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1985 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .15*D in 1985
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .068*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1985
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .49*SB in 1985
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Access count for this page:
Last Updated: 1998 Feb 22
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.