"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1984 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1984 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Willie Upshaw 151, Dave Collins 6, Rick Leach 15,
Cliff Johnson 2, Willie Aikens 2, Mitch Webster 1
Second Base: Damaso Garcia 149, Alfredo Griffin 21, Fred Manrique 9,
Garth Iorg 7, Rance Mulliniks 1
Shortstop: Alfredo Griffin 115, Tony Fernandez 73,
Rance Mulliniks 3, Garth Iorg 2, Kelly Gruber 1
Third Base: Rance Mulliniks 119, Garth Iorg 112, Kelly Gruber 12,
Tony Fernandez 10, George Bell 3
Outfield: Lloyd Moseby 156, George Bell 147, Dave Collins 108,
Jesse Barfield 88, Rick Leach 23, Mitch Webster 10,
Ron Shepherd 5, Kelly Gruber 2
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 118, Buck Martinez 98, Toby Hernandez 3,
Geno Petralli 1
Starting Pitcher: Jim Clancy 36, Dave Stieb 35, Doyle Alexander 35,
Luis Leal 35, Jim Gott 12, Dennis Lamp 4, Jim Acker 3,
Bryan Clark 3
Relief Pitcher: Jimmy Key 63, Roy Lee Jackson 54, Dennis Lamp 52,
Jim Acker 29, Jim Gott 23, Bryan Clark 17,
Ron Musselman 11, Joey McLaughlin 6, Doyle Alexander 1,
Rick Leach 1
Designated Hitter: Cliff Johnson 109, Willie Aikens 81, Damaso Garcia 1,
Willie Upshaw 1, Jesse Barfield 9, Mitch Webster 9,
George Bell 7, Rick Leach 6, Alfredo Griffin 5,
Ron Shepherd 4, Dave Collins 4, Garth Iorg 1,
Buck Martinez 1, Tony Fernandez 1, Fred Manrique 1,
Geno Petralli 1
Manager: Bobby Cox
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1984 in Context
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The '84 season was a repeat of '83 -- great first-half, mediocre second-half,
89 wins in total, and lots of beefs about the bullpen. The Tigers started
35-5, beat the Royals in the ALCS and the Padres in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Detroit 5.10 | ( 1) Detroit 3.95 | ( 1) Detroit 104-58 .642
( 2) Boston 5.06 | ( 2) NYYankees 4.17 | ( 2) TORONTO 89-73 .549
( 3) Cleveland 4.67 | ( 3) Baltimore 4.17 | ( 3) NYYankees 87-75 .537
( 4) NYYankees 4.66 | ( 4) Minnesota 4.23 | ( 4) Boston 86-76 .531
( 5) Oakland 4.64 | ( 5) Kansas City 4.28 | ( 5) Baltimore 85-77 .525
( 6) TORONTO 4.61 | ( 6) TORONTO 4.28 | ( 6) Kansas City 84-78 .519
( 7) California 4.30 | ( 7) California 4.30 | ( 7) Minnesota 81-81 .500
( 8) Baltimore 4.26 | ( 8) Texas 4.47 | ( 7) California 81-81 .500
( 9) Seattle 4.26 | ( 9) White Sox 4.55 | ( 9) Oakland 77-85 .475
(10) Minnesota 4.21 | (10) Milwaukee 4.61 | (10) Cleveland 75-87 .463
(11) White Sox 4.20 | (11) Cleveland 4.70 | (11) White Sox 74-88 .457
(12) Kansas City 4.19 | (12) Boston 4.77 | (11) Seattle 74-88 .457
(13) Texas 4.10 | (13) Seattle 4.83 | (13) Texas 69-92 .429
(14) Milwaukee 4.03 | (14) Oakland 5.01 | (14) Milwaukee 67-94 .416
Avg 4.45 Avg 4.45 1133-1133
Correcting the above for park factor, the '84 Jays had an average offense
(EqA of .260 is average):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET OAK NYY BOS CLE TOR BAL CAL SEA MIL KAN CHW MIN TEX
.276 .272 .270 .269 .263 .260 .258 .258 .256 .254 .253 .250 .250 .248
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '84 Jays had the 3rd-best
pitching & defense in the league:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET MIN TOR KAN BAL TEX CAL CHW NYY BOS CLE MIL SEA OAK
.250 .250 .253 .255 .256 .257 .258 .258 .258 .263 .264 .268 .269 .280
Exhibition Stadium was a more modest hitters' park in the mid-80's than in
the early-80's:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 2 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIN BOS CHW TOR TEX CLE KAN SEA CAL DET BAL MIL NYY OAK
4.8 4.3 4.3 3.3 3.3 1.8 .8 -.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.7 -4.2 -4.7 -6.7
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1983-1985 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'84 Hitters
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Cliff Johnson had a .310 Equivalent Average and Lloyd Moseby had 106
Equivalent Runs, though Dave Collins and George Bell were more typically
considered the Jays' MVPs. After the season, the Jays traded Collins and
Alfredo Griffin to the A's for closer Bill Caudill:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Cliff Johnson 36 R DH .310 .304 .389 .507 6.92 68 51 61 16 0 1 409
Lloyd Moseby 24 L CF .297 .280 .364 .470 6.20 106 97 92 18 39 9 670
Dave Collins 31 S LF .292 .308 .357 .444 5.96 75 59 44 2 60 14 474
Rance Mulliniks 28 L 3B .292 .324 .383 .440 5.95 55 41 42 3 2 3 376
George Bell 24 R RF .284 .292 .319 .498 5.55 94 85 87 26 11 2 630
Willie Upshaw 27 L 1B .283 .278 .341 .464 5.52 90 79 84 19 10 4 624
Ernie Whitt 32 L C .268 .238 .330 .425 4.79 46 35 46 15 0 3 358
Damaso Garcia 29 R 2B .249 .284 .302 .374 4.00 73 79 46 5 46 12 649
Alfredo Griffin 26 S SS .198 .241 .248 .298 2.26 28 53 30 4 11 3 423
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Jesse Barfield 24 R OF .290 .284 .355 .466 5.85 53 51 49 14 8 2 355
Willie Aikens 29 L DH .243 .205 .293 .376 3.76 27 21 26 11 0 0 263
Tony Fernandez 22 S SS .243 .270 .320 .356 3.75 26 29 19 3 5 7 250
Buck Martinez 35 R C .238 .220 .307 .349 3.58 26 24 37 5 0 3 261
Garth Iorg 29 R 3B .193 .227 .242 .304 2.12 16 24 25 1 1 3 252
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Toby Hernandez 25 R C .358 .500 .500 .500 9.88 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
Rick Leach 27 L OF .253 .261 .323 .375 4.17 11 11 7 0 0 0 96
Fred Manrique 23 R 2B .241 .333 .333 .333 3.69 1 0 1 0 0 0 9
Mitch Webster 25 S OF .238 .227 .261 .409 3.57 2 9 4 0 0 0 23
Kelly Gruber 22 R 3B -.030 .063 .063 .250 -.02 0 1 2 1 0 0 16
Geno Petralli 24 S C -.206 .000 .000 .000 -2.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Ron Shepherd 23 R OF -.206 .000 .000 .000 -2.50 0 0 0 0 0 1 4
Triples:
Dave Collins 15, Lloyd Moseby 15, Willie Upshaw 9, Damaso Garcia 5,
Rance Mulliniks 5, George Bell 4, Tony Fernandez 3, Garth Iorg 3,
Alfredo Griffin 2, Rick Leach 2, Jesse Barfield 1, Cliff Johnson 1,
Buck Martinez 1, Mitch Webster 1, Ernie Whitt 1
Doubles (leaders):
George Bell 39, Damaso Garcia 32, Willie Upshaw 31, Lloyd Moseby 28,
Dave Collins 24, Cliff Johnson 23, Rance Mulliniks 21, Jesse Barfield 14
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Lloyd Moseby 244, Willie Upshaw 213, George Bell 201, Damaso Garcia 196,
Dave Collins 169, Cliff Johnson 159, Rance Mulliniks 144
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Damaso Garcia 465, Lloyd Moseby 435, George Bell 431, Willie Upshaw 415,
Alfredo Griffin 321, Dave Collins 319, Cliff Johnson 251, Ernie Whitt 243
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Alfredo Griffin 8.3, George Bell 3.6, Garth Iorg 3.2, Damaso Garcia 2.9,
Jesse Barfield 2.3, Willie Aikens 1.9, Rick Leach 1.8, Buck Martinez 1.7,
Lloyd Moseby 1.6, Willie Upshaw 1.6, Rance Mulliniks 1.3, Dave Collins 1.2,
Cliff Johnson 1.2, Ernie Whitt 1.1, Tony Fernandez .9
Games Played (leaders):
George Bell 159, Lloyd Moseby 158, Damaso Garcia 152, Willie Upshaw 152,
Alfredo Griffin 140, Dave Collins 128, Cliff Johnson 127
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'84 Starting Pitchers
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The rotation was strong once again, aside from Jim Clancy. After the season,
the Jays traded Jim Gott (along with RHP Jack McKnight and IF Augie Schmidt)
to the Giants for LHP Gary Lavelle:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 26 R 16 8 2.83 3.15 3.13 267.0 .223 .221 .286 .329 19 6.7
Doyle Alexander 33 R 17 6 3.13 3.49 3.42 261.7 .232 .242 .285 .360 21 4.8
Jim Gott 24 R 7 6 4.02 4.48 3.68 109.7 .248 .233 .317 .338 7 6.0
Luis Leal 27 R 13 8 3.89 4.34 4.52 222.3 .256 .258 .319 .407 27 5.4
Jim Clancy 28 R 13 15 5.12 5.71 5.36 219.7 .280 .287 .353 .436 25 4.8
Games Started:
Jim Clancy 36, Dave Stieb 35, Doyle Alexander 35, Luis Leal 35, Jim Gott 12,
Dennis Lamp 4, Jim Acker 3, Bryan Clark 3
Complete Games:
Doyle Alexander 11, Dave Stieb 11, Luis Leal 6, Jim Clancy 5, Jim Gott 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 7.6, Doyle Alexander 7.3, Luis Leal 6.4, Jim Clancy 6.1,
Jim Gott 3.1
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'84 Relief Pitchers
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The numbers of the pen of '84 look worse than the pen of '83. Only one
better than average reliever, and he wasn't in the closer range (EqA < .230).
Only one average reliever, and the rest worse:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Roy Lee Jackson 30 R 7 8 3.56 3.97 3.99 86.0 .245 .230 .299 .391 12 6.1
Jim Acker 25 R 3 5 4.38 4.88 4.52 72.0 .262 .286 .346 .386 3 4.1
Dennis Lamp 31 R 8 8 4.55 5.07 5.44 85.0 .274 .285 .357 .428 9 4.8
Jimmy Key 23 L 4 5 4.65 5.18 5.79 62.0 .279 .286 .368 .445 8 6.4
Bryan Clark 27 L 1 2 5.91 6.59 7.35 45.7 .307 .342 .409 .511 6 4.1
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Ron Musselman 29 R 0 2 2.11 2.35 3.86 21.3 .222 .225 .311 .349 2 3.8
Joey McLaughlin 27 R 0 0 2.53 2.82 5.17 10.7 .246 .286 .388 .355 0 2.5
Rick Leach 27 L 0 0 27.00 30.09 21.28 1.0 .517 .400 .5711.049 1 .0
Relief Appearances:
Jimmy Key 63, Roy Lee Jackson 54, Dennis Lamp 52, Jim Acker 29, Jim Gott 23,
Bryan Clark 17, Ron Musselman 11, Joey McLaughlin 6, Doyle Alexander 1,
Rick Leach 1
Saves:
Roy Lee Jackson 10, Jimmy Key 10, Dennis Lamp 9, Jim Gott 2, Jim Acker 1,
Ron Musselman 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Bryan Clark 2.3, Jim Acker 2.3, Ron Musselman 1.9, Joey McLaughlin 1.8,
Roy Lee Jackson 1.6, Dennis Lamp 1.5, Rick Leach 1.0, Jimmy Key 1.0
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1984 American League Leaders
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Relievers were 1st and 3rd in the MVP voting. Hrbek was 2nd, Murray 4th,
Mattingly 5th, and Kirk Gibson 6th:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 375 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .330 .306 .413 .509 7.59 130 97 110 29 10 2 695
Don Mattingly NYY 1B .327 .343 .385 .537 7.25 123 91 110 23 1 1 644
Dave Winfield NYY OF .326 .340 .397 .515 7.21 116 106 100 19 6 4 620
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .322 .293 .396 .458 6.85 111 113 58 16 66 18 588
Dwight Evans BOS OF .315 .295 .388 .532 7.25 125 121 104 32 3 1 726
Cal Ripken BAL SS .313 .304 .374 .510 6.67 124 103 86 27 2 1 712
Alvin Davis SEA 1B .313 .284 .389 .497 6.80 114 80 116 27 5 4 664
Cliff Johnson TOR DH .310 .304 .389 .507 6.92 68 51 61 16 0 1 409
Kent Hrbek MIN 1B .310 .311 .383 .522 7.01 105 80 107 27 1 1 624
Kirk Gibson DET OF .309 .282 .359 .516 6.53 105 92 91 27 29 9 594
Harold Baines CHW OF .307 .304 .364 .541 6.81 105 72 94 29 1 2 623
Mike Easler BOS DH .306 .313 .373 .516 6.72 108 87 91 27 1 1 659
Alan Trammell DET SS .304 .314 .380 .468 6.23 101 85 69 14 19 13 615
Fred Lynn CAL OF .300 .271 .365 .474 6.06 94 84 79 23 2 2 594
For the third consecutive year, Dave Stieb was robbed of the Cy Young.
Relievers were 1st and 2nd in the voting, Blyleven was 3rd, Boddicker 4th,
Petry 5th, Viola 6th, and Morris and Stieb 7th with just 1 point each:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 140.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb TOR 16 8 2.83 3.15 3.13 267.0 .223 .221 .286 .329 19 6.7
Bert Blyleven CLE 19 7 2.87 3.20 3.20 245.0 .226 .224 .282 .336 19 6.2
Mike Boddicker BAL 20 11 2.79 3.11 3.37 261.3 .231 .228 .288 .350 23 4.4
Doyle Alexander TOR 17 6 3.13 3.49 3.42 261.7 .232 .242 .285 .360 21 4.8
Bud Black KAN 17 12 3.12 3.48 3.34 257.0 .233 .233 .280 .352 22 4.9
Frank Viola MIN 18 12 3.21 3.58 3.61 257.7 .234 .233 .287 .369 28 5.2
Storm Davis BAL 14 9 3.12 3.48 3.37 225.0 .236 .247 .306 .330 7 4.2
Bret Saberhagen KAN 10 11 3.48 3.88 3.30 157.7 .238 .237 .282 .356 13 4.2
Mike Mason TEX 9 13 3.61 4.02 3.48 184.3 .239 .233 .286 .363 18 5.5
Geoff Zahn CAL 13 10 3.12 3.48 3.78 199.3 .240 .263 .307 .367 11 2.8
Frank Tanana TEX 15 15 3.25 3.62 4.19 246.3 .243 .245 .304 .391 30 5.2
Richard Dotson CHW 14 15 3.59 4.00 4.00 245.7 .245 .238 .316 .369 24 4.4
Mike Witt CAL 15 11 3.47 3.87 3.72 246.7 .245 .244 .307 .354 17 7.2
Mark Langston SEA 17 10 3.40 3.79 3.90 225.0 .246 .230 .327 .340 16 8.2
Willie Hernandez won the Cy Young and Quisenberry was 2nd. Hernandez pitched
better than Stieb, but in a lot fewer innings. So who was better overall?
Probably the best way to determine that is to see if a replacement level
pitcher could make up the difference in innings and still have a better result
overall. Stieb's record with average support would have been 20-10, while
Hernandez's would have been 12-3. So to reproduce Stieb's value would require
adding an 8-7 pitcher to Hernandez, and 8-7 is much better than a replacement
level pitcher. So Stieb was the more valuable pitcher, and more deserving of
the Cy Young. Some people argue that closers work more "important" innings,
but a starter would have to pitch in an awful lot of blowouts for that really
to be true:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Willie Hernandez DET 9 3 1.92 2.14 2.08 140.3 .194 .194 .249 .274 6 7.2
Rollie Fingers MIL 1 2 1.96 2.18 3.22 46.0 .216 .213 .267 .343 5 7.8
Doug Corbett CAL 5 1 2.12 2.36 3.34 85.0 .218 .244 .311 .322 2 5.1
Ernie Camacho CLE 5 9 2.43 2.71 3.33 100.0 .221 .229 .301 .331 6 4.3
Dan Quisenberry KAN 6 3 2.64 2.94 3.14 129.3 .222 .247 .265 .363 10 2.9
Dave Righetti NYY 5 6 2.34 2.61 3.20 96.3 .223 .223 .297 .316 5 8.4
Jay Howell NYY 9 4 2.69 3.00 3.02 103.7 .226 .223 .286 .313 5 9.5
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Theory Stuff, 1984
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Despite the bullpen woes, the Jays still beat their Pythagorean record by
2 wins:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) DET 99-63 .614 | ( 1) CLE 6
( 2) NYY 89-73 .550 | ( 2) TEX 5
( 3) TOR 87-75 .534 | ( 3) MIL 4
( 4) BOS 85-77 .527 | ( 4) NYY 2
( 5) BAL 83-79 .510 | ( 5) CHW 1
( 6) CAL 81-81 .499 | ( 6) CAL 0
( 7) MIN 81-81 .499 | ( 7) MIN 0
( 8) CLE 81-81 .497 | ( 8) BOS -1
( 9) KAN 80-82 .491 | ( 9) OAK -2
(10) OAK 75-87 .465 | (10) SEA -2
(11) CHW 75-87 .463 | (11) BAL -2
(12) TEX 74-87 .461 | (12) TOR -2
(13) SEA 72-90 .442 | (13) KAN -4
(14) MIL 71-90 .438 | (14) DET -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .995 in 1984
Age: as of July 1, 1984
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1984, the Jays scored 750 runs, allowed 696 runs, and
pitched 1464.0 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.45 in 1984)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1983-1985 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.45 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1984 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1984, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.45
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1984, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.995*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.45 in 1984),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .19*(H-HR) (based on 1984 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .16*D in 1984
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .060*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1984
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .57*SB in 1984
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Feb 18
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.