"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1983 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
( An HTML version is at http://www.stephent.com/jays/teams/1983.html )
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The 1983 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Willie Upshaw 159, Cliff Johnson 6, Dave Collins 5,
Hosken Powell 1
Second Base: Damaso Garcia 130, Garth Iorg 39, Alfredo Griffin 5,
Rance Mulliniks 2
Shortstop: Alfredo Griffin 157, Rance Mulliniks 15,
Tony Fernandez 13, Garth Iorg 1
Third Base: Rance Mulliniks 116, Garth Iorg 82, Mickey Klutts 17,
Barry Bonnell 4
Outfield: Lloyd Moseby 147, Jesse Barfield 120, Barry Bonnell 117,
Dave Collins 112, George Bell 34, Hosken Powell 33,
Jorge Orta 17, Mitch Webster 7
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 119, Buck Martinez 85, Geno Petralli 5
Starting Pitcher: Dave Stieb 36, Luis Leal 35, Jim Clancy 34, Jim Gott 30,
Doyle Alexander 15, Jim Acker 5, Mike Morgan 4,
Matt Williams 3
Relief Pitcher: Joey McLaughlin 50, Roy Lee Jackson 49, Dave Geisel 47,
Randy Moffitt 45, Jim Acker 33, Mike Morgan 12,
Stan Clarke 10, Don Cooper 4, Jim Gott 4,
Doyle Alexander 2, Matt Williams 1
Designated Hitter: Cliff Johnson 130, Jorge Orta 69, Jesse Barfield 5,
George Bell 2, Mitch Webster 2, Mickey Klutts 2,
Willie Upshaw 1, Hosken Powell 1, Tony Fernandez 1,
Geno Petralli 1, Barry Bonnell 1, Dave Collins 1,
Alfredo Griffin 1
Manager: Bobby Cox
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1983 in Context
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All of a sudden, the Jays started scoring runs, surging to first-place at the
All-Star Break, before a mediocre 2nd-half. The O's beat the White Sox in the
ALCS and then the Phillies in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) White Sox 4.98 | ( 1) Texas 3.74 | ( 1) White Sox 99-63 .611
( 2) Baltimore 4.95 | ( 2) Baltimore 4.04 | ( 2) Baltimore 98-64 .605
( 3) TORONTO 4.95 | ( 3) White Sox 4.05 | ( 3) Detroit 92-70 .568
( 4) Detroit 4.89 | ( 4) Detroit 4.21 | ( 4) NYYankees 91-71 .562
( 5) NYYankees 4.76 | ( 5) NYYankees 4.34 | ( 5) TORONTO 89-73 .549
( 6) Milwaukee 4.73 | ( 6) Milwaukee 4.38 | ( 6) Milwaukee 87-75 .537
( 7) Boston 4.51 | ( 7) TORONTO 4.52 | ( 7) Kansas City 79-83 .488
( 8) Minnesota 4.44 | ( 8) Seattle 4.70 | ( 8) Boston 78-84 .481
( 9) California 4.41 | ( 9) California 4.76 | ( 9) Texas 77-85 .475
(10) Cleveland 4.39 | (10) Kansas City 4.80 | (10) Oakland 74-88 .457
(11) Oakland 4.38 | (11) Boston 4.82 | (11) California 70-92 .432
(12) Kansas City 4.36 | (12) Oakland 4.84 | (11) Cleveland 70-92 .432
(13) Texas 3.92 | (13) Cleveland 4.90 | (11) Minnesota 70-92 .432
(14) Seattle 3.54 | (14) Minnesota 5.15 | (14) Seattle 60-102 .370
Avg 4.52 Avg 4.52 1134-1134
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays' hitting was actually just a
little better than average (EqA > .260), but this was the first time it was
even close to that good:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIL BAL DET NYY CHW TOR OAK CAL KAN MIN CLE BOS TEX SEA
.274 .273 .273 .270 .267 .264 .263 .259 .256 .254 .253 .253 .247 .232
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the pitching & defense was still
better than the hitting, but not by so much any more:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TEX CHW BAL TOR DET SEA BOS NYY CLE MIL KAN CAL MIN OAK
.243 .246 .251 .254 .257 .260 .260 .260 .265 .266 .267 .267 .269 .274
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was 1.058, still quite favorable to the
hitters:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS TOR MIN SEA CLE CHW KAN CAL TEX BAL DET NYY OAK MIL
6.8 5.8 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.3 -.1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.6 -3.6 -4.1 -5.6 -8.1
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1982-1984 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'83 Hitters
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We'd been waiting a long time for hitting like this. Moseby and Upshaw were
the first two Jays regulars with a .300 EqA, and Upshaw was the first with
100 Equivalent Runs:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Lloyd Moseby 23 L CF .301 .315 .375 .499 6.64 95 104 81 18 27 8 590
Willie Upshaw 26 L 1B .300 .306 .372 .515 6.61 103 99 104 27 10 7 640
Cliff Johnson 35 R DH .294 .265 .369 .489 6.28 72 59 76 22 0 1 474
Barry Bonnell 29 R LF .291 .318 .373 .469 6.08 61 49 54 10 10 7 410
Rance Mulliniks 27 L 3B .291 .275 .373 .467 6.08 61 54 49 10 0 2 421
Jesse Barfield 23 R RF .270 .253 .293 .510 5.04 57 58 68 27 2 5 410
Damaso Garcia 28 R 2B .258 .307 .337 .390 4.53 66 84 38 3 31 17 549
Dave Collins 30 S OF .251 .271 .342 .328 4.23 48 55 34 1 31 7 445
Alfredo Griffin 25 S SS .225 .250 .286 .348 3.19 49 62 47 4 8 11 555
Ernie & Buck had awesome years at the plate. After the season, the Jays
traded Jorge Orta to the Royals for Willie Aikens:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ernie Whitt 31 L C .281 .256 .350 .459 5.59 55 53 56 17 1 1 394
Buck Martinez 34 R C .275 .253 .340 .452 5.29 33 27 33 10 0 1 250
George Bell 23 R OF .253 .268 .293 .438 4.30 14 5 17 2 1 1 116
Jorge Orta 32 L DH .245 .237 .292 .408 3.97 29 30 38 10 1 2 264
Garth Iorg 28 R 3B .242 .275 .299 .376 3.83 40 40 39 2 7 0 388
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mickey Klutts 28 R 3B .249 .256 .273 .465 4.12 5 3 5 3 0 1 44
Tony Fernandez 21 S SS .229 .265 .306 .353 3.36 3 5 2 0 0 1 36
Mitch Webster 24 S OF .150 .182 .250 .182 1.17 0 2 0 0 0 0 12
Hosken Powell 28 L OF .146 .169 .216 .205 1.09 3 6 7 1 2 0 88
Geno Petralli 23 S C -.101 .000 .200 .000 -.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Triples:
Alfredo Griffin 9, Lloyd Moseby 7, Willie Upshaw 7, Damaso Garcia 6,
Garth Iorg 5, George Bell 4, Dave Collins 4, Jesse Barfield 3,
Barry Bonnell 3, Rance Mulliniks 3, Jorge Orta 3, Ernie Whitt 2,
Tony Fernandez 1, Cliff Johnson 1
Doubles (leaders):
Rance Mulliniks 34, Lloyd Moseby 31, Willie Upshaw 26, Damaso Garcia 23,
Cliff Johnson 23, Alfredo Griffin 22, Garth Iorg 22, Barry Bonnell 21
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Willie Upshaw 238, Lloyd Moseby 221, Damaso Garcia 185, Cliff Johnson 175,
Alfredo Griffin 159, Rance Mulliniks 157, Barry Bonnell 153
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Willie Upshaw 409, Alfredo Griffin 407, Damaso Garcia 381, Lloyd Moseby 377,
Dave Collins 300, Cliff Johnson 300, Jesse Barfield 295, Garth Iorg 272
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Jesse Barfield 5.0, George Bell 4.3, Garth Iorg 3.5, Lloyd Moseby 1.7,
Alfredo Griffin 1.6, Willie Upshaw 1.6, Hosken Powell 1.6,
Barry Bonnell 1.6, Dave Collins 1.6, Jorge Orta 1.5, Damaso Garcia 1.4,
Buck Martinez 1.3, Ernie Whitt 1.1, Cliff Johnson 1.0, Rance Mulliniks .8
Games Played (leaders):
Alfredo Griffin 162, Willie Upshaw 160, Lloyd Moseby 151, Cliff Johnson 142,
Damaso Garcia 131, Rance Mulliniks 129, Jesse Barfield 128
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'83 Starting Pitchers
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The rotation was strong again:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 25 R 17 12 3.04 3.38 3.19 278.0 .224 .219 .284 .332 21 6.1
Jim Clancy 27 R 15 11 3.91 4.35 4.57 223.0 .253 .271 .318 .412 23 4.0
Doyle Alexander 32 R 7 6 3.93 4.37 4.69 116.7 .254 .279 .318 .435 14 3.5
Luis Leal 26 R 13 12 4.31 4.79 4.29 217.3 .255 .257 .310 .398 23 4.8
Jim Gott 23 R 9 14 4.74 5.27 4.98 176.7 .267 .280 .344 .411 15 6.2
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Matt Williams 23 R 1 1 14.63 16.27 13.29 8.0 .408 .361 .465 .835 5 5.6
Games Started:
Dave Stieb 36, Luis Leal 35, Jim Clancy 34, Jim Gott 30, Doyle Alexander 15,
Jim Acker 5, Mike Morgan 4, Matt Williams 3
43 complete games:
Complete Games:
Dave Stieb 14, Jim Clancy 11, Luis Leal 7, Jim Gott 6, Doyle Alexander 5
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 7.7, Doyle Alexander 6.9, Jim Clancy 6.6, Luis Leal 6.2,
Jim Gott 5.2, Matt Williams 2.0
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'83 Relief Pitchers
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Aug 23/83: Jays win 9-3 in Baltimore to pull within 1 game of the O's.
Luis Leal had a complete game victory over Mike Flanagan.
Aug 24/83: The Jays have 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the 9th, but
starter Jim Clancy and then Dave Geisel can't hold it. The Jays
score a run to go ahead 4-3 in the 10th, but have 3 runners picked
off. Joey McLaughlin and Randy Moffitt give up 4 runs in the
bottom of the 10th to lose the game 7-4.
Aug 25/83: Dave Stieb throws 9 innings without allowing a run, the Jays
finally score in the 10th, but Roy Lee Jackson starts the bottom
of the 10th and loses the game 2-1.
Aug 26/83: The Jays and Tigers are tied 3-3 after 9 innings in Detroit,
and starter Jim Gott gets 2 more outs in the 10th before
Alan Trammell's home run ends the game in a 4-3 loss.
Aug 27/83: Doyle Alexander, 0-8, gets his first win as a Jay. Dave Geisel
got the save in a 7-4 win on a Saturday afternoon in Detroit.
Aug 28/83: Jays lead 2-1 entering the bottom of the 9th. Geisel gets an out
then walks Parrish. Moffitt enters and gets a line drive out.
Joey McLaughlin enters, gives up a single, then a home run, to
lose the game 4-2. The Jays are now in 5th place, 5 games back.
A good closer usually has an EqA under .230. The '83 Jays didn't have a guy
like that, just a bunch around average:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Randy Moffitt 34 R 6 2 3.77 4.19 4.10 57.3 .246 .243 .319 .369 5 6.0
Jim Acker 24 R 5 1 4.33 4.82 4.66 97.7 .259 .273 .340 .394 7 4.1
Roy Lee Jackson 29 R 8 3 4.50 5.01 4.55 92.0 .260 .267 .345 .383 6 4.7
Dave Geisel 28 L 0 3 4.64 5.16 4.46 52.3 .261 .240 .344 .357 4 8.6
Joey McLaughlin 26 R 7 4 4.45 4.95 5.58 64.7 .270 .259 .357 .450 11 6.5
"Help" was on the way. After the season, the Jays traded Barry Bonnell to
Seattle for LHP Bryan Clark (no relation to Stan):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Stan Clarke 22 L 1 1 3.27 3.64 5.12 11.0 .251 .256 .341 .463 2 5.7
Mike Morgan 23 R 0 3 5.16 5.74 5.36 45.3 .276 .273 .350 .436 6 4.4
Don Cooper 27 R 0 0 6.75 7.51 9.63 5.3 .328 .348 .348 .795 3 8.4
Relief Appearances:
Joey McLaughlin 50, Roy Lee Jackson 49, Dave Geisel 47, Randy Moffitt 45,
Jim Acker 33, Mike Morgan 12, Stan Clarke 10, Don Cooper 4, Jim Gott 4,
Doyle Alexander 2, Matt Williams 1
Saves:
Randy Moffitt 10, Joey McLaughlin 9, Roy Lee Jackson 7, Dave Geisel 5,
Jim Acker 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Mike Morgan 2.8, Jim Acker 2.6, Roy Lee Jackson 1.9, Don Cooper 1.3,
Joey McLaughlin 1.3, Randy Moffitt 1.3, Dave Geisel 1.1, Stan Clarke 1.1
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1983 American League Leaders
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Cal Ripken won the MVP award and Eddie Murray finished 2nd:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 359 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .326 .306 .395 .538 7.47 125 115 111 33 5 1 668
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .325 .292 .411 .421 7.16 117 105 48 9 108 19 616
Wade Boggs BOS 3B .324 .361 .448 .486 8.07 114 100 74 5 3 3 674
George Brett KAN 3B .324 .310 .386 .563 7.50 97 90 93 25 0 1 521
Robin Yount MIL SS .322 .308 .385 .503 6.81 121 102 80 17 12 5 650
Willie Aikens KAN 1B .314 .302 .371 .539 6.94 80 49 72 23 0 0 455
Alan Trammell DET SS .311 .319 .388 .471 6.58 97 83 66 14 30 10 562
Cal Ripken BAL SS .311 .318 .373 .517 6.65 125 121 102 27 0 4 721
Bobby Grich CAL 2B .311 .292 .408 .460 6.73 76 65 62 16 2 4 463
John Lowenstein BAL OF .307 .281 .379 .481 6.41 59 52 60 15 2 1 359
Cecil Cooper MIL 1B .307 .307 .344 .508 6.03 121 106 126 30 2 1 698
Lou Whitaker DET 2B .304 .320 .385 .457 6.20 116 94 72 12 17 10 710
Dave Winfield NYY OF .304 .283 .346 .513 6.15 112 99 116 32 15 6 656
Ken Singleton BAL DH .303 .276 .394 .436 6.20 95 52 84 18 0 2 606
Dave Stieb was robbed of another Cy Young. With average support, Stieb's
record is 21-10. Jack Morris threw more innings but his adjusted record would
be just 19-14. LaMarr Hoyt won the award, Quiz 2nd, Morris 3rd, Dotson 4th,
Guidry 5th, McGregor 6th. Stieb got no votes at all:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 145.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Mike Boddicker BAL 16 8 2.77 3.08 2.96 179.0 .224 .216 .274 .326 13 6.0
Dave Stieb TOR 17 12 3.04 3.38 3.19 278.0 .224 .219 .284 .332 21 6.1
Rick Honeycutt TEX 14 8 2.42 2.69 3.59 174.7 .226 .262 .302 .368 9 2.9
Juan Berenguer DET 9 5 3.14 3.49 3.30 157.7 .235 .193 .282 .334 19 7.4
LaMarr Hoyt CHW 24 10 3.66 4.07 3.27 260.7 .236 .238 .261 .374 27 5.1
Floyd Bannister CHW 16 10 3.35 3.73 3.62 217.3 .236 .233 .294 .356 19 8.0
Matt Young SEA 11 15 3.27 3.64 3.81 203.7 .236 .236 .309 .358 17 5.7
Richard Dotson CHW 22 7 3.23 3.59 3.98 240.0 .239 .240 .322 .361 19 5.1
Frank Tanana TEX 7 9 3.16 3.52 3.73 159.3 .240 .240 .297 .366 14 6.1
Charlie Hough TEX 15 13 3.18 3.54 3.82 252.0 .241 .238 .309 .365 22 5.4
Dave Righetti NYY 14 8 3.44 3.83 3.41 217.0 .242 .237 .295 .338 12 7.0
Jack Morris DET 20 13 3.34 3.72 3.60 293.7 .242 .233 .287 .367 30 7.1
Britt Burns CHW 10 11 3.58 3.98 3.93 173.7 .243 .249 .306 .371 14 6.0
Storm Davis BAL 13 7 3.59 3.99 3.58 200.3 .245 .238 .298 .350 14 5.6
No Jays of '83 are on the following list:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dan Quisenberry KAN 5 3 1.94 2.16 2.43 139.0 .198 .229 .245 .320 6 3.1
Pete Ladd MIL 3 4 2.55 2.84 2.00 49.3 .209 .172 .242 .264 3 7.5
Salome Barojas CHW 3 3 2.47 2.75 2.94 87.3 .213 .224 .296 .298 2 3.9
Tippy Martinez BAL 9 3 2.35 2.61 3.18 103.3 .220 .211 .285 .341 10 7.1
Rich Gossage NYY 13 5 2.27 2.53 3.61 87.3 .226 .248 .301 .353 5 9.3
Bob Stanley BOS 8 10 2.85 3.17 3.85 145.3 .229 .266 .314 .369 7 4.0
Odell Jones TEX 3 6 3.09 3.44 3.18 67.0 .231 .223 .286 .324 4 6.7
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Theory Stuff, 1983
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Despite a bullpen reputed to blow leads, the Jays beat their Pythagorean
record by 1 win:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) CHW 96-66 .594 | ( 1) TEX 8
( 2) BAL 96-66 .592 | ( 2) CAL 5
( 3) DET 92-70 .568 | ( 3) CLE 3
( 4) NYY 88-74 .542 | ( 4) SEA 1
( 5) TOR 88-74 .541 | ( 5) MIN 0
( 6) MIL 87-75 .535 | ( 6) DET 0
( 7) TEX 85-77 .522 | ( 7) OAK 0
( 8) BOS 76-86 .469 | ( 8) MIL 0
( 9) CAL 75-87 .465 | ( 9) TOR -1
(10) KAN 74-88 .456 | (10) BOS -2
(11) OAK 74-88 .455 | (11) BAL -2
(12) CLE 73-89 .450 | (12) CHW -3
(13) MIN 70-92 .433 | (13) NYY -3
(14) SEA 61-101 .374 | (14) KAN -5
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .998 in 1983
Age: as of July 1, 1983
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1983, the Jays scored 795 runs, allowed 726 runs, and
pitched 1445.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.52 in 1983)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1982-1984 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.52 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1983 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1983, 25.7*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.52
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1983, estimated as 1.11*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.11*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.998*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.52 in 1983),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .20*(H-HR) (based on 1983 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .15*D in 1983
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .071*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1983
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .49*SB in 1983
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Feb 11
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.