"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1981 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1981 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Mayberry 80, Greg Wells 22, Ken Macha 16,
Willie Upshaw 14, Otto Velez 1, Ted Cox 1,
Charlie Beamon 1, Garth Iorg 1
Second Base: Damaso Garcia 62, Garth Iorg 46, Danny Ainge 2,
Alfredo Griffin 1
Shortstop: Alfredo Griffin 97, Fred Manrique 11, Danny Ainge 6,
Garth Iorg 2
Third Base: Danny Ainge 77, Ken Macha 19, Garth Iorg 14, Ted Cox 14,
Alfredo Griffin 4, Fred Manrique 2
Outfield: Lloyd Moseby 100, Al Woods 77, Barry Bonnell 66,
George Bell 44, Jesse Barfield 25, Rick Bosetti 19,
Willie Upshaw 14, Danny Ainge 4
Catcher: Ernie Whitt 72, Buck Martinez 45, Dan Whitmer 7,
Ken Macha 1
Starting Pitcher: Dave Stieb 25, Jim Clancy 22, Luis Leal 19,
Jackson Todd 13, Mark Bomback 11, Juan Berenguer 11,
Jerry Garvin 4, Paul Mirabella 1
Relief Pitcher: Joey McLaughlin 40, Roy Lee Jackson 39, Jerry Garvin 31,
Mike Willis 20, Mike Barlow 12, Dale Murray 11,
Luis Leal 10, Mark Bomback 9, Jackson Todd 8,
Paul Mirabella 7, Juan Berenguer 1, Nino Espinosa 1
Designated Hitter: Otto Velez 74, Willie Upshaw 15, John Mayberry 10,
George Bell 8, Charlie Beamon 4, Greg Wells 3, Al Woods 2,
Ken Macha 2, Damaso Garcia 1, Rick Bosetti 1, Ted Cox 1,
Fred Manrique 1, Danny Ainge 1, Garth Iorg 1
Manager: Bobby Mattick
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1981 in Context
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The '81 Jays were an abysmal 16-42 (.276) before the strike, but a much better
21-27 (.438) after. Perhaps because the strike was during the summer months,
league offense was very low (just 4.09 runs per 9 innings). To recap the
playoffs, the A's beat the Royals, the Yanks beat the Brewers then the A's,
but the Dodgers won the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Boston 4.73 | ( 1) NYYankees 3.26 | ( 1) Oakland 64-45 .587
( 2) White Sox 4.55 | ( 2) Oakland 3.65 | ( 2) Milwaukee 62-47 .569
( 3) Milwaukee 4.50 | ( 3) Texas 3.72 | ( 3) Baltimore 59-46 .562
( 4) California 4.41 | ( 4) Detroit 3.75 | ( 4) NYYankees 59-48 .551
( 5) Texas 4.33 | ( 5) Kansas City 3.95 | ( 5) Detroit 60-49 .550
( 6) Cleveland 4.17 | ( 6) White Sox 4.05 | ( 6) Boston 59-49 .546
( 7) Oakland 4.15 | ( 7) Baltimore 4.18 | ( 7) Texas 57-48 .543
( 8) Baltimore 4.11 | ( 8) Milwaukee 4.19 | ( 8) White Sox 54-52 .509
( 9) NYYankees 4.00 | ( 9) California 4.20 | ( 9) Cleveland 52-51 .505
(10) Detroit 3.96 | (10) Cleveland 4.27 | (10) Kansas City 50-53 .485
(11) Kansas City 3.87 | (11) Boston 4.38 | (11) California 51-59 .464
(12) Seattle 3.84 | (12) TORONTO 4.40 | (12) Seattle 44-65 .404
(13) Minnesota 3.47 | (13) Minnesota 4.46 | (13) Minnesota 41-68 .376
(14) TORONTO 3.11 | (14) Seattle 4.70 | (14) TORONTO 37-69 .349
Avg 4.09 Avg 4.09 749-749
Correcting the above for park factor, I'm pretty sure the '81 Jays were the
worst hitting Jays team of all-time. After I finish this project, I'll try
to put together the team records:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIL CHW TEX BOS CAL OAK CLE BAL NYY KAN DET SEA MIN TOR
.277 .274 .272 .270 .268 .267 .263 .261 .260 .256 .254 .250 .237 .227
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the '81 Jays were almost average
(EqA of .260 is average) and were in the upper-half of the league:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYY DET OAK TEX KAN TOR CHW BOS MIN CAL BAL CLE MIL SEA
.239 .248 .254 .256 .258 .261 .262 .262 .262 .263 .263 .266 .269 .271
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was 1.066 in 1981, right up there with
Fenway and the Twins' last year outdoors:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 14
MIN TOR BOS SEA DET CAL BAL KAN CLE NYY CHW TEX OAK MIL
7.1 6.6 5.6 4.1 3.1 -.4 -.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -5.4 -5.4 -5.9
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1980-1982 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'81 Hitters
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When your 3rd-best regular has an EqA of .235, you know you're in trouble:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
John Mayberry 32 L 1B .289 .248 .347 .452 5.44 50 34 43 17 1 1 334
Otto Velez 30 R DH .282 .213 .359 .404 5.10 41 32 28 11 0 3 295
Lloyd Moseby 21 L CF .235 .233 .279 .357 3.26 41 36 43 9 11 8 402
Al Woods 27 L LF .225 .247 .293 .309 2.90 27 20 21 1 3 4 307
Damaso Garcia 26 R 2B .222 .252 .278 .304 2.83 23 24 13 1 13 3 259
Barry Bonnell 27 R RF .222 .220 .259 .339 2.81 21 21 28 4 4 3 239
Garth Iorg 26 R 2B .205 .242 .266 .293 2.31 16 17 10 0 2 3 222
Alfredo Griffin 23 S SS .193 .209 .242 .289 1.98 27 30 21 0 8 12 405
Danny Ainge 22 R 3B .184 .187 .257 .228 1.76 15 20 14 0 8 5 269
On May 11/81, the Jays acquired Buck Martinez from the Brewers for OF Gil
Kobski, who never played in the majors. Catcher was actually this team's
3rd-best position hitting-wise:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Buck Martinez 32 R C .253 .227 .288 .398 3.90 16 13 21 4 1 0 139
Ernie Whitt 29 L C .232 .236 .307 .297 3.14 20 16 16 1 5 2 215
George Bell 21 R OF .223 .233 .256 .350 2.85 15 19 12 5 3 2 168
Willie Upshaw 24 L DH .215 .171 .246 .324 2.59 10 15 10 4 2 1 122
On June 10/81, the Jays traded Rick Bosetti to the A's for "future
considerations". After the season, Greg Wells was traded to the Twins for OF
Hosken Powell:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ted Cox 26 R 3B .302 .300 .364 .500 6.07 9 6 9 2 0 1 55
Jesse Barfield 21 R OF .232 .232 .263 .368 3.13 10 7 9 2 4 3 99
Greg Wells 27 R 1B .223 .247 .295 .315 2.84 7 7 5 0 0 2 78
Charlie Beamon 27 L DH .217 .200 .294 .267 2.65 1 1 0 0 0 0 17
Rick Bosetti 27 R OF .191 .234 .265 .277 1.94 3 5 4 0 0 2 49
Ken Macha 30 R 3B .186 .200 .269 .224 1.80 5 4 6 0 1 1 93
Dan Whitmer 25 R C .153 .111 .200 .222 1.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Fred Manrique 20 R SS -.112 .143 .143 .143 -.51 -1 1 1 0 0 1 28
Triples:
Alfredo Griffin 6, Barry Bonnell 4, Danny Ainge 2, Jesse Barfield 2,
Lloyd Moseby 2, Otto Velez 2, George Bell 1, Damaso Garcia 1,
Buck Martinez 1, John Mayberry 1, Willie Upshaw 1
Doubles (leaders):
Alfredo Griffin 19, Lloyd Moseby 16, Al Woods 15, Garth Iorg 11,
Otto Velez 9, Ernie Whitt 9, Damaso Garcia 8, Buck Martinez 8
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
John Mayberry 116, Lloyd Moseby 112, Otto Velez 106, Alfredo Griffin 98,
Al Woods 90, Damaso Garcia 72, Danny Ainge 69, Ernie Whitt 66
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Alfredo Griffin 319, Lloyd Moseby 298, Al Woods 221, John Mayberry 219,
Danny Ainge 205, Otto Velez 192, Damaso Garcia 190, Barry Bonnell 180
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
George Bell 5.4, Jesse Barfield 4.8, Garth Iorg 4.4, Lloyd Moseby 3.6,
Damaso Garcia 3.6, Alfredo Griffin 2.2, Barry Bonnell 2.1, Ken Macha 1.9,
Danny Ainge 1.8, Al Woods 1.6, Ernie Whitt 1.5, Buck Martinez 1.5,
Willie Upshaw 1.5, Otto Velez 1.1, John Mayberry 1.0
Games Played (leaders):
Alfredo Griffin 101, Lloyd Moseby 100, John Mayberry 94, Danny Ainge 86,
Al Woods 85, Otto Velez 80, Ernie Whitt 74, Garth Iorg 70
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'81 Starting Pitchers
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Stieb somehow got a winning record for this team and 3 other starters were
better than average too (EqA < .260). Jim Clancy had a tough time:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Stieb 23 R 11 10 3.19 3.56 3.01 183.7 .232 .223 .288 .316 10 4.4
Luis Leal 24 R 7 13 3.68 4.11 3.90 129.7 .252 .254 .314 .356 8 4.9
Mark Bomback 28 R 5 5 3.89 4.35 3.92 90.3 .255 .251 .322 .358 6 3.3
Jackson Todd 29 R 2 7 3.96 4.42 4.07 97.7 .258 .251 .308 .382 10 3.8
Jim Clancy 25 R 6 12 4.90 5.48 4.86 125.0 .278 .262 .349 .391 12 4.0
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Juan Berenguer 26 R 2 9 4.31 4.82 4.14 71.0 .263 .235 .324 .362 7 3.7
Games Started:
Dave Stieb 25, Jim Clancy 22, Luis Leal 19, Jackson Todd 13,
Mark Bomback 11, Juan Berenguer 11, Jerry Garvin 4, Paul Mirabella 1
Complete Games:
Dave Stieb 11, Luis Leal 3, Jackson Todd 3, Jim Clancy 2, Juan Berenguer 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Stieb 7.3, Juan Berenguer 5.9, Jim Clancy 5.7, Jackson Todd 4.7,
Mark Bomback 4.5, Luis Leal 4.5
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'81 Relief Pitchers
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There were some effective pitchers in the pen. The losses don't look so good
but this team wasn't going to come-from-behind for you:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Joey McLaughlin 24 R 1 5 2.85 3.18 3.49 60.0 .234 .249 .314 .331 2 5.7
Jerry Garvin 25 L 1 2 3.40 3.80 3.68 53.0 .245 .240 .321 .338 3 4.2
Roy Lee Jackson 27 R 1 2 2.61 2.92 4.69 62.0 .246 .275 .345 .397 5 3.9
Mike Barlow 33 R 0 0 4.20 4.69 6.58 15.0 .288 .338 .394 .458 1 3.0
Mike Willis 30 L 0 4 5.91 6.60 6.72 35.0 .308 .301 .387 .486 6 4.1
After the season, Paul Mirabella was sent to the Cubs for LHP Dave Geisel:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dale Murray 31 R 1 0 1.17 1.31 2.33 15.3 .184 .211 .274 .259 0 7.0
Paul Mirabella 27 L 0 0 7.36 8.22 6.72 14.7 .323 .313 .380 .470 2 5.5
Nino Espinosa 27 R 0 0 9.00 10.06 18.35 1.0 .417 .667 .667 .819 0 .0
Relief Appearances:
Joey McLaughlin 40, Roy Lee Jackson 39, Jerry Garvin 31, Mike Willis 20,
Mike Barlow 12, Dale Murray 11, Luis Leal 10, Mark Bomback 9,
Jackson Todd 8, Paul Mirabella 7, Juan Berenguer 1, Nino Espinosa 1
Saves:
Joey McLaughlin 10, Roy Lee Jackson 7, Luis Leal 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Paul Mirabella 1.8, Mike Willis 1.8, Roy Lee Jackson 1.6, Jerry Garvin 1.5,
Joey McLaughlin 1.5, Dale Murray 1.4, Mike Barlow 1.3, Nino Espinosa 1.0
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1981 American League Leaders
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EqR-leader Rickey Henderson was 2nd in the MVP voting and EqA-leader Dwight
Evans was 3rd. A reliever was named MVP:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 236 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Dwight Evans BOS OF .333 .296 .416 .522 7.71 95 84 71 22 3 2 497
Rickey Henderson OAK OF .328 .319 .409 .437 6.64 97 89 35 6 56 22 487
Bobby Grich CAL 2B .327 .304 .375 .543 6.93 78 56 61 22 2 4 392
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .321 .294 .361 .534 6.59 80 57 78 22 2 3 418
Cecil Cooper MIL 1B .320 .320 .363 .495 6.18 84 70 60 12 5 4 444
Mike Hargrove CLE 1B .318 .317 .424 .401 6.40 65 43 49 2 5 4 382
Tom Paciorek SEA OF .315 .326 .380 .509 6.61 80 50 66 14 13 10 440
George Brett KAN 3B .313 .314 .364 .484 6.14 68 42 43 6 14 6 374
Willie Aikens KAN 1B .313 .266 .377 .458 6.12 71 45 53 17 0 0 411
Gorman Thomas MIL OF .313 .259 .349 .493 5.84 76 54 65 21 4 5 413
Chet Lemon CHW OF .312 .302 .366 .491 6.04 66 50 50 9 5 8 361
Greg Luzinski CHW DH .312 .265 .362 .476 6.02 77 55 62 21 0 0 436
Dave Winfield NYY OF .311 .294 .364 .464 6.04 76 52 68 13 11 1 431
Kirk Gibson DET OF .310 .328 .367 .479 6.26 54 41 40 9 17 5 308
Steve McCatty should have won the Cy Young award but was 2nd to a reliever.
Dave Stieb should have been somewhere from 2nd-4th in the voting but he got
no votes at all:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 100.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Righetti NYY 8 4 2.05 2.29 2.16 105.3 .206 .196 .268 .248 1 7.6
Dennis Lamp CHW 7 6 2.41 2.69 2.84 127.0 .225 .222 .288 .297 4 5.0
Steve McCatty OAK 14 7 2.33 2.60 2.81 185.7 .226 .211 .277 .309 12 4.4
Larry Gura KAN 11 8 2.72 3.04 2.71 172.3 .227 .223 .264 .323 11 3.2
Ron Guidry NYY 11 5 2.76 3.08 2.79 127.0 .230 .214 .256 .334 12 7.4
Dave Stieb TOR 11 10 3.19 3.56 3.01 183.7 .232 .223 .288 .316 10 4.4
Ken Forsch CAL 11 7 2.88 3.22 3.13 153.0 .236 .250 .284 .341 7 3.2
Jack Morris DET 14 7 3.05 3.41 3.18 198.0 .236 .218 .296 .323 14 4.4
Dan Petry DET 10 9 3.00 3.35 3.39 141.0 .238 .224 .302 .329 10 5.0
Bert Blyleven CLE 11 7 2.88 3.22 3.31 159.3 .239 .245 .293 .343 9 6.0
Britt Burns CHW 10 6 2.64 2.95 3.61 156.7 .241 .238 .297 .359 14 6.2
Milt Wilcox DET 12 9 3.03 3.39 3.56 166.3 .241 .247 .306 .349 10 4.3
Tommy John NYY 9 8 2.63 2.94 3.78 140.3 .242 .256 .307 .367 10 3.2
Dennis Leonard KAN 13 11 2.99 3.34 3.71 201.7 .247 .258 .295 .370 15 4.8
Rollie Fingers won the Cy Young award and the MVP, and while he pitched great,
I don't think he threw enough innings to deserve either award:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Rich Gossage NYY 3 2 .77 .86 1.09 46.7 .148 .141 .212 .209 2 9.3
Rollie Fingers MIL 6 3 1.04 1.16 1.85 78.0 .179 .198 .234 .273 3 7.0
Kevin Saucier DET 4 2 1.65 1.84 1.65 49.0 .183 .160 .255 .213 1 4.2
Dan Quisenberry KAN 1 4 1.73 1.93 3.21 62.3 .217 .258 .303 .329 1 2.9
Ron Davis NYY 4 5 2.71 3.03 2.43 73.0 .223 .186 .259 .294 6 10.2
Larry Andersen SEA 3 3 2.66 2.97 3.00 67.7 .226 .228 .280 .324 4 5.3
Don Aase CAL 4 4 2.34 2.61 3.43 65.3 .231 .234 .304 .334 4 5.2
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Theory Stuff, 1981
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The Jays' Pythagorean record was the same as their actual one:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) NYY 63-44 .593 | ( 1) CAL 6
( 2) TEX 60-45 .568 | ( 2) CHW 5
( 3) OAK 61-48 .558 | ( 3) NYY 4
( 4) CHW 59-47 .554 | ( 4) TEX 3
( 5) BOS 58-50 .535 | ( 5) MIN 1
( 6) MIL 58-51 .533 | ( 6) SEA 1
( 7) DET 57-52 .525 | ( 7) KAN 1
( 8) CAL 57-53 .523 | ( 8) TOR 0
( 9) BAL 52-53 .492 | ( 9) BOS -1
(10) KAN 51-52 .491 | (10) CLE -2
(11) CLE 50-53 .488 | (11) DET -3
(12) SEA 45-64 .409 | (12) OAK -3
(13) MIN 42-67 .387 | (13) MIL -4
(14) TOR 37-69 .346 | (14) BAL -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, 1.002 in 1981
Age: as of July 1, 1981
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1981, the Jays scored 329 runs, allowed 466 runs, and
pitched 953.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.09 in 1981)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1980-1982 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.09 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1981 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1981, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.09
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1981, estimated as 1.12*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.12*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (1.002*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.09 in 1981),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .18*(H-HR) (based on 1981 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .14*D in 1981
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .064*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1981
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .61*SB in 1981
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Also, specific outfield positions (RF, CF, LF) are from TB5.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Feb 3
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.