"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1978 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1978 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: John Mayberry 139, Doug Ault 25, Willie Upshaw 10,
Tommy Hutton 9, Otto Velez 1,
Second Base: Dave McKay 140, Garth Iorg 18, Tim Johnson 13
Shortstop: Luis Gomez 153, Tim Johnson 49, Tim Nordbrook 7,
Bob Bailor 4, Dave McKay 3
Third Base: Roy Howell 131, Bob Bailor 28, Dave McKay 2
Outfield: Rick Bosetti 135, Bob Bailor 125, Otto Velez 74,
Al Woods 60, Tommy Hutton 55, Willie Upshaw 52,
Doug Ault 7, Gary Woods 6, Roy Howell 5, Sam Ewing 3
Catcher: Rick Cerone 84, Alan Ashby 81, Brian Milner 2,
Ernie Whitt 1
Starting Pitcher: Jesse Jefferson 30, Tom Underwood 30, Jim Clancy 30,
Jerry Garvin 22, Dave Lemanczyk 20, Balor Moore 18,
Don Kirkwood 9, Mike Willis 2
Relief Pitcher: Tom Murphy 50, Mike Willis 42, Victor Cruz 32,
Joe Coleman 31, Balor Moore 19, Dave Lemanczyk 9,
Tom Buskey 8, Don Kirkwood 7, Dave Wallace 6,
Jerry Garvin 4, Mark Wiley 2, Jim Clancy 1,
Jesse Jefferson 1, Tom Underwood 1
Designated Hitter: Rico Carty 101, Willie Horton 30, Willie Upshaw 18,
Otto Velez 9, Sam Ewing 9, John Mayberry 7, Doug Ault 5,
Butch Alberts 4, Rick Cerone 2, Roy Howell 1, Dave McKay 1
Manager: Roy Hartsfield
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1978 in Context
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The '78 Jays were not last in any category (they were 2nd-last in all of them).
Like the previous year, the Yankees beat the Royals in the ALCS and the
Dodgers in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Milwaukee 5.04 | ( 1) NYYankees 3.59 | ( 1) NYYankees 100-63 .613
( 2) Boston 4.86 | ( 2) Texas 3.91 | ( 2) Boston 99-64 .607
( 3) Kansas City 4.65 | ( 3) Kansas City 3.97 | ( 3) Milwaukee 93-69 .574
( 4) NYYankees 4.53 | ( 4) Baltimore 3.99 | ( 4) Kansas City 92-70 .568
( 5) Detroit 4.41 | ( 5) Boston 4.02 | ( 5) Baltimore 90-71 .559
( 6) Texas 4.28 | ( 6) Detroit 4.04 | ( 6) Texas 87-75 .537
( 7) California 4.27 | ( 7) Milwaukee 4.07 | ( 6) California 87-75 .537
( 8) Baltimore 4.15 | ( 8) California 4.12 | ( 8) Detroit 86-76 .531
( 9) Minnesota 4.11 | ( 9) Minnesota 4.18 | ( 9) Minnesota 73-89 .451
(10) Cleveland 4.09 | (10) Oakland 4.33 | (10) White Sox 71-90 .441
(11) White Sox 4.05 | (11) Cleveland 4.44 | (11) Cleveland 69-90 .434
(12) Seattle 3.89 | (12) White Sox 4.67 | (12) Oakland 69-93 .426
(13) TORONTO 3.72 | (13) TORONTO 4.88 | (13) TORONTO 59-102 .366
(14) Oakland 3.34 | (14) Seattle 5.29 | (14) Seattle 56-104 .350
Avg 4.24 Avg 4.24 1131-1131
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays don't change position, but the
Red Sox vaunted offense drops to only a little above average (EqA of .260):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIL NYY KAN CAL BAL BOS DET TEX CLE MIN CHW SEA TOR OAK
.279 .270 .267 .265 .265 .264 .261 .261 .257 .255 .254 .251 .244 .240
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, again the Jays don't change position,
but we see that it was pitching that got the Red Sox so close to a pennant:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS NYY KAN TEX DET MIL MIN BAL CAL CLE OAK CHW TOR SEA
.245 .246 .251 .252 .252 .256 .257 .261 .261 .266 .267 .269 .272 .284
Jays' players EqAs are dropped roughly 3 points to correct for Exhibition
Stadium's park factor of 1.029 (it works out that one point of park factor
makes roughly a one point difference in most player's EqAs and a one run
difference in most player's Equivalent Runs):
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 10 11 12 12 14
BOS DET TOR KAN MIN CHW MIL TEX SEA CLE NYY CAL OAK BAL
9.8 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 .9 -.1 -.1 -.1 -1.1 -3.1 -4.1 -4.1 -6.6
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1977-1979 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'78 Hitters
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Otto Velez was the '78 Jays best hitter in limited playing time, while John
Mayberry created the most runs. Rico Carty was traded to Oakland on Aug 15/78
for DH Willie Horton and RHP prospect Phil Huffman, but Rico would be back:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Otto Velez 27 R LF .297 .266 .379 .448 5.91 45 29 38 9 1 3 293
Rico Carty 38 R DH .293 .284 .345 .481 5.70 66 51 68 20 1 1 423
John Mayberry 29 L 1B .270 .250 .329 .416 4.68 75 51 70 22 1 2 575
Roy Howell 24 L 3B .257 .270 .324 .376 4.14 69 67 61 8 0 1 595
Bob Bailor 26 R RF .238 .264 .307 .338 3.40 65 74 52 1 5 6 659
Rick Bosetti 24 R CF .235 .259 .296 .347 3.29 59 61 42 5 6 10 598
Dave McKay 28 S 2B .226 .238 .267 .351 2.99 48 59 45 7 4 4 524
Rick Cerone 24 R C .215 .223 .282 .298 2.63 24 25 20 3 0 3 305
Luis Gomez 26 R SS .197 .223 .282 .254 2.13 29 39 32 0 2 10 447
After the season, Alan Ashby was traded to Houston for RHP Mark Lemongello,
OF Joe Cannon and INF Pedro Hernandez. I didn't know Willie Upshaw used to
play outfield:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Alan Ashby 26 S C .273 .261 .332 .420 4.79 39 27 29 9 1 1 292
Doug Ault 28 R 1B .264 .240 .347 .356 4.42 14 10 7 3 0 0 121
Tommy Hutton 32 L OF .249 .254 .328 .341 3.81 21 19 9 2 1 2 192
Al Woods 24 L OF .233 .241 .277 .364 3.24 23 19 25 3 1 2 231
Willie Upshaw 21 L OF .225 .237 .302 .304 2.96 22 26 17 1 4 6 245
Willie Horton 35 R DH .203 .205 .230 .328 2.29 9 12 19 3 0 0 126
Future Jays' manager Tim Johnson was obtained from Milwaukee on April 28/78
for Tim Nordbrook. It sure looked like Brian Milner was a better prospect
than Ernie Whitt, but Milner never played in the majors again:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Brian Milner 18 R C .375 .444 .444 .667 10.63 2 3 2 0 0 0 9
Butch Alberts 28 R DH .223 .278 .278 .333 2.88 2 1 0 0 0 0 18
Tim Johnson 28 L SS .217 .241 .310 .266 2.69 7 9 3 0 0 1 87
Sam Ewing 29 L OF .198 .179 .246 .286 2.15 4 3 9 2 0 0 61
Gary Woods 23 R OF .152 .158 .200 .211 1.11 1 1 0 0 1 0 20
Garth Iorg 23 R 2B .112 .163 .212 .163 .52 1 3 3 0 0 0 52
Tim Nordbrook 28 R SS .000 .000 .000 .000 .00 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ernie Whitt 26 L C -.104 .000 .200 .000 -.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Assorted team leaders:
Triples:
Dave McKay 8, Bob Bailor 7, Rick Bosetti 5, Luis Gomez 3, Roy Howell 3,
Al Woods 3, Rick Cerone 2, John Mayberry 2, Willie Upshaw 2, Otto Velez 2,
Doug Ault 1, Brian Milner 1
Doubles (leaders):
Bob Bailor 29, Roy Howell 28, Rick Bosetti 25, Dave McKay 20, Rico Carty 16,
Alan Ashby 15, John Mayberry 15, Otto Velez 14, Al Woods 12
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Bob Bailor 202, Roy Howell 193, John Mayberry 189, Rick Bosetti 177,
Rico Carty 146, Dave McKay 140, Luis Gomez 126, Otto Velez 111
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Bob Bailor 463, Rick Bosetti 431, Roy Howell 403, John Mayberry 388,
Dave McKay 388, Luis Gomez 331, Rico Carty 278, Rick Cerone 222
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Willie Horton 7.3, Dave McKay 4.6, Rick Bosetti 2.2, Al Woods 2.1,
Tim Johnson 2.0, Roy Howell 1.8, Willie Upshaw 1.7, Rick Cerone 1.4,
Luis Gomez 1.2, Alan Ashby 1.1, Rico Carty 1.1, John Mayberry 1.0,
Otto Velez .9, Doug Ault .8, Tommy Hutton .6, Bob Bailor .6
Games Played (leaders):
Bob Bailor 154, Luis Gomez 153, John Mayberry 152, Dave McKay 145,
Roy Howell 140, Rick Bosetti 136, Rico Carty 104, Willie Upshaw 95
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'78 Starting Pitchers
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Jim Clancy was the Jays' best starter in '78, though still a slightly below
average one (EqA > ,260):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jim Clancy 22 R 10 12 4.09 4.62 4.57 193.7 .265 .270 .350 .372 10 4.9
Tom Underwood 24 L 6 14 4.10 4.63 4.88 197.7 .268 .263 .338 .410 23 6.3
Jesse Jefferson 29 R 7 16 4.38 4.94 4.94 211.7 .273 .267 .338 .428 28 4.1
Jerry Garvin 22 L 4 12 5.54 6.25 6.25 144.7 .300 .319 .370 .489 20 4.2
Dave Lemanczyk 27 R 4 14 6.26 7.06 6.24 136.7 .307 .313 .387 .470 16 4.1
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Don Kirkwood 28 R 4 5 4.24 4.78 5.04 68.0 .272 .289 .351 .422 6 3.8
Balor Moore 27 L 6 9 4.93 5.56 5.37 144.3 .284 .294 .356 .444 16 4.7
Games Started:
Jesse Jefferson 30, Tom Underwood 30, Jim Clancy 30, Jerry Garvin 22,
Dave Lemanczyk 20, Balor Moore 18, Don Kirkwood 9, Mike Willis 2
Just 35 complete games this time:
Complete Games:
Jesse Jefferson 9, Jim Clancy 7, Tom Underwood 7, Jerry Garvin 3,
Don Kirkwood 3, Dave Lemanczyk 3, Balor Moore 2, Mike Willis 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Jesse Jefferson 6.8, Tom Underwood 6.4, Jim Clancy 6.2, Jerry Garvin 5.6,
Dave Lemanczyk 4.7, Don Kirkwood 4.3, Balor Moore 3.9
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'78 Relief Pitchers
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Once again the Jays traded their best pitcher after the season, this time
Victor Cruz to Cleveland for Alfredo Griffin and 3B Phil Lansford (Cruz
pitched well in 4 more seasons, but didn't re-appear after 1983):
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Victor Cruz 20 R 7 3 1.71 1.93 2.81 47.3 .203 .179 .330 .223 0 9.7
Tom Buskey 31 R 0 1 3.38 3.81 4.59 13.3 .255 .275 .339 .395 1 4.7
Tom Murphy 32 R 6 9 3.93 4.43 4.42 94.0 .261 .256 .329 .407 11 3.4
Mike Willis 27 L 3 7 4.56 5.15 4.81 100.7 .273 .271 .338 .415 11 4.6
Joe Coleman 31 R 2 0 4.60 5.19 5.43 60.7 .281 .286 .367 .426 6 4.2
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Dave Wallace 30 R 0 0 3.86 4.36 4.91 14.0 .266 .245 .383 .360 1 4.5
Mark Wiley 30 R 0 0 6.75 7.62 4.18 2.7 .293 .273 .333 .338 0 6.8
Relief Appearances:
Tom Murphy 50, Mike Willis 42, Victor Cruz 32, Joe Coleman 31,
Balor Moore 19, Dave Lemanczyk 9, Tom Buskey 8, Don Kirkwood 7,
Dave Wallace 6, Jerry Garvin 4, Mark Wiley 2, Jim Clancy 1,
Jesse Jefferson 1, Tom Underwood 1
Saves:
Victor Cruz 9, Tom Murphy 7, Mike Willis 7
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Wallace 2.3, Mike Willis 2.3, Joe Coleman 2.0, Tom Murphy 1.9,
Tom Buskey 1.7, Victor Cruz 1.5, Mark Wiley 1.3
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1978 American League Leaders
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Jim Rice won the MVP award and with 137 Equivalent Runs (in 163 games played)
that's fine with me. Ron Guidry was 2nd and Larry Hisle was 3rd. The outrage
is that EqA leader Ken Singleton was just 35th (2 MVP points vs Rice's 352):
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 343 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ken Singleton BAL OF .327 .293 .408 .462 6.83 111 67 81 20 0 0 600
Amos Otis KAN OF .321 .298 .382 .525 7.13 104 74 96 22 32 8 552
Jim Rice BOS OF .319 .315 .369 .600 7.55 137 121 139 46 7 5 735
Larry Hisle MIL OF .318 .290 .371 .533 6.79 109 96 115 34 10 6 587
Rod Carew MIN 1B .315 .333 .414 .441 6.82 109 85 70 5 27 7 642
Andy Thornton CLE 1B .315 .262 .376 .516 6.60 109 97 105 33 4 7 601
Doug DeCinces BAL 3B .313 .286 .345 .526 6.14 104 72 80 28 7 7 557
Ben Oglivie MIL OF .310 .303 .372 .497 6.39 91 71 72 18 11 7 521
Eddie Murray BAL 1B .309 .285 .359 .480 5.94 119 85 95 27 6 5 680
Leon Roberts SEA OF .309 .301 .357 .515 6.33 90 78 92 22 6 3 513
Chet Lemon CHW OF .307 .300 .369 .510 6.28 69 51 55 13 5 9 396
Sixto Lezcano MIL OF .305 .292 .381 .459 6.15 83 62 61 15 3 3 506
Gorman Thomas MIL OF .305 .246 .350 .515 6.14 90 70 86 32 3 4 525
Bobby Bonds TEX OF .304 .265 .358 .497 6.10 96 85 82 29 37 20 544
If the Jays had agreed to the Singer for Guidry trade, a lot of celebrated
history about the Yanks of '77-78 may never have happened. Yes, 25-3 won the
Cy Young, but I'm more impressed with his lead in EqA:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 149.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Ron Guidry NYY 25 3 1.74 1.96 2.12 273.7 .196 .193 .249 .276 13 8.2
Mike Caldwell MIL 22 9 2.36 2.66 2.86 293.3 .219 .234 .270 .325 14 4.0
Jon Matlack TEX 15 13 2.27 2.56 3.18 270.0 .222 .245 .281 .341 14 5.2
Larry Gura KAN 16 4 2.72 3.07 3.02 221.7 .225 .229 .283 .329 13 3.3
Dave Goltz MIN 15 10 2.49 2.81 3.69 220.3 .231 .253 .309 .354 12 4.7
Jim Palmer BAL 21 12 2.46 2.78 3.21 296.0 .232 .227 .290 .330 19 4.2
Dennis Eckersley BOS 20 8 2.99 3.37 4.03 268.3 .237 .251 .299 .392 30 5.4
Luis Tiant BOS 13 8 3.31 3.73 3.68 212.3 .237 .234 .285 .381 26 4.8
Ferguson Jenkins TEX 18 8 3.04 3.43 3.33 249.0 .237 .245 .277 .366 21 5.7
Dave Rozema DET 9 12 3.14 3.54 3.75 209.3 .241 .260 .297 .382 17 2.5
Lary Sorensen MIL 18 12 3.21 3.62 3.46 280.7 .241 .259 .292 .358 14 2.5
Paul Splittorff KAN 19 13 3.40 3.84 3.58 262.0 .243 .247 .290 .368 22 2.6
Rich Gale KAN 14 8 3.09 3.49 4.04 192.3 .245 .244 .338 .342 10 4.1
Rick Waits CLE 13 15 3.20 3.61 3.71 230.3 .246 .240 .309 .349 16 3.8
Victor Cruz had a lower EqA (.203) than Gossage, but was a just a tad short of
either of my minimum requirements to be listed:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Rich Gossage NYY 10 11 2.01 2.27 2.65 134.3 .211 .187 .279 .286 9 8.2
John Hiller DET 9 4 2.34 2.64 2.75 92.3 .214 .202 .281 .303 6 7.2
Mike Marshall MIN 10 12 2.45 2.76 3.00 99.0 .221 .225 .298 .302 3 5.1
Bob Stanley BOS 15 2 2.60 2.93 3.65 141.7 .226 .266 .310 .356 5 2.4
Al Hrabosky KAN 8 7 2.88 3.25 3.10 75.0 .229 .200 .295 .312 6 7.2
Steve Mingori KAN 1 4 2.74 3.09 3.42 69.0 .231 .242 .286 .353 5 3.7
Dick Drago BOS 4 4 3.03 3.42 3.92 77.3 .236 .246 .321 .353 5 4.9
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Theory Stuff, 1978
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The Pythagorean formula still puts the two expansion teams at the bottom, with
the Jays still ahead of the M's:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) NYY 99-64 .605 | ( 1) MIN 7
( 2) MIL 97-65 .596 | ( 2) CLE 5
( 3) BOS 96-67 .587 | ( 3) MIL 4
( 4) KAN 93-69 .572 | ( 4) SEA 2
( 5) TEX 88-74 .541 | ( 5) TOR 2
( 6) DET 88-74 .541 | ( 6) DET 2
( 7) BAL 83-78 .518 | ( 7) TEX 1
( 8) CAL 84-78 .517 | ( 8) KAN 1
( 9) MIN 80-82 .492 | ( 9) CHW -1
(10) CLE 74-85 .462 | (10) NYY -1
(11) CHW 70-91 .435 | (11) CAL -3
(12) OAK 62-100 .383 | (12) BOS -3
(13) TOR 61-100 .378 | (13) BAL -7
(14) SEA 58-102 .363 | (14) OAK -7
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .989 in 1978
Age: as of July 1, 1978
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1978, the Jays scored 590 runs, allowed 775 runs, and
pitched 1429.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.24 in 1978)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1977-1979 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.24 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1978 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1978, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.24
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1978, estimated as 1.13*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.13*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.989*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.24 in 1978),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .18*(H-HR) (based on 1978 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .16*D in 1978
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .068*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1978
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .61*SB in 1978
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Jan 29
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.