"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 1977 Blue Jay (and American League leaders).
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The 1977 Toronto Blue Jays
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Games Played By Position:
First Base: Doug Ault 122, Ron Fairly 40, Doug Rader 7, Sam Ewing 2
Second Base: Steve Staggs 72, Dave McKay 40, Pedro Garcia 34,
Hector Torres 23
Shortstop: Hector Torres 68, Bob Bailor 53, Tim Nordbrook 24,
Jim Mason 22, Dave McKay 20
Third Base: Roy Howell 87, Doug Rader 45, Dave McKay 42,
Hector Torres 2
Outfield: Al Woods 115, Steve Bowling 87, Otto Velez 79,
John Scott 67, Bob Bailor 63, Gary Woods 60,
Sam Ewing 46, Ron Fairly 33, Doug Rader 1
Catcher: Alan Ashby 124, Rick Cerone 31, Ernie Whitt 14,
Phil Roof 3
Starting Pitcher: Dave Lemanczyk 34, Jerry Garvin 34, Jesse Jefferson 33,
Jeff Byrd 17, Jim Clancy 13, Bill Singer 12,
Pete Vuckovich 8, Steve Hargan 5, Mike Willis 3,
Tom Murphy 1, Mike Darr 1
Relief Pitcher: Pete Vuckovich 45, Jerry Johnson 43, Mike Willis 40,
Tom Murphy 18, Dennis DeBarr 14, C Hartenstein 13,
Tom Bruno 12, Steve Hargan 1, Bill Singer 1
Designated Hitter: Ron Fairly 58, Doug Rader 34, Otto Velez 28,
Sam Ewing 27, Roy Howell 8, Bob Bailor 7, Doug Ault 4,
Al Woods 4, Pedro Garcia 4, John Scott 2, Dave McKay 2
Manager: Roy Hartsfield
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1977 in Context
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The '77 Jays finished 10 wins behind the other expansion team. The Yankees
beat the Royals in the ALCS and the Dodgers in the Series:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Boston 5.41 | ( 1) Kansas City 4.01 | ( 1) Kansas City 102-60 .630
( 2) Minnesota 5.41 | ( 2) Texas 4.02 | ( 2) NYYankees 100-62 .617
( 3) White Sox 5.26 | ( 3) NYYankees 4.04 | ( 3) Baltimore 97-64 .602
( 4) NYYankees 5.16 | ( 4) Baltimore 4.05 | ( 3) Boston 97-64 .602
( 5) Kansas City 5.06 | ( 5) California 4.35 | ( 5) Texas 94-68 .580
( 6) Texas 4.69 | ( 6) Boston 4.49 | ( 6) White Sox 90-72 .556
( 7) Baltimore 4.46 | ( 7) Cleveland 4.58 | ( 7) Minnesota 84-77 .522
( 8) Detroit 4.41 | ( 8) Detroit 4.64 | ( 8) California 74-88 .457
( 9) California 4.23 | ( 9) Oakland 4.69 | ( 8) Detroit 74-88 .457
(10) Cleveland 4.19 | (10) White Sox 4.80 | (10) Cleveland 71-90 .441
(11) Milwaukee 4.02 | (11) Milwaukee 4.81 | (11) Milwaukee 67-95 .414
(12) Seattle 3.92 | (12) Minnesota 4.84 | (12) Seattle 64-98 .395
(13) TORONTO 3.81 | (13) TORONTO 5.18 | (13) Oakland 63-98 .391
(14) Oakland 3.79 | (14) Seattle 5.37 | (14) TORONTO 54-107 .335
Avg 4.56 Avg 4.56 1131-1131
Correcting the above for park factor, the '77 Jays had the worst-hitting team
in the league:
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
MIN NYY CHW KAN BOS BAL TEX CAL CLE DET MIL SEA OAK TOR
.280 .276 .275 .271 .267 .265 .262 .256 .255 .251 .247 .245 .243 .240
I didn't realize this before embarking on this project, but the Jays have
almost always had better pitching & defense than hitting, the two World Series
years being among the few exceptions:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TEX KAN BOS NYY BAL DET CAL CLE OAK CHW MIL MIN TOR SEA
.246 .247 .247 .250 .255 .256 .259 .264 .264 .265 .266 .268 .272 .278
Exhibition Stadium's park factor was 1.019 in 1977, a slight hitters' park.
It would sometimes be rated a more significant hitters' park in later years:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS DET TOR TEX CHW KAN MIL SEA OAK MIN NYY CLE CAL BAL
11.4 5.4 1.9 .9 .4 -.1 -.1 -.1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.1 -3.1 -4.1 -6.6
(derived from park factors in Total Baseball, 5th ed., which are based
on data from 1976-1978 except when the park changed; see Glossary)
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'77 Hitters
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On May 9/77, the Jays traded RHP Steve Hargan and SS Jim Mason to Texas
for a 23-year-old third-baseman who would be the team's best hitter in '77
(just stats with the Jays are shown below). After the season, the Jays
traded Ron Fairly to the Angels for 1B-OF Butch Alberts and C Pat Kelly (who?):
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Roy Howell 23 L 3B .297 .316 .387 .451 6.23 61 41 44 10 4 1 406
Otto Velez 26 R RF .291 .256 .369 .458 5.97 63 50 62 16 4 2 425
Ron Fairly 38 L DH .287 .279 .360 .465 5.75 75 60 64 19 0 4 516
Doug Rader 32 R 3B .267 .240 .322 .435 4.81 45 47 40 13 2 1 351
Bob Bailor 25 R CF .263 .310 .333 .403 4.63 63 62 32 5 15 6 513
Al Woods 23 L LF .258 .284 .338 .382 4.41 56 58 35 6 8 7 476
Steve Staggs 26 R 2B .251 .259 .340 .359 4.11 36 37 28 2 5 9 326
Doug Ault 27 R 1B .246 .245 .306 .382 3.93 52 44 64 11 4 4 484
Alan Ashby 25 S C .215 .210 .298 .280 2.79 34 25 29 2 0 2 446
The '77 Jays had 5 above-average hitters (EqA > .260) but a lot of at bats went
to guys who didn't hit well:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Sam Ewing 28 L OF .260 .287 .338 .385 4.48 31 24 34 4 1 1 263
Steve Bowling 25 R OF .230 .206 .333 .273 3.32 20 19 13 1 2 3 231
Hector Torres 31 R SS .227 .241 .284 .346 3.20 25 33 26 5 1 1 282
John Scott 25 R OF .205 .240 .266 .305 2.49 18 26 15 2 10 8 241
Pedro Garcia 27 R 2B .192 .208 .237 .300 2.10 8 10 9 0 0 0 135
Rick Cerone 23 R C .185 .200 .245 .270 1.93 6 7 10 1 0 0 106
Gary Woods 22 R OF .179 .216 .239 .264 1.76 12 21 17 0 5 4 234
Dave McKay 27 S 2B .169 .197 .217 .266 1.53 13 18 22 3 2 1 281
I say we give that 25-year-old catching prospect another chance:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Ernie Whitt 25 L C .156 .171 .209 .244 1.26 2 4 6 0 0 0 43
Jim Mason 26 L SS .153 .165 .233 .203 1.19 3 10 2 0 1 1 86
Tim Nordbrook 27 R SS .151 .175 .224 .206 1.15 2 9 1 0 1 0 67
Phil Roof 36 R C -.205 .000 .000 .000 -2.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Here are some categories that didn't fit above:
Triples:
Steve Staggs 6, Bob Bailor 5, Al Woods 4, Alan Ashby 3, Doug Ault 3,
Dave McKay 3, Hector Torres 3, Otto Velez 3, Sam Ewing 2, Ron Fairly 2,
Doug Rader 2, Steve Bowling 1, Pedro Garcia 1, Roy Howell 1,
Tim Nordbrook 1, Gary Woods 1
Doubles (leaders):
Ron Fairly 24, Doug Ault 22, Bob Bailor 21, Otto Velez 19, Doug Rader 18,
Roy Howell 17, Al Woods 17, Alan Ashby 16, Steve Staggs 11
Times On Base (Hits + Walks) (leaders):
Ron Fairly 186, Bob Bailor 171, Al Woods 161, Roy Howell 157,
Otto Velez 157, Doug Ault 148, Alan Ashby 133, Doug Rader 113
Outs (AB-H+CS) (leaders):
Bob Bailor 348, Doug Ault 340, Ron Fairly 334, Al Woods 322, Alan Ashby 315,
Otto Velez 270, Roy Howell 250, Doug Rader 239, Steve Staggs 224
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Dave McKay 7.3, Gary Woods 5.4, John Scott 4.9, Pedro Garcia 4.2,
Sam Ewing 2.2, Hector Torres 2.1, Rick Cerone 2.0, Roy Howell 1.8,
Doug Ault 1.7, Doug Rader 1.7, Bob Bailor 1.5, Jim Mason 1.4,
Otto Velez 1.3, Steve Bowling 1.1, Steve Staggs 1.1, Al Woods 1.1,
Alan Ashby 1.0, Ron Fairly 1.0
No one was close to playing all 161 games:
Games Played (leaders):
Ron Fairly 132, Doug Ault 129, Alan Ashby 124, Bob Bailor 122, Al Woods 122,
Otto Velez 120, Sam Ewing 97, Roy Howell 96, Doug Rader 96, Dave McKay 95
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'77 Starting Pitchers
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The '77 Jays had three almost-average starters (opponents' EqA of .260 is
average). So which 21-year-old starter did you think would still be with the
team 10 years later?:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Jerry Garvin 21 L 10 18 4.19 4.71 4.77 244.7 .262 .264 .325 .428 33 4.7
Dave Lemanczyk 26 R 13 16 4.25 4.77 4.81 252.0 .263 .282 .340 .409 20 3.8
Jesse Jefferson 28 R 9 17 4.31 4.84 4.77 217.0 .263 .269 .335 .413 23 4.7
Jim Clancy 21 R 4 9 5.05 5.67 5.50 76.7 .280 .280 .381 .418 7 5.2
Jeff Byrd 20 R 2 13 6.18 6.94 6.01 87.3 .297 .286 .404 .398 5 4.1
I really wish we had made the Singer for Guidry trade:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Hargan 34 R 1 3 5.22 5.86 5.79 29.3 .284 .308 .382 .433 2 3.4
Bill Singer 33 R 2 8 6.79 7.63 6.18 59.7 .304 .296 .394 .428 5 5.0
Mike Darr 21 R 0 1 33.75 37.92 23.57 1.3 .553 .429 .636 .929 1 6.8
Games Started:
Dave Lemanczyk 34, Jerry Garvin 34, Jesse Jefferson 33, Jeff Byrd 17,
Jim Clancy 13, Bill Singer 12, Pete Vuckovich 8, Steve Hargan 5,
Mike Willis 3, Tom Murphy 1, Mike Darr 1
40 complete games! Even Jeff Byrd had one.
Complete Games:
Jerry Garvin 12, Dave Lemanczyk 11, Jesse Jefferson 8, Jim Clancy 4,
Pete Vuckovich 3, Jeff Byrd 1, Steve Hargan 1
Lemanczyk and Garvin both pitched into the 8th inning on average:
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Dave Lemanczyk 7.4, Jerry Garvin 7.2, Jesse Jefferson 6.6, Jim Clancy 5.9,
Jeff Byrd 5.1, Steve Hargan 4.9, Bill Singer 4.6, Mike Darr 1.3
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'77 Relief Pitchers
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After the season, the Jays traded their best pitcher, Pete Vuckovich, along
with OF John Scott, to St. Louis for LHP Tom Underwood and RHP Victor Cruz.
The next spring, LHP Dennis DeBarr was dealt to Cleveland for Rico Carty:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pete Vuckovich 24 R 7 7 3.47 3.90 4.35 148.0 .248 .257 .328 .387 13 7.5
Mike Willis 26 L 2 6 3.94 4.43 4.70 107.3 .258 .260 .324 .428 15 4.9
Tom Murphy 31 R 2 1 3.63 4.08 5.69 52.0 .265 .304 .360 .461 6 4.5
Jerry Johnson 33 R 2 4 4.60 5.17 5.68 86.0 .276 .279 .382 .426 9 5.7
Dennis DeBarr 24 L 0 1 5.91 6.64 6.07 21.3 .294 .337 .394 .454 1 4.2
Tom Bruno was traded to St. Louis for Rick Bosetti in the off-season.
That's "Chuck" Hartenstein with the long name, the oldest pitcher on the team:
Age W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
C Hartenstein 35 R 0 2 6.59 7.40 8.01 27.3 .318 .348 .380 .627 8 4.9
Tom Bruno 24 R 0 1 7.85 8.82 9.67 18.3 .342 .366 .453 .592 4 4.4
Relief Appearances:
Pete Vuckovich 45, Jerry Johnson 43, Mike Willis 40, Tom Murphy 18,
Dennis DeBarr 14, C Hartenstein 13, Tom Bruno 12, Steve Hargan 1,
Bill Singer 1
Saves:
Pete Vuckovich 8, Jerry Johnson 5, Mike Willis 5, Tom Murphy 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Pete Vuckovich 2.8, Tom Murphy 2.7, Mike Willis 2.5, C Hartenstein 2.1,
Jerry Johnson 2.0, Tom Bruno 1.5, Dennis DeBarr 1.5
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1977 American League Leaders
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Rod Carew won the MVP award, and with 144 Equivalent Runs, I won't argue.
I wouldn't have guessed Larry Hisle ever stole 21 bases:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 355 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Rod Carew MIN 1B .350 .388 .450 .570 9.11 144 128 100 14 23 13 685
Ken Singleton BAL OF .342 .328 .440 .507 8.14 125 90 99 24 0 1 643
Mitchell Page OAK OF .327 .307 .401 .521 7.71 109 85 75 21 42 5 579
Oscar Gamble CHW DH .323 .297 .379 .588 7.60 87 75 83 31 1 2 462
Reggie Jackson NYY OF .319 .286 .374 .550 7.21 111 93 110 32 17 3 599
Mike Hargrove TEX 1B .314 .305 .419 .476 7.14 104 98 69 18 2 5 628
Lyman Bostock MIN OF .314 .336 .388 .508 6.92 112 104 90 14 16 7 644
Larry Hisle MIN OF .311 .302 .367 .533 6.75 107 95 119 28 21 10 602
Andy Thornton CLE 1B .309 .263 .366 .527 6.58 87 77 70 28 3 4 503
Jim Rice BOS DH .309 .320 .372 .593 7.55 119 104 114 39 5 4 697
George Brett KAN 3B .309 .312 .373 .532 6.75 108 105 88 22 14 12 619
Toby Harrah TEX 3B .307 .263 .387 .479 6.74 107 90 87 27 27 5 648
Lou Piniella NYY OF .306 .330 .368 .510 6.48 60 47 45 12 2 2 359
Carlton Fisk BOS C .304 .315 .399 .521 7.24 97 106 102 26 7 6 611
Oh how I wish we'd made the Singer for Guidry trade. A reliever won the
Cy Young, and Jim Palmer finished 2nd, but I might have voted for Nolan Ryan
based on his high IP and low EqA (Ryan was 3rd, Leonard was 4th):
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 137.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Bert Blyleven TEX 14 12 2.72 3.06 3.00 234.7 .220 .214 .273 .333 20 7.0
Frank Tanana CAL 15 9 2.54 2.85 3.14 241.3 .223 .227 .277 .344 19 7.6
Ron Guidry NYY 16 7 2.82 3.17 3.07 210.7 .225 .224 .284 .323 12 7.5
Dennis Leonard KAN 20 12 3.04 3.42 3.07 292.7 .227 .227 .279 .330 18 7.5
Nolan Ryan CAL 19 16 2.77 3.11 3.28 299.0 .229 .193 .327 .274 12 10.3
Dock Ellis TEX 10 6 2.90 3.26 3.74 167.3 .233 .254 .301 .376 13 4.8
Jim Palmer BAL 20 11 2.91 3.27 3.29 319.0 .234 .229 .290 .344 24 5.4
Dave Rozema DET 15 7 3.09 3.47 4.08 218.3 .236 .265 .294 .414 25 3.8
Ferguson Jenkins BOS 10 10 3.68 4.13 4.31 193.0 .241 .257 .292 .434 30 4.9
Dave Goltz MIN 20 11 3.36 3.77 3.77 303.0 .242 .247 .302 .364 23 5.5
Dennis Eckersley CLE 14 13 3.53 3.97 3.53 247.3 .243 .231 .273 .382 31 7.0
Gaylord Perry TEX 15 12 3.37 3.79 4.04 238.0 .243 .262 .305 .392 21 6.7
Don Gullett NYY 14 4 3.58 4.02 3.89 158.3 .247 .232 .312 .356 14 6.6
Doyle Alexander TEX 17 11 3.65 4.10 4.08 237.0 .248 .246 .309 .382 24 3.1
Sparky Lyle won the Cy Young award:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA* R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Sparky Lyle NYY 13 5 2.17 2.44 3.57 137.0 .222 .257 .302 .360 7 4.5
Bill Campbell BOS 13 9 2.96 3.33 3.65 140.0 .224 .224 .307 .352 13 7.3
Lerrin LaGrow CHW 7 3 2.46 2.76 3.63 98.7 .225 .230 .300 .366 10 5.7
Steve Foucault DET 7 7 3.15 3.54 3.23 74.3 .226 .226 .270 .351 7 7.0
Enrique Romo SEA 8 10 2.83 3.18 3.28 114.3 .226 .227 .294 .338 8 8.3
Bob McClure MIL 2 1 2.52 2.83 3.84 71.3 .229 .249 .337 .333 2 7.2
Don Hood CLE 2 1 3.00 3.37 3.32 105.0 .232 .224 .311 .302 3 5.3
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Theory Stuff, 1977
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The expansion teams had the two worst Pythagorean records, though the Jays were
slightly ahead of the Mariners:
Pythagorean WPct Missed Wins
( 1) NYY 99-63 .610 | ( 1) CAL 5
( 2) KAN 98-64 .605 | ( 2) MIN 5
( 3) BOS 94-67 .585 | ( 3) TOR 4
( 4) TEX 92-70 .570 | ( 4) DET 3
( 5) MIN 89-72 .551 | ( 5) CLE 3
( 6) BAL 88-73 .544 | ( 6) OAK 2
( 7) CHW 88-74 .541 | ( 7) MIL 1
( 8) CAL 79-83 .487 | ( 8) NYY -1
( 9) DET 77-85 .477 | ( 9) TEX -2
(10) CLE 74-87 .459 | (10) CHW -2
(11) MIL 68-94 .418 | (11) BOS -3
(12) OAK 65-96 .404 | (12) KAN -4
(13) TOR 58-103 .363 | (13) SEA -6
(14) SEA 58-104 .360 | (14) BAL -9
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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Glossary
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General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) * (.260 ^ (1 / 0.4)) ) ^ 0.4
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .996 in 1977
Age: as of July 1, 1977
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, in 1977, the Jays scored 605 runs, allowed 822 runs, and
pitched 1428.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (4.56 in 1977)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Total Baseball, 5th ed. lists two park factors for each team, one for hitters
and one for pitchers, to correct for the advantage of not facing your own
team's pitching or vice versa, a minor detail. I took the average of the two
park factors for each team and normalized them so that their product was 1.0.
Example, if TB5's park factors were 105 and 106, I would average them to
105.5, which after normalization might be 1.054. To not repeat the 1.0 and
0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are (PF-1)*100. For example,
the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4. To get the park factor (PF)
from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1. TB5's park factors are
based on data from 1976-1978 except when the park changed.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: other hitters with at least 100 PA
Group3: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 4.56 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 1977 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 1977, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 4.56
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts (more if tie for 5th in starts)
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
RA*: RA estimated from ERA because pitcher runs is an astonishingly hard stat
to find for non-recent years; in 1977, estimated as 1.12*ERA
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA* and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.12*ERA)/6 + (RA*)/3 + (.996*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (4.56 in 1977),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, determined from H/BA, rounded to nearest integer
D: Doubles, estimated as .18*(H-HR) (based on 1977 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .19*D in 1977
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .067*(H+BB-D-T-HR) in 1977
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .64*SB in 1977
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.605(AB-H+CS))
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Sources
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Most raw data from Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive, http://www.baseball1.com
Ages, left vs right vs switch, games by position, from The Sports Encyclopedia:
Baseball 17th ed., 1997, David S. Neft and Richard M. Cohen.
Park factors are based on the ones in Total Baseball, Fifth Edition, 1997,
edited by John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Michael Gershman and David Pietrusza.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition, Gary Huckabay, Clay
Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Chris Kahrl, Joseph S. Sheehan,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
Jays trades are listed in the Toronto Blue Jays Official Guide 1996.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1998 Jan 28
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.