"85 wins would not be unrealistic." Carlos Tosca
Welcome to my 7th-annual "Blue Jays Projected Record" article in which I sum individual projections for the Blue Jays players to project a win-loss record for the Blue Jays *before* the season starts. (See disclaimer below on accuracy.)
For each player, I projected his Equivalent Average (EqA). For those new to EqA, an average major league hitter has an EqA of .260, and an EqA of .300 represents excellence. Because of the DH rule, the average American League hitter has about a .264 EqA. EqA is directly related to how much the player helps the team score runs.
For projected EqA, in most cases I used a formula (same as last year) that incorporates past major league performance, past minor league performance (when major league data seemed insufficient) and the player's age.
For projected plate appearances (PA), I picked a number in line with the player's playing time history but also considered how the Jays intend to use the player this year.
Here are the individual hitting projections:
Age ProjEqA
Stewart LF 29 .280 640 PA
Catalanotto RF 29 .277 450 PA
VWells CF 24 .263 630 PA
Delgado 1B 31 .312 620 PA
Phelps DH 25 .290 600 PA
EHinske 3B 25 .293 650 PA
OHudson 2B 25 .258 500 PA
Woodward SS 27 .266 400 PA
Huckaby C 32 .200 250 PA
---- ----
.277 4740 PA
Age ProjEqA
Bordick IF 37 .237 300 PA
Berg UT 32 .243 250 PA
TWilson C 32 .248 200 PA
GMyers C 37 .246 150 PA
Werth OF 24 .250 250 PA
KCash C 25 .240 150 PA
HClark IF 29 .240 50 PA
DWise OF 25 .230 35 PA
RJohnson OF 26 .220 20 PA
Pitchers .100 20 PA
---- ----
.241 1425 PA
The team offense projects to a .269 EqA. Remembering the 4% adjustment for the DH league, this works out to an offense 5% better than league average:
(.269/.260)^2.5 / 1.04 = 1.05 (5% above league average)
For example, if you figure an average team will score 5 runs per game, then the Jays would project to score 5*1.05 per game (5.25).
This performance would only be a modest improvement on last year's offense which was about 2% better than average (depending on the park factor estimate). While younger players are expected to improve, I don't project "breakout" seasons. If the Jays have one or more of those, the offense could be a lot better. On the other hand, if the Jays have to use the bench a lot, the offense would suffer (except at the catching position).
For projected opponents EqA, while I looked at formula estimates based on the pitchers' runs allowed history and "defense-independent" history (as per McCracken theory) including recent minor league history if major league data seemed insufficient, and while the pitcher's age was also considered, a lot of subjective reasoning went into the final guess. In particular, a lot of the pitchers don't have a lot of major league history, and some of those are over-age minor leaguers (e.g. ALopez, TMiller, DLinton). It's not well studied how to translate over-age minor league stats; I tended to assume they would not be much better than "replacement level".
For projected innings pitched (IP) and games started (GS), I picked numbers in line with what the pitcher had done in the past (adjusted somewhat based on the Jays' expected use of the player).
In principle, one should adjust for team fielding if its quality is expected to be different than most of the pitchers are used to. I don't expect a big quality difference from last year. The Jays might not be as strong in right-field, but the infield defense seems likely to be better.
For those not used to opponents EqA as a pitching stat, remember that .260 is average (like having a 4.50 ERA, or a .500 pitcher). Halladay's runs allowed average last year translated to .226 opponents EqA. "Replacement level" (what the better triple-A pitchers can probably do) would be about .275.
Here are the individual pitching projections:
Starters:
Age OppEqA
Halladay 26, 215 IP, .230, 32 GS
Lidle 31, 180 IP, .255, 30 GS
MHendrickson 29, 130 IP, .265, 20 GS
Sturtze 32, 170 IP, .275, 30 GS
JMiller 25, 140 IP, .270, 23 GS
PWalker 34, 120 IP, .270, 20 GS
JArnold 24, 35 IP, .265, 7 GS
---
990 IP .259
Pen:
Age OppEqA
KEscobar 27, 80 IP, .250
CPolitte 29, 75 IP, .240
DCreek 34, 50 IP, .280
JTam 32, 60 IP, .260
ALopez 28, 70 IP, .270
TMiller 30, 60 IP, .270
DLinton 38, 20 IP, .275
Bowles 26, 20 IP, .265
CThurman 24, 10 IP, .270
MSmith 25, 8 IP, .275
---
453 IP .261
Overall that works out to a projected .260 opponents EqA for the staff, or league average. That would be an improvement on last year (which was about 4% worse than average). The Jays focused on improving their pitching in the off-season, though only one of the new pitchers is projected to be better than average (Cory Lidle). While the above assumes another strong season from Roy Halladay, he wouldn't have to pitch as well or as much as last year to exceed the above projection.
To estimate the projected team winning percentage, we use the Pythagorean formula with an exponent of 1.83:
1.05^1.83 / (1.05^1.83 + 1.00^1.83) = 0.522 wpct -->85 wins, 77 losses
So that's my official projection this year: 85 wins.
85 wins would be 7 more wins than last year's team achieved and 5 more wins than last year's Pythagorean record. However, it's 9 fewer wins than you would project from last year's post-All Star Break record (44-32, .579) because the evidence of earlier performance was not ignored.
85 wins is also the number Carlos Tosca said "would not be unrealistic" for this year's team. It would be 4 fewer than the Jays won in Bobby Cox's second year (1983). (In Cox's first year, the Jays won 78, the same as the 2002 Jays.)
But another third-place finish out-of-the-playoffs is not inevitable. For instance, the 2003 Jays have similarities to the 2000 White Sox. In 1999, the young White Sox won just 75 games with poor pitching. In 2000, their hitters improved a lot, their pitching became a little better than average, and they won 95 games (most in the league). Last year, the Jays played at a 94-win pace after the All-Star Break.
Toss a fair coin 162 times, and your best bet is to predict 81 heads, but there's only a 6% of chance of that happening, even though it really is the best bet. There's a 5% chance that the fair coin will produce either 68 heads or fewer or 94 heads or more.
Even if this article has accurately estimated the Jays' probability of winning each game, there's just a 6% chance of the projected win total matching the actual. The 95% confidence interval for an "85-win coin" is approximately 73 to 97 wins.
(But we're not claiming to even be 95% sure of a 73 to 97 win season, because we can't be sure the errors in the individual projections will all cancel out, and we can't be sure that all the other assumptions of this article are valid.)
If we do assume an 85-win quality team, the Jays have a 24% chance of winning 90 games or more and a 7% chance of winning 95 or more (based on assuming a probability of 85/162 of winning each game).
Previous year's articles are on the web at
Sources:
-- Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/ mailto:stephent@magma.ca Ottawa, Ontario "What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
Last Updated: 2003 Mar 30
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.