"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesThis article (minus a few minor edits) was mailed to the Blue Jays' mailing list July 8, 1997.
Date: Tue, 08 Jul 1997 From: Stephen Tomlinson To: jays@hivnet.ubc.ca Subject: Processed Jays' Stats, '97 All-Star Break
Stats are through the All-Star Break (July 7-9/97):
The Jays are 2nd best at preventing runs, but are so far down in hitting, scoring an extra run per game would have them just 12th. The Tigers' youth movement has put them ahead of the Orioles in hitting and the White Sox in pitching:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Seattle 5.94 | ( 1) Baltimore 3.90 | ( 1) Baltimore 55-30 .647
( 2) Cleveland 5.82 | ( 2) Toronto 4.18 | ( 2) NYYankees 48-37 .565
( 3) Boston 5.50 | ( 3) NYYankees 4.21 | ( 3) Seattle 49-38 .563
( 4) Detroit 5.43 | ( 4) Kansas City 4.94 | ( 4) Cleveland 44-36 .550
( 5) Baltimore 5.30 | ( 5) Detroit 4.95 | ( 5) Anaheim 44-42 .512
( 6) NYYankees 5.20 | ( 6) Texas 4.95 | ( 6) Texas 43-42 .506
( 7) Anaheim 5.12 | ( 7) Anaheim 5.01 | ( 6) White Sox 43-42 .506
( 8) Texas 5.09 | ( 8) White Sox 5.15 | ( 8) Detroit 41-44 .482
( 9) White Sox 5.05 | ( 9) Milwaukee 5.17 | ( 9) Toronto 40-43 .482
(10) Oakland 5.00 | (10) Minnesota 5.29 | (10) Milwaukee 39-44 .470
(11) Minnesota 5.00 | (11) Cleveland 5.45 | (11) Boston 38-48 .442
(12) Kansas City 4.68 | (12) Seattle 5.50 | (12) Kansas City 36-46 .439
(13) Milwaukee 4.65 | (13) Boston 5.73 | (13) Minnesota 37-48 .435
(14) Toronto 3.80 | (14) Oakland 6.12 | (14) Oakland 37-52 .416
Avg 5.11 Avg 5.04 594-592
Note: The first column is runs scored per 9 innings pitched by that team's pitchers, not against the hitters. For example, the Jays have 316 runs scored, 348 runs allowed, and 748.2 innings pitched, from which the above was calculated.
Carlos Delgado (25, $0.5 million) is the Jays' best hitter (highest RPG). Orlando Merced (30, $2.7 million) and Shawn Green (24, $0.5 million) are the Jays' other two above-average hitters (RPG > 5.1). Ed "Not Injured" Sprague (29, $1.9 million) has fallen to the levels of Otis Nixon (38, $2.5 million) and Charlie O'Brien (36, $0.6 million). Battling for 7th-best are Joe Carter (37, $6.5 million) and Alex Gonzalez (24, $0.5 million). Carlos Garcia (29, $2.4 million) and Benito Santiago (32, $2.5 million) have been key to the Jays' standout offensive numbers. Jacob Brumfield (32, $0.9 million) is the Jays' highest-paid bench player. To sum it up, the Jays' have paid a high price for their loyalty to veterans:
BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI BB SB 2B HR PA
Orlando Merced TOR .282 .353 .440 5.47 47 34 36 34 6 21 8 343
Carlos Delgado TOR .266 .350 .548 6.65 47 40 43 32 0 18 16 280
Ed Sprague TOR .235 .304 .435 4.51 41 44 33 30 0 25 10 336
Otis Nixon TOR .266 .363 .298 4.52 38 43 18 44 38 7 0 333
Joe Carter TOR .235 .291 .378 3.75 35 38 51 25 5 13 10 340
Alex Gonzalez TOR .241 .279 .376 3.63 30 26 24 15 13 13 7 297
Shawn Green TOR .273 .331 .472 5.40 25 19 18 14 5 9 7 175
Carlos Garcia TOR .215 .248 .296 2.37 18 22 12 11 9 13 1 258
Charlie O'Brien TOR .243 .311 .423 4.54 15 12 21 11 0 9 3 122
Benito Santiago TOR .197 .230 .273 1.79 10 11 17 8 1 5 3 191
Tilson Brito TOR .282 .337 .318 3.74 9 6 6 7 0 3 0 92
Jacob Brumfield TOR .192 .250 .250 1.87 6 8 12 8 2 3 1 112
Ruben Sierra TOR .208 .255 .354 2.94 4 4 5 3 0 0 1 51
Juan Samuel TOR .217 .294 .283 2.83 4 5 5 5 3 1 0 51
Robert Perez TOR .208 .208 .396 2.72 4 2 3 0 0 4 1 48
Julio Mosquera TOR .250 .250 .375 3.01 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 8
Tomas Perez TOR .167 .375 .167 3.29 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 8
Shannon Stewart TOR .000 .500 .000 5.78 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
Felipe Crespo TOR .000 .000 .000 -2.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
TORONTO .243 .305 .381 4.04 334 316 305 250 82 68 3059
Roger Clemens (34, $8.3 million) has been the Jays' best pitcher, though Pat Hentgen (28, $3.3 million) has been slightly more durable. Juan Guzman (30, $4.0 million) has normally been effective when healthy. Woody Williams (30, $0.4 million) and Robert Person (27, $0.2 million) are excellent 4th and 5th starters. The Canadian Connection of Paul Spoljaric (26, $0.2 million) and Paul Quantrill (28, $0.7 million) lead the relievers, not yet counting Kelvim Escobar (21, $0.2 million). Mike Timlin (31, $1.3 million) has been okay. Dan Plesac (35, $0.8 million) has a good ERA, probably at the expense of others. Erik Hanson (32, $3.5 million) is the Jays' highest-paid disabled:
W L ERA TRA RPG R IP BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pat Hentgen TOR 8 6 3.27 3.57 3.81 60 151.1 .250 .298 .388 15 5.7
Roger Clemens TOR 13 3 1.69 1.76 2.28 27 138.1 .204 .258 .291 6 9.1
Woody Williams TOR 3 8 4.59 4.77 4.51 53 100.0 .252 .314 .427 15 5.4
Robert Person TOR 3 5 4.80 4.93 4.41 36 65.2 .251 .315 .416 9 7.3
Juan Guzman TOR 3 5 4.13 5.68 4.01 33 52.1 .205 .312 .377 8 7.6
Paul Quantrill TOR 4 2 1.64 2.25 3.70 11 44.0 .275 .299 .379 2 5.5
Paul Spoljaric TOR 0 3 3.35 3.35 2.90 15 40.1 .203 .283 .314 3 8.0
Mike Timlin TOR 2 0 2.41 2.89 3.97 12 37.1 .244 .295 .407 5 7.0
Dan Plesac TOR 0 3 4.44 5.18 5.61 14 24.1 .290 .344 .479 4 10.4
Tim Crabtree TOR 2 2 8.46 8.46 8.28 21 22.1 .364 .417 .570 4 4.8
Luis Andujar TOR 0 4 7.06 9.14 9.37 22 21.2 .371 .440 .609 5 5.8
Huck Flener TOR 0 0 8.22 8.22 9.57 14 15.1 .418 .447 .601 2 4.1
Erik Hanson TOR 0 0 7.50 7.50 5.59 10 12.0 .245 .334 .493 3 9.8
Chris Carpenter TOR 0 2 12.71 14.29 14.88 18 11.1 .467 .530 .772 4 8.7
Kelvim Escobar TOR 2 0 1.08 1.08 .73 1 8.1 .113 .230 .143 0 8.6
Marty Janzen TOR 0 0 2.25 2.25 6.01 1 4.0 .262 .347 .510 1 2.3
TORONTO 40 43 3.80 4.18 4.29 348 748.2 .255 .315 .406 86 7.0
John Olerud (28, $6.5 million) has been the best of the former Jay hitters. It would be nice if at least one of Roberto Alomar (29, $6.2 million) or Jeff Kent (29, $2.6 million) was still around. Paul Molitor (40, $3.5 million) is still going strong. Devon White (34, $3.4 million) has hit well when healthy:
BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI BB SB 2B HR PA
John Olerud NYM .305 .392 .506 7.07 58 58 61 44 0 23 13 352
Geronimo Berroa BAL .292 .379 .503 6.72 55 45 46 42 3 12 17 340
Fred McGriff ATL .281 .364 .419 5.52 48 41 50 41 4 11 10 354
Jeff Kent SFG .248 .304 .497 5.27 46 46 64 24 6 20 18 322
Roberto Alomar BAL .307 .375 .449 6.11 45 44 36 30 7 11 8 304
Cecil Fielder NYY .259 .359 .402 5.19 44 34 50 47 0 13 10 348
Paul Molitor MIN .318 .375 .447 5.99 42 32 47 24 5 18 4 288
Glenallen Hill SFG .248 .274 .426 3.89 32 28 48 10 4 18 8 292
Mark Whiten NYY .258 .357 .396 5.14 27 31 23 28 4 10 5 210
Derek Bell HOU .247 .304 .370 3.85 25 24 26 18 6 10 5 237
Tony Fernandez CLE .274 .311 .388 4.14 23 27 19 11 3 14 3 212
Domingo Cedeno TEX .311 .350 .470 5.69 20 20 14 8 3 9 2 140
Greg Myers MIN .275 .346 .442 5.35 18 18 21 13 0 9 3 133
Luis Sojo NYY .305 .354 .347 4.38 14 11 16 9 2 2 1 127
Devon White FLO .271 .393 .386 5.78 12 10 5 14 5 8 0 84
Rob Butler PHI .292 .330 .416 4.79 12 10 13 5 1 9 0 94
Pat Borders CLE .322 .375 .492 6.51 10 9 8 5 0 1 3 64
Rob Ducey SEA .253 .300 .400 3.99 9 12 6 5 2 8 1 80
Nelson Liriano LAD .228 .302 .386 3.99 7 8 8 6 0 6 1 63
Turner Ward PIT .429 .429 .714 10.98 3 1 2 0 0 1 1 14
David Cone (34, $6.7 million), Jimmy Key (36, $2.3 million) and David Wells (34, $3.2 million) are getting all the attention, but Todd Stottlemyre (32, $4.1 million) has done well too. Al Leiter (31, $2.9 million) is having an off year, though not so disappointing as Tony Castillo (34, $1.1 million):
W L ERA TRA RPG R IP BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Cone NYY 8 4 2.55 2.81 3.61 42 134.1 .225 .310 .346 11 10.7
Todd Stottlemyre STL 7 6 3.95 4.24 3.39 58 123.0 .229 .290 .356 11 7.9
Jimmy Key BAL 12 4 2.55 2.79 3.92 36 116.1 .249 .311 .378 10 5.3
David Wells NYY 9 4 3.82 4.14 4.25 52 113.0 .270 .307 .417 12 5.8
Steve Karsay OAK 2 8 5.49 5.91 5.86 69 105.0 .297 .354 .485 17 6.6
Danny Darwin CHW 3 6 3.46 4.04 4.91 42 93.2 .271 .325 .448 14 4.7
Al Leiter FLO 7 6 5.02 5.36 4.98 48 80.2 .253 .365 .382 7 7.5
Tom Candiotti LAD 5 2 2.80 3.29 3.25 20 54.2 .226 .273 .368 6 6.1
Aaron Small OAK 6 4 5.13 5.30 5.37 31 52.2 .298 .377 .402 2 5.3
Xavier Hernandez TEX 0 2 3.77 3.98 3.96 19 43.0 .229 .312 .376 5 6.9
Billy Taylor OAK 2 4 5.40 5.40 5.12 22 36.2 .258 .371 .385 3 7.9
Tony Castillo CHW 3 3 6.23 8.60 6.33 29 30.1 .319 .387 .468 3 5.6
Darren Hall LAD 2 2 2.27 2.56 5.18 9 31.2 .282 .368 .400 2 7.7
Graeme Lloyd NYY 1 1 3.86 5.57 6.79 13 21.0 .321 .391 .500 3 3.9
Dane Johnson OAK 3 0 4.12 5.49 6.68 12 19.2 .302 .394 .485 3 11.0
Ricardo Jordan NYM 1 2 5.59 6.05 5.87 13 19.1 .306 .391 .421 1 6.5
Edwin Hurtado SEA 1 1 8.76 8.76 8.60 12 12.1 .315 .437 .560 3 3.6
Dave Weathers NYY 0 1 10.00 10.00 9.10 10 9.0 .371 .464 .537 1 4.0
With Frank Thomas (29, $7.2 million) injured, he's been passed in the A.L. Estimated Runs Produced race by Ken Griffey (27, $7.5 million), Edgar Martinez (34, $3.0 million), Mark McGwire (33, $7.1 million), and Tino Martinez (29, $4.3 million). Albert Belle (30, $10.0 million) has finally made the leader board:
BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI BB SB 2B HR PA
Ken GriffeyJr SEA .307 .385 .647 8.64 75 67 84 41 8 16 30 364
Edgar Martinez SEA .342 .452 .561 9.18 73 65 66 62 2 20 16 372
Mark McGwire OAK .288 .390 .662 8.85 72 44 71 50 1 19 31 349
Tino Martinez NYY .302 .376 .619 8.09 72 57 78 39 2 19 28 370
Frank Thomas CHW .368 .484 .636 11.17 71 58 63 59 1 19 17 320
Jim Thome CLE .298 .443 .628 9.71 68 57 62 67 1 13 24 325
Tony Clark DET .291 .409 .572 8.15 67 61 73 60 1 14 22 359
Rusty Greer TEX .329 .421 .538 8.05 67 59 45 50 6 23 13 366
Albert Belle CHW .298 .355 .528 6.51 60 50 70 30 3 22 18 369
Ivan Rodriguez TEX .337 .369 .528 6.88 60 56 40 17 5 26 11 358
Mo Vaughn BOS .335 .436 .628 9.63 59 49 45 43 2 10 20 282
Chuck Knoblauch MIN .289 .397 .412 6.53 59 68 36 58 34 15 5 383
Hentgen and Clemens lead the A.L. in Innings Pitched:
W L ERA TRA RPG R IP BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pat Hentgen TOR 8 6 3.27 3.57 3.81 60 151.1 .250 .298 .388 15 5.7
Roger Clemens TOR 13 3 1.69 1.76 2.28 27 138.1 .204 .258 .291 6 9.1
David Cone NYY 8 4 2.55 2.81 3.61 42 134.1 .225 .310 .346 11 10.7
Andy Pettitte NYY 9 5 3.10 3.50 3.56 52 133.2 .255 .308 .349 5 6.1
Kevin Appier KAN 6 6 2.68 2.95 3.24 43 131.0 .218 .283 .351 13 7.5
Tim Belcher KAN 8 7 3.92 4.12 4.57 60 131.0 .273 .326 .415 13 5.2
Randy Johnson SEA 12 2 2.20 2.40 2.58 35 131.0 .183 .262 .310 13 11.5
Justin Thompson DET 8 6 2.95 3.16 3.31 45 128.1 .220 .289 .349 12 6.4
Brad Radke MIN 10 5 4.13 4.63 4.54 65 126.1 .281 .318 .426 13 6.4
Jose Rosado KAN 7 4 3.39 3.83 3.64 53 124.2 .237 .293 .376 13 5.3
Mike Mussina BAL 10 2 3.26 3.47 3.14 48 124.1 .227 .272 .359 12 8.8
Jeff Fassero SEA 8 5 3.99 4.57 4.44 63 124.0 .265 .336 .386 9 7.2
If you divide by 1.33, you get that the Rockies are 7th in hitting and 6th in pitching. The Pirates are .500 after dumping their salaries on the Jays. The Expos are .547 after dumping their salaries on everyone else. Imagine if the Phillies had *kept* Santiago:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Colorado 5.84 | ( 1) Atlanta 3.52 | ( 1) Atlanta 57-30 .655
( 2) Atlanta 5.21 | ( 2) Los Angeles 3.80 | ( 2)SanFrancisco 51-36 .586
( 3) San Diego 5.08 | ( 3) Florida 3.95 | ( 3) Florida 50-36 .581
( 4) NYMets 4.73 | ( 4) St. Louis 3.96 | ( 4) NYMets 48-38 .558
( 5) Montreal 4.59 | ( 5) NYMets 4.27 | ( 5) Montreal 47-39 .547
( 6)SanFrancisco 4.44 | ( 6) Houston 4.33 | ( 6) Los Angeles 45-42 .517
( 7) Cubs 4.40 | ( 7) Montreal 4.45 | ( 7) Pittsburgh 43-43 .500
( 8) Houston 4.33 | ( 8) Cubs 4.62 | ( 8) Colorado 43-45 .489
( 9) Pittsburgh 4.32 | ( 9)SanFrancisco 4.66 | ( 8) Houston 43-45 .489
(10) St. Louis 4.32 | (10) Pittsburgh 4.68 | (10) St. Louis 41-45 .477
(11) Florida 4.31 | (11) Cincinnati 4.72 | (11) Cincinnati 38-48 .442
(12) Los Angeles 4.20 | (12) San Diego 5.68 | (12) San Diego 38-49 .437
(13) Cincinnati 3.87 | (13) Colorado 5.78 | (13) Cubs 37-50 .425
(14)Philadelphia 3.72 | (14)Philadelphia 6.07 | (14)Philadelphia 24-61 .282
Avg 4.53 Avg 4.60 605-607
Olerud has fallen to 13th in the N.L. Estimated Runs Produced race. Larry Walker (30, $5.8 million) would be 3rd if you divide his ERP by 1.33, and Galarraga would be well off the chart:
BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI BB SB 2B HR PA
Larry Walker COL .398 .480 .741 12.59 93 79 68 49 19 25 25 358
Jeff Bagwell HOU .314 .434 .632 9.59 82 58 78 67 14 27 24 385
Tony Gwynn SDP .394 .438 .588 9.19 72 55 71 26 8 23 13 356
A. Galarraga COL .323 .387 .582 7.84 68 66 84 34 8 15 22 362
Mike Piazza LAD .357 .427 .580 8.89 66 51 51 37 1 19 16 337
Barry Bonds SFG .275 .414 .540 8.04 66 60 46 68 14 10 20 355
Craig Biggio HOU .305 .379 .504 6.84 64 76 44 41 14 24 13 388
Todd Hundley NYM .300 .443 .609 9.43 62 53 51 62 2 16 19 305
Ray Lankford STL .333 .435 .646 9.69 62 49 61 43 15 22 17 283
Chipper Jones ATL .307 .390 .508 7.31 62 55 69 43 15 22 14 362
Jeff Blauser ATL .346 .422 .576 8.67 62 58 42 37 3 23 12 320
J.T. Snow SFG .299 .404 .517 7.45 58 44 47 51 4 24 13 339
John Olerud NYM .305 .392 .506 7.07 58 58 61 44 0 23 13 352
Pedro Martinez (25, $3.5 million) has been the toughest pitcher to hit in the N.L. of the top 14 in Innings Pitched:
W L ERA TRA RPG R IP BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Darryl Kile HOU 10 3 2.17 2.42 3.05 38 141.1 .213 .292 .318 9 6.9
John Smoltz ATL 8 7 2.92 3.18 3.76 48 135.2 .255 .296 .386 12 7.0
Tom Glavine ATL 9 4 2.62 2.89 3.06 43 134.0 .232 .290 .326 6 5.0
Curt Schilling PHI 9 8 3.59 4.26 3.76 63 133.0 .241 .294 .387 15 10.8
Denny Neagle ATL 12 2 3.20 3.62 3.44 52 129.1 .252 .291 .363 8 5.9
Kevin Brown FLO 8 5 2.67 2.81 3.19 40 128.0 .245 .292 .338 5 8.2
Alan Benes STL 7 7 2.55 3.05 2.96 43 127.0 .201 .282 .321 11 9.6
Bobby Jones NYM 12 5 3.08 3.44 3.80 48 125.2 .237 .292 .393 16 5.8
Greg Maddux ATL 11 3 2.36 2.44 2.27 34 125.2 .227 .248 .310 4 7.1
Pedro Martinez MON 10 4 1.74 2.32 2.16 32 124.0 .188 .249 .288 8 11.2
T. Stottlemyre STL 7 6 3.95 4.24 3.39 58 123.0 .229 .290 .356 11 7.9
T. Mulholland CHC 6 9 3.72 4.25 4.20 56 118.2 .264 .307 .412 13 4.2
Alex Fernandez FLO 9 7 3.63 3.86 3.45 50 116.2 .233 .285 .371 12 6.8
Hideo Nomo LAD 8 7 3.81 4.12 3.67 53 115.2 .226 .311 .350 10 10.2
Batting Stats Glossary:
BA: Batting Average (H/AB)
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced, 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.61(AB-H+CS)),
background info at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
RPG: Runs Per Game (26.0*ERP/(AB-H+CS)), estimate of how many runs a lineup
of that player would score in a game, AL avg roughly 5.11 so far
AB: At Bats, BB: Walks, SB: Stolen Bases, HR: Home Runs
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
H: Hits, D: Doubles, T: Triples, CS: Caught Stealing.
Pitching Stats Glossary:
W: Wins, L: Losses,
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP)
TRA: Total Run Average (9*R/IP)
RPG: Runs Per Game (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R: Runs allowed, ER: Earned Runs allowed
IP: Innings Pitched
BA: Batting Average against pitcher (H/AB, AB estimated as below)
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher ((H+BB)/(AB+BB), AB estimated below)
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (estimated as per below)
HR: Home Runs allowed
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
H: Hits allowed
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
D: Doubles, estimated as .219*(H-HR) (based on '96 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .0219*(H-HR) (based on '96 AL average)
AB: At Bats against pitcher, estimated as .940*3*IP+H
SB: Stolen Bases, guessed 0; CS: Caught Stealing, guessed 0
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.61(AB-H+CS))
Raw stats taken from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/1997.html. They are unofficial.
-- Stephen Tomlinson Ottawa, Ontario "What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1997 July 9
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