"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesEquivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every Blue Jay at the 2000 All-Star Break (Major League Leaders are included too).
Link to Jays page. Link to other Stat Reports.
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First Half of 2000 in Context
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The Jays are 3 games back in the loss column from a playoff spot with
73 games to play:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Oakland 6.12 | ( 1) Seattle 4.56 | ( 1) White Sox 55-32 .632
( 2) White Sox 6.12 | ( 2) Boston 4.68 | ( 2) Seattle 51-35 .593
( 3) Seattle 5.97 | ( 3) NYYankees 4.93 | ( 3) Oakland 48-38 .558
( 4) TORONTO 5.73 | ( 4) White Sox 5.07 | ( 4) NYYankees 45-38 .542
( 5) Texas 5.70 | ( 5) Cleveland 5.18 | ( 5) TORONTO 48-41 .539
( 6) Cleveland 5.57 | ( 6) Anaheim 5.34 | ( 6) Anaheim 47-41 .534
( 7) Anaheim 5.49 | ( 7) Detroit 5.36 | ( 7) Boston 43-41 .512
( 8) NYYankees 5.41 | ( 8) Oakland 5.43 | ( 8) Cleveland 44-42 .512
( 9) Kansas City 5.38 | ( 9) Tampa Bay 5.66 | ( 9) Texas 42-43 .494
(10) Baltimore 5.35 | (10) Minnesota 5.72 | (10) Kansas City 39-46 .459
(11) Boston 5.28 | (11) Texas 5.75 | (11) Detroit 38-46 .452
(12) Tampa Bay 4.90 | (12) TORONTO 5.97 | (12) Baltimore 38-48 .442
(13) Minnesota 4.90 | (13) Baltimore 6.08 | (13) Minnesota 38-52 .422
(14) Detroit 4.58 | (14) Kansas City 6.22 | (14) Tampa Bay 34-51 .400
Avg 5.47 Avg 5.43 610-594
Correcting the above for park factor, the Jays' hitting has been 5th-best
in the league, but not a lot better than average (league average set to
.260):
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SEA OAK CHW NYY TOR CLE BAL ANA TEX KAN BOS TAM MIN DET
.279 .276 .274 .265 .263 .262 .262 .260 .257 .257 .253 .249 .245 .243
Correcting runs allowed for park factor, the Jays' pitching & defense
has been 3rd-worst in the league:
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
BOS SEA CHW CLE NYY ANA TEX DET MIN OAK TAM TOR KAN BAL
.241 .250 .254 .255 .255 .257 .258 .258 .261 .263 .264 .267 .272 .276
The park factors were estimated by double-weighting the 1997-1999 park
factor and single-weighting the 1st-half-of-2000 park factor, except
when the park changed:
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 10 11 12 13 14
TEX BOS MIN TOR KAN ANA CLE DET TAM CHW OAK BAL NYY SEA
7.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 -1.5 -3.0 -3.5 -5.0 -8.0
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2000 Hitters at All-Star Break
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Carlos Delgado was the league's best hitter in the 1st-half and carried
the Jays' offense. Raul Mondesi and Tony Batista were the best of the other
full-time players. The middle infield's hitting had room for improvement:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado 28 L 1B .355 .363 .476 .709 11.66 92 74 80 28 0 0 393
Darrin Fletcher 33 L C .300 .349 .387 .571 7.69 37 20 33 10 1 0 204
Shannon Stewart 26 R LF .297 .339 .380 .558 7.51 53 49 36 11 13 2 297
Brad Fullmer 25 L DH .285 .305 .363 .541 6.74 49 44 53 14 3 1 295
Raul Mondesi 29 R RF .279 .278 .337 .545 6.42 63 73 63 23 21 4 380
Tony Batista 26 R 3B .277 .289 .328 .571 6.29 58 56 72 24 3 3 351
Jose CruzJr 26 S CF .257 .240 .321 .477 5.23 54 52 47 20 9 2 390
Alex Gonzalez 27 R SS .227 .240 .306 .378 3.82 31 34 32 7 4 3 294
Homer Bush 27 R 2B .175 .214 .274 .243 1.99 15 32 14 0 7 4 263
The bench was the other reason the offense was not much better than average in
the 1st-half:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Craig Grebeck 35 R IF .240 .276 .326 .402 4.41 16 21 10 3 0 0 138
Marty Cordova 30 R OF .230 .271 .331 .354 3.95 16 16 12 2 2 1 157
Chris Woodward 24 R IF .207 .171 .261 .354 3.03 8 14 13 3 1 0 92
Alberto Castillo 30 R C .187 .211 .275 .271 2.35 10 10 13 1 0 0 149
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 ERP R RBI HR SB CS PA
Todd Greene 29 R C .290 .353 .353 .588 7.08 3 3 2 1 0 0 17
Andy Thompson 24 R OF .248 .167 .444 .167 4.79 1 2 1 0 0 0 9
Dewayne Wise 22 L OF .086 .150 .190 .150 .34 0 2 0 0 1 0 21
Charlie Greene 29 R C -.133 .111 .111 .111 -1.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
The Pitchers -.147 .071 .103 .071 -1.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 29
Josh Phelps 22 R C -.193 .000 .000 .000 -2.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
TORONTO .278 .343 .482 5.66 506 502 481 147 65 20 3487
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio:
Tony Batista 3.9, Homer Bush 3.1, Shannon Stewart 2.6, Chris Woodward 2.4,
Alex Gonzalez 2.4, Raul Mondesi 2.3, Marty Cordova 2.1, Craig Grebeck 2.0,
Albert Castillo 1.8, Jose CruzJr 1.7, Brad Fullmer 1.7,
Darrin Fletcher 1.6, Carlos Delgado 1.0
Games Played (leaders):
Carlos Delgado 89, Jose CruzJr 89, Raul Mondesi 86, Tony Batista 81,
Alex Gonzalez 77, Brad Fullmer 75, Shannon Stewart 64, Homer Bush 61
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2000 Starting Pitchers at All-Star Break
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David Wells and Frank Castillo were among the best starters in the league in
the first-half, and Kelvim Escobar was an average starter. Chris Carpenter
appeared not to have fully recovered from elbow problems, and Roy Halladay
mysteriously fell apart:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
David Wells 37 L 15 2 3.44 3.86 4.28 128.3 .229 .283 .311 .414 10 7.0
Frank Castillo 31 R 6 5 4.17 4.44 4.44 99.3 .238 .232 .325 .399 14 6.9
Kelvim Escobar 24 R 6 9 5.26 5.65 5.47 114.7 .260 .279 .359 .439 14 6.3
Chris Carpenter 25 R 7 7 6.13 6.29 6.12 108.7 .272 .285 .364 .488 20 5.2
Roy Halladay 23 R 3 5 11.68 11.68 8.68 49.3 .333 .353 .436 .562 9 5.7
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Peter Munro 25 R 1 1 5.96 7.71 7.43 25.7 .290 .341 .437 .459 1 5.6
Games Started:
David Wells 19, Kelvim Escobar 18, Chris Carpenter 18, Frank Castillo 17,
Roy Halladay 10, Peter Munro 3, Lance Painter 2, Clayton Andrews 2
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
David Wells 6.8, Kelvim Escobar 6.4, Chris Carpenter 6.0,
Frank Castillo 5.8, Roy Halladay 4.5, Peter Munro 2.9
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2000 Relief Pitchers at All-Star Break
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Billy Koch has been the Jays' best reliever. Lance Painter hurt his elbow
starting 2 games. Paul Quantrill was a little better than average overall
but not in the clutch. The rest of the pen was generally ineffective:
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Billy Koch 25 R 4 1 2.74 3.13 4.26 46.0 .220 .267 .317 .401 4 7.8
Lance Painter 32 L 1 0 4.42 4.89 4.49 38.7 .242 .245 .302 .443 7 7.7
Paul Quantrill 31 R 0 5 4.68 5.22 4.86 50.0 .249 .285 .341 .417 4 4.5
Pedro Borbon 32 L 1 0 4.76 6.99 6.72 28.3 .277 .289 .404 .464 4 7.0
John Frascatore 30 R 1 3 7.14 8.26 7.41 40.3 .296 .306 .397 .538 9 3.1
Age W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Matt DeWitt 22 R 1 0 7.11 7.11 8.80 12.7 .301 .332 .436 .573 3 3.6
Darwin Cubillan 25 R 1 0 8.04 8.04 8.63 15.7 .307 .308 .416 .603 5 8.0
Eric Gunderson 34 L 0 1 7.11 8.53 10.87 6.3 .322 .453 .498 .577 0 2.8
Clayton Andrews 22 L 1 2 10.02 10.02 9.32 20.7 .326 .365 .421 .640 6 5.2
John Bale 26 L 0 0 14.73 17.18 10.45 3.7 .371 .323 .488 .587 1 14.7
Relief Appearances:
Pedro Borbon 41, Paul Quantrill 39, Billy Koch 37, John Frascatore 35,
Lance Painter 21, Matt Dewitt 7, Darwin Cubillan 7, Peter Munro 6,
Eric Gunderson 6, Clayton Andrews 6, John Bale 2, Roy Halladay 1
Saves:
Billy Koch 20, Paul Quantrill 1
Innings Pitched Per Game (IP/G):
Clayton Andrews 2.6, Darwin Cubillan 2.2, John Bale 1.8, Matt Dewitt 1.8,
Lance Painter 1.7, Paul Quantrill 1.3, Billy Koch 1.2, John Frascatore 1.2,
Eric Gunderson 1.1, Pedro Borbon .7
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Former and Future Jays in 2000
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Shawn Green outhit Raul Mondesi in the first-half. Brad Fullmer hit about
the same as David Segui and better than Jose Canseco and Mike Stanley:
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
John Olerud SEA .308 .306 .419 .489 7.39 57 58 60 8 0 1 377
Shawn Green LAD .303 .294 .404 .509 7.33 59 57 59 13 15 3 386
Ed Sprague SDP .298 .274 .336 .615 6.98 21 17 25 10 0 0 131
David Segui TEX .287 .343 .397 .520 7.19 45 47 52 9 0 1 340
Fred McGriff TAM .278 .282 .366 .491 6.19 47 45 62 18 0 0 363
Lee Stevens MON .271 .262 .347 .503 5.85 42 42 56 17 0 0 329
Jose Canseco TAM .268 .261 .363 .452 5.67 22 22 20 7 1 0 182
Roberto Alomar CLE .258 .267 .338 .419 5.15 42 55 39 9 21 1 367
Willie Greene CHC .244 .236 .324 .416 4.63 18 19 21 7 2 0 185
Mike Stanley BOS .243 .222 .327 .411 4.61 21 22 28 10 0 0 217
Tom Evans TEX .243 .278 .394 .352 4.73 6 10 5 0 0 3 66
Devon White LAD .240 .289 .322 .422 4.08 9 13 9 3 1 4 87
Mike Matheny STL .220 .250 .312 .353 3.63 20 23 23 3 0 0 247
Ed Sprague BOS .096 .118 .211 .147 .45 0 3 4 0 0 0 38
Age EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Chris Stynes CIN .357 .449 .486 .714 12.22 21 24 16 6 1 1 107
Jeff Kent SFG .344 .355 .436 .673 10.02 75 70 85 23 7 4 383
Mark Whiten CLE .321 .286 .500 .429 8.86 1 2 1 0 0 0 10
Derek Bell NYM .290 .318 .398 .498 6.87 52 63 53 12 6 3 374
Felipe Crespo SFG .273 .310 .367 .465 5.63 10 8 17 2 1 2 79
Rob Ducey PHI .268 .222 .358 .478 5.84 13 16 20 6 1 0 109
Ricky Henderson SEA .252 .234 .341 .338 4.45 18 26 15 4 14 2 170
Craig Wilson CHW .245 .311 .354 .361 4.44 6 11 4 0 1 0 65
Glenallen Hill CHC .242 .246 .288 .486 4.55 15 20 23 9 0 1 146
Luis Sojo PIT .237 .272 .319 .420 4.44 17 13 20 5 0 0 182
Geronimo Berroa LAD .233 .258 .343 .323 3.80 3 2 5 0 0 0 35
Ricky Henderson NYM .233 .219 .387 .229 3.98 10 17 2 0 5 2 124
Miguel Cairo TAM .223 .264 .310 .326 3.57 20 24 19 0 15 3 245
Greg Myers BAL .217 .246 .292 .344 3.21 5 4 4 1 0 0 65
Dave Justice NYY .213 .154 .290 .308 3.01 2 4 3 1 0 0 31
Benito Santiago CIN .208 .233 .286 .357 3.16 10 9 17 3 0 2 140
Turner Ward ARZ .164 .173 .241 .250 1.70 2 5 4 0 1 1 58
Sandy Martinez FLA .068 .143 .143 .214 .18 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Adam Melhuse COL-.173 .000 .000 .000 -2.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Adam Melhuse LAD-.198 .000 .000 .000 -2.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
David Wells had a better first-half than Roger Clemens. Pat Hentgen had an
average first-half, much better than Roy Halladay. Lance Painter out-pitched
Paul Spoljaric:
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Robert Person PHI 5 2 3.17 3.27 3.74 88.0 .223 .216 .322 .337 7 9.2
Al Leiter NYM 10 2 2.99 3.37 3.97 120.3 .228 .233 .313 .378 13 8.4
Tod Stottlemyre ARZ 8 5 4.24 4.48 5.10 76.3 .253 .259 .328 .462 14 7.3
Roger Clemens NYY 6 6 4.33 5.46 4.90 95.7 .258 .256 .338 .422 13 8.5
Pat Hentgen STL 8 6 5.16 5.42 5.03 104.7 .260 .253 .336 .441 17 5.2
Dan Plesac ARZ 1 0 3.80 5.48 5.38 21.3 .261 .248 .366 .419 3 10.1
Woody Williams SDP 3 2 4.73 4.73 5.34 53.3 .267 .269 .325 .489 11 6.4
Tim Crabtree TEX 1 5 5.95 7.02 5.88 42.3 .269 .320 .373 .453 3 6.8
Carlos Almanzar SDP 1 3 5.27 5.48 5.10 42.7 .272 .248 .323 .469 9 7.8
Mike Timlin BAL 2 3 5.08 6.04 6.20 28.3 .275 .283 .372 .481 5 7.0
David Cone NYY 1 7 6.40 6.90 6.56 90.0 .289 .295 .377 .503 17 6.4
Paul Spoljaric KAN 0 0 6.75 6.75 9.06 2.7 .301 .344 .396 .672 1 6.8
Omar Daal ARZ 2 10 7.36 8.44 7.09 91.7 .305 .317 .390 .527 17 4.0
Juan Guzman TAM 0 1 43.20 43.20 31.53 1.7 .565 .595 .6541.221 2 16.2
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Steve Karsay CLE 1 5 3.54 3.76 4.13 40.7 .229 .260 .309 .401 4 8.0
David Weathers MIL 3 3 3.38 3.73 4.36 50.7 .236 .261 .330 .391 4 6.4
Jose Silva PIT 5 3 3.28 4.33 5.20 68.7 .245 .290 .341 .451 8 7.3
Willie Blair DET 5 2 4.50 4.86 4.67 74.0 .247 .267 .307 .453 12 4.5
Billy Taylor TAM 0 1 6.23 6.23 4.10 4.3 .256 .195 .287 .425 1 10.4
Mike Johnson MON 4 3 5.26 5.44 5.45 49.7 .268 .261 .361 .434 7 7.2
Jose Mesa SEA 2 5 5.83 5.83 6.14 41.7 .281 .287 .370 .480 7 10.6
Jim Mann NYM 0 0 10.13 10.13 12.91 2.7 .364 .441 .480 .766 1 .0
Giovann Carrara COL 0 0 18.00 18.00 15.85 2.0 .380 .413 .551 .810 1 9.0
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2000 American League Leaders at All-Star Break
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Carlos Delgado was the league's best hitter in the 1st-half. The only A.L.
EqA-leader not at the All-Star Game was Frank Thomas:
Top 14 Hitters by EqA (minimum 217 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Carlos Delgado TOR .355 .363 .476 .709 11.66 77 74 80 28 0 0 393
Edgar Martinez SEA .353 .354 .446 .667 10.36 69 61 87 23 0 0 341
Jason Giambi OAK .349 .334 .474 .624 10.64 71 61 78 22 2 0 378
Alex Rodriguez SEA .345 .345 .439 .639 9.81 75 84 78 24 8 3 380
Frank Thomas CHW .336 .333 .442 .644 9.82 70 66 75 26 0 2 385
Nom Garciaparra BOS .332 .389 .444 .643 10.03 50 47 55 12 2 2 286
Darin Erstad ANA .324 .384 .441 .592 9.20 72 69 66 17 17 5 413
Manny Ramirez CLE .323 .322 .419 .623 9.01 37 32 47 13 1 0 217
Jorge Posada NYY .323 .309 .447 .535 8.55 53 47 41 14 2 1 322
Magglio Ordonez CHW .323 .330 .407 .621 8.85 62 60 74 21 9 3 361
Ivan Rodriguez TEX .318 .363 .390 .705 9.29 61 60 80 26 4 5 349
Carl Everett BOS .316 .329 .403 .647 8.84 56 53 69 24 6 3 330
Bernie Williams NYY .315 .329 .396 .598 8.07 64 64 80 19 8 4 371
Troy Glaus ANA .312 .293 .407 .613 8.33 60 63 60 25 10 6 359
David Wells and Frank Castillo were among the league's best pitchers in the
1st-half:
Top 14 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 71.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Pedro Martinez BOS 9 3 1.44 1.61 1.91 106.0 .163 .170 .233 .283 9 11.9
David Wells TOR 15 2 3.44 3.86 4.28 128.3 .229 .283 .311 .414 10 7.0
Chuck Finley CLE 7 6 3.73 4.02 4.05 123.0 .231 .233 .322 .368 12 8.3
Rick Helling TEX 10 7 3.85 4.81 4.36 121.7 .234 .243 .332 .381 12 6.3
Makoto Suzuki KAN 4 3 3.59 4.06 4.56 95.3 .234 .242 .333 .399 12 7.6
Brad Radke MIN 5 10 4.28 4.56 4.19 132.3 .235 .261 .305 .413 15 5.4
Gil Meche SEA 4 4 3.78 3.89 3.93 85.7 .236 .234 .321 .358 7 6.3
Kenny Rogers TEX 9 6 4.23 4.58 4.65 127.7 .236 .277 .329 .417 12 4.6
Mike Mussina BAL 6 7 3.68 3.88 4.43 134.7 .237 .264 .305 .435 19 7.4
Frank Castillo TOR 6 5 4.17 4.44 4.44 99.3 .238 .232 .325 .399 14 6.9
Aaron Sele SEA 11 3 3.95 4.18 4.02 114.0 .240 .254 .319 .373 8 5.4
Tim Hudson OAK 10 2 4.27 4.51 4.25 109.7 .242 .221 .319 .390 16 8.1
Bartolo Colon CLE 9 5 4.28 4.28 4.68 88.3 .242 .247 .336 .404 11 10.9
Mike Sirotka CHW 8 6 3.73 4.86 4.57 103.7 .244 .267 .322 .421 12 5.7
Billy Koch was among the league's best relievers in the first-half:
Top 7 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Todd Jones DET 0 1 2.53 2.53 3.19 32.0 .202 .240 .282 .351 2 10.4
Derek Lowe BOS 2 3 2.82 2.82 3.19 51.0 .203 .232 .281 .352 4 7.8
Jeff Tam OAK 3 2 2.40 2.40 3.23 60.0 .203 .252 .298 .333 1 5.3
Mariano Rivera NYY 2 3 2.95 3.40 2.96 39.7 .213 .225 .284 .324 2 6.1
Jerry Spradlin KAN 3 2 3.40 3.74 3.46 53.0 .218 .221 .297 .351 5 7.3
Ja Isringhausen OAK 4 2 2.79 3.26 3.74 38.7 .220 .240 .320 .343 2 7.9
Billy Koch TOR 4 1 2.74 3.13 4.26 46.0 .220 .267 .317 .401 4 7.8
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Theory Stuff, 2000 All-Star Break
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The Jays allowed more runs than they scored in the 1st-half, but
over-achieved their Pythagorean record by 5 games to grab a share
of the division-lead:
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) SEA 53-33 .622 | ( 1) TOR 5
( 2) CHW 51-36 .586 | ( 2) CHW 4
( 3) BOS 47-37 .555 | ( 3) KAN 2
( 4) OAK 48-38 .555 | ( 4) DET 2
( 5) NYY 45-38 .542 | ( 5) ANA 2
( 6) CLE 46-40 .533 | ( 6) OAK 0
( 7) ANA 45-43 .513 | ( 7) BAL 0
( 8) TEX 42-43 .496 | ( 8) NYY 0
( 9) TOR 43-46 .481 | ( 9) TEX 0
(10) BAL 38-48 .442 | (10) MIN -1
(11) TAM 37-48 .434 | (11) CLE -2
(12) KAN 37-48 .434 | (12) SEA -2
(13) MIN 39-51 .429 | (13) TAM -3
(14) DET 36-48 .429 | (14) BOS -4
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
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National League, 2000 All-Star Break
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Runs Scored Per 9 IP Runs Allowed Per 9 IP Winning Percentage
( 1) Colorado 6.32 | ( 1) Arizona 4.60 | ( 1) Atlanta 52-36 .591
( 2)SanFrancisco 6.25 | ( 2) Atlanta 4.65 | ( 2) St. Louis 51-36 .586
( 3) St. Louis 5.96 | ( 3) Los Angeles 4.88 | ( 3) Arizona 51-37 .580
( 4) Houston 5.41 | ( 4) Florida 4.89 | ( 4) NYMets 48-38 .558
( 5) Los Angeles 5.35 | ( 5) NYMets 4.90 | ( 5)SanFrancisco 46-39 .541
( 6) NYMets 5.33 | ( 6) St. Louis 5.03 | ( 6) Colorado 45-40 .529
( 7) Atlanta 5.19 | ( 7)Philadelphia 5.04 | ( 7) Los Angeles 44-42 .512
( 8) Montreal 5.09 | ( 8) San Diego 5.23 | ( 8) Florida 45-43 .511
( 9) Cincinnati 5.03 | ( 9) Pittsburgh 5.23 | ( 9) Montreal 42-42 .500
(10) Arizona 5.02 | (10) Cincinnati 5.31 | (10) Cincinnati 43-44 .494
(11) San Diego 4.90 | (11) Milwaukee 5.33 | (11)Philadelphia 39-47 .453
(12) Cubs 4.89 | (12)SanFrancisco 5.49 | (12) Pittsburgh 38-48 .442
(13) Pittsburgh 4.75 | (13) Cubs 5.61 | (13) San Diego 38-49 .437
(14) Florida 4.58 | (14) Montreal 5.61 | (14) Milwaukee 37-51 .420
(15)Philadelphia 4.57 | (15) Colorado 5.76 | (15) Cubs 35-51 .407
(16) Milwaukee 4.48 | (16) Houston 6.01 | (16) Houston 30-57 .345
Avg 5.19 Avg 5.22 684-700
Team Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SFG STL LAD NYM SDP ATL MON HOU ARZ COL CIN CHC FLA PIT PHI MIL
.289 .273 .272 .266 .263 .262 .260 .259 .257 .255 .254 .253 .253 .248 .247 .246
Opponents' Equivalent Average:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
COL ARZ ATL STL PHI NYM PIT FLA CIN LAD MIL CHC SDP HOU MON SFG
.245 .248 .251 .255 .257 .257 .257 .259 .260 .262 .264 .267 .270 .270 .271 .275
Park Factors ((PF-1)*100, hitters' parks first):
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 12 13 14 14 16
COL HOU PIT CIN STL CHC PHI MIL ARZ ATL MON NYM FLA LAD SFG SDP
28.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 .5 .0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -5.5 -8.0 -8.0 -8.5
Pythagorean WPct Extra Wins
( 1) STL 50-37 .577 | ( 1) MON 4
( 2) SFG 48-37 .559 | ( 2) FLA 4
( 3) ATL 48-40 .550 | ( 3) ATL 4
( 4) COL 46-39 .542 | ( 4) ARZ 3
( 5) LAD 47-39 .542 | ( 5) NYM 2
( 6) ARZ 48-40 .540 | ( 6) CIN 2
( 7) NYM 46-40 .538 | ( 7) STL 1
( 8) CIN 41-46 .475 | ( 8) MIL 0
( 9) SDP 41-46 .471 | ( 9) PHI 0
(10) FLA 41-47 .470 | (10) COL -1
(11) PIT 39-47 .456 | (11) PIT -1
(12) PHI 39-47 .456 | (12) SFG -2
(13) MON 38-46 .455 | (13) LAD -3
(14) HOU 39-48 .453 | (14) CHC -3
(15) CHC 38-48 .437 | (15) SDP -3
(16) MIL 37-51 .421 | (16) HOU -9
Note: PythagWPct = RF^1.83 / ( RF^1.83 + RA^1.83 )
where RF=Runs For and RA=Runs Against
Top 16 Hitters by EqA (minimum 217 plate appearances):
EqA BA OBP SLG R27 EqR R RBI HR SB CS PA
Mark McGwire STL .356 .303 .483 .747 12.05 59 58 69 30 1 0 302
Barry Bonds SFG .352 .309 .436 .728 10.59 64 68 57 28 9 2 307
Jeff Kent SFG .344 .355 .436 .673 10.02 75 70 85 23 7 4 383
Gary Sheffield LAD .340 .334 .440 .652 9.70 70 64 71 27 1 3 368
Ellis Burks SFG .336 .363 .444 .606 9.49 41 36 40 10 5 1 225
Vladim Guerrero MON .334 .369 .433 .694 9.86 68 58 76 23 6 8 353
Jim Edmonds STL .333 .341 .452 .655 10.21 63 81 59 25 6 2 356
Mike Piazza NYM .332 .348 .414 .693 9.70 56 53 72 24 3 0 295
Ryan Klesko SDP .325 .316 .405 .625 8.66 54 51 56 19 11 2 294
Todd Helton COL .320 .383 .479 .701 11.62 55 83 70 21 2 2 361
Jose Vidro MON .320 .375 .414 .615 8.84 60 64 62 15 5 2 355
Chipper Jones ATL .316 .320 .416 .607 8.62 60 59 68 22 6 3 361
Moises Alou HOU .316 .359 .420 .657 9.24 37 34 48 15 2 3 224
Brian_s Giles PIT .314 .317 .423 .611 8.92 61 59 72 21 5 0 383
Luis Castillo FLA .308 .369 .468 .446 7.79 48 61 4 1 36 16 308
Bob Abreu PHI .306 .327 .427 .539 8.12 55 56 42 10 13 3 361
Top 16 Starting Pitchers by EqA (minimum 71.3 innings pitched):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Randy Johnson ARZ 14 2 1.80 2.12 2.39 144.7 .186 .191 .250 .314 13 12.3
Kevin Brown LAD 8 2 2.38 2.59 2.81 125.0 .207 .205 .257 .348 14 8.1
Kris Benson PIT 8 6 3.05 3.54 3.76 129.7 .222 .231 .305 .370 13 7.2
Robert Person PHI 5 2 3.17 3.27 3.74 88.0 .223 .216 .322 .337 7 9.2
Al Leiter NYM 10 2 2.99 3.37 3.97 120.3 .228 .233 .313 .378 13 8.4
Jon Lieber CHC 8 5 3.63 4.01 3.66 143.7 .230 .238 .286 .392 17 6.7
Greg Maddux ATL 10 3 3.32 3.73 3.76 132.7 .230 .252 .296 .387 12 7.3
Tom Glavine ATL 9 5 3.61 3.75 3.77 132.0 .231 .236 .300 .380 14 6.5
Carl Pavano MON 8 4 3.06 3.71 4.05 97.0 .232 .244 .322 .372 8 5.9
Randy Wolf PHI 8 5 3.68 3.91 4.13 115.0 .235 .241 .307 .404 15 7.0
Denny Neagle CIN 8 2 3.52 3.67 4.57 117.7 .236 .249 .329 .411 15 6.7
Mike Hampton NYM 9 5 3.36 3.95 4.30 120.7 .239 .247 .346 .353 6 6.1
Pedro Astacio COL 7 5 4.87 5.09 5.92 122.0 .242 .278 .354 .493 24 8.8
Rick Ankiel STL 6 4 3.74 4.53 4.51 91.3 .243 .224 .333 .393 13 9.2
Masato Yoshii COL 4 9 5.55 5.64 5.52 99.0 .243 .295 .344 .474 14 5.1
Ryan Dempster FLA 9 5 3.65 4.01 4.41 123.3 .244 .245 .321 .408 16 8.8
Top 8 Relievers by EqA (minimum 50 innings or 10 saves):
W L ERA RA R27 IP EqA BA OBP SLG HR K/9
Hyun Kim ARZ 2 3 2.11 2.53 2.24 42.7 .190 .159 .257 .279 4 15.0
Jose Jimenez COL 4 0 3.09 3.09 3.90 35.0 .202 .254 .330 .347 1 5.7
Danny Graves CIN 9 1 1.99 2.65 3.36 54.3 .205 .209 .315 .310 3 5.3
Steve Kline MON 1 2 2.10 2.28 3.47 51.3 .207 .231 .298 .354 4 7.4
Mike Williams PIT 2 1 2.15 2.87 3.61 37.7 .210 .213 .305 .353 4 9.3
Ricky Bones FLA 2 2 1.61 2.32 3.69 50.3 .211 .243 .312 .355 3 6.6
Robb Nen SFG 3 3 2.10 3.15 2.84 34.3 .211 .190 .280 .312 3 11.0
Dave Veres STL 1 2 3.05 3.05 3.59 44.3 .217 .231 .300 .363 4 8.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Glossary
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---AL---
General:
Equivalent Average (EqA): corrects runs per 9 innings for park factor and
rescales so that .260 is average and .300 represents excellence every year:
EqA = ( (( R9 / PF ) / AvgR9) ^ 0.4 ) * .260
where R9 = Runs per 9 innings (defined differently in each section below)
PF = Park Factor (see explanation in Team section below)
AvgR9 = Average Runs per 9 innings in Year (see each section below)
^ 0.4 makes distribution much like batting average's
Note: Equivalent Average was invented by Clay Davenport as a 'hitter' stat.
My application of EqA to 'teams' and 'pitchers' may differ from what
he would do, and my formulas and park factors for 'hitters' differ,
but my resulting hitter EqAs are very similar in practice.
Estimated Runs Produced: ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623*(AB-H+CS)),
invented by Paul Johnson, more accurate than Bill James' runs created,
background info available at http://www.stephent.com/jays/erp.html
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .987 in 2000
ERPDisplay: ERP * ERPAdj -- this report's ERP columns are actually ERPDisplay
Age: as of July 1, 2000
Team Stats Glossary:
Runs Scored Per 9 IP: runs scored per 9 innings pitched by the team, not
against the team (the latter would be preferable but is harder to find).
For example, the Jays scored 502 runs, allowed 523 runs,
and pitched 788.3 innings, from which the listed numbers were calculated.
Team Equivalent Average: in EqA formula above, R9 is team's runs scored per
9 IP, and AvgR9 is league average runs per 9 IP (5.45 in 2000)
Opponents' Equivalent Average: R9 is team's runs allowed per 9 IP
Park Factor (PF): divisor which corrects run totals for park effect;
Note: To not repeat 1.0 and 0.9 prefixes excessively, the listed numbers are
(PF-1)*100. For example, the park factor of 1.054 would be listed as 5.4.
To get the park factor (PF) from the listed number, divide it by 100 and add 1.
Hitting Stats Glossary:
Group1: hitters with 9 most plate appearances (more if tie for 9th in PA)
Group2: remaining hitters
L/R/S: bats Left, Right, or Switch
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.45 / 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2000 American League average, 1.04 accounts for DH rule)
BA: Batting Average, (H/AB), inaccurate measure of batting ability (ignores
power, walks, stealing, park factor, league average), use EqA instead
OBP: On-Base Percentage, (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2000, 25.8*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.45
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
EqR: Equivalent Runs, park-adjusted Estimated Runs Produced scaled so that
100 represents excellence every year, EqR=(ERPAdj*ERP/PF)*(4.50/AvgR9),
AvgR9 same as in hitter EqA, results similar to Clay Davenport's
R: Runs Scored
RBI: Runs Batted In, inaccurate measure of run production, use EqR instead
D: Doubles, T: Triples, HR: Home Runs, AB: At Bats, BB: Walks
SB: Stolen Bases, CS: Caught Stealing, HBP: Hit By Pitch
PA: Plate Appearances (AB+BB+HBP+SF)
Pitching Stats Glossary:
Starting Pitcher = at least one-third of appearances were starts
Group1: starting pitchers with 5 most starts
Group2: remaining starters
Group3: relief pitchers with 5 most relief appearances
Group4: remaining relievers
W: Wins, L: Losses, L/R: Left-hander or Right-hander
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP), ER = Earned Runs allowed
RA: Run Average (9*R/IP), R = total Runs allowed
R27: ERP per 27 outs (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
R27Display: R27 * ERPAdj -- this report's R27 columns are actually R27Display
IP: Innings Pitched
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.09*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.987*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = American League average runs per 9 IP (5.45 in 2000),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
BA: Batting Average against pitcher, AB estimated as per below
OBP: On-Base Percentage against pitcher (estimated as (H+BB+HB)/(AB+BB+HB))
SLG: Slugging Average against pitcher (uses below estimates of D and T)
HR: Home Runs allowed, H: Hits allowed, BB: walks, HB: Hit Batters
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.8/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2000 AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .10*D in 2000
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .055*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2000
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .48*SB in 2000
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
---NL---
General:
ERPAdj: ratio of league's Runs to ERP, always close to 1.0, .983 in 2000
Hitting Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average, in formula above, R9 = R27 * ERPAdj (R27 defined below,
ERPAdj defined above), AvgR9 = 5.20 * 1.04 (estimate of Major League
average from 2000 National League average, 1.04 accounts for no DH rule)
R27: estimate of how many runs a lineup of that player would score in a game,
i.e. ERP per 27 outs, in 2000, 25.6*ERP/(AB-H+CS), average roughly 5.20
Pitching Stats Glossary:
EqA: Equivalent Average against pitcher, based on ERA, RA and R27:
in EqA formula, let R9 = (1.10*ERA)/6 + (RA)/3 + (.983*R27)/2
and AvgR9 = National League average runs per 9 IP (5.20 in 2000),
not as accurate a stat as hitter EqA, but better than just ERA
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
AB: At Bats, estimated as 3*IP*(25.6/27)+H-CS, CS estimated as below
D: Doubles, estimated as .23*(H-HR) (based on 2000 NL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .11*D in 2000
SB: Stolen Bases, estimated as .064*(H+BB+HB-D-T-HR) in 2000
CS: Caught Stealing, estimated as .47*SB in 2000
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+2HB+SB-0.623(AB-H+CS))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most raw data is from Doug Steele's web site, http://shell.rmi.net/~doug/
and is unofficial.
Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs are in the same spirit as described by
Clay Davenport in Baseball Prospectus 1997 Edition,
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Estimated Runs Produced is described by Paul Johnson in the The Bill James
Baseball Abstract 1985.
I cannot guarantee that no errors were made in processing or presenting this
information.
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:stephent@ottawa.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 2000 July 12
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.