"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesThis article was mailed to the Blue Jays' mailing list Jan 30, 1997.
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 1997 00:07:22 -0500 From: Stephen Tomlinson To: jays@hivnet.ubc.ca Subject: Pitching Stats, '96 Jays and Former Jays
Here are the Jays' 1996 pitching stats, sorted by Innings Pitched. TRA is Total Runs Allowed per 9 innings, including allegedly "unearned" runs, and RPG is from applying the Estimated Runs Produced formula on the pitcher stats, which sometimes suggests a pitcher was lucky or unlucky. But there were no really deceptive ERAs on the Jays last year:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
PHentgen 27 TOR 20 10 3.22 3.56 3.68 265.2 .241 20 3.2 6.0 7.6 2.3
EHanson 31 TOR 13 17 5.41 6.00 5.59 214.2 .286 26 4.3 6.5 6.1 2.3
JGuzman 29 TOR 11 8 2.93 3.26 3.45 187.2 .230 20 2.5 7.9 7.0 2.2
PQuantrill 27 TOR 5 14 5.43 6.03 6.70 134.1 .312 27 3.4 5.8 3.5 .8
MJanzen 23 TOR 4 6 7.33 7.94 7.27 73.2 .314 16 4.6 5.7 4.9 .1
TCastillo 33 TOR 2 3 4.23 4.73 4.35 72.1 .261 9 2.5 6.0 1.8 .7
HFlener 27 TOR 3 2 4.58 5.09 4.76 70.2 .254 9 4.2 5.6 4.7 .1
TCrabtree 26 TOR 5 3 2.54 3.48 3.38 67.1 .237 4 2.9 7.6 1.3 .1
WWilliams 29 TOR 4 5 4.73 5.03 5.12 59.0 .278 8 3.2 6.6 4.9 .2
MTimlin 30 TOR 1 6 3.65 3.97 3.21 56.2 .227 4 2.9 8.3 1.0 .6
BRisley 29 TOR 0 1 3.89 4.32 4.60 41.2 .219 7 5.4 6.3 1.7 .2
SBrow 27 TOR 1 0 5.59 5.82 6.31 38.2 .292 5 5.8 5.4 2.1 .1
PSpoljaric 25 TOR 2 2 3.08 4.03 4.22 38.0 .219 6 4.5 9.0 1.4 .1
JWare 25 TOR 1 5 9.09 9.37 7.14 32.2 .275 6 8.5 3.0 2.5 .1
FViola 36 TOR 1 3 7.71 8.31 8.27 30.1 .335 6 6.2 5.3 5.1 .1
BBohanon 27 TOR 0 1 7.77 7.77 7.68 22.0 .303 4 7.8 7.0 1.1 .2
GCarrara 28 TOR 0 1 11.40 11.40 10.24 15.0 .352 5 7.2 6.0 1.4 .1
LAndujar 23 TOR 1 1 5.02 5.02 4.88 14.1 .257 4 .6 3.1 4.8 .1
DJohnson 33 TOR 0 0 3.00 3.00 1.94 9.0 .165 0 5.0 7.0 .9 .1
JSilva 22 TOR 0 0 13.50 13.50 14.16 2.0 .470 1 .0 .0 1.0 .1
TOTAL 96 TOR 74 88 4.57 5.04 4.94 1445.2 .266 187 3.8 6.4 3.1 1.1
Of the new guys, I was surprised that Plesac struck out hitters more often than Clemens, and his stats against (hits, walks, home runs) suggest he actually pitched better than his ERA. Of course you should add 15% to National League ERAs to correct for the change in leagues (but I didn't):
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
RClemens 33 BOS 10 13 3.63 3.93 3.90 242.2 .239 19 3.9 9.5 7.1 5.5
RPerson 26 NYM 4 5 4.52 5.02 4.92 89.2 .254 16 3.5 7.6 3.3 .1
DPlesac 34 PIT 6 5 4.09 4.48 3.79 70.1 .253 4 3.1 9.7 1.0 .9
The famous former Jay starters all pitched well when healthy:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
DWells 33 BAL 11 14 5.14 5.30 4.89 224.1 .281 32 2.0 5.2 6.6 3.0
TStottlemy 31 STL 14 11 3.87 4.03 4.12 223.1 .233 30 3.7 7.8 6.6 3.8
ALeiter 30 FLA 16 12 2.93 3.09 3.23 215.1 .201 14 5.0 8.4 6.5 2.7
JKey 35 NYY 12 11 4.68 4.94 4.61 169.1 .264 21 3.1 6.2 5.6 1.8
DCone 33 NYY 7 2 2.88 3.13 2.74 72.0 .198 3 4.3 8.9 6.5 4.7
So far, the Jays appear to have "won" the Risley/Cairo deal:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
EHurtado 26 SEA 2 5 7.74 7.93 7.49 47.2 .312 10 5.7 6.8 3.0 .1
PMenhart 27 SEA 2 2 7.29 7.71 7.58 42.0 .317 9 5.4 3.9 3.8 .1
The M's should have gone after a former Jay leftie reliever instead:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
GLloyd 29 MIL 2 4 2.82 3.35 3.83 51.0 .254 3 3.0 4.2 1.0 .2
GLloyd 29 NYY 0 2 17.47 17.47 12.21 5.2 .429 1 7.9 9.5 .4 .2
TCastillo 33 CHW 3 1 1.59 2.78 3.53 22.2 .265 1 1.6 3.6 1.5 .7
BMacDonald 31 NYM 0 2 4.26 4.74 3.99 19.0 .230 2 4.3 5.7 1.0 .2
Here are the rest of the former Jays, I think. The Jays experimented with Darwin in the wrong year. Weathers seemed a lot better in post- season than he did in regular-season:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
DDarwin 40 PIT 7 9 3.02 3.53 3.34 122.1 .253 9 1.2 5.1 6.4 .3
DDarwin 40 HOU 3 2 5.95 6.59 4.73 42.1 .265 7 2.3 5.5 2.8 .3
TCandiotti 38 LOS 9 11 4.49 5.38 5.00 152.1 .286 18 2.5 4.7 5.4 3.0
DLinton 30 KAN 7 9 5.02 5.63 4.65 104.0 .275 13 2.3 7.5 5.0 .1
DWeathers 26 FLA 2 2 4.54 5.17 5.48 71.1 .297 7 3.5 5.0 2.3 .2
DWeathers 26 NYY 0 2 9.35 9.87 7.04 17.1 .320 1 7.3 6.8 1.6 .2
WBlair 30 SDP 2 6 4.60 5.32 4.25 88.0 .244 13 3.0 6.9 1.5 .6
XHernandez 30 HOU 5 5 4.22 4.70 4.38 74.2 .247 11 3.1 9.4 1.3 .6
XHernandez 30 CIN 0 0 13.50 16.20 16.17 3.1 .460 2 5.4 8.1 1.1 .6
MEichhorn 35 CAL 1 2 5.04 5.04 5.37 30.1 .296 3 3.3 7.1 1.3 .2
ASmall 24 OAK 1 3 8.16 8.79 7.11 28.2 .314 3 6.9 5.3 2.4 .1
LAndujar 23 CHW 0 2 8.22 8.61 7.84 23.0 .330 4 5.9 2.3 4.6 .1
GCarrara 28 CIN 1 0 5.87 6.65 8.05 23.0 .323 6 5.1 5.1 2.9 .1
DHall 31 LOS 0 2 6.00 6.75 5.54 12.0 .278 2 3.8 9.0 1.3 .2
KRobinson 26 KAN 1 0 6.00 6.00 6.58 6.0 .347 0 4.5 7.5 1.2 .1
For fun, I checked out the NL Cy Young award race. I guess Brown missed a few starts because he stayed in games slightly longer than Smoltz:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
JSmoltz 29 ATL 24 8 2.94 3.30 2.72 253.2 .218 19 2.0 9.8 7.2 5.5
GMaddux 30 ATL 15 11 2.72 3.12 2.87 245.0 .246 11 1.0 6.3 7.0 6.5
KBrown 31 FLA 17 11 1.89 2.32 2.28 233.0 .222 8 1.3 6.1 7.3 3.3
Hentgen was clearly the best pitcher in the AL last year. Pettitte was just 10th on the Support-Neutral Won/Loss report. Can't resist pointing out that Appier's arm didn't fall off despite some doom and gloom predictions:
Age W L ERA TRA RPG IP BA HR BB/9 K/9 I/G $m
PHentgen 27 TOR 20 10 3.22 3.56 3.68 265.2 .241 20 3.2 6.0 7.6 2.3
AFernandez 26 CHW 16 10 3.45 3.84 4.25 258.0 .254 34 2.5 7.0 7.4 4.5
KHill 30 TEX 16 10 3.63 3.95 4.28 250.2 .261 19 3.4 6.1 7.2 3.0
RClemens 33 BOS 10 13 3.63 3.93 3.90 242.2 .239 19 3.9 9.5 7.1 5.5
APettitte 24 NYY 21 8 3.87 4.28 4.54 221.0 .269 23 2.9 6.6 6.3 .2
KAppier 28 KAN 14 11 3.62 3.71 3.79 211.1 .244 17 3.2 8.8 6.6 5.1
JGuzman 29 TOR 11 8 2.93 3.26 3.45 187.2 .230 20 2.5 7.9 7.0 2.2
Glossary:
Age: as of July 1, 1996, from STATS Major League Handbook
W: Wins, L: Losses,
ERA: Earned Run Average (9*ER/IP)
TRA: Total Run Average (9*R/IP)
RPG: Runs Per Game (9*ERP/IP, ERP estimated as below)
IP: Innings Pitched
BA: Batting Average against pitcher (H/AB, AB estimated as below)
HR: Home Runs allowed
BB/9: Walks per 9 innings (9*BB/IP)
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (9*K/IP)
I/G: Innings pitched per game (IP/G)
$m: Salary in $Millions (I guessed .1 for players not in my pre-season list)
H: Hits allowed
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced against pitcher, estimated as follows:
D: Doubles, estimated as .219*(H-HR) (based on AL average)
T: Triples, estimated as .0219*(H-HR) (based on AL average)
AB: At Bats against pitcher, estimated as .940*3*IP+H
SB: Stolen Bases, guessed 0; CS: Caught Stealing, guessed 0
ERP = 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.61(AB-H+CS))
Notes:
No park or league adjustments were made.
Data is taken from http://rainbow.rmii.com/~doug
(unofficial data, but looks pretty accurate, and does not add together
stats from different teams, so Jays stats are as Jays only, which is
what I wanted).
Coming up:
Tomorrow (I hope): Jays '97 projected record
--
Stephen Tomlinson Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1997 Mar 31
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.