"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesThis article was mailed to the Blue Jays' mailing list Jan 29, 1997.
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 1997 00:49:07 -0500 From: Stephen Tomlinson To: jays@hivnet.ubc.ca Subject: Processed '96 Jays (and former Jays) Hitting Stats
Here are the Jays' hitting stats for 1996, processed the way I like them. While Carter had the most impressive traditional stat (107 RBI), Sprague's stats suggest he actually produced the most runs (93 Estimated Runs Produced, formula at bottom). To correct for different amounts of playing time, divide ERP by the number of outs and scale it on a per game basis (Runs Per Game). By this measure, Olerud was the Jays' best hitter (6.19 RPG, though admittedly he didn't play much against lefties), and Delgado and Sprague were the only other Jays above average (the American League average was 5.39 Runs Per Game):
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
Sprague 28 3B .247 .316 .496 5.43 93 88 101 591 60 0 36 651 1.5
Carter 36 LF .253 .302 .475 4.91 89 84 107 625 44 7 30 669 6.5
Delgado 24 DH .270 .348 .490 5.95 81 68 92 488 58 0 25 546 .2
Nixon 37 CF .286 .376 .327 4.97 70 87 29 496 71 54 1 567 1.9
Olerud 27 1B .274 .369 .472 6.19 69 59 61 398 60 1 18 458 6.5
Gonzalez 23 SS .235 .295 .391 3.99 63 64 64 527 45 16 14 572 .2
Green 23 RF .280 .332 .448 5.20 61 52 45 422 33 5 11 455 .3
Brumfield 31 CF .256 .310 .448 4.90 44 52 52 308 24 12 12 332 .4
O'Brien 35 C .238 .300 .410 4.19 40 33 44 324 29 0 13 353 .5
Cedeno 27 2B .280 .316 .351 3.76 30 44 17 282 15 5 2 297 .2
TPerez 22 2B .251 .309 .332 3.45 30 24 19 295 25 1 1 320 .1
Samuel 35 DH .255 .310 .457 5.10 28 34 26 188 15 9 8 203 .3
RPerez 27 LF .327 .352 .406 5.08 27 30 21 202 8 3 2 210 .1
Martinez 23 C .227 .278 .332 3.01 20 17 18 229 16 0 3 245 .2
Brito 24 2B .238 .322 .363 4.04 10 10 7 80 10 1 1 90 .1
Crespo 23 2B .184 .344 .265 3.70 6 6 4 49 12 1 0 61 .1
Cairo 22 2B .222 .276 .296 2.61 2 5 1 27 2 0 0 29 .1
Mosquera 24 C .227 .227 .318 1.85 1 2 2 22 0 0 0 22 .1
Stewart 22 CF .176 .222 .235 1.62 1 2 2 17 1 1 0 18 .1
Huff 32 CF .172 .200 .241 1.10 1 5 0 29 1 0 0 30 .1
TOTAL 96 .259 .323 .420 4.75 765 766 712 5599 529 116 177 6128 1.1
Just in case Carter's and Sprague's stats impress you, here are some of the best hitters of 1996. Most of these guys had more RBI than Carter, and all of them scored more Runs, which is just as important:
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
BBonds 31 SFG LF .308 .464 .615 10.42 146 122 129 517 151 40 42 668 8.4
EBurks 31 COL LF .344 .404 .639 9.18 144 142 128 613 61 32 40 674 3.3
ABelle 29 CLE LF .311 .408 .623 8.95 143 124 148 602 99 11 48 701 5.5
GSheffield 27 FLA RF .314 .461 .624 10.12 142 118 120 519 142 16 42 661 6.1
JBagwell 28 HOU 1B .315 .447 .570 9.21 140 111 120 568 135 21 31 703 4.9
MVaughn 28 BOS 1B .324 .412 .581 8.48 140 118 143 635 95 2 44 730 5.4
ARodriguez 20 SEA SS .358 .415 .631 9.26 139 141 123 601 59 15 36 660 .4
FThomas 28 CHW 1B .349 .461 .626 10.32 137 110 134 527 109 1 40 636 7.2
BAnderson 32 BAL CF .298 .380 .638 8.35 133 117 110 580 76 21 50 656 3.6
JThome 25 CLE 3B .311 .446 .612 9.62 130 122 116 505 123 2 38 628 1.6
MMcGwire 32 OAK 1B .312 .460 .730 11.50 129 104 113 423 116 0 52 539 7.0
EMartinez 33 SEA DH .327 .460 .595 9.81 128 121 103 499 123 3 26 622 3.5
KCaminiti 33 SDP 3B .326 .410 .621 8.87 127 109 130 546 78 11 40 624 3.1
CKnoblauch 27 MIN 2B .341 .436 .517 8.37 127 140 72 578 98 45 13 676 4.7
KGriffey 26 SEA CF .303 .390 .628 8.61 126 125 140 545 78 16 49 623 7.5
AGalarraga 35 COL 1B .304 .345 .601 7.21 123 119 150 626 40 18 47 666 4.5
CJones 24 ATL 3B .309 .397 .530 7.58 121 114 110 598 87 14 30 685 .8
BGilkey 29 NYM LF .317 .394 .562 7.74 119 108 117 571 73 17 30 644 2.8
MPiazza 27 LOS C .336 .422 .563 8.40 118 87 105 547 81 0 36 628 2.7
BLarkin 32 CIN SS .298 .408 .567 8.26 118 117 89 517 96 36 33 613 5.6
A couple of the new Jays had above-average years last year, but did not approach the superstars:
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
BSantiago 31 PHI C .264 .332 .503 5.82 79 71 85 481 49 2 30 530 1.1
OMerced 29 PIT RF .287 .359 .457 5.78 73 69 80 453 51 8 17 504 2.7
CGarcia 28 PIT 2B .285 .324 .397 4.51 49 66 44 390 23 16 6 413 1.4
JBrito 30 COL C .071 .133 .071 -0.93 0 1 0 14 1 0 0 15 .1
The famous 3 who left (or weren't invited back, in Molitor's case) all hit better than their Jays' counterpart:
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
RAlomar 28 BAL 2B .328 .417 .527 7.94 122 132 94 588 90 17 22 678 4.3
PMolitor 39 MIN DH .341 .392 .468 6.64 113 99 113 660 56 18 9 716 2.0
DWhite 33 FLA CF .274 .320 .455 5.14 80 77 84 552 38 22 17 590 3.0
Some "prospects" the Jays traded or let get away are doing well now (especially financially), though none are superstars:
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
GBerroa 31 OAK DH .290 .343 .532 6.28 101 101 106 586 47 0 36 633 1.2
DBell 27 HOU RF .263 .307 .418 4.60 82 84 113 627 40 29 17 667 2.6
MWhiten 29 PHI RF .236 .353 .396 5.26 29 33 21 182 33 13 7 215 .8
MWhiten 29 ATL LF .256 .368 .433 5.26 15 12 17 90 16 2 3 106 .8
MWhiten 29 SEA RF .300 .391 .607 8.22 31 31 33 140 21 2 12 161 .8
GHill 31 SFG RF .280 .337 .499 5.84 62 56 67 379 33 6 19 412 1.7
JKent 28 NYM 3B .290 .331 .436 4.97 46 45 39 335 21 4 9 356 2.0
JKent 28 CLE 3B .265 .330 .422 4.85 14 16 16 102 10 2 3 112 2.0
Among catchers, Myers outhit O'Brien this year; Borders and Knorr did not:
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
GMyers 30 MIN C .286 .325 .426 4.76 43 37 47 329 19 0 6 348 .5
PBorders 33 STL C .319 .329 .362 3.88 7 3 4 69 1 0 0 70 .4
PBorders 33 CAL C .228 .267 .386 3.29 6 6 8 57 3 0 2 60 .4
PBorders 33 CHW C .277 .313 .383 4.07 11 6 6 94 5 0 3 99 .4
RKnorr 27 HOU C .195 .239 .287 1.97 5 7 7 87 5 0 1 92 .1
Here are the rest of the former Jays (well, no guarantees I haven't forgotten some, or that my memory hasn't played tricks and added some!):
Age BA OBP SLG RPG ERP RUN RBI AB BB SB HR PA $m
FMcGriff 32 ATL 1B .295 .365 .494 6.34 107 81 107 617 68 7 28 685 4.8
CFielder 32 DET 1B .248 .352 .478 5.94 67 55 80 391 63 2 26 454 9.2
CFielder 32 NYY DH .260 .339 .495 5.84 33 30 37 200 24 0 13 224 9.2
RHenderson 37 SDP LF .241 .402 .344 5.59 79 110 29 465 125 37 9 590 2.0
NLiriano 32 PIT 2B .267 .312 .392 4.21 26 23 30 217 14 2 3 231 .3
PMunoz 27 OAK DH .256 .308 .446 4.72 16 17 18 121 9 0 6 130 .6
LSojo 30 SEA 2B .211 .241 .263 1.77 13 20 16 247 10 2 1 257 .6
LSojo 30 NYY 2B .275 .293 .325 3.06 3 3 5 40 1 0 0 41 .6
JBrumfield 31 PIT CF .250 .294 .438 4.49 11 11 8 80 5 3 2 85 .4
CStynes 23 KAN LF .293 .309 .359 3.80 10 8 6 92 2 5 0 94 .1
RGonzales 34 TEX 1B .217 .294 .326 3.24 9 19 5 92 10 0 2 102 .1
TWard 31 MIL RF .179 .313 .328 3.89 8 7 10 67 13 3 2 80 .4
NWilson 26 CLE DH .250 .308 .750 8.09 3 2 5 12 1 0 2 13 .1
RThompson 28 CLE CF .318 .348 .455 5.51 3 2 5 22 1 0 1 23 .3
DSchofield 33 CAL SS .250 .294 .250 2.66 1 3 0 16 1 1 0 17 .3
DCedeno 27 CHW 2B .167 .167 .278 1.35 1 2 3 18 0 1 0 18 .2
TFernandez 34 NYY DL .000 .000 .000 .00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5
Glossary:
Age: as of July 1, 1996, from STATS Major League Handbook
BA: Batting Average (H/AB)
OBP: On-Base Percentage, estimated as (H+BB)/(AB+BB)
SLG: Slugging Average, (H+D+2T+3HR)/AB
ERP: Estimated Runs Produced, 0.16*(3H+2D+4T+6HR+2BB+SB-0.61(AB-H+CS)),
developed by Paul Johnson and published in 1985 Bill James Abstract,
same scale as Runs and RBI
RPG: Runs Per Game (26.0*ERP/(AB-H+CS)), estimate of how many runs a lineup
of that player would score in a game, AL avg 5.39
AB: At Bats, BB: Walks, SB: Stolen Bases, HR: Home Runs,
PA: Plate Appearances (estimated as AB+BB)
$m: Salary in $Millions (I guessed .1 for players not in my pre-season list)
H: Hits, D: Doubles, T: Triples, CS: Caught Stealing.
Notes:
No park adjustments were made, not even to the Rockies.
The "superstar" list is taken from the players in STATS 'Runs Created' or
'Offensive Winning Percentage' leaders in each league.
Data is taken from http://rainbow.rmi.net/~doug/MLB.html
(unofficial data, but looks pretty accurate, and does not add together
stats from different teams, so Jays stats are as Jays only, which is
what I wanted).
Coming up:
Tomorrow (I hope): processed pitching stats for present and former Jays
And a day after that: Jays '97 projected record
(The numbers are crunched for both of these, just want to space the
articles out.)
--
Stephen Tomlinson Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1997 Mar 31
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.