"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill JamesThis article was mailed to a Blue Jays mailing list Nov 16, 1997, two days before the 1997 Expansion Draft.
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40-man roster as of Sept 1/97
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I think everyone on the 40-man roster is eligible to be drafted.
I think the Jays' 40-man roster was as follows as of Sept 1/97
(this took some piecing together -- one of the last pieces was finding a
report that Huck Flener was "designated for assignment" July 30,
which I think means he was removed from the 40-man roster and other teams
could have claimed him, though none did):
SP: Roger Clemens, Pat Hentgen, Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams
SP: Omar Daal, Kelvim Escobar, Juan Guzman, Joe Young
SP: Marty Janzen, Luis Andujar, Robert Person
RP: Paul Quantrill, Dan Plesac, Carlos Almanzar, Ken Robinson, Tim Crabtree
OF: Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr., Shawn Green, Rich Butler
OF: Anthony Sanders, Orlando Merced, Robert Perez, Joe Carter, Jacob Brumfield
1B: Carlos Delgado, Ryan Jones
2B: Jeff Patzke, Carlos Garcia, Mariano Duncan
SS: Alex Gonzalez, Tomas Perez
3B: Tom Evans, Felipe Crespo, Juan Samuel, Ed Sprague
C: Benito Santiago, Charlie O'Brien, Julio Mosquera, Sandy Martinez
60-day disabled list: Erik Hanson, Bill Risley
There are 42 names, I think because players on the 60-day disabled list
don't count. Both Hanson and Risley came off the 60-day DL in September,
and Luis Andujar went onto the 60-day DL. I can't find any report
of another Jay going on the 60-day DL to keep the roster in balance,
but there were lots of candidates (e.g. Merced) and maybe the rules
are relaxed at the end of the year (once there are fewer than 15 days
left, moving someone from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL would be
irrelevant to a team).
Some of the above are no longer with the club: Joe Carter, Orlando Merced,
Charlie O'Brien, Juan Samuel, Mariano Duncan and Jacob Brumfield. I'm not
sure about Carlos Garcia or Bill Risley.
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Who else is eligible?
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There are some other players in the organization who I think meet the
eligibility requirements and might possibly be picked, though other teams
have had a chance to claim them before. I think the most notable are
Huck Flener 28, Lorenzo DeLaCruz 25, Mark Lukasiewicz 23, Mark Sievert 24,
Angel Ramirez 24, Derek Brandow 27, Selwyn Langaigne 21 1B, and
Jim Czajkowski 32. I actually don't know for sure if any of these players
are still officially part of the organization.
The only players who aren't eligible to be drafted are those who
(1) have never played in the majors, and
(2a) have served less than three years in the minors, or
(2b) if signed at age 18 or younger, have served less than four years
Hence I think the following players are not eligible to be drafted:
Kevin Witt 21 5.3, Roy Halladay 20, Vernon Wells 18, Billy Koch,
Blaine Fortin C, Bobby Cripps 20 C, Andy Thompson 21 3B, Mike Whitlock 20 1B,
Ben Candelaria 21, Luis Lopez 24 1B, Diegomar Markwell 16 LHP.
On Kevin Witt, lots of the proposed lists in the media show Witt as protected,
but it was reported earlier this year that the reason the Jays didn't call up
Halladay and Witt in September was to ensure they would not have to
protect them. Witt has played at least 3 years in the minors. But I presume
he was signed at age 18 and hence needs 4 years service to be eligible. Witt
was the Jays' first-round pick in the June'94 draft, when I'm pretty sure he
was 18, though I don't recall when he signed.
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General philosophy
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Some general philosophy on who to protect:
(1) Protect younger players who could provide the team with a lot of good
years at a reasonable price. e.g. It's a good thing that Pat Hentgen was
protected in 1992. A player's prime years are ages 25-29.
(2) It still makes sense to keep the good older players not just for the
sake of 1998, but because if we fall out of the race next year, they
can probably be traded for decent prospects. (Don't expect to steal
a Cruz every year, but deals like Cripps for Nixon are reasonable.)
(3) It may make more sense to protect an older player who might be spectacular
than one who would just be above-average. e.g. A healthy Juan Guzman is
much more valuable than a healthy Erik Hanson, so I'd favor Guzman even
though Hanson may seem more likely to be healthy.
(4) Don't worry about keeping someone at each position. Even though I've
been grouping players by position for readability, the best players
overall should be protected, and if that leaves you with a deficit in
one area, you can probably get a better player by trading from your
surplus than by keeping the best candidate in your organization.
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The List
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Note: In the proposed protected list below,
the first number after a player's name is his age in 1997,
and the second number (for hitters) is his R27 in 1997 adjusted
to major league competition (I used 18% for Syracuse and 30% for
Knoxville stats). An average major league hitter has an R27 of 5
(an average catcher or middle infielder would be a 4,
an average DH or 1B would be a 6, roughly speaking).
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
First 15 to protect:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SP: Chris Carpenter 22, Roger Clemens 34, Pat Hentgen 28
P: Kelvim Escobar 21, Omar Daal 25, Paul Quantrill 28, Juan Guzman 30
OF: Shannon Stewart 23 5.8, Jose Cruz Jr. 23 5.6, Shawn Green 24 5.7
OF: Rich Butler 23 6.1
IF: Carlos Delgado 25 6.2, Tom Evans 22 4.7
IF: Alex Gonzalez 24 4.0, Jeff Patzke 23 4.7
Probably will lose: Woody Williams 30, or one of the below
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Next 3 to protect:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Carlos Almanzar 23, Dan Plesac 35, Benito Santiago 32 3.6 (*)
Probably will lose: Felipe Crespo 24 4.6, or one of the below
(*) If Arizona already has a decent catcher, then protect Crespo
instead of Santiago, and shift the rest in the order given below.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Final 3 to protect:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ken Robinson 26, Joe Young 21, Tim Crabtree 27
Probably will lose: Marty Janzen 24, or one of the below
(If the process had gone on, my next to protect would have been
Luis Andujar 24, Anthony Sanders 22 4.7, Julio Mosquera 25 4.1,
and Robert Person 27.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Not protected even at the end:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SP: Marty Janzen 24, Luis Andujar 24, Robert Person 27, Erik Hanson 32
SP: (Mark Sievert 24, Huck Flener 28, Derek Brandow 27)
RP: Bill Risley 30, (Mark Lukasiewicz 23, Jim Czajkowski 32)
OF: Anthony Sanders 22 4.7, Robert Perez 28 2.0
OF: (Lorenzo DeLaCruz 25 5.0, Angel Ramirez 24 4.3)
1B: Ryan Jones 22 3.7, (Selwyn Langaigne 21)
2B: Carlos Garcia 29 2.5
SS: Tomas Perez 23 2.0
3B: Ed Sprague 29 3.9
C: Julio Mosquera 25 4.1, Sandy Martinez 24 2.5
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Why?
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To justify some of the choices:
Omar Daal: It seems strange to protect someone who the Expos let other
teams claim because he was getting shelled, but he was great
in Syracuse and then very good for the Jays in September.
Jeff Patzke: Why didn't the Jays call up Patzke in September? He was
already on the 40-man roster. Mariano Duncan was worse than
Carlos Garcia. Maybe the Jays are trying to keep Patzke a
secret from other teams? I protected him over Crespo on the
assumption that Patzke can play the second-base position
adequately, which is where he has played the past couple years
at least.
Rich Butler: I don't have any stats on Butler except for 1997, but he
hit great, and I think his defense is good too. We already
have a good young outfield, but having the 4 outfielders take
turns at DH is a possibility, or we could trade one.
Juan Guzman: At the end of '95 Guzman showed flashes of his old self, so
the Jays kept him, and he was awesome in '96. There isn't the
same encouraging end-of-season evidence this time, and if I had
a discouraging medical report, I'd protect Woody instead.
But he actually didn't pitch that bad last year despite the
shoulder problems, and Arizona has a big budget, so I'd protect
him.
Woody Williams: He's a good pitcher and I'd protect him instead of Guzman
if I had a discouraging medical report on Guzman.
Benito Santiago: Some people don't want to protect him at all, but I have him
in the first 3 to protect after the first round, assuming
Arizona (the rich team) might still be seeking a catcher.
He was the Jays' best hitter in the 2nd-half last year
(a 6.0, which is great for a catcher). I think he has
a good throwing arm. In 1998 he gets a fresh start with
a new manager and I expect him to play hard from the start.
Dan Plesac: I think the concept of having a leftie in the pen is overrated
so I don't mind the risk of losing him in the first round.
However he's still a good pitcher, his K/IP ratio suggests
he has some years left, and he can probably be traded for
prospects if we fall out of the race in '98, so I'd protect him
after the first round (if he's taken instead of Woody, then I'd
protect Woody).
Felipe Crespo: Even though he won the second-base job at the beginning of '96,
he supposedly now is not good enough defensively to play the
position full-time, and on that assumption I'd expose him
instead of Patzke. Crespo is a good hitter but would probably
be average for a third-baseman at best, though that might make
him the best available for an expansion team. He would be a
valuable backup for many positions. If I had a discouraging
medical report on Tom Evans, I'd protect Crespo in the first
15 instead of Evans.
Ken Robinson: He's bounced around so it may seem strange to protect him
after the second round, but he's almost always put up good
numbers and especially so in 1997.
Joe Young: Good K/IP ratio and may be very good if he can find some control.
Tim Crabtree: Was good in '95 and '96 but rocked last year, even after
coming back off the DL. I'm assuming the medical reports
are encouraging enough to not want to leave him unprotected.
Marty Janzen: Pitched well for the Jays in '97 though was awful in Syracuse.
I think he's still a prospect.
Anthony Sanders: Hit 26 HR in Knoxville despite some personal tragedy at the
beginning of the year, but his OBP was not impressive,
and from the few reports I've read I think he's an athlete
who the scouts think can be made into a hitter, which often
doesn't work, so I wouldn't protect him.
Julio Mosquera: He actually hit pretty well in Knoxville last year and may
be the Jays' backup catcher in '98. It wouldn't shock me
if he was taken in the draft. It would be great irony if
the Jays, publicly dissatisfied with their catching, lost
both Santiago and Mosquera on Tuesday. :-)
Robert Person: Useful spare part if healthy but he's never been spectacular
for a sustained period of time and he'll be 28 next year.
Ed Sprague: We'd be lucky if he was drafted away. In his best year (1996)
he was just a 5.1 (yes 36 HR, but an OBP of .325 and BA of .247).
All 3 of Sprague's replacements in 1997 hit better than Sprague
did. The couple of million spent on him could be put to better
use.
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Bibliography
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To prepare this article I looked at numerous sources:
* Lots of stats of course, typically my processed versions posted at
http://www.stephent.com/jays/ but for multi-year stats I often looked at
the STATS Major League Handbook 1997. Syracuse stats are at
http://www.canoe.ca/BaseballIL/stats_il.html and that page has links
to Knoxville and other minor league stats.
* The Baseball Prospectus '97 book had some helpful commentary and stats,
and listed ages for lots of minor league players. Their web site is at
http://www.baseballprospectus.com
* The TruNorth articles at http://www.bccc.com/TruNorth/tnbhome.html
brought some names to my attention which I would otherwise have overlooked,
Larry Hisle's comments at http://www.bccc.com/TruNorth/hisleprospects.html
particularly.
* Just possibly, reading articles on the Jays' list may have influenced me. :-)
--
Stephen Tomlinson http://www.stephent.com/jays/
mailto:comments@stephent.com Ottawa, Ontario
"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
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Last Updated: 1997 Nov 16
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