StephenT's Blue Jays Abstract

"What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" Bill James

All The Jays Teams

Hartsfield: 1977, 1978, 1979
Mattick: 1980, 1981
Cox: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985
Jimy: 1986, 1987, 1988
Cito1: 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993
Cito2: 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997
TJ: 1998
Fregosi: 1999, 2000
Buck: 2001
Tosca: 2002, 2003, 2004
Gibbons: 2005

This Blue Jays Statistical Record reveals that

the Blue Jays had the best pitching in the league in 1982, one year before their first winning season
Ernie Whitt, he of the career .249 batting average, was a better-than-average hitter every year from 1982-89
the Jays' offense collapsed in 1994, contrary to widespread reports that it was the pitching which betrayed the team

For every Blue Jay, the reports include a home-brew calculation of Equivalent Average (EqA), a statistic which

accounts for power, walks and stealing, unlike Batting Average
removes distortions caused by park effects and shifts in annual offense levels.

An EqA of .260 represents average batting performance and .300 represents excellent batting performance every year.

Interpreting Minor League Statistics

Second-base prospect Brent Abernathy hit .328 in Dunedin in '98. Would he have outhit Craig Grebeck if he'd been given a chance with the Jays?

1998 Minor League Jays Stats (includes an estimate of how every Blue Jay Minor Leaguer would have performed in the Majors)
1999 Minor League Jays Stats
2000 Minor League Jays Stats (preliminary)

Predicting the Future

How many games will the Jays win next season? In theory it's impossible to know, but I try anyway:

Jays 2006 Projected Record (written Apr 2/06) (83 wins)
Jays 2005 Projected Record (written Mar 27/05) (I projected 73 wins, and the Jays won 7 more)
Jays 2004 Projected Record (written Apr 4/04) (I projected 87 wins, and the Jays fell 20 short)
Jays 2003 Projected Record (written Mar 30/03) (I projected 85 wins, and the Jays won 1 more)
Jays 2002 Projected Record (written Apr 1/02) (I projected 85 wins, and the Jays won 7 fewer)
Jays 2001 Projected Record (Apr 1/01) (I projected 79 wins, and the Jays won 1 more)
Jays 2000 Projected Record (written Apr 3/00) (I projected 86 wins, but the Jays fell 3 short)
Jays '99 Projected Record (written Mar 27/99) (I projected 88 wins, and the Jays actually won 84)
Jays '98 Projected Record (written Feb 17/98) (I projected 88 wins, and guess what)
Jays '97 Projected Record (written Jan 30/97) (I projected 83 wins, and the Jays actually won 76)

Memorable Games

Most of these links were recently broken by changes to the Retrosheet web site. I hope to update the links soon.

1977

April 7, 1977: The expansion Jays win their first game and hold first place as late as April 14.

1978

June 26, 1978: The 2nd-year Jays beat the Orioles 24-10.

1979

June 29, 1979: Dave Stieb's Major League Debut is a start in Baltimore.
July 9, 1979: In his home debut, Dave Stieb pitches a complete game for his first win.
Aug 25, 1979: The worst game in Jays history.

1980

Aug 29, 1980: Dave Stieb plays his only career inning as an outfielder.

1981

May 15, 1981: A perfect game is thrown against the Jays.

1982

Sept 28, 1982: Jim Clancy has a perfect game going through 8 innings.

1983

Aug 24, 1983: 3 Jays are picked off in the top of the 10th inning.

1984

June 4, 1984: Monday Night Baseball covers the first meeting of the two best teams in baseball, the Tigers and the Jays.

1985

July 29, 1985: Tom Henke's debut as a Blue Jay comes in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game in Baltimore.
Sept 14, 1985: Billy Martin tries both of his closers in the 6th inning in a desperate attempt to stop the Jays; the Yankee owner erupts after the game.
1985 ALCS: Jays vs Royals (linescores only)

1986

July 2, 1986: Jimmy Key faces Red Sox sensation Roger Clemens, who is 14-0.

1987

Oct 3, 1987: The Jays and Tigers, tied for first place with 2 games left in the season, play a 12-inning game.

1988

Sept 24, 1988: Dave Stieb has a no-hitter going with 2 outs in the 9th inning, and a 2-2 count.
Sept 30, 1988: For the 2nd game in a row, Dave Stieb has a no-hitter going with 2 outs in the 9th inning, and a 2-2 count.

1989

June 4, 1989: The Jays trail the Red Sox 10-0 in the top of the 7th, but don't give up.
1989 ALCS: Jays vs A's (linescores only)

1990

Sept 2, 1990: He finally throws the no-hitter.

1991

May 1, 1991: The new-look Jays face the 44-year-old Express.
1991 ALCS: Jays vs Twins (linescores only)

1992

April 6, 1992: The Jays begin their first championship season with a win.
1992 ALCS: Jays vs A's (linescores only)
1992 World Series: Jays vs Braves (linescores only)

1993

August 3, 1993: Tied for 1st place with the Yankees on July 31, the Jays trade to add a new leadoff hitter to their star-studded lineup.
1993 ALCS: Jays vs White Sox (linescores only)
1993 World Series: Jays vs Phillies (linescores only)

1994

April 4, 1994: Carlos Delgado makes the Jays as a left-fielder.

1995

April 26, 1995: Baseball finally returns, but the season opener is not representative of the season.

1996

Sept 29, 1996: Pat Hentgen clinches the Cy Young award in John Olerud's last game as a Blue Jay.

1997

June 30, 1997: The Jays face the Montreal Expos and Pedro Martinez for the first time.
July 12, 1997: The Rocket faces his former team for the first time.

1998

Sept 27, 1998: 21-year-old Roy Halladay has a no-hitter going with 2 outs in the 9th inning.

1999

April 23, 1999: David Wells faces his World Champion former teammates.

2000

June 25, 2000: Carlos Delgado and the first-place Jays face the Red Sox' Pedro Martinez.

2001

April 1, 2001: The Jays open the season in Puerto Rico.

Articles

Murals on SkyDome Wall: The List (written April 24, 2001)
What Every Baseball G.M. Should Know, But Probably Doesn't (outlines what I believe are the most useful discoveries of sabermetrics and how they apply to the Jays; written in July '97)
Who the Jays Should Protect (published two days before the Nov 18/97 Expansion Draft)
How Joe got 102 RBI in 1997 (he had more chances than Ken Griffey Jr.)
1995 League Hitting Stats in One Screen (see at a glance that the Jays' supposedly star-studded lineup was not up to the standards of the rest of the league)
What Happened to the 1994 Jays? (most people blamed all of the decline on injuries to Ward and Cox, but the collapse of the hitting was more costly than the collapse of the bullpen, and John Olerud's decline was the most costly of any player)
Estimated Runs Produced (why ERP is my favorite formula for estimating offense)

Blue Jay Web Ring

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Last Updated: 2006 June 3

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