This article was posted to a Canadian politics mailing list on October 24, 1995, six days before the October 30 referendum.
The referendum question:
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new Economic and Political Partnership, within the scope of the Bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June, 1995?"
If you listen to the media, you get the impression that the question is a fuzzy one. The Yes side says it will result in a new Partnership, while the No side says it means separation since the rest of Canada won't negotiate.
But if you actually read the "Bill" and "agreement" referred to in the question, you discover that whether or not a Partnership is negotiated, a Yes vote means Quebeckers have voted to form a separate country.
For example, the "Bill"'s declaration of sovereignty includes
"We, the people of Quebec, declare it is our will to be in full possession of all the powers of a State: to vote all our laws, to levy all our taxes, to sign all our treaties and to exercise the highest power of all, conceiving, and controlling, by ourselves, our fundamental law."
As for the required offer of Partnership, if you read the intentions of it in the "agreement", the Partnership in the long run wouldn't be much more than a NAFTA-like agreement with a binding dispute settlement mechanism (the main extra is that Quebec hopes for a voice in monetary policy). In the short run, the Partnership would contain agreements on transition issues like dividing federal assets and debts.
Basically Canada and Quebec would be as separate as England and France, with the Partnership (if negotiated) being somewhat analogous to the European Community.
If Canada doesn't negotiate a Partnership to Quebec's satisfaction, the "agreement" says
"If the negotiations prove to be fruitless, the National Assembly will be empowered to declare the sovereignty of Quebec without further delay."
So Partnership or not, a Yes vote authorizes the PQ to separate Quebec from Canada. No further vote necessary.
Of course, nothing in Canadian law gives Quebeckers the right to give this separation authority to the Quebec provincial government. But most Canadians would agree that if Quebeckers really do want to separate, they should be able to. Hopefully we wouldn't have a war working out the details.
The average of the 3 latest polls in Quebec says 44% of respondents would vote Yes, 43% would vote No, the rest are undecided. This is a change from the past few months which had the No side consistently ahead.
However, it appears that a number of Yes voters, enough to decide the vote, don't believe that voting Yes is a vote for separation. It's just a vote for a 'better deal for Quebec'. According to the actual "Bill" and "agreement" referred to in the question, that view is just wrong.
Maybe if the Yes side wins, the feds will argue that a majority of Quebeckers don't really mean to separate, and will try holding their own referendum question. Maybe a new deal for Quebec (as part of Canada) would be offered.
But it's not at all clear that there's enough common ground in the rest of Canada to offer such a new deal. Two recent attempts have failed, after all. The best the feds could do is to offer something that sounds like a great new deal but in substance really isn't. So what's the point of risking a Yes for that?
Meanwhile, the separatist Quebec government would have a Yes to what is clearly written out as separation. It could argue that Canada is not negotiating, declare sovereignty, and not permit Canadians to hold their own referendum vote in its country. It would be a revolution, but one backed with a majority vote. The battle for international recognition would begin.
It's hard to know what a Yes vote will lead to. The people who don't want to separate but are voting Yes are taking a huge gamble.
My own view is that in the long run, day-to-day life will be much the same whatever the outcome of the vote and the aftermath. But for neither Quebeckers nor Canadians would the few benefits of separation (if any, on balance) be worth the significant transition costs. I'm guessing that a majority of Quebeckers will come to that conclusion and vote No on October 30. But if not, I hope at least for peace.
-- Stephen Tomlinson Ottawa, Ontario "What is the evidence, and what does it mean?" (Bill James)
P.S. It boggles the mind that people who want information on the referendum will spend hours watching and reading media coverage over the next week, but will never learn a ton of information they could have by spending an hour reading the "Bill" and "agreement" itself. It is available at http://www.gouv.qc.ca/anglais/premin/premin_comnat.html (Note: this link no longer works; let me know if you can't find copies, and I'll see if I can put them up). The first link (Bill 1) contains both the "Bill" and the "agreement". I found it easiest to skim it, then read it thoroughly in reverse order, i.e. "agreement" first, "Bill" second, flowery preamble last.
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Last Updated: 1997 Mar 31
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