This is the mail I sent to some of my American friends the night of the referendum. They actually seemed appreciative.
The Referendum Question:
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new Economic and Political Partnership, within the scope of the Bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
Say what? I had to read the "Bill" and "agreement" referred to in the question to really understand this. Here is the translation:
Do you agree that Quebec should separate from Canada, after having offered to Canada a NAFTA-like agreement with Quebec?
This really was a separation question. And the polls showed that a clear majority of Quebeckers (60% or so I believe) do not want to separate. Yet the polls showed the Yes with a 53-47 lead going into October 30. The reason is that roughly 1/4 of Yes supporters think that a new Partnership means that Quebec would still be part of Canada, including sending MPs to Ottawa. The Partnership was a diversion put into the question to try to trick non-separatists into supporting it.
It almost worked. The final results were
2,361,526 No, 2,308,028 Yes.
50.57% No, 49.43% Yes.
A difference of 53,498 votes out of 4,669,554, less than the number of spoiled ballots, I believe. The turnout was 93.5%. It was the first vote I'd seen where they started following the results to two decimal places.
The vote seemed even closer when watching on TV. When I got home at 8:52pm, the Yes was leading with 51.8%, with 12% of the polls counted. I thought that was it, the Yes was going to win. But then I learned that the Montreal votes were slower to come in, apparently because the line-ups were so long that the polls were kept open past 8pm to let everyone vote. So the Montreal results came in later:
8:15pm 59.1% Yes, 40.9% No, 0.2% of polls 8:20pm 57.0% Yes, 43.0% No, 0.3% of polls 8:25pm 55.5% Yes, 44.5% No, 0.5% of polls 8:30pm 56.1% Yes, 43.9% No, 0.8% of polls 8:35pm 53.6% Yes, 46.4% No, 1.6% of polls 8:40pm 52.8% Yes, 47.2% No, 3.1% of polls 8:52pm 51.8% Yes, 48.2% No, 12.2% of polls <--I get home and see this 9:00pm 50.7% Yes, 49.3% No, 20.1% of polls 9:15pm 50.6% Yes, 49.4% No, 39.9% of polls 9:30pm 50.14% Yes, 49.86% No, 60.4% of polls 9:33pm 50.00% No, 50.00% Yes, 64.7% of polls <--first time No ahead 9:45pm 50.18% No, 49.82% Yes, 76.8% of polls 10:00pm 50.19% No, 49.81% Yes, 88.3% of polls >11pm 50.57% No, 49.43% Yes, 100% of polls
The Quebec premier in his speech afterward said (in French) things like 60% of "us" (French-speaking Quebeckers) voted Yes. "We were beaten by money and the ethnic vote." "We've been delayed, but not for long." "The 60-61% who voted Yes will change to 63-64%, and that will be it". It was very embarrassing. Even most separatists were appalled. A premier is a premier of all Quebeckers.
The good news is that as of midnight, there hadn't been any serious violence. A few arrests here and there was all I'd heard of.
The future is unclear. It looks like the separatists think they are very close and will try to hold another referendum as soon as possible. But it was through confusion and claiming to be a panacea for the poor that they got as close as they did, so it's not clear they will ever win.
Canada has recently been through two rounds of "constitutional negotiations" which failed to achieve anything. The latter had a nation-wide referendum in 1992 in which most of the country voted No to the changes. It's not clear a solution that a majority of the country can agree to will ever be found.
So it looks like Canadian politics will continue to be dominated by constitution/decentralization/language/referendum issues. Neverendum, as one pundit put it.
-StephenT
Link to more detailed referendum question analysis
Access count for this page:
Last Updated: 1997 Mar 31
Comments are welcome at comments@stephent.com.